MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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4:00PM
Recon reporting pressure dropping again which confirms that the weakening phase is over. Unfortunately back down to 959 mb
2:30PM
Storm pressure is up higher, going through bit of a weakening trend, may weaken a little more before it stabilizes. Still a category 3.
Do not focus on one point, track errors may be large.
Thanks again.
Original Update
Tropical Storm has formed east of the Caribbean Islands. More to come on it later.
Hurricane , still a category 3 system, is being disrupted a bit this morning, from slight shear that has formed from the southwest. This is some relief to the Bahama islands, some of which have been ravaged so far.
Reminder this is just a guide, don't be fixatted ont he point of landfall.
The good news is that a large system like can take a longer time to recover from distruptions like these, but the bad news is that the waters on the far side of the Bahamas are very warm from the Gulf Stream, add the sloward forward motion into the equation and it could recoup its strength again.
There will most likely be more surprises like this as well. It's not over yet. The east coast of Florida has prepared for the most part excellently for the storm, and the chance for a strong landfall is most definitely still there. I hope it does not, but although it could dip to Category 2 a bit, I think will have enough time to recover before landfalling in Florida. Shear likely will help keep the recovery phase down until just before landfall, which is good news.
More to come during the day.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)Long Range Radar Loop
[url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?t=HLS&l=JAX]
Jacksonville (North Florida)[/url] - Long Range Radar Loop
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Miami Radar Long Range loop (Note the Miami NWS Radar hardware is having issues and may be down)
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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YEP. There is some shear but the big issue is dry air in the upper levels. A little si of relief that hopefuly will keep in check. :?:
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Kruz
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
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still looks like it will exit FL right over my house
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Dunnellon, FL
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Yes I saw on the site yesterday a model that showed the system now known s splitting Yucatan/Cuba into the so. GOM by the next weekend...oh happy day!
On to : is nearly stationary! BUT the ridge now exiting NC coast is moving steadly ESE and will force to the wNW trac predicted by the ...Also the shear is lessening and outflow seems to be returnig to the W anSW portions of the storm...more symmetrical configuration beginng to reappear...good convection N of center...
Look for re-emergence of eye feature soon and return to the trac...
FYI Barometers continue relatively lower in the N Dade Broward and Palm Beach County areas
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doug
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Yes, watching the barometers here in Ft. Laud. I must say...it is a rather nice day except for the occational breeze from the NE. All prepared and shuttered up down here! I don't recall having this much time to prepare for a storm.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The models I just looked at here bring the storm in a little farther north than track indicates, they remain on the south side of most of the models at the point where the center crosses the coast. Wonder if they may bring there track a little more to the north toward Melbourne.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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The last time weakened, they thought it would go back to Cat IV in hours, just like they do now
there are three differences, however:
There is more shear right now, there is some very dry air wrapping into the hurricane, and it is starting to feel the influence of land
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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From what I can see, and I know I'm looking at the upper levels of the system and not the LLC per se from this far out... but it sure hints of a center of rotation almost running parallel to the island of Eleuthera, the nothern part of the dog leg island that has been pounding... IF this is the center of the system, looks to be moving around 290-300 degrees... only a medium confidence level at best with this evaluation.... here is the link, run it at fast speed....
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I still think this storm turns due west because of the high pressure blocking its path northward. Flooding concerns becoming a real threat with slow motion expected. Bring the winds, not the flooding. At least I have insurance for the winds. Local stations already telling people to leave their shutters up for the possibility of next weekend. They say only remove necessary ones for fresh air or emergency exits. Remember all of you who thought this was a slow season about 5-6 weeks ago. You can really eat your crow now. Looks like I will be one of the first ones to see rainbands early this afternoon. My weather station is up and running, hopefully the power will stay on. Anyone outside the impact area that would like to PM me with their phone number, I will gladly call you to post my weather station info., should I lose power and can't link or post it. Thanks.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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wezman1
Unregistered
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Rabbit,
Are you still on the ship with JB on a northward turn up the coast to SC? I'm curious what he has to say this morning...
0-> Chris <-0
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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Finally got some good sleep last night after seeing weaken a bit, down to 120-125mph. Still powerful however. I'm still seeing shear coming out of the WSW from a high just south of central Cuba. The shear doesn't seem to be as strong as it did yesterday which could lead to some restrengthening(see attachment). I actually believed that if the storm came to a slow crawl this would be a somewhat worse scenario for Port St Lucie south. My reasoning being that would continue to track a bit more west than north, pulling it closer and closer to the SE coast of Florida. Then the ridge builds in, increases her forward speed a bit and tracks WNW(or maybe just a bit north of due west) again like she had been doing all week.
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Check the Surf
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Looking at the sat pics the whole diameter of is very large and I fear it will be very strong maybe another major.I am also worried because it wont be a fish for the islands so the vigil from Puerto Rico commenses.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Fri Sep 03 2004 09:55 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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FYI made a hardware change this morning that should make the site much more stable today. (knock on wood)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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very unsure of movement at the moment--could be anywhere between West Palm Beach and Charleston
Pressure up to 959 and it could be downgraded to 110 at 11
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Tammy
Unregistered
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Agent B: Do you have any reason to believe that there is a possiblity that flager and daytona beaches may lift the evaculation status any time today? Thanks Tammy
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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I dont think that they will downgrade anyone until this hurricane is past it. Miami is still under the warnings and it is past them already. The will be very cautious. 
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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THANKS FRANK: I BOOKMARKED THAT SITE FOR THIS EVENT, AND I AGREE THAT IS THE CENTER BUT I THINK IT IS MOVING SLOWLY WNW RIGHT TOWARD WPB...HARD TO TELL FROM THIS OR THE SAT PICS WE SEE.
I STLILL SEE SIGNS OF REGENERATION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND LESS INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AIR...SLOWLY RE GROUPING ITSELF...IMO
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doug
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GlasserinD
Unregistered
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Dear Friends, I found this website when I was searching the web for info. I own a home in Jupiter and live in Dallas. Hopelessly far away, unable to secure the property, and from what I understand - impossibole to find labor and supplies even if I was there. Just a brief comment: For the most part this site is a wonderful clearinghouse of pics, images and NOAA and NWS info. My criticism? No one here knows what the hell they are talking about. Don't be offended.. because apparently either do the so-called "pro's" - weathermen and meteorologists who post here all day. Your doom and gloom forecasts took weeks and months off this reader's life - and while we still may not kow what's to come - I think you should evaluate your own prognostic skills before posting with such certainty in the future. "I'm sure it will head back to the WNW shortly" - "It looks like this is only temporary and will restrengthen to a CAT 4 maybe a weak CAT 5." At this hour, these predictions are wrong and wronger - and to borrow from the movie, the people who posted them are dumb and dumber. Stick to the facts, please.
Sorry to hear your house is going to be leveled. Read the site disclaimer before you make such an assinine comment.
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 01:15 PM)
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Of particular interest to me on the latest recon report was the 40 mile eye, open to the SW and NE. I believe that whether or not is able to contract that eye today will be very telling on what intensity we have at landfall. It is possible, though not probable, that the pressure has risen partially owing another eyewall replacement cycle--as well as the shear that has developed.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Glasserin if that is your opinion about this site then stick to the website and information. I use these sites to discuss these weather events....not to make decisions about property or even let the site get me excited/anxious about storms...I let the get me excited about them...they are the pros...(and some on here are pros as well) However, on these sites its is ALL unofficial. If you enjoy discussing hurricanes then you will like this site...and all the crappy forecasts...lol
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