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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 2AM Update [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23055 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:29 AM

new sat....... bck up
wow


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: 2AM Update [Re: Unregistered User]
      #23056 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:31 AM

Can you post a link to that UKMET model? Thanks!

I think........

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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mikeG
Unregistered




Re: 2AM Update [Re: mikeG]
      #23057 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:32 AM

i got smaller but cloud tops are colder close to north and east

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 2AM Update [Re: mikeG]
      #23058 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:36 AM

The models appeared to have shifted further for Frances to go further south (Palm Beach County impact) or ride the coast to the Carolinas (Like Joe Bastardi support(s)/(ed)) The UK model has it entering around Cocoa and into Gainesville.

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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 2AM Update [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #23059 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM

BAMM 2AM update has Frances hugging the coast and on to the Carolinas-it's only a model.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: 2AM Update [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #23060 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM

Ukmet doesnt have it going in to coco and to Gainesville,,its further south simular to the CMC and NOGAPS and moving out near Tampa.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Sat Track [Re: mikeG]
      #23061 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:43 AM

Eyeballing it from 0015 to 0615Z seems to have an extrapolation of about 25N and 78 or so west There seems to be a slight northern stair step in the 2 hour eclipse... but again, won't know if maybe, just maybe, it'll twist north.

It'll take a few more frames to see if there's a slowdown, but in the meantime, Gonna get some rest... I suspect Tomorrow will be a... distracted day at work... heh.

*IF*(and only if) it continues it's current course and heading, it's 39Hours from Landfall At West Palm Beach.. 5PM Friday???

Yuck.
Mark


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 2AM Update [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23062 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 AM

The last update was 8PM on 09/01,,right? That is what I'm looking at.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: 2AM Update [Re: scottsvb1]
      #23063 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM

For ones who are interested a couple of links:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloopsmall.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: 2AM Update [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23064 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:49 AM

did you notice in the 2 am advisory they dropped the nw turn. they have been saying, it looks like west lately. this could be one of the strongest hurricanes in fla, history/

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fred08
Unregistered




Re: 2AM Update [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #23065 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:50 AM

another eye rplac.....
????
632z......more north than west


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Sat Track [Re: Bloodstar]
      #23066 - Thu Sep 02 2004 02:55 AM

If you go to the GOES Storm Floater, click on the "Forecast Points" box on the top right hand side. It's almost exactly at where they have the symbol, so I think it's on track.

Dave on TWC just gave the best explanation of what the heck is going on with that sub-tropical ridge, and he's leaning towards a stronger ridge, not a weakening ridge. Now I FINALLY understand what the heck is steering it. Thanks, Dave the Weather Guy!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: Sat Track [Re: Colleen A.]
      #23067 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 AM

its going to the west, and strengthining......scary

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Evacuations [Re: meto]
      #23068 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:29 AM

From Miami NWS office:
*EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS IN PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PERSONS IN THE CATEGORY 4 EVACUATION ZONE BEGINNING 2 PM THURSDAY.
*GLADES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ANTICIPATE A MANDATORY EVACUATION OF PEOPLE LIVING IN MOBILE HOMES IN NORTHEAST GLADES COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
*BROWARD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ANTICIPATES A MANDATORY EVACUATION THURSDAY FOR PERSONS LIVING IN PLAN A EVACUATION ZONE WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND ALL MOBILE HOMES.
*HENDRY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
ANTICIPATE CLOSING SCHOOLS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL LOCK DOWN THE FORT DENAUD BRIDGE ONCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACH THE AREA.
**ADDITIONALLY...ALL SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
These are the only ones listed through NWS offices at 03:30 AM EDT http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MFL/HLSMFL.0409020633

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 02 2004 03:49 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Vortex fix [Re: danielw]
      #23069 - Thu Sep 02 2004 03:57 AM

Pressure dropped 1mb. Now at 936mb. Eye diameter down to 25nm.
Earlier pressure was 937, with a 30nm eye.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:Hur Watch Extended South [Re: danielw]
      #23071 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:36 AM

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO CRAIG KEY.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM CRAIG KEY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 30.5N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
The above forecast location is East of Tallahassee, near I-10 and Highway 59, near Lloyd,FL





Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 02 2004 04:44 AM)


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: New Vortex fix [Re: danielw]
      #23073 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:38 AM

Still moving W or WNW? I wonder if the ridge will continue it on this path. Miami Dade/Broward are already on alert (part of the hurricane watch area). When was it projected to start its NW turn?

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: New Vortex fix [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #23074 - Thu Sep 02 2004 04:58 AM

Still moving WNW, maybe a tad more to the right than earlier.
Anxiously awaiting 5AM update here in Port St. Lucie.
It is going to be another busy day of getting ready.
I think those waiting to give their forecast till it is only 72 hours out had better check the official forecast. I expect Tropical Storm conditions to begin Friday afternoon somewhere on Florida coast.
Hurric


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: New Vortex fix [Re: Hurric]
      #23075 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM

The 5AM update is out already; the track shifted to the west somewhat-don;t know the landfall destination-appears to be Martin County.

--------------------
________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: New Vortex fix [Re: Hurric]
      #23076 - Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 AM

5AM the track shifts west.

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