wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
|
|
No, there hasn't.
There was a shift SOUTH yesterday afternoon at the 5pm, then an extension of the previous at 11pm, followed by what can be argued as a shift n at 5, and now a real shift N at 11A...but to say that over the last day there is a northward trend with each advisory is plain wrong.
Rabbit, you may end up being right about the eventual track...but don't make stuff up to try and prove it! 
--------------------
Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:35 AM)
|
ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
|
|
I agree with who posted that Wednesday or Thursday will be the day that direction will bein position with the models. This is just my opinion. Now approaching the area of PR. I think everyone from Maine to Mexico need to stay alert of this hurricane.
--------------------
Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Frances track
|
meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
|
|
your funny, im pointing out diffrences and this a strong cat. 4
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
|
|
The eye is starting to take a nice round shape, and we will see a borderline cat 5 soon...
direction is Miami, then onto Mobile...
there is no trend north yet. If and when the hurricane slows down a little, then and only then will a definite shift in the direction occur.
Silly to even think about the models. they are all different, and NO ONE knows what this will do..
I will go with my gut feel...
Miami, and a cat 4-5 at landfall, then into the gulf for more hankey pankey....
RICK! We have a serious situation here. It's not funny anymore! Please don't make me start editing...
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:41 AM)
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
just remember Floyd didnt turn until early morning on the 14th of Sep 1999
Frances is still 4 days out before it nears Florida
|
SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
Quote:
It would be cool if you could update this based on the 11AM forecast track.
Thanks!
Done!
|
AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
|
|
Forgot to post this with my reply. A good site for checking out troughs, ridges, etc.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/
--------------------
Check the Surf
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Rabbit...two things:
(1) Florida is NOT out of the woods at all. If you look at the "projected path" Florida is most certainly under the gun whether you go to the left or the right of the cone. The is not saying anything close to what you're stating.
2) Your statement that the path has been consistently shifting to the north with each run is incorrect. Yesterday it shifted north in the morning, at 5pm it was back south again, then it was about the same at 11pm. At 5:00am this morning it was still to the left, and at 11am today it shifted right. There's no trend to the north in any of those tracks. The only ABSOLUTE thing you can say is that the path has had Florida under the gun since we started getting closer to the US.
There's no evidence yet of a turn to N, or even the WNW. I just watched News Channel 8 and the met wasn't all that excited about the new track, which tells me no one really has a lot of confidence in the models---which are all over the place with this one-- at this point in time. I'd like to say he's really bored by this hurricane but I don't think that's the reason he's not putting a lot of emphasis on it.
When you write stuff, try to be accurate. People new to this board may look at just one or two posts and think that they are either going to get whacked or they're in the clear. A good rule of thumb when saying "we're in the clear" is this:
UNTIL IT PASSES YOUR LAT/LON POSITION, YOU ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
scottsvb1
Unregistered
|
|
ok slowly starting to come in. Will analize the plots for this over next 30 min. Funny how to start already, just 12hours out or say really 8hours this has at 21n almost.
I think its about .5 above from where it should be.
|
Tom-Ormond Bch
Unregistered
|
|
Sigh, I reluctantly agree Jason, but sure want to be hopeful about a Floyd-like "miss". We are just so stressed out here from aftermath. That said, I guess I will go back to boarding up. I am directly on Intercoastal Waterway and can see condos on beach from my front yard. So we will be in Evac zone if needed-hence my hurry to finish. Got the east side done. Working on north now.
My Lowe's was totally sold out of many items last night and there was a long line for 15 generators on a truck. People here are definitely in prep mode. I wanted Plylox clips but they were long gone.
Maybe I will lose some weight out of all this!
Tom- Ormond Beach/Volusia County
|
StormLover
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
|
|
I totally agree. I see no northward trend at all looking at any radar loops. My gut tells me that will hit between central and south Florida as a strong Category 4. I think the ridge of high pressure currently over the Atantic will keep it well to the south of Georgia or the Carolinas.
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
while i am not going to say where landfall will be it is moving due west this morning. if it doesn't start the northern turn soon models or not it is gonna come toward fla. even if landfall is in the s/c n/c area if it gets close enough to the coast of fla. before the north turn its effects will be felt. so all that think fla is outta of the woods on this one, don't bet the farm yet.
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Re: ' track: stop looking at the  symbol and start looking at the cone. Now you tell me what that tells you.
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
mikeG
Unregistered
|
|
here is where most of the gps drops were taking yesterday, and i guess the models are picking up on weaking ridge
noaa plane is staying in Barbados, due to St. Croix too close to storm
|
scottsvb1
Unregistered
|
|
GFS 24 hrs out now or say 20 hours it has near 22N and 70W . Hmm 2 deg north in 20 hours? This wnw track better start in next 6 hours or less.This comes out to about .5 per 6 hours now on the first 24 hour run.
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
|
|
Thanks :
This should tell all of us that even if the storm was to follow this path we will need to implement Plan B and board up ; many communities will feel hurricane and trpoical storm winds all over the Florida east coast.
But this is only a point based on a calculation. Tomorrow evening we will know where the storm is truly going because of the narrowed dreaded cone of fear..  .
--------------------
________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
I am not basing my forecast entirely on the model, and the model shift is not necessarily based solely on the official forecast, but the fact that most of the models have been shifting east slightly with each run
I have been tracking since Andrew, and am well aware that you are still in the threat area if it is not north of you, but I am making forecasts that I feel confident in, and I am still confident that it will turn north before getting here. Everyone needs to remember that these are the 5-day forecasts we are seeing, and that the admits that there are extremely large errors involved. Also, as for it not turning north yet, remember Bonnie and Isabel--they both headed due west towards Florida, and turned north rather quickly
My guess is 30-60 miles offshore, moving in a NW to NNW direction by Saturday
I am well aware that the track could shift to the west again, but it could also shift further east.
As for preparedness, I have an emergency hurricane kit that is always stocked with the supplies needed. The only preparing at the moment is to have the supplies that are good to have at the beginning of the season.
|
Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
|
|
Frances might be starting her northward turn. On the sat loops she appears to be moving just north of west in the last half of the loop. This may just be stair stepping, but it might be a new trend
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
Edited by Lisa NC (Tue Aug 31 2004 11:55 AM)
|
Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
|
|
Frances forecast track with wind
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
