danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
You probably can't get the roof fixed before , and depending on where she makes landfall it might be a waste of time and money. My suggestion would be to use "salvage covers". These can be anything that won't let water pass thru. The blue, brown and other color tarps they sell are okay. But that could get expensive. A roll or two of good 10mil or thicker polyproplene(sp) clear or black plastic will work and can be cut to fit each item.
*skwirt79 and others. We can send you Private Messages, if you will register* it's free!
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:34 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
The 5AM Advisories are out and can be viewed under the "CurrentStorms" heading on the left sidebar.
REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 68.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 935 MB.
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 04:45 AM)
|
Orlando
Unregistered
|
|
RIght now by the models it look like its going to go right over Orlando. Defiently not the news I wanted to hear about this monster. 
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Here are the 2 web sites I got the information from with quotes exactly from each web site. Yes, it has to be a major in the box and at landfall in S. FL. Only 2 majors ever to hit S.FL. missed the box, Andrew barely and the '35 storm. And if it is a major to miss the box it also almost always misses S. FL.
1-It's called the Hebert Square. Almost every Atlantic storm that has struck Southeast Florida as a major hurricane has gone through this small box in the ocean, and almost every major storm, of at least 111 mph, that has bypassed it has missed South Florida.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html
2-Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Bch Counties.
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator
Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
|
|
One thing I have noticed is that almost every forecast has shown that the cain is suppossed to start a more northerly jaunt (45 degrees or so) but it has yet to do so. This is making me suspicious that the models have this cain too far north as many have suggested.
7 days before hit I called for a Tampa hit. I was wrong by 40 miles. I couldn't get a feel on until now - I think she is heading more south than we think - Miami to WBP. I think that the postor whose friend is retired from NOAA that posted here 3 days ago is going to be correct..
Miami to Ft. Meyers or WPB to Sarasota.. hooks right and up the Gulf.
Last night channel 10 news showed a graphic with the then current track heading towards JAX that Tampa would still see 85 - 100 mph winds. I think 110 - 130 is going to be more like it and if we see the west side of the storm and it slows to make it's turn, we might see some 10 feet of water here on the beaches too. I posted this earlier (thanks to Phil's help in me finding it) and will do so again - it shows the water surge in the Tampa area based on the size of the cain: http://nauticalcharts.noaa.gov/bathytopo/visual/slosh.mov (you will need quicktime to see it)
I'm boarding up and outta here. Stay safe everyone.
|
Lila
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
|
|
New to the board. Can't sleep in Melbourne. How does Tampa look as an evac plan? If exited FL there, what Category might it be expected to be, do you think?
(Mods, is this an appropriate place for this post?)
|
Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
|
|
Anybody have the 5AM track?
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
The NWS has not updated their 5am track as of yet. I found this on the net, you can take it for what it is worth:
5 am track Sept 1
Quote:
Anybody have the 5AM track?
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
Very interesting and informative article. Thanks for posting it.
1-It's called the Hebert Square. Almost every Atlantic storm that has struck Southeast Florida as a major hurricane has gone through this small box in the ocean, and almost every major storm, of at least 111 mph, that has bypassed it has missed South Florida.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/weather/special/storm/reports/070603box.html
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
Shawn W.
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 23
Loc: Charleston, S.C.
|
|
Thanks. I'll watch my local news in about 15 minutes and let you know if this is correct.
|
Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
|
|
That track does seem to reflect the 5am discussion...unfortunately.
Looking at a couple model and WV loops this morning doesn't give me much confidence in the SE US ridge causing a more northward direction any time soon.
Could someone explain the significance of concentric eyewalls?
Does it affect intensity only?
|
recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Here's the url to a satellite loop where you can watch the storm's eye on its Florida approach:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_29/anis.html
--Lou
|
Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
|
|
Quote:
That track does seem to reflect the 5am discussion...unfortunately.
Looking at a couple model and WV loops this morning doesn't give me much confidence in the SE US ridge causing a more northward direction any time soon.
Could someone explain the significance of concentric eyewalls?
Does it affect intensity only?
VERY intense hurricane, 'healthy' and changing rapidly, possibly upward. The OUTER wall is the strongest according to the 5am NCH release I just received E-mail. If you are *anywhere* within the projected center 35 miles (or so) of center, consider evacuation unless you are well away from the ocean or bodies of water. Certainly, prepare for the worst as it will likely remain a III or low IV even in places well inland, such as Orlando.
--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
|
FLWaiting
Unregistered
|
|
The just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html
|
LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
|
|
The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:) Do any other Floridians feel the same way?
Quote:
The just updated their track:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html
--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
|
Orlando
Unregistered
|
|
A Cat. 3 or 4 or Orlando?? Right now there saying it to be a cat. 2. Cat. 3 or 4 would be totally devastating here. Especially since all the trees have been weakened by , its just not a good situation.
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
Here's a link that may help you on the eyewall question.
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/papers/MERS2004_26HURR.pdf
http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0006.htm
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 01 2004 07:28 AM)
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
The track has changed very little since the 11pm track. Possibly moving a bit more toward the center of the state northward along I-75. This is better for Ormond Beach.
You have to expect the track to change slightly as the adjusts it based on the most current information.
Everyone in Central and North Central Florida needs to prepare.
I fear flooding as well as wind damage from .
Make your plans now rather than later.
|
Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
|
|
Quote:
The constant change of the projected path is driving me crazy.....:)
You get used to it...I'm sure it will change much more before it's over.
--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48
|
Chad
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 22
Loc: Citrus County, Fla.
|
|
Interesting article...Thanks!
--------------------
Chad
28.97
82.48
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
