JHN
Unregistered
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very useful site..... hope fla is spared
totally off topic saw this today....
kewl pic
An HH-60H Seahawk, from Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron Four (HS-4), keeps an eye on a nearby vessel and a waterspout in the South China Sea, off the coast of Malaysia, Sept. 5, 2004. DoD photo by Photographer's Mate Airman Richard R. Waite, U.S. Navy.
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Its good to have you back too! Always nice having a pro around.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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The Accuweather track is taking the system right up the west coast. take a look. I guess JB makes forecast for Accuweather.
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Hi all, yes i posted on gatorpond( the temp forum this morning). Thanks again to the emails I recieved from people on my calls on all the way to landfall 5 days out on Martin county. On gatorpond I give some reasons to my forcasting. I hope everyone gets the power back up and the flooding subsides asap.
I will only give a brief note on right now as I did on the other forum. The pretty much has this down pat thru 72/84 hours thru Jamaica area--thru Cayman Islands to just N of western Cuba in 84-96 hours. is the outliner right now and will be off in the next 48 hours as it continues to show lack of troughiness in the medium range till it gets to the central gulf. Currently the has been the most consistant with the global models followed by the Ukmet. I suspect the to swing more to the left over the next couple of runs. I wont give a call yet on landfall area after 3 days here as the steering currents will be weak. Everyone on both sides of Florida - Mobile need to keep a eye on this,, especially western florida. Will post a landfall area by friday.
scottsvb pegged ' track closely 3 1/2 days out from florida... he may be on a roll. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Sep 09 2004 02:50 AM)
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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What am I, chopped liver??? LOL
Yes, I am glad to see Clark make his return as well...
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Jason Kelley
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey, scottsvb,
Thanks for posting...just one question...if you had to pick a landfall location and strength, right now, what would you say? A lot of people are relying on you! Please take a shot...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Jamiewx -- that's pretty much the same track as the . I'd imagine it's probably the same forecast, as deviations from the official path without clearly noting that they are not the official track forecast issuers are frowned upon.
With -- I've looked at a few more things here, and here's what I think as of now. steering away will help to draw ever so slightly northward, probably in 12-24hr, as will a slight weakness in the ridge to it's north. The ridge to it's north is consolidating near Bermuda as opposed to further south, which in itself should allow a bit more northward motion. The trough currently entering the west has a punch to it, but it's awfully far to the north and I don't see it being able to punch downward far enough to completely turn the storm. The current flow pattern favors a gradual movement towards the southeast/south central Gulf, followed by some more movement northward, and I don't really see much to change this drastically.
Ivan should end up crossing extreme western Cuba in about 4 days, possibly also crossing the Isle of Youth. I think it just might miss Jamaica to the south. Projected time frame from the looks good; if anything, I'd bump up the times a few hours, but that's not of much concern right now. It's too early to narrow a landfall point down, but I'd place highest odds on the region between Apalachicola and Biloxi, with slightly lower odds from Apalachicola eastward to Ft. Myers. I don't see this missing the coast and the Gulf. Those in the western Gulf should pay heed to this as well -- the longer this goes west, the more the danger to them increases.
Intensity -- with the current environment, strong outflow and an upper-low to the west to exhaust the storm, I don't see any reason why some further strengthening is not possible. I think most of it will occur as we get a bit closer to Jamaica and that intensity fluctuations will primarily be controlled by eyewall replacement cycles, but low-end 5 is not out of the realm of possibility. I mentioned this possibility awhile back on the temp board and still believe in it, albeit we're much further to the west now. I think is probably close to peaking for the time being, followed by some slight weakening (which may or may not end up reflected in the actual intensity products from the ), then perhaps another rampup after the next eyewall replacement cycle.
Of note is that the stronger the storm gets, the natural tendency is for the storm to gradually gain latitude. There exists a balance between the pressure gradient force, or how strong the difference is between a high and a low, and the coriolis force, which is the atmosphere's contribution to the spin of a storm. If the storm gets stronger, the pressure gradient force goes up as the pressure gradient tightens. As such, the Coriolis must increase, which leads to the storm to drift a bit further north.
Bottom line -- be prepared for anything.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ignoring the dynamic models that show quick recurvature, not interested in the (other than the storm getting caught off the east coast.. think that means something, if not it's literal interpretation).. rest of the globals which are harping on jamaica to western cuba to the west coast of florida... have my attention.
instead of focusing on five days from now, going to think of future events as a trickle-down effect from what happens between now and saturday. if the storm goes right of jamaica.. the storm be a south/east coast of florida to hatteras threat. probably a cat 3.
run it over or just west of jamaica and the storm will be a fluctuating cat 3/4 threat for the west coast of florida.. this is where my confidence is right now... though it may be mimicking and weakening late in the game.
further west (like, yucatan channel) and the storm's potential spread is from the panhandle to north mexico. in this scenario, likely an irregular track and unpredictable timeframe. there's also that far out shot at keeping to the far left and plowing into central america.. doesn't fly in my mind, but it's happened enough so that i never casually remove the prospect from mind.
jamaica may be hit by a category 5 hurricane on friday. this is not good.
HF 0226z09september
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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Alot of people are relying on me? Well I hope not. Even though I usually get most of the systems right I'Im human and did get Earl wrong. I cant give ya a exact point right now cause its not good forecasting to give a call on 5 days out. I do at time but thats when the steering currents are more obvious. Lets just say what I posted above in the 84hour time frame. Clark said it right on that its a wait and see and Friday we will have a good idea on the 3 day landfall forecast.
Amazingly, scottsvb, that's what we all thought
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 02:33 AM)
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Good to see you back Clark, always love to read your post. Keep up the good work. Also, please keep the words , landfall and western flordia panhandle out of the same sentence for the sake of all here just kiddin with ya, nothing we can do about it LOL people are already preparing and all my teachers are thinking this will be a big one here. I dont want to agree with them, but I think if there will be any trend, its gonna be further west from where the models are now. Good for the West coast of FL, bad for some Gulf Coasters. Lets keep are fingers crossed maybe he'll die a quick death. But for the meantime, very beautiful storm over the open waters, just like I like'em.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Hey there, I'm glad the site is back up (though, I evacuted CB when it was a Cat 4 and came back Tuesday to no cable/internet access until this afternoon). Expect a donation as soon as I set up a Paypal account, and by the way, anybody who reads or posts here should donate to this cause, as well as to those affected by the hurricanes.
It's been a crazy past week for all Floridians. I evacuted to Tampa, only to find that the eye passed over us (or center with calm winds) and the road our hotel is on totally flooded over with zero access to the westbound lanes. Back in Cocoa Beach, I've never seen damage of this sort in this area. The only event that I can compare it to was when I saw Andrew's devistation, a totally and wholly different story. Many beach-front homes sanded over, looks like snow on palm trees from a distance, and of course, the church is a totally surreal sight. Good luck, God-bless, and God-speed to all those who are badly affected by these storms. I was luckly, having little structural damage, aside from a couple shingles blown, but consequently, having fences down and a yard filled and stacked with various flora, foilage, and fronds taking a good two days worth of work. Out of all the stress it's caused though, I think will be remembered most for the model's total inability to firmly grasp the motion and future of France, even if they had the general direction.
Looking to , I certainly agree that it looks Cat 5 status, having a resemblence to Mitch and Gilbert. As for forecasting and wishcasting, I hope that it doesn't hit Florida, because we can't take any more, but it too early to tell. We'll see the latest update and track soon...
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Hey Jason -- really turned out to be a doozy here in the Panhandle, eh? We didn't end up going out to follow the storm, citing flooding concerns, but may prove to be another story.
I'm just glad the site is back -- the days without checking up from everyone were long!
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Wow this is getting better and better! We have another pro back! Im sooooo glad this place is back to normal. 
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gailmm
Unregistered
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Thanks for the travelogue--my house is in Satellite Beach but I'm in NH at the moment. We are 4 blocks west of A1A and just lost a few shingles, a tree I wanted down anyway, and a couple sections of fence. Yet our neighbors diagonally across the street had major roof damage and the inside is virtually flooded. And their house supposedly was built to withstand 150mph winds. Go figure.
My theory on Cocoa damage is age of construction and roof style:from what I have seen (albeit at a distance and through my friend's eyes) is that a higher percentage of flatter roofs were damaged. That roof style was most popular in the 50's and 60's, when many of Cocoa's structures were built. By contrast, my house has a hip roof, which supposedly withstands high winds better, and the average age of structures in Sat Beach, IHB, etc are probably newer than Cocoa Beach, which saw heavy development in the early days of the space program. Just some ideas from a lay person who probably has no clue...
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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whole world of hurt. the storm looks too good! The weather this year is eerie.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Never really rained that much here...got about half an inch in Panama City..max wind gust came in that first feeder band on SUNDAY...(51mph at the PFN airport).
New disco from Jack Beven is in....
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Jason Kelley
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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11 PM Discussion in.. Track Shifted right..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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As others have already said, I have been lost without this forum for the past several days. I look to you guys for much needed insight on these storms.
As for , I really don't know how much more we can take here in Central FL. My house is starting to show troubles brewing. During , my roof started leaking...and with today's normal afternoon thunderstorm, new leaks are popping up. Strangely, there is no visible damage outside (ie..shingle loss etc). My pool deck is shattered from falling trees and the fence is now completely gone. Thanks to , I now have a 75 foot pine tree lying across the back...roots high in the air. The normally placid creek behind my property is a raging river now over 15 feet deep. It is within a foot or two from going over the banks (something it has never done in the 28 yrs I have lived in this house). If pays a visit here, I fear I may suffer truly severe damage.
--Lou 
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Taking forever
Unregistered
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Eerie can not capture in words what this summer is. First the major rain stroms of June with the flooding of NJ and then the stalled cold front, back to back tropical storms and the flooding of the rest of the east coast thanks to those three, and then and the never-ending storm. Now . is looking to be a Cat 5 contender
Wonder what winter will bring...
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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scary thought! You guys will probably think im crazy but I have had more strange dreams these last 2 weeks than it seems like ever before. One was that this newest one got so powerful like a 6 or something crazy and went from west to east directly across the big bend area and literally ripped florida minus the panhandle away from the rest of the country! I know this is not possible but you know how dreams are. Really a weird one.
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