MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10pm
A few of the models trended right, but the consensus still keeps it on track currently. More to come at 11PM.
Original Update
Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
The 5PM National Hurricane Center update is out, and they have kept the track similar to what they had earlier, which is forcing hard decisions for evacuation orders.
The Florida State Superensemble model still puts the storm through Florida, while two others GFL and slow it down and turn it more northward. So, unfortunately, confidence in the track is still low. Watches aren't up for Florida yet, but I imagine they would be by 11PM tonight. It is important to note that most of the models still do take it in across Florida.
Image thanks to Skeetobite
How strong the current ridge remains is what may or may not drive inward across Florida. Time will tell, and fluctuations in intensity may happen. 11PM will be telling.
Some other notes include a possible tightening up of the windfield, as found by recon, and perhaps a slight elongation on satellite imagery.
County By County Info: (Updated as received.. in alpha order-- click on county name for County EM website) Updated: 5:12PM
Please use Local Media for the absolute latest information!
Brevard: Brevard County will issue a Mandatory evacuation beginning 2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 2, for the following areas:
* Barrier Islands, including Merritt Island
* Mobile, manufactured homes countywide
* All primary evacuation shelters (listed in the phone book, page 55) will open at 2 p.m. Thursday Sept. 2
Indian River: Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.
Flagler:
A voluntary evacuation of the area east of I-95, mobile homes and homes in flood prone and low lying areas in Flagler County will go into effect at noon Thursday.
Lake:: School Closed Friday
Martin: plans to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow.
Orange: School Closed Friday
Osceola: School Closed Friday
Palm Beach: Mandatory Evacuations for Barrier Islands and lowlying areas begin tomorrow 2PM.. some may start earlier. School half day Thursday, closed Friday
Seminole: School Closed Friday
St. Lucie: Click link for updates. Announcements tomorrow AM.
Volusia: Community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
Request for info (With source) for these type of announcements!
Please listen to local media for updated information on these areas.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Everyone is starting to harp on a NW turn, but look at the trends the last 24 - 48 hours, its been wobbling and stair stepping. Probably not a turn occurring. Also the eye has just tightened up alot compared to earlier and that for sure gave it the appearence of a Northward jog. Im not buying yet, Im saying landfall near West Palm Beach, or maybe just slightly farther north as a Cat 4.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Crazy day. Seen it wobble some west. Have the eye possibly reform north. Heard it was in fluctuating mode going to Cat 5..then heard was weakening. Seems a lot of rumors and intangibles.
Following discussion from .
No warnings or watches up tomorrow as of yet in South Florida but schools have been cancelled in some counties and other city jobs on short day schedules.
Looking foward to seeing what people think as the evening progresses.
Meanwhile..Frances goes steadily wnw.. calling for a slowdown somewhere..waiting.
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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I just spoke to my mom in Vero Beach. She said that people are starting to go into panic mode. She said that people have been fighting in home depot over batteries, ply wood, etc. Ya'll be careful down there.
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Kelly
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Anyone tend to agree that this has been one of the more aggravating storms to track? Its causing me to go crazy, I cant concentrate in school. LOL But at least one of my teachers (Marine Bio) loves tropical weather. We get to watch videos and discuss what might happen, especially this week so far. I love it. Looks like I may end up sick tomorrow and Friday (wink wink)  So no school for me.
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Alex K.
Unregistered
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Well, my high school (on orange/Seminole Border) cancelled school friday. This storm isnt weakening, isnt strengthening, its just remaining monstrous. Frankly, Im more concerned about the damage here in Orlando than I was about .
As if anyone cares, a new invest is out on 98 in the east atlantic.
And to think that it isnt even the midpoint of the season yet!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Anyone tend to agree that this has been one of the more aggravating storms to track?
Droop, I couldn't agree more and I think so too would a lot on this board.
I was holding off making a "forecast" and I still will, but I still believe there are 3 equally viable end games for .
(1) The climo/history end game: This storm is a classic longtracking CV storm. Historically, although usually at a slightly higher lattitude, they pull a "Floyd". Scare the hell out of FL and bolt for Hattaras. GFL & GDFL still hinting at the FL miss. has been performing extremely well this year.
(2) forecast. The most likely track and the reason they are sticking with it at this point. EC FL hit then into GA. Wouldn't bet against this one for the moment.
(3) Southern surprise. Ridge builds in back strongly and forces across FL and into the GOM. IMHO (not a forecast, yet) least likely scenario, but possible.
I think these three scenarios will still be viable tonight, and I'll give my crow munching forecast at that time.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Looks like this is back on a Westward Track.. Did anyone see the eye get more defined in the past few frames, also looks much larger.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Watching the last hour and fifty minutes of the vis loop has in my opinion a more northerly component than earlier today, but it is not moving NW... most of the day she was moving around 285-290 degress at best.... for the past two hours I would estimate her motion at around ~295 but no more than 300 degrees.... now she may stay on this course, or perhaps go back to a more wnw course or even go NW, I don't know, all I know is what I've seen of late...
8 minute update... a little more west wobble.... looks to be overall wnw again .... wobbles can drive a sane person crazy.... boy but what greats sat pixs from ....
Edited by Frank P (Wed Sep 01 2004 09:56 PM)
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I was reading the last thread just a few minutes ago and I noticed that a few people were talking about the NW'erly motion that was taking place. Looks like that was just a wobble:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
As you can see at the end of the loop, a more westerly jog has just taken place.
On to the next round of fun...the amplification that is currently moving eastward over the eastern US this evening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
It looks to me as if this amplification is going to be heading out the door overnight tonight. When you combine this with latest westerly jog, I am beginning to lose hope for a turn towards the NW. If this storm was still moving NW in the last few frames of the first loop I posted, then I would be a bit more optimistic for a turn.
It almost seems to me as if the storm is "correcting" itself; staying near the latest track. Floridians, be prepared, regardless of what happens.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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based on sat/recon....the last 6 hrs she went through a eye wall replacement of some sort....and some of the cloud tops appeared to cover the eye and gave a smaller look on vis, but now it is clearing and looks to be expanding.....note recon had 938mb....and had a 32m wide eye...now its back to 30 at last check....stills looks to be on same course of 290 wnw....
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Forecasters in Orlando (Channel 9 ) showed the trough that is suppose to weaken the Ridge, but it has flattened, so he thinks this is not going to break the ridge down.. WE can only hope, but he states its not looking like it will..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I agree.... and was posting on what the perception of the motion was for the past 110 minutes or so.... looks back WNW to me
Edited by Frank P (Wed Sep 01 2004 09:59 PM)
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Robert
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 364
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Holly $^|# You Want to talk about a headache of a storm you people have no idea......
Here in Stuart fl 27.10n 80.10w........ Plywood is now a rare comodity. Almost all the gas stations are out of fuel, Generators,batteries,flash lights,stove fuel are non exsistant, and People are starting to scream and shout and get into fights to top it all off. Ropes for boats are no longer available same with anchors and chain. Luckly I have all my rope and chain and anchors for my boat already. Old timers think its coming and new timers are confused and scared. Me i dont even want to look at it im getting my boat ready and thats all i can think about right now. These N wobles,and west jogs just make me want to scream.
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Janill
Unregistered
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Hello,
We are located in Sebring. Anyone care to comment on what we could expect if makes landfall around Brevard?
I live in a two story home, so that is somewhat concerning in itself to me.
Thanks
Jan
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Weren't we doing the same thing yesterday around this time? I'm ready to turn off the TV and just wait and see wait happens on Saturday.
We've got the met at ABC News Station here in TB telling us that TAMPA BAY WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL HURRICANE STRENGTH WINDS with this storm. He's also saying he think's this will do a Floyd turn ...which he claims is a good possibility in "his own opinion". He beginning to annoy the heck out of me. Like a mosquito, I'm gonna slap him.
Is there a possibility of NW turn and a Floyd scenario? He was talking to a reporter who was at the and he asked if they were wearing their "game faces". She replied, "Well, there was only one time that I've seen Max Mayfield smile today, and that was when they postponed putting the watches up at 5pm." Now he just said, "We're looking at landfall sometime around 2pm TUESDAY." WHAT????? 
Then I turn on Channel 8, and the chief met there is saying that "we are absolutely NOT out of the woods."
So which is it? Are we out of the wood or aren't we? I know it's hard to tell at this time, but I wish ABC News 28 would figure out what they're doing.
Polk County Schools are being closed on Friday, mostly because they will be used as shelters.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Here in Atlanta, Channel 2 the sister station of Channel 9 in Orlando is really harping on this storm, It's been the lead story at 12, 5 and now at 6, and the lead anchor said it best..."a very, very scary storm" and they're forecasting the remnants to hit here late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Also, the FEMA Southeastern HQ is up and in full activation and will be running 24 hours beginning tomorrow at 7am and they're talking about Ga Power sending crews down to Orlando to assist clean-up.
Also, Delta and Air-Tran are cancelling flights to the Bahamas and we could see a cancellation spate in Florida as early as late tomorrow night.
And it looks like the 1st ACC game -Miami may be postponed from Monday night to 9/11, the Fla State League has postponed it's East Division Playoffs ....
For those of us not in Florida, definately call any relatives or friends in Florida and get them to get out, or go by an area Publix and donate to the American Red Cross or go on line at www.redcross.org or 1-800-GIVE-LIFE, and finally send up a few prayers for everyone in the bulls-eye in Florida....
God Speed Sunshine State 
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I'm here in Sebring too, and getting more worried by the second. Don't know what to expect, but whatever we get is sure to be worse than .
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When it rains, it pours...
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luki
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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things are getting pretty crazy here in jax,stores are packed,hardly anything left on the shelves at least in the store i was in anyhow.5 pm news announced Duval and St.Johns county schools will be closed friday,Flagler County schools are closed thurs and friday,emergency management says it will decide tommorrow if evacuations will take place, if so evac. will start friday. im not looking for a direct hit but by the way this track seems we may be in for a bumpy ride
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john03
Unregistered
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Quote:
Now he just said, "We're looking at landfall sometime around 2pm TUESDAY." WHAT?????
who said that?
if did, then maybe there thinking a stall?
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