Clark
Meteorologist
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JG,
I don't believe the Gulf Stream will have any impact on the forward speed of the storm. At it's current intensity or intensities slightly higher, the steering flow is almost exactly the same (and forecast to be such through time).
The only thing that could really start to send it further to the north is a rapid intensification (due to increased Beta effect...think along the lines of increased influence due to Coriolis), but by then it will already be near land and likely to lose that punch once it hits land. SInce it is such a large storm, I do believe the envelope for intensification will close sooner than it did for and Andrew, both of which strengthened to landfall.
It may slow a little bit more in the short-term, then begin to move with a little more urgency through time. Just don't expect anything like the 15-20mph movement the storm had before came through. Hope this helps...
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Clark
Meteorologist
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I'll second that. The mods and admins have been doing a great job handling the increased traffic and bandwidth.
Let's not go hog wild predicting intensification, whether in the Atlantic or the Gulf. 2.5 million people are now under evacuation orders. This could well surpass Floyd, to date the largest peace time evacuation in this nation's history, in terms of number of people evacuated. We can always pray for a quick, safe recurvature out to sea, but the storm has already changed many lives and will likely do so over the next three days. Forecasting this storm is a tough, tough job -- and often times a thankless one.
I've had all of my family and friends in Orlando call or e-mail me asking where the storm is going. I've been telling them south of town for a couple of days. But, what if I were wrong? People make decisions based off of what they hear, whether it's from someone on this board or on television or from the hurricane center. That's why it is important to focus on the storm as a swath and not a point. That's why it's important not to needlessly worry people who are searching for information about the storm.
If you have valid reasoning behind what you think, by all means post it...along with the reasoning. But, please do use discretion in terms of posting statements without anything to back it up with. You never know who could stumble across your information and, despite the disclaimers, use it as advice and make a potentially life-changing decision...for better or worse.
As Phil said at the end of the previous thread, this job is best left to the NWS -- they do know what they are doing. There is room for augmentation however, with valid reasoning, and two highly intelligent, highly competent meteorologists can completely disagree on something like this -- and have valid reasons behind both scenarios. I've seen it happen time after time, particularly with this storm. But, it's best to leave this sort of thing to the pros. Anything I, or Jason, or HF, or anyone posts here should be taken with a grain of salt -- use it to educate yourself, learn more about the science, be prepared...and then review statements from your local emergency management officials, from your local NWS office, and from the . I can't emphasize that enough.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Boy was this place packed today could not get in.Well I am glad now.Frances looks to be almost at an idle or getting there.This is usually a signal for a change in direction.The question then is it a reenforcement of the ridge to the N and how hard.Definitely not easy questions to answer at this time.I would think that in the next 24hrs we might get the answer.Maybe with a strengthing trend just a thought.I agree Phil I was talking to a lady tonight who lost everthing with Alision and she said everything.That is hard to contemplate starting over from nothing.
Thats pretty cool Clark like that understand some of it just not all of it.
Edited by javlin (Fri Sep 03 2004 03:58 AM)
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SonnerShawn
Unregistered
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I swear I can not find any movement with in the past couple of hrs. She really looks to have stalled.
ShawnS
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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The above post was SoonerShawn.
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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in my case maybe more than a grain, as of the listed i do not carry a met. degree. that said i've got a scenario-discussion for the overnight.
the convective pattern in the storm right now reminds me a little of bonnie (not this year's bonnie, the one in '98). different animal as far as synoptic conditions, but the storm got a wopperjawed inner core a couple days before landfall and never got it's act together on the way in. that may translate to our current system, as the eye seems to have collapsed and the pressure is stuck near 950. the system should at least maintain itself on the way in.. but if tomorrow morning the pressure has jumped up in the 960s it may in fact be one of those magical weakenings not officially forecast, but a saving grace in terms of intensity. remember, as phil likes to remind the board.. damage increases multiplicatively as the wind speed increases.. 125mph is well below 145mph in terms of damage potential... even if only a category down.
the other thing to watch for is what forecaster stewart (seems to have quite a following) mentions as a late game window for the storm to recharge.. after 24hr the current moderate shear regime is forecast to abate.. and the storm will be over gulf stream waters at the time. calculate that with what clark mentioned about a large envelope storm being less likely to strengthen up to landfall.. and it makes the steady state seem the best option. of course the storm may restructure itself and be back to it's former state tomorrow, but this evening brought what could be great news.. may have had it's edge taken off.
late mention of elsewheres..
td 9 signature improving, despite uncertainty with its center.. should become comrade tomorrow. my idea with the storm is right edge of envelope, with significant strengthening as it nears the islands. tentative, but i'd trust it more than my official line on (ga/cat4). also, i was doing better with five days ago.. for good measure.
97L persists, moving slowly wnw. ridging should build back over it, give it a real development window. i'm not sure on whether it goes out or lingers behind the trough and resumes west. fully dependent on strength and timing... and that's as easy as calling a pitch against a pitcher you've never hit against.
such is the tropics as we enter september 3rd.
HF 0356z03september
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Anyone have any forecasts or guesses for how long the slow down will be and is it really going 10mph or slower? Seems slower.
Storm is really encased in the high right now even though that is forecasted to happen again over 24 hours from now. Going by maps shown by Norcross all night on the way the ridge works with the storm in it. Both where we are now... what is forecast and other possibilities.
All local coverage is good but getting tired and may mute it and just listen to the radio and write.
Going to be a long Labor Day weekend.
And..just wanted to point out..was surprised about one thing at 11. Had New Orleans in the probs. Low mind you..REAL low and know its probably based on one model or something.. but surprised me to see a city that far away to the west with probs.. any.
Without a trough to the immediate north I think you have to look at tracks more like the 1926 storm that went across the state and towards LA rather than Donna that turned back faster. Don't mean 1926 as in "miami" but as in a bit further up the coast with the same angle. Then again.. 1928 comes to mind though angle was I think sharper indicated a real weakness in the ridge or a front. Someone would know here I am sure.
Bobbi
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FromUpNorth
Unregistered
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Gentlemen,
I have spent the last several hours reading the posts here and am thoroughly pleased that I have found a place to monitor the storm activity with ease, as I have no real experience with how to interpret and predict based on the raw data presented elsewhere. I have loved ones in Ft. Myers and concern for all those affected by the last storm.
Please direct me to the appropriate forum/thread in which I can pose a "novice" question regarding what the chances are for a change in the current track based on outlying contributing factors, such as current moisture and influence from the Northwest, and how they might lead to a more direct path to the Ft. Myers area.
Thanks in advance.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Stewart's discussion tonight was excellent by the way. Yes he does have quite a following.
And, did think on Bonnie a bit a few days back because though no one has talked about it. Several days back..last week maybe Norcross did talk on air about it possibly having it stall in the Bahamas where it is now. Pretty good for like a week ago.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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We take novice questions here just fine!!! However, if you haven't already done so, you might want to peruse the previous couple of topics...your questions might have already been answered...if not, fire away!
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Jason Kelley
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For all new to the board. Satellites are in an eclipse with the Sun until 2:15am EDT. The Satellite pics you are looking at most likely atop at 0345Z. There may be several frames of 0345Z, and LSU usually stops their frames around 0400Z.
The sat shots should resume around 2:30-2:45am EDT.
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HCRay
Unregistered
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Has anyone started to take al ook at coordinating the expected land fall postion and time with tidal projections to get a total surge and wave height forecast? It will be the next step once we all agree on where it will hit. HA HA HA
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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This was what I was worried about:
Quote:
THE DROPSONDE SURVEILLANCE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE 300 MB
WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND IS UNDERCUTTING THE VERY
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER. THIS HAS LIKELY BEEN DISRUPTING THE EYE
SINCE THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH
FRANCES WESTWARD. THIS MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS NOT
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 24-26 HOURS. AT THAT
TIME...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS PASSES SLOWLY OVER
THE VERY WARM GULFSTREAM.
But also, the water temps are at 88* just ahead of her in the Bahamas. Unless, of course, that is where the Gulfstream begins. That could be a  moment for me.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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IR loop for the past hour or so did not show very much movement for ... hard to really tell without a discernable eye... but overview of the basic eye wall core did not reveal much movement during the past hour, seems to be some significant convection building in the northern half of the eye wall... IMO... if its moving, its not as fast as it was earlier in the evening... and if its stalled, and I'm certainly not saying it is because I have only been looking at a hour of loops, it could perhaps impact the forecasts down the road, and lord forbid the models might start going bonkers again.. I sure hope not... ... obviously another wild card to monitor this evening for sure....maybe its just a temporary slowdown and could get back on track any minute.... right now watching is like watching grass grow... and without an eye makes it even worse...
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FromUpNorth
Unregistered
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Thanks. Here goes...
Is it likely that if the ridge to the north of the storm remains strong, that it will either make landfall enough farther south so as to exit in the Ft. Myers area?
I am curious about how a front heading down from the NW will affect the storm track as it heads north.
I am curious as to how the current moisture affects the potential path the storm may take and the chance of a direction change heading into the Gulf and if that is a possibility.
Like I said...novice questions.
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Alex.K
Unregistered
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I do not mean to scare, hype or otherwise meteorologically demogouge. That said, I believe that the weakening phase may have come to and end. The convection is solid, and it looks like the whole area of thunderstorms is expanding. That said, I am no expert, so I cannot be at all sure.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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An interesting parallel between 1998 Bonnie and 2004 is that they will go down as two of the most heavily-studied storms during the storm itself in the Atlantic to date. Bonnie had many planes in and out of it all the time as part of various recon flights and field missions (such as CAMEX 4) and as such has been well-studied. In fact, I'm reading a paper on it right now. has had similar flights in and around it and, while the inner-core may not turn out to be as sampled as well as Bonnie, the synoptic environment around the storm has been sampled more heavily than any storm I can recall. In any circumstance, it should be interesting to see papers and research over the next 2 or so years on why the models failed with the ridge around the storm (and thus the forecast tracks).
As another aside, this list has been particularly bad to Florida...and the rest of the basin as well. A friend of mine pointed this out to me -- Allen, Andrew, Mitch, Georges, , -- all storms which came from this list. I'm sure the others probably have similar patterns, but this one is particularly notable.
To go more into my comment about large envelope storms being less likely to intensify near landfall -- the larger a storm is, the longer it takes to spin up. Think of the coin drains you used to see in shopping malls and grocery stores: drop a penny in and watch it go round and round. The smaller the drain, the faster it would move around and faster it would get to the center.
Now, picture a block of air on the periphery of the storm. With a smaller storm, it is going to circulate into the center faster, allowing for faster spin up due to the transfer of additional energy (angular momentum, other quantities I won't go into detail about here due to their complexity...ones which I don't understand either). With a larger storm, it'll eventually get there, but it's got a longer path to get to the center and will move slower around the periphery as well.
Frances isn't going to have *that* much time over the Gulf stream to spin up like that. Some increase is possible, but it should be very modest and in line with projections. Furthermore, the larger circulation means that part of the circulation is going to be affected by the big landmass of Florida a lot sooner than a smaller circulation like was. We've seen the little impacts the Bahamas have had on ; now, even once the storm gets to the Gulf Stream, about 20-25% of the circulation envelope will already be over Florida, a percentage that will increase as it nears shore. For part of the storm, its energy source will already be taken away by the time the center gets to the Gulf Stream (and before then, the other side of the storm will still be dealing with the Bahamas). Primarily for these two reasons and partially based upon climatology for these types of storms, that's why a steady-state (or nearly so, as the calls for) solution is probably the best call in this case.
Brief note on TD 9 & 97L - TD 9 should be sometime tomorrow. The circulation is on the NE side of the convection, or so it appears, but if anything this is going to help it with the fast forward speed towards the west otherwise wanting to tend towards shifting the convection to the east of the center. The is probably way too high with the intensity, bringing a strong cat 4 hurricane through the central islands in 5 days, but with these deep tropics storms, you never know. Strange how many potential Caribbean storms we've had this year.
97L...it has a shot, but needs to develop some convection over its center. Currently, it's all well-removed to the north and east; it's got to show some better organization soon for it to have a shot. It's one for the fish in the end, and with more pressing matters, that's all I'm going to say about that one unless conditions otherwise warrant.
Okay, I said an hour ago I was going to get some rest -- I mean it this time! 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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That is a possible scenario, but not a likely one at this point....the model is hinting at that, but I believe it to be too far south...if the ridge is much stronger than forecast, then that is a possibility..but at this point not a likelyhood.
The front is a result of other processes that are occuring in the atmosphere, and those are being taken into account..so the effect of the front is really the effects of the entire pattern...you can't really single it out like that too much..
I'm not exactly sure of what you mean in your last question...you mean atmospheric moisture??
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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Could someone please explain to me why the mets on the air, including Steve Lyons, keep saying that the storm is moving to the NW at 10mph while all the while pointing at the info they have at the top of the screen that says WNW @ 10mph? They have been doing this all day long, and they were right for about 2 hours.
Also, on a lighter note: Dr. Lyons said: "Now as the hurricane goes over the very warm waters of the gulfstream, it is very possible that could instensify and make landfall as a CatIV. OR POSSIBLY NOT."
Don't get me wrong, I love Stevie, but .......sometimes I just have to wonder. 
And to think I was the only one who felt that way about Dr. Lyons...
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 04:44 AM)
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FromUpNorth
Unregistered
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Well, that's where I'm uncertain myself. I understand that during Charlie, there was some correllation made between what I'll assume is atmospheric moisture and the rapid change in direction just prior to landfall. Verifying this would be the first step. Then, if valid, I would be curious as to how that might affect this storm. Hope this makes some sense.
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