MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I see 2, maybe 3 things that could account for the forecast. The trough in New England is stronger on this model, therefore, it "pulls" it farther north, and I think the stretching on the sat pic is indicating that's where it would like to shift. There is a ULL in the E. Gulf, which is farther east than prior runs on the ETA. There is also a SW flow, albeit weak, in the Ohio Valley southward. Persistance forecasting would indicate the E. seaboard will be affected, as that seems to be the favorite track this year. Also, each storm has ended up further east than progged. I haven't followed this site much until now (sorry, forgot about it), but from a casual glance, it looks like the has been NOGOOD, the ETA needs time to pick things up, and the has been better than the rest, but even it has been to far west at times.
I still think this makes landfall farther north, and affects more of the east coast. I am in NJ, and I think it will be visiting here eventually in a much weakened state.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Yep that new 0Z run of the almost done now thru 120hrs and has almost exactly the same run as the 18Z., maybe just ever so slightly to the sw but that is due to it being slightly more sw at the start of the run due to the position compared to the 18Z run start. Overall same old same old.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Skeeto...you just made my knees weak. I live right across the STREET from George Jenkins High School. We walk to the football games there. When you say "windfield", what kind of winds are you talking about? (I'm hoping for the best here, can ya tell?)
My husband is so mad at himself for not getting that generator. 
Not a weather guy. Sorry... no guesstimate on wind speeds for the 50 yard line at George Jenkins. Just want to contribute what I can. I bet someone here can assist though.
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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On a good day with good weather and light traffic, I've made GA in less than 10 hours.... doesn't that red and blue 95 sign mean I can go 95? No? Oh.... but no ticket so far.
But this will not be good weather and light traffic. If you leave in the early AM Thursday, you should be OK. Weather won't start until Thursday night, but I would guess that a lot of people are leaving right now, so traffic will be heavy.
Bill
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Martha
Unregistered
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Still awfully new to Florida and still recovering from Charlie I'm extremly scared of what I can expect. Everyone told me with Charlie not to worry or evacuate becuase it was only a Cat 2 and not suppose to hit us direct... well we all know it ended up being a Cat 4 and pretty close to direct. What is the likelihood that Lee County/Cape Coral will get hit as bad again??? What winds should I expect??? Any advice would be greatly appreciated!!!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It is looking like it's going more west. I just watched the graphic on (you know, when the put the white line where the storm is?) and in the last couple frames it looked to be a tad south and west.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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What site do you use? The site is only out to 84 hours.....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Comments thru 84 hours...
A CREEPING solution along the coastline...somewhat further west that previously, so far, but basically has taking up station off shore from MLB and just sitting there for 18 hrs with the collapse of steering currents.
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Jason Kelley
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meto
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
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no you dont know where i am i was giving my opinion , i lived in miami in the 60;s ive been thru many hurricanes . you need to get a clue.
This is one powerful bad girl...need to try to all come to a consensus on a landfall..and I need sleep! Lets let stuff go for now....Tomorrrow dawns and we're still where we were tonight.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM)
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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The 18Z was almost identical to the 12Z. I have always given the a lot of credit, but now I don't know. Of course I might be eating crow for a week if it turns out to be right. But I don't think so.
Bill
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Richsurfs
Unregistered
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Mike,
This is Richisurfs from last year. I just lost my password and can't sign in and I also have new email address. I just wanted to tell you how great I think your site is doing...I mean staying up during this time when I'm sure there are tons of people on here. I have a cable connection which helps so much but I also have been keeping the page up and miniimizing it when I have to leave so that I don't run the risk of not being able to get it again. I keep hitting the ''refresh'' button and it automatically puts the new posts right up there for me. I feel this storm is going to show more of a southward track as time goes on but honestly I really know nothing...just a feeling from all the stuff I've been looking at and reading...i.e. the 11pm discussion from the By the way,.Jason, I'm in Indialantic(beachside of Melbourne) and we will be evacuating to your area tomorrow morning but I'm not sure if we will have to turn right back around once this thing goes across Florida( if it does)wherever that might be. I totally think the is on top of it but I do know they have a wide margin of error and anything can still happen. Anyhow, I wish it would turn up and go out so we could reap the benefits of good surf. I know though, I'm not going to be getting any this time but quite honestly, I could care less at this point. Thanks again ...it's running great Mike!
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Okay for those who haven't been watching the satellite loops the last few nights.
From 0345Z to 0615Z; 1145pm EDT to 215am EDT the satellites are in an eclipse with the Sun and will not be updating the images. If you use loops during that period that storm will freeze at the 0345Z frame.
Next new frame should be at 06:15Z or 2:15am EDT
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Yep offshore about 75-100 miles giving coast hurricane gusts. Still almost same as 18Z. It will be interesting though to see what the and Ukmet solutions do. If they go more NE slightly, then they will come in better agreement. Over all thru 84 is same.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
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Wow! Do you realize that people from Miami northward along both the east and west coasts are expecting to be hit by ? The whole SE U.S. coast can't evacuate! As someone said earlier, make local preparations to secure your home, then get ready to go to a local shelter if and when the time comes.
If you want to go on a long Labor Day weekend trip to, say Kansas(?), leave now and enjoy yourself. You still have time to leave the state. Personally, I think it's too early to be forced to leave - voluntary evacuations along the coast are in order though. "Prepare for the worst, pray for the best."
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Dennis S
Unregistered
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let's just hope they didn't blow it again and put in the same inputs as before, being an retired engineer , have seen that one done a few times. Hope not.
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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With , the origionally thought he would move N and not move back over the water. They ended up changing that idea once it made landfall. I believe there's a strong chance this thing may enter the Gulf and cause more trouble. Let's hope not-but I'm not banking on it at all!
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Am I on the right track here? 
In a word, Yes, I think so.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Thru 108....
Still a GA landfall very near Savannah...very interesting..I expected different.
Mr Spock, good analysis on why the is doing what it is doing..I just happen to disagree with what it is doing.
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I would say to her, "If they tell you to leave, GO!" Listen to whatever you're county officials tell you to do. Don't wait because the exact landfall area isn't set in stone, sweetie. Take some time tonight to get important papers together--especially your insurance information--pack up things you may want to take if you decide to leave the state.
But above all, just remember this: material things can be replaced. Your life cannot. Please know that there are a lot of people here that will be thinking of you and all of those to be affected by , and prayers are very powerful. Also, I know this is extremely scary, but try to keep yourself together. You'll need to rely on an inner strength that you probably don't even know you have. God bless...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MIAMIFL
Unregistered
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IF THAT IS NOT A CAT 5 NOW...PINCH ME
NHC IS BETTING ON A BIGTIME SLOW DONW...HOPE THEY KNOW SOMETHING MORE THAN ALL THE SITES AND DATA IN THE MODELS.....LATEST SPAGETTI IS IN FT. LAUDERDALE....KEEPS ON MOVING SOUTH AND WEST!!!!
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