alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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Great information and I will defer to those web sites.
I should have checked more info before posting something like that.
Sorry.
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Redbird
Unregistered
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I know you were warning us things we had not thought of. It will be a mess one or another.
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Pam in Vero
Unregistered
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This guy is good he has been forcasting in this area for a long time. He was around even as far back as Andrew. You can get regular updates from him at IRCES.com if you sign up he will email you with the latest including maps. The joke around here is "when he takes his tie off it's serious" Well he is on our local county station right now with his tie off.
-----Original Message-----
From: Nate McCollum
Sent: Wednesday, September 01, 2004 1:49 PM
To: Weather Alerts
Subject: Prepare Now For Hurricane
The time of tracking Hurricane is over and the time for preparing has started. Hurricane will be making landfall somewhere along the east coast on Saturday. The current wind field timing will be as follows:
Saturday-3-am tropical storm winds begin
Saturday-5-am-high end tropical storm force winds-hurricane force winds
Saturday8am-2:00pm-Most intense winds of this system will occur
Saturday 2:00pm -7:pm-Winds will reduce.
This is the best time line at this time. This will change as the forecast changes. It is unknown if we will have the most intense winds, but we need to plan for this. The ridge remains in place and there is no doubt in my mind that we will have hurricane force winds.
Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.
This is a serious situation. If this system makes landfall near Indian River County, it will be the strongest hurricane in our area in history. If you stay at home, make sure your structure is safe for the most intense winds.
This is a serious situation and everyone should be prepared for an extreme event.
Nathan McCollum
Indian River County Emergency Management
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obshaz
Unregistered
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We will definitely tell family if we go and we will go if they tell us to get out. We are well inland so we don't have to depend on bridges and we have a straight shot to 95 so we're okay that way. We're just not sure whether we should stay and ride it out or leave.
We're well prepared, even got an axe, chainsaw, plenty of propane and canned food. Got 9 gas tanks and we're ready to go so ... what kind of winds are we looking at for the ob area?
Thanks!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Note: I reduced the number of posts showed per page to help with bandwidth.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 011859
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/1859Z
B. 21 DEG 53 MIN N
70 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2565 M
D. 80 KT
E. 244 DEG 019 NM
F. 333 DEG 111 KT
G. 245 DEG 017 NM
H. 941 MB
I. 9 C/ 3110 M
J. 17 C/ 3104 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C32
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A OB 13
MAX FL WIND 120 KT NW QUAD 1729Z.
****i think 32 is the biggest yet...this would go with a eye replac... durning noon today....
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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I know Max Mayfield is very good and is emphasizing the power of the hurricane, but IR images (nd ) show the convection has weakened considerably since this morning, and she's looking rather ragged. Is this really part of the EWR, or lack of SW inflow due to her being north of the DR....or just plain weakening??? 
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alan
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
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It also looks like the storm is becoming elongating with a north/south look.
That usually signals a turn, but I would like to know what others think.
Look at the Water Vapor Loop from the front page.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Also heard on the radio, evacuation for the barrier islands in Brevard County(Merritt Island, etc.) I believe they said tomorrow at 2pm.
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Check the Surf
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looks to still be wobbling along at around 285-290 degrees or so, still basically wnw, with a couple wobbles to the wnw then nw then w.. I would say it is still averaging out to be a WNW overall motion... from what I can tell on the IR loop, speed looks about the same as well... I do see the enlongation that you mentioned but I do not see a NW component as such... not yet at least
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Earlier in the day a user wanted a source to determine their coordinates. We have created a cool tool for this purpose. Search over 43,000 Zip Codes. Returns the geographic center of any Zip Code.
Find it here:
SkeetoBite.com
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SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
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Thanks Skeeto.......This happy gal is getting very nervous....going home to put up shutters tonight...getting scared down here at the north end of east broward county.
God bless us all
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think she still looking healthy with still good outflow on the WV imagine.I would say that some eyewall replacment this afternoon but the shape seems to be changing some .The storm regaining her shape the ULL to the W is all but gone.She looks thou as if this will most likely keep moving for awhile at 280.The LBAR is on track wiyh this one and so is the .Frances falls on the lowest side of the track.
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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the 2 pm advisory had it at
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST
So what gives?? is it backing up?
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Martha
Unregistered
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I'm new to Florida and I'm still trying to recover from . Should I be worried about ? I really don't know a thing about hurricanes so my instinct is to freak. Any information/advice anyone could offer in leyman's terms would be great. Thanks
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Check it again, Steve. It's not on the wane. I'm still trying to find out an answer as to whether or not to get that generator. Any ideas? Anyone?
Frankly, I'd get it, now, not later. Even if you evac, when you get back it could be days or weeks before power is available....if it misses you, you have one for those times 'normal' storms hit... Problem: Probably none are available anywhere now, but if you get lucky, DO IT!
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Frances is not weakening in any significant amount...the eyewall replacement cycle disrupted her briefly, but the last few images she seems to be gathering herself back together. I see the pinching or elongation, and I think that the west side is "feeling" the remnants of that ULL...
The last frame or two of the vis's seem to imply a slightly more N jog, but this could be due to the refomation cycle...we need a few more frames of imagery to know if this is the beginning of a NW turn...if this is not the beginning of the turn, it needs to start really soon to get the more northerly tracks to verify.
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Jason Kelley
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Lindsey
Unregistered
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Osceola County Schools closed on friday
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Quote:
the 2 pm advisory had it at
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST
So what gives?? is it backing up?
Not sure what you mean by "backing up". The previous coordinates, at 11AM, were 21.7n/69.8w. Definitely still moving forward.
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Check the Surf
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I'm new to Florida and I'm still trying to recover from . Should I be worried about ? I really don't know a thing about hurricanes so my instinct is to freak. Any information/advice anyone could offer in leyman's terms would be great. Thanks
Freak, then calm down and evaluate your situation. My suggestion, Leave for Savannah tonight, head for points west or north if it turns toward Savannah. I'm serious, if you do not have to be in Central or S Central Florida, leave while the leaving is good. If you can't leave or you live in a fort or are 'near the edge', take all of the reccommended precautions, get and store drinking water, batteries, candles, matches, clothes and blankets if you have to abandon (get them in the car...during the storm is a bad time for packing)get your stuff ready. Good luck.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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