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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: teal61]
      #23920 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:51 PM

can't really make out any motion at the moment..... guess she'll move when she damn well feels like it......

women..... (just kidding ladies)

I might add she does not present a very attractive radar presentation either for a major storm, which she does not look like at all at the moment.... hope she doesn't take this criticism to harsh either...


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jim013
Unregistered




Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: erauwx]
      #23921 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:53 PM

yes i def agree with you i see the same thing

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: Frank P]
      #23922 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:56 PM

Just wait until she gets her sauna steam bath over the Gulf Stream. I hope we do not wake up tomorrow morning with a monster in the back yard. Size some times is not everything with weather systems if it is spread equally among 50 states.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: AgentB]
      #23923 - Fri Sep 03 2004 06:58 PM

well if that comes to fruition AgentB it could actually enter the GOM at a much lower latitude than forecasted by the NHC...

disclaimer.... anything I post for the remainder of the evening take with a grain of salt.... I am suffering from a serious case of deliriousness from looking at way to many sat and radar loops during the past 24 hours... I'm going to take a break... bet when I come back, nothing will have changed....

FP.lol. that happened to me yesterday...

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:43 PM)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: looks almost stationary to me too Teal.... [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #23924 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:09 PM

Quote:

Just wait until she gets her sauna steam bath over the Gulf Stream. I hope we do not wake up tomorrow morning with a monster in the back yard. Size some times is not everything with weather systems if it is spread equally among 50 states.




Kind of like Opal . When I went to bed it was a cat 1 when I woke up it was almost a cat 5

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 181
Loc:
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: erauwx]
      #23925 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:10 PM

Sunset makes the burst of convection look all the more impressive on the visual imagery loops!
Here's a link to the 48-hour rainfall forecast SE River Forecast Center. It'll be interesting (scary) to see tomorrow AM's update.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Radar [Re: HCW]
      #23926 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:11 PM

Looked at the radar and I can't really tell which way it is going,if at all, but It certainly looks like it is NOT going north at all.

ShawnS


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centauratlas
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
Loc: Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #23927 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:13 PM

Quote:

Mike, just an FYI, you may want to stop using that Hurricane Alley "Spaghetti Run" model map. They went PPV and that model run is from nearly two days ago.




Does anyone know of other places that have this type of run? I've seen some that have groups, but no other place with them all.

Thanks


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HMY
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23928 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:14 PM

I have been getting the impression that what the news and forecasters are saying and what is actually happening may be two different things. Scary.

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: RevUp]
      #23929 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:19 PM

New 18Z GFS takes Frances from landfall on the EC and kind of runs it parallel to the Panhandle finally puting it onshore near Pensacola, FWB. That, plus some of the other models I've seen today makes me think the threat of a second landfall along the Panhandle from Tallahassee to Fl, Al border probably as a strong TS. Even the NHC's favorite model the GFDL takes it much farther west then they have forecasted. Im not real sure though, just going with what I've seen. Im sure this will change so Im not to worried over here.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Wind Field images [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #23930 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:25 PM

Done! Getting more complex as we learn to better interpret the forecasts. These images are beginning to require a larger over all size to display properly and display data that best helps everyone concerned.

http://www.skeetobite.com


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MIDA
Unregistered




Re: Radar [Re: HMY]
      #23931 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:26 PM

Been watching the Miami long range radar all afternoon. The local mets (channel 6) are remarking on the absence of rainfall on the SW side of the storm. To me it looks like the bands still offshore are shrinking and dissipating as they swing around. Is there a ton of substinence (sp? into the Mt Gay rum, need something to do) around? Does this mean there will be continued weakening?

Michelle in South Dade
Longtime lurker; love the site
(think I'm registered from 2 years ago but post so infrequently I can't remember my password)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
labor day weekend [Re: Frank P]
      #23932 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:31 PM

thoughts on Frances:
frances is shearing itself. the neat lockstep of upper features supporting the storm is out of whack now, with Frances own upper high extending sw of the storm, feeding its own outflow jet back into its nw quadrant. the weakening steering earlier forecast by some of the globals looks like it was on to something.. Frances isn't moving much this evening. this is beyond my meteorological level.. but i've got an idea that Frances is looking for an outflow hookup to the west.. rather than having it jacked back over it's western side. too stumped to make a movement call other than the official.. wnw/nw line. slowly. if it doesn't get to moving in a few hours upwelling will come into play.. but it would take a hell of a long time over the ~30C waters near the bahamas.
most reasonable thing to predict is a static intensity and landfall in lower brevard county tomorrow night.
ivan:
a tad stronger than the official, slightly to the north. i'm reckoning it will cross the lesser antilles as a major hurricane early tuesday, from this far out. modeling has me thinking this is another threat to the southeastern u.s. late next week.. highly dependent on intensity (a weak storm will continue west) and contact with the islands (hitting any of the larger caribbean islands will knock the strength down). at this far out it's just a hunch.
97L: NRL no longer tracking, may be absorbed into a trough. system is still quite convectively active and over warm waters.. suspect it may still develop, though not as certain as yesterday.
follow on:
oh, lets just get it out now. globals are developing the wave set to come off tonight/tomorrow behind Ivan. GFS is favoring a more northerly track at this point, but until it comes off we won't have much to go on.
frances' weakening is the typical story with longtrackers approaching the u.s. in recent years.. but it may be too good to be true. vigilance until it comes in. may lose some more punch, may start inching back up as steering returns.
HF 2330z03september

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Sep 03 2004 08:13 PM)


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Radar [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #23933 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:37 PM

Was watching Bryan Norcross a while ago (maybe 30 mins?) he was talking to someone (having senior moment here, it was not Max Mayfield) at the NHC. There is no eye, just a "center of circulation". They were discussing how difficult it was to use radar in these kinds of siutations to determine direction. So its not you!

They also said it was possible at this point that no eye would ever form, that the wind field had become so dispersed, and so close to landfall, that there was a good chance that an eye would not reform. However they did emphasize this was still a strong and dangerous hurricane.

Right now where I am in Miami it is like a fall evening. Temps have dropped into the upper 70's, variable breeze, cloudy now (it was clear until about 30 mins ago).

Update: forgot to mention, Norcross was pushing the NHC guy about motion. Norcross was asking if it was moving at all, and the NHC guy dodged the question, twice, then Norcross gave up and went on to something else. I thought that was kind of odd.

Bill

Edited by BillD (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:42 PM)


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Frances to Move Slowly Across Florida Tomorrow [Re: DroopGB31]
      #23934 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:40 PM

I just came across this while checking out the marine forcast for this weekend. I am supposed to be fishing in a tourny out in the GOM ! Not sure when ALABAMA came so into the picture, but I am surprised that RickinMobileinaboat didn't mention it first !

"FZNT24 KNHC 032045
OFFNT4

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-040330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 03 2004

.SYNOPSIS...WIND AND SEAS INCREASE OVER E GULF SAT THROUGH MON
AS HURRICANE Frances MOVES OVER CENTRAL AND N FLORIDA LATE SUN
AND MON THEN FURTHER INLAND AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER ALABAMA
TUE."



So...you're saying CAT V in mobile bay?

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 03 2004 07:46 PM)


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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
Re: Radar [Re: BillD]
      #23935 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:41 PM

Interview on CNN with Max Mayfield showed the hurricane hunters found a decrease in winds and would wait for another report. Then downgrade to a Cat II. Everyone still talking this up but the storm is slowing to a crawl, now at 8 mph.

--------------------
Go Boilermakers


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Frances now stationary! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #23936 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:44 PM

Hi everybody! This will be my only chance to post until late. Frances is now stationary on satellite imagery, and the 18Z GFS is now west of current guidance with Frances re-emerging in the GOM and 2nd landfall projected to be near Appalachicola. Recent recon data shows Frances continuing to weaken as shear is evident on her west and southwest side and water vapor shows very dry air to her northwest. All that said, she's looking better on imagery and becoming more symmetrical. Frances going stationary changes things in the short term and depending on who's corner you're in; this isn't a good sign if she gets over the Gulf stream and stays for awhile. It's apparent the ridge to her north and northwest is strong given the water vapor imagery. Difficult to know now whether we're looking at something similar to Opal in 95, and whether it's possible we could see Frances bomb given the high oceanic heat she'll have at her disposal. Yall have a good evening, and prayers are with all along the FL coast tonight.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: berrywr]
      #23937 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:47 PM

According to Bryan Norcross, the storm on the newest update has been downgraded to a Cat II storm, and moving WNW at 4 mph.....He also said that hurricane force winds extend 90 some miles fron the center of the storm....

--------------------
You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Just a Thought [Re: PFSThunder]
      #23939 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:49 PM

Since it seems that the steering currents must be kind of weak right now I'll throw this out there. What if she makes a move straight west and moves over S.Florida and into the GOM. Before you say it, NO I'm not thinking anything about a Texas landfall. What I am saying is that it would give it more time over the gulf to gather strength again. Considering the gulf hasn't had anything since Charley to upwell the water there might be a chance of it getting back to its former self. I hope this does not come true, but at this moment anything seems to be possible.

ShawnS


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Frances now stationary! [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #23940 - Fri Sep 03 2004 07:56 PM

Hey, all

Back...several attempts to log on today resulted in sqrll denials...I think Mike fixed that (Again...you da man).

For some reason it seems like some of us are treating the apparent weakening trend as a bad thing...hello...THIS IS STILL A MAJOR STORM. Someone (many) are going to see a whole world of hurt regardless...down to 105mph...that's A GOOD THING. The Bahamas are being ripped to shrederines, lets hope that doesn't happen to FL.

ATTM, who cares who got the track right as long as this storm is being weakened? I'd rather have the wrong track but the right wind speed. We may be witnessing a minor miracle. Don't jinx it (as if you could). Who wouldn't take a CAT II ATTM if given that option yesterday? This is a good thing...this weakening trend...everyone pray it lasts.

Someone is still going to see 10+" of rain and big time winds, but hopefully not along Charley's scale.

105+ MPH is not a joke, so this is not to make light of this storm...however...yesterday the experts were saying CAT IV at landfall...no way she ramps back up that high now...thank god...(she owes me).

STILL, everyone be safe and be smart...this just may back off enough to spare catastrophic damage...let's all pray it does...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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