Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Very interesting section of the discussion...still very concerned down here in Ft. lauderdale
"The Gulfstream-IV jet and an afres c-130
have been releasing dropsondes around the periphery of . The
sonde data has produced some interesting and disturbing results.
The height data for the various pressure levels...compared to 18Z
surrounding upper-air data...appear to be at least 20 meters too
low. However...the wind data clearly indicate a mid-tropospheric
high pressure center near 30n 75w...or about 500 nmi northwest of
Frances with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward across North
Florida and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the short term...
this would suggest that should continue moving at 295 or
even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so. Also...00z
upper-air data indicate that the 18Z and 12Z UKMET models
have verified the 00Z 500 mb ridge and heights the best...while the
18z and models were much too weak...at least 20 meters too
low...with the strength of the ridge. Since the 00Z model runs will
have the new GPS dropsonde data included in those runs for the 06Z
advisory...no significant change is being made to the previous
forecast track. However...with high pressure located to the
northwest of ...I would not be surprised to the 00Z model
tracks shift a little more westward."
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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""Frances has been moving west-northwestward for the past 24 hours under the influence of the subtropical ridge to the north...which is expected to remain intact through at least 48 hours.""
""In the short term...this would suggest that should continue moving at 295 or even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so""
""However...with high pressure located to the northwest of ...I would not be surprised to the 00Z model tracks shift a little more westward....""
These three statements DO NOT BODE well at all for the State of Florida.... I don't think this will be a Floyd redo...
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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So...am I to understand from the 11pm discussion that they are now acknowledging that the and models have been flawed in their Northward implication?
--Lou
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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If you look at the track, a wobble to the left a little and South Fl could have hurricane force winds.. So I think its better to error on the side of caution.
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looking at the Water Vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
The outflow on the west side of the storm, which had been restricted much of the day, is becoming re-established.....another foreboding of further intensification.
--Lou
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Now I am confused
The *models* shifted right but the strike probabilities are the same as they were this afternoon.
Someone, please unconfuse me.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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BabyCat,
The models mentioned shifting right are already off and too far north, the new init from the Gulfstream jet is why those are being ignored now.
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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I will try to provide some model updates here over the next few days. Just please don't ask me how i'm getting the info . Thanks HCW
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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OK, that's now good enuf for moi. Tomorrow the "Phil's crow Munching Forecast" but for tonight...
FL hit. (Sorry y'all). Too much data shows such.
GOM? No.
Will have an intensity & landfall forecast tomorrow. Early guess...still somewhere near Melbourne, CAT IV (yikes!).
To anyone in the "Cone", think about moving to (a) an inland hotel, (b) another state, (c) higher ground (in FL?) or (d) your nearest shelter...have the car gassed up and ready to go and your homeland security up NOW!
Everyone try to be smart and be safe.
The $100 billion question now is exact landfall and intensity...
Godspeed florida, godspeed... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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My advice? Don't...unless you want someone to lose their job. That info is closely held for a reason, and unless someone volunteers it to us, we are not on the need to know list.
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Jason Kelley
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I can't emphasize how huge the heights being too low is to the forecast. The /GFDL track which were always nonsensical to me, now make perfect sense...and they are based on faulty data. The data that didn't have the dropsondes in it has been more reliable, and it makes perfect sense now why.
I am now thinking more and more that this thing may get in the GOM (sorry Phil)....
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Jason Kelley
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Jason and/or Clark On stewarts discussion it kinda threw me off,, Do the 0z runs of the already have the new data? or will it be in the 6Z???
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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As fast as you were to target NC as your forecast..... don't be to quick to count out the GOM either Mr. Phil... it was never my forecast (GOM) but these things always have a surprise or two for us... IF the ridge remains firm for a extra 12-24 hours beyond the extended forcast, could very well put this thing into the NE GOM... and this has been alluded to by several professional mets thoughout the past couple of days.... time will tell....
one other thing, never surrender until ya have too....hehe....
and use some pineapples with that grilled crow.. gives it a tropical flavor.... if it makes it to the GOM then its a another helping of crow for ya to.... LOL
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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According to the 11pm forecast...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
My question is where will the warnings be posted? 
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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HCW
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
According to the 11pm forecast...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
My question is where will the warnings be posted?
5am tomorrow if it stays at 16 mph wnw
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
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Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Then I guess the landfall is going to be earlier than predicted?
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Lil Phil, Not to be rude or anything as you are much older and wiser then me but I dont agree with you saying the Gulf isnt a possibility for a second landfall. You said if your in the cone, Be prepared. Clearly the has alot of the GC in the cone so i dont think anyone along the gulf should let their guard down until passes. Again not being rude, just makin sure nobody gets caught off guard, know what Im saying? Anyways, keep up the great post and moderating. Cheers
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Seele
Unregistered
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The 11PM forecast discussion is not good news for Florida...they are saying the models pointing to the north are incorrect based on their current reconnaissance readings and that for now, 140 MPH winds is probably a low estimate.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020225.shtml?
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The Melbourne Weather Service has just issued an Inland Hurricane Watch for Saturday covering all of Central Florida. The local Met on Orlando television just displayed a graphic anticipating 100mph PLUS winds sustained in Orange and Seminole counties for Saturday. As I live in Seminole County, this is shaping up to be a nightmare scenario for me. My neighborhood is still buried under Hurricane debris. In fact, just this evening, I drove through the mobile home community that runs adjacent to my street. There is STILL large metal sections of these mobile homes dangling high up in the trees. I shudder to imagine what will become of this debris in 100mph + winds.
A number of homes on my street have already boarded their windows (myself included). That is a huge departure from pre-Charley preparations...which were nearly nonexistent.
--Lou
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> I am now thinking more and more that this thing may get in the GOM (sorry Phil)....
>>> be to quick to count out the GOM either Mr. Phil
>>> Lil Phil, Not to be rude or anything as you are much older and wiser then me but I dont agree with you saying the Gulf isnt a possibility for a second landfall.
You guys are placing WAY too much faith in little ol' me. Two posts ago I said three possibilties...SFL->GOM; EC FL into GA, and Turn to north.
I wanted to try to narrow it down, and that was the elimination of the GOM & north theories...not at ALL saying no to anything yet...that's what's so frustrating.
Still will stick by no gulf hit, but is that set in stone? NO WAY.
This is going to drive us all NUTS for the next 24-48 hours.
Right now, I'm looking for some experts like Rabbit & scottsvb to post...they will have more answers than I do.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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