h2ocean
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 91
Loc: South Merritt Island, FL
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Hey Gailmm...glad to hear your house did ok. I was posting the updates from S. Merritt Island until we lost power. We also faired well, we didn't even lose a shingle (we have miami-dade rated shingles and I guess they stood the test). You are correct about the flat roofs - I saw so many of them ripped off. Also many gable roofs failed. You are correct about the hip roofs being stronger, that is why I choose that roof style - the wind blows and it actually helps hold the sheathing in place. With flat roofs you get uplift.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well, been studiing for several hours and here is what I have gleaned so far.
1) This is a GOM storm.
2) This is very near definately a Florida landfalling storm (the furtherest west I could place it at this point is Biloxi...and that is a stretch)
3) If pressed to make a call, I'd have to say the western peninsula is the most likely location....but this is extremely low confidence, and I am vaciliating between that and a Panhandle strike. The model guidance is not definative, to say the least...while I recognize why is further right in this advisory, I am not in total agreement. Remember that is using a model blend to come up with their track and not the 'best performing' model...this is a pretty good technique for trends, but not the best for nailing down an exact location, especially when the track spread is wide. The hinge is the trough, and the eventual impact on the track. The good news is that, as outlined in Beven's 11pm disco, there should be at least some slight weakening prior to landfall, but this might not be enough to significantly weaken it.
All residents of Florida should be watching very closely this week (as if they weren't already).
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Wed Sep 08 2004 11:09 PM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi Everyone,
I am back after 4 days of having no power, no phone, no cell phone, a limited water supply and raw sewage pouring into my street. All in all my house weathered the storm well compared to my neighbors. In my neighborhood, there are tons of trees down, shingles off most homes, roof damage to many others, screen enclosures ripped apart, most fences down, signs all down, traffic signals all out, etc. I was in the southern eyewall for 5-6 hours straight on Saturday night. The wind just roared at hurricane force for all those hours. It is amazing how loud it is in a house all boarded up. Almost all of Palm Beach County was without power during the storm. Half of the county is still out after 5 days. I am one of the lucky ones to get power back. We still have a night time curfew, most traffic signals still out, stores closed, schools closed until next week, gas lines every place, etc., etc. My backyard weather station recorded a peak gust of 89 mph, a minimum pressure of 28.85" and 9.56" of rainfall. Of course the station was off the air for the height of the storm, so it came to keeping the stats the old fashioned way by pen and paper. Hope everyone else weathered the storm well. Pictures to come soon.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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".LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-WED)...HERE WE GO AGAIN? LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE DEALING WITH BY THE TAIL END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AS USUAL ALL ELEMENTS OF UPPER RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL HAVE TO COME TOGETHER FOR US TO BE NAILED. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE
IT AFFECTING FLORIDA SOMEWHERE. WILL BE ABLE TO FOCUS MORE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO AS WE ALWAYS SAY...STAY TUNED."
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Last photos seem to show a slightly north of west motion, and the last picture now shows the eye has cleared out. I am wondering if an has completed. I am guessing the winds will be increased by Thur. morning, since the increase in winds should spin down as a result of the sharp pressure drop earlier. It is still hard to believe the models keep shifting right. Not that I trust the ETA at this point, but at 84 hours, it has a track to the left of the others. I am thinking this will end up in the eastern GOM, but was a good reminder that even short range forecasts can be challenging.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Nice analysis Jason. So if you think a Biloxi landfall is a stretch, that'd mean Pensacola wouldnt be at to much more of a risk I'd hope? I just have a bad feeling about this one. Just seems like the storm with the most damage potential so far this year, and I dont want nothin to do with it. I dont wish it on anybody else though, so I feel bad because someones gonna get it...bad unfourtanetly. Hopefully we'll see some weakening prior to landfall rather than strengthening. So I guess all along the GC, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Goodnight
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I'd say that Pensacola is a lot more at risk than BIX, but lower than other parts of FL....however, a strike in your area certainly is possible.
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Jason Kelley
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just got through watching Glenn Burns our local met on WSB-TV and had the 11pm track from the in which he said that the storm was supposed to hit just south of Tampa and cross over the state through Orlando and when I saw it, I felt my stomach drop to the floor.
Anyone who reads and contributes to these boards, please say a prayer for this monster not to hit Florida, because I just don't know how much more that state can take.
Edited by Jeffmidtown (Wed Sep 08 2004 11:28 PM)
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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New map based on 11pm.
Also, true scale comparison. Seems that gets stronger and stronger, but the wind fields don't grow!?
Skeetobite.com
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gailmm
Unregistered
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Thanks for explaining what I thought I was observing. I remember reading that about hip roofs and it's one of the reasons we settled on the house we bought. Course, we're weird-we also looked at hurricane records to help us decide where we wanted to settle, though we fell in love with the area and probably would have bought there anyway. Joke's on us, huh?
Glad you made it through ok too. When it comes time to re-roof, we'll get those bad boy Dade shingles.
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Geez thats Manatee county! To soon to tell. round and round and round she goes where she'll make landfall who knows! Can you imagine having no mets or technology to inform us? I bet people from early era were devastated by hurricanes. no preparation nothing just whammo! Pretty scary
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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there is a new thead posted about 1 hour ago,,,plz go there,,ty.
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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And here's an extreme example of why we're lucky to know where the storm is...
The 1900 Galveston Hurricane
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