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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #24397 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:21 PM

It is so great to see the board back up again. Thanks to all for your thoughts and prayers during out last two attacks here in Central Fla. Living in St. Cloud has proven to be a true adventure this season. We are beginning to feel like a punch drunk boxer. Charley hit us hard to the head, and Frances beat us down with unceasing body blows. we are still standing but we are definitely weakened. The prospect of Ivan has everyone on edge.
the strain on the emotions of all, even those with minimal damage is beginning to show. Much quieter in the workplace, grocery stores etc. People are really in a Zombie state, and many are talking about just packing up and leaving. It is very disquieting to live 5 block from the major lake here in St.Cloud, and to have to sweep sand out of your bed at night because Frances blew it through the cracks in your Lumber and windows. I don't think we have been dry in over 3 weeks. If the power isn't out, the humidity is so high as to make it unbearable.
I pray that this thing just spins itself into oblivion and never touches land again, but I am also a realist. I know that we will once again feel the fury, I just hope we are all strong enough to survive. Keep up the strong work, many of us have learned to rely on you and Tom Terry of WFTV-9 as our guides.


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NorminCanada
Unregistered




Re: Map updates [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24398 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:23 PM

Just a quick note from up here in the frozen North to wish all the Canuck snowbirds down there the best of luck and to encourage all the board readers to pony up to help out the guy that runs this site. I found this site last year and it gives me endless hours of education. I am no fan of dangerous hurricanes and the harm they cause, but I love to learn about the weather. So.....take a moment.....think about what you receive.....and pull out your plastic.....its time.
Thanks for the service, Mike


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Map updates [Re: Unregistered User]
      #24399 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 PM

No, I live near the intersection of SR 56 and Bruce B. Downs. It's actually Wesley Chapel, but emergency services still has us as Zephyrhills.

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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




Trough [Re: Wingman51]
      #24400 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:24 PM

Remember, we are talking about a trough that from the last I heard has not even developed yet. Until it does than everyone is game. I still say Florida but it still is up in the air at this point.

ShawnS


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Kimberley Clark
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 44
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS [Re: AgentB]
      #24401 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:25 PM

Great information!! That answers the question I just asked. I guess there is a chance this thing could go ANYWHERE!! :?:

--------------------
Kimberley Clark
Mobile, Alabama

Weather Watcher


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS [Re: AgentB]
      #24402 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:25 PM

Amen. My wife and I visited Jamaica last year on a business trip (not much business though) and spent 4 days at the Ritz Carlton. We didn't stray from the resort, but we were perfectly happy not to. The people there treated us so well, we weren't used to it. So, I have developed a soft spot for the country and its people. I also realize that tourism is a major part of their economy, and it is terrible to think that 12 hours of weather could devastate that for many years. The guy I talked to in the resort was young when Gilbert hit, but he remembered it, and did state that it took a long time to rebuild. And as far as Florida, I can't imagine have 3 major hurricanes hit in about 1 month. No matter how fast the gov't responds, it becomes harder with each incident. I can picture debris from Charley being tossed around by Frances, and picked up again by Ivan.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of you. I have an uncle south of WPB who is in his 80's, and was stuck in an elevator for 2 hours. I would consider him one of the lucky ones.


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS [Re: Kimberley Clark]
      #24403 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:26 PM

Question! What are the steering currents that we suppose to be keeping and eye on and where are they?

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




IRONIC??? [Re: trinibaje]
      #24404 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:30 PM

I hate to bring this up but has anyone thought about what Saturday is?

9/11!!!

Can things get any worse?

It can not happen like this!

ShawnS


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trinibaje
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 136
Loc: MIAMI, FLORIDA
Re: IRONIC??? [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24405 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:34 PM

Quote:

I hate to bring this up but has anyone thought about what Saturday is?

9/11!!!
Can things get any worse?

It can not happen like this!

ShawnS




next think all the conspiracy theorist will say that the terrorist planning the weather to hit the most important state in the election.....


Edited by trinibaje (Thu Sep 09 2004 12:35 PM)


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char
Unregistered




heart out to all in Florida [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24406 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:38 PM

We visited our son and his wife and our grandson last Friday and returned home to new jersey on Tuesday of this week. Fortunately, their home is in North Port and they only received 75 mile per hour winds - however, my son employment is in Port Charlotte and was there when Charley hit. He is administrator of a health care facility and everyone there was fine - because it changed at the last minute no one was evacuated ----the devistation in the neighborhoods and the businesses were horrible. I cried when we saw everything. So my thoughts are all in Florida and I pray for everyone. :ooo:

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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: heart out to all in Florida [Re: char]
      #24407 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:44 PM

Quote:

Remember, we are talking about a trough that from the last I heard has not even developed yet. Until it does than everyone is game. I still say Florida but it still is up in the air at this point.

ShawnS




The trough I was speaking of is the one currently just north of Florida. It is "pushing" the remnants of Frances off to the NE, and is forecasted to erode to the western side of the high pressure ridge that's sitting to the east of Florida. This erosion would cause Ivan to make his NW/N turn and track between the Caymans and Cuba. However, if he is far enough south the weakness in the ridge won't affect him as much and he will continue to track to the WNW and won't make the NW/N turn until later than was forecast.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Benny
Unregistered




Re: heart out to all in Florida [Re: char]
      #24408 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:47 PM

Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.

Can you post pictures on this forum?


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AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS [Re: trinibaje]
      #24409 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:47 PM Attachment (237 downloads)

Quote:

Question! What are the steering currents that we suppose to be keeping and eye on and where are they?




Here is a good look at some of the upper level winds and where that low/trough is.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: heart out to all in Florida [Re: char]
      #24410 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:49 PM

shawn I know your hoping for a landfall my you in houston, but chances of that happeing are like 2%. I see you are saying though that it will probably be near western florida and you are in good odds with that. The trough that you say hasnt formed yet is already there. The strength of it compared to the strength of the ridge over the next 3-5 days is the key on where the turn will be,, Panama City? Tampa? Everglades? who knows right now, but will say this, it wont be a cat 5 when it makes landfall, infact it might not even be a cat4. Dryier air is going to be absorbed into the system after it get north of cuba. Also shear will start during that time frame. If it does make it north of 28dg and w of 83 then still cooler water from Frances will also inhibit strengthning. Right now I would say Cat 3 with winds around 125-130. Landfall I wont call yet till Friday evening. Basically though its a Florida call and to through in a if anything, a movement skimming the se florida coast isnt totally out of the question. Basically the NHC forcast looks on track.

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: heart out to all in Florida [Re: Benny]
      #24411 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:51 PM

Quote:

Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.

Can you post pictures on this forum?



Yes, you can post attachements. Make sure the checkbox next to preview/attach is checked when you create your post.

I expect there is a lot more in Cocoa Beach that would break if a Cat 4 or 5 hit there, I wouldn't be begging for one. There is certainly a whole lot of destruction that would happen if Ivan goes in around Tampa Bay. No reason to beg for destruction.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: IRONIC??? [Re: trinibaje]
      #24412 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:51 PM

Michael Moore will be having a field day with this... him and his conspiracy theories.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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scottsvb1
Unregistered




Re: heart out to all in Florida [Re: scottsvb1]
      #24413 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:51 PM

I think i really need to review my spelling instead of doing a paragraph in 20 sec and sending it. LOL

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rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Maps and long range forecasts [Re: AgentB]
      #24414 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:52 PM

Are ridiculous at this point. To show a landfall in South Florida is only because the NHC has to give us something. However, the forecast beyond 3 days is HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

As well, the models are in excellent agreement that Ivan the Terrible will traverse the southern high pressure ridge on a general wnw track for the next 3 days. In my mind, at the moment, that is ALL we can be sure of.

Therefore..NO one is out of the woods...from the Florida Keys to anywhere on the Gulf Coast.

I believe it must be a super precautionary move to begin evacuating the vacationers down in the keys...

These hurricanes, and the destruction...are in a SMALL window.

For instance..the hurricane passed about, what 80 miles north of Aruba..and the winds there were 40 mph max. Remember....it's really a little bulls eye..and kinda has to hit you on the chin to be a widow maker...100 miles this way or that...and it ain't much...
oh, and hope that you don't catch the right side of the storm too...

we will see


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Trough [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #24415 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:52 PM

Projected Path

Noone is out of the woods from New Orleans Eastward. We're not going to know till probably tomorrow or Saturday for 100% certain.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Jamaica, Caymans & 9/11 [Re: Benny]
      #24416 - Thu Sep 09 2004 12:54 PM

Afternoon all...been busy actually working today. Never been to Jamaica but I did vacation in Grand Cayman three or four years ago...our hotel was Still recovering from Gilbert...the beachfront went from about 200' to about 20'. In fact, the storm forced the previous hotel chain to fold its operations to another. I cannot imagine what Ivan will do to these areas who rely so heavily on tourism $$$.

As far as Saturday's date, I had made a personal commitment to myself that I would not post on that day, but it looks as though Ivan may change those plans...to those who talked about how the past two storms brought communities together...that's exactly the way it was up here after 9/11. Civility was the rule of thumb. Of course, it lasted all of about a month, but for a time, we were all brothers in arms.

My prayers go out to everyone affected by Charley and Frances...while still a ways out, it looks as though Ivan in a (hopefully) weakened state will enter South Florida West Coast (near the glades) shoot across exiting the east coast north of the space center, then take dead aim at Hattaras. Not a good scenario at all.

Good luck to all in his path.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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