rjp
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Charleston, SC
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Good thing I purchased some things today. May need a few more things... but this could turn out to be bad. It's unfortunate the local news at 5 was saying that it doesn't look as if it will impact us. While that may, somewhat, be true at the time, this storm could do anything! I don't think they do a good enough job of explaining that. The last thing we need is people being complacent. Don't want to alarm anyone either, though, I guess.
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annon.
Unregistered
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(Off topic post removed by moderator)
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:20 AM)
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Last two vortex messages from recon. The most recent from about an hour ago, and taken at about the same time as the sat images we are viewing right now.
URNT12 KNHC 012215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2215Z
B. 22 DEG 09 MIN N
71 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2549 M
D. 55 KT
E. 042 DEG 093 NM
F. 118 DEG 134 KT
G. 029 DEG 017 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 10 C/ 3114 M
J. 18 C/ 3110 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A OB 27
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 2210Z.
URNT12 KNHC 012323
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2323Z
B. 22 DEG 14 MIN N
71 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2548 M
D. 65 KT
E. 228 DEG 024 NM
F. 321 DEG 119 KT
G. 230 DEG 016 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 13 C/ 3120 M
J. 18 C/ 3113 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A OB 32
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 2210Z. GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE.
5 MIN N difference and 14 MIN W. That is about 3 West to 1 North. WNW is 4 West to 1 North. So more North than WNW, but not NW.
And these are only about an hour apart, so even a wobble could throw this north.
Bill
Edited by BillD (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:23 AM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Was the turn to the NW mentioned in latest advisory expected?
Take a look at the last 3 frames in the IR loop....Frances has turned back WNW....that was a NW wobble we saw a little earlier while the eyewall was undergoing restructuring.
--Lou
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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The last hour of sat pix loops from 2232 to 2332 looks to be going just north of due west..... either that or I'm hallunicating from watching too many loops today...
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MIkeG
Unregistered
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this is a gif file from yesterday and i have never seen something so cool!!!!!
this was yesterday!!!
vis...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/FRANCES-eye-loop.gif
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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No, you are not seeing things. is not even thinking about turning yet. Looks awesome on those sat shots.
Bill
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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that is one beast of a storm..... AWESOME PIX
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I've seen that too Frank, but it may be just another one of her wobblings that she has become famous for.
ShawnS
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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that was the coolest thing I think I've ever seen! It does make me want to throw up a bit though.
--------------------
Kelly
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Indeed, especially the last visible shot.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_vis1km_full.html
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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when the hurricane's inner eyewall collapses, a huge convective burst happens on one side, or it just feels like it.. the eye is going to jig-bob around. it's still going wnw... you can't make any reasonable argument that it has changed direction until you can disprove that it isn't just jerking around on it's generally straight path. has been gently bending right over the last couple of days.. will probably do this and slowly decelerate as it gets closer. the heights to the north are going to start rising again by the weekend, so i'm betting the terminal path will be wnw/nw.
it may weaken some as it gets closer. not much.. maybe some. for now it still has the potential to get a tad stronger.
HF 0032z02september
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Jason, Would it be possible for you to give us a hint at what your forecast will sound like tonight? Do you still believe your West Palm Beach landfall will hold? I think it still sounds like the best area for a landfall also How do you feel about the Gulf Coast? Im alittle concerned, but just not sure what to really think right now with everyone on all the boards proclaiming a North movement, or a West movement, S FL hit likely, N Fl hit likely, no, SC, wait no Gerogia...ahhh its just so aggravating!!! Need a breather for now. Thanks in advance
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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 90
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See, I lost faith in myself. Darn thing hasn't started a NW run at all. It is still heading wnw...wow..that means it may still get in the gulf...
what is wierd about this whole thing..is MILLIONS are watching, preparing..etc...and just a small percentage...1% or so that have the poor fortune to get hit...well, just that percentage...their lives will be forever changed....
I am back on the Miami gig again...sorry...I know it makes some of you ill...ha!
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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I thank god that Stewart is putting out the 10PM advisory, because they refuse to address the threat to South Florida and I know Stewart will at least mention it. I was expecting based on info I heard that the watches would go up at 5PM, but as elluded to in the discussion they scrapped that because of the NW side of the storm. Hopefully, they will be issued tonight.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
Edited by WeatherNLU (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 AM)
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kelcot
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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with a storm that big, how is it possible for only 1% to be misfourtinate?
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Kelly
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
for now it still has the potential to get a tad stronger.
hmmmm....looks like that might already be starting. Once again, the convection is deepening and the storm itself is becoming more symmetrical. Watch for another pressure drop in the coming hours...
-Lou
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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At 5 and 6, I outlined the current situation, and described the effects on our area from the current track...I also showed the spaghetti plot from 12Z, and showed that they track is by no means set in stone, and that track adjustments are certain, just the direction of the adjustments are uncertain.
You guys generally get more insight from me than my viewers do...I have more time to talk here!
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Jason Kelley
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Neptune
Unregistered
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I'm in Neptune Beach (right outside Jacksonville). I'm hoping that this massive storm somehow doesn't hit my home. Are any of the tracks showing it hitting this area straight on (please oh please say no!)?
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MikeG
Unregistered
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was told was the "hmm dog" mode was used!!! (superscan)
waiting on todays pix.....
notice ....the donut close to center and how the eye sucked in the tops towards center.....
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