LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
WELL SAID COLLEEN!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
You certainly have my sympathies concerning your mom. You are one of my favorite people on this site and I hate to hear of your loss.
I just watched CNN and the lady met on there said that the next 24hrs is very important to what may happen with . She said that over the past 100 years or so that 80-85% of systems that went south of Jamaica ended up going into the central gulf. Very interesting.
ShawnS
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
He's not getting any weaker...
09/1745 UTC 14.7N 71.8W T6.5/7.0
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
Sadie
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 44
Loc: Arcadia, FL
|
|
Quote:
I like the spaghetti model site, but it doesn't have a legend........ .... are there any good 'free' sites that show updated model runs with a legend?
I interested in getting this information too. Anywhere we can look?
Sadie, you can find most of what you are looking for right on this site. Click the storm links or go to the main page article.
--------------------
"...Grandmother the Earth. That power is here all the time. It is continuous, and nobody controls it." Wallace Black Elk, Lakota
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 07:21 PM)
|
GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 109
|
|
Hey C, you always have my support.
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
|
|
Steve, glad to see you back.... sorry about your mom
Going to do my part with a donation to the site as well...
Seems to me a major factor in final landfall will be the strength of the ridge off to the northeast.... water vapor loops show the ridge still building to the SW..... not sure if its going to be strong enough to push this beast as far west as MS/AL line.... not very likely but you never know.... I'll never say a hurricane will definitely not hit somewhere...
posted on storm2K four days ago I was really leaning towards Mobile and 25 miles to the east as a potential landfall area (possible, but not likely now).... thinking today is that I'm to far west.... best guess right now would be from PC to Tampa...... and leaning somewhere in the middle. I don't expect (or at least hope not) a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall, but a strong 3 (and I think shear will be the inhibiting factor for maximizing intensity) is no laughing matter either...... looks to be dead on with a collision course with Jamaica....
this was a season of all seasons.... unfortunately its still just about half way through......
|
rickonboat
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 90
|
|
Colleen...
I have suffered from a cat 3 hurricane, and multiple confrontations with other close calls. It has hit Florida twice, and no one, including me, thinks it's a joke. It's reality. And typing on these pages that a cat 5 is possible is reality..not wishcasting. I am sorry you are suffering, and if it makes you feel better to slam people on these pages, then do it. But lashing out at people that are as concerned as you does no one any good. We all handle adversity and trepidation and fear in different ways. Your way is your way...leave others theirs....
These storms are killers...there is global warming....more people are building on the coast...and on and on...we all knew times like these would come to Florida and the Gulf Coasts...
so here it is....a CAT 5...as i posted...is possible..though not probable...funny...no...reality...yes....
|
Tarpon
Unregistered
|
|
Good job Colleen. We had 71 mph gusts in Tarpon Springs last Sunday and I couldn't imagine what a Cat 2, 3, 4, or 5 would be like. I pray for a break this time around.
|
jaybythebay
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
Loc: Mobile,Al
|
|
THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN Thats all I have to say about all this bickering about were landfall is in 4 or 5 days. The people of Jamaica need our prayers now.
|
Richiesurfs
Unregistered
|
|
Way to go Colleen! You just expressed what 95% on this board are probably thinking. Im Richisurfs(remember me from last year?) ..a registered user but I lost my passcode. I live in Indialantic and have been up here in the panhandle with family since we had to evacuate. Our house made it thru ok but I'm sooo over these hurricanes this year! i used to love them for the surf but this year they are totally annoying me to say the least! Anyhow, I've been reading this whole season on here and like I said you just expressed what most on here are probably thinking. Well, lets see what happens with but i will take what the says over anybody as far as where this thing will wind up going. Oh well, I'm heading back home tomorrow..at least the panels are still up!
Hey, Richiesurfs! Welcome back. E-mail mike and he'll give you a temp password so you can log in!
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 07:31 PM)
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
If anyone "lost" the account or password email me at mike@flhurricane.com and I'll fix that. If you still can't log in make sure cookies are allowed for the site.
|
richiesurfs
Unregistered
|
|
Ok, thanks Phil and Mike...I'll do that!
|
Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
|
|
Thanks, Gary.
I know that the models and the forecasts and other weather factors play a huge role in where landfall occurs. However, after having gone through 2 hurricanes in less than a month, I've also noticed other things that can clue you into what the "authorities" and "officials" are thinking.
For instance, the evacuation of the Keys. Monroe County Emergency doesn't just issue a mandatory evacuation as a precautionary measure. First of all, it costs a LOT of money. To tell residents that 4 days before the storm *may* even hit them that they have to leave tells a tale of its own. When was the last time ANYONE was evacuated 5-6 days out? When was the last time anyone was evacuated BEFORE watches/warnings went up? We can sit here and say that it's because they have a lot of visitors there, but I can't imagine that they had that many considering the fact that just left us Tuesday morning. I certainly don't think it was done without consulting with the and Tallahassee.
2) I'm a good people watcher. I can spot a liar and a cheat a mile away. I'm looking at the local mets here and their faces alone tell the tale about . They've told us to keep up our plywood, and people have. Even the guy from Accuweather was on Fox's "On The Record" last night and when asked what advice he'd give to the residents of Florida, he said,
"Don't take the plywood off of your windows, because more than likely you'll just have to put it up again over the weekend. Restock items that you may have used....etc."
Science isn't an exact nature, we all know that by now. Just watch the people around you...the ones who know more than we do...and take the clues from them.
Anyway, just some food for thought. 
--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
|
mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
|
|
My hiubby is a family physician and he says he is seeing patients with post traumatic stress syndorme coupled with high anxiety.
I think everyone is on the edge. I know I am. I just wish the thing would come if it is going to and be out of here. The anticipation is making eme crazy. I am cutting a ton of slack with everyone I know due to the circumstances.
Helen in Orlando
|
alley
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
|
|
T6.5/7.0..........where do I find info on T? I know T shows strength but exactly what does the T stand for? Is there a site showing T1 through T-whatever?
This is my first post. Have been lurking through all of the hurricanes. I live in Oldsmar at the top of Tampa Bay. The storm surge got us w/Frances and we became part of the bay. I think if we're in the cone this Sat., we're just going to pack the RV and leave.
|
LI Phil
User
Reged:
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
This gives the #s
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
This gives the rankings for T #s
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
This explains the ranking system
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
recmod
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Hey Phil...
I believe that the recovery you witnessed was likely from 2001's Hurricane Michelle which caused severe damage on the north coast of Grand Cayman. I was there just last year and they were still rebuilding from that storm.
--Lou
I was there in 2000. I remember it because we went just after completing a second story addition on my house.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 07:49 PM)
|
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
|
|
Glad to be back on the forum again, been away for awhile. Here in South Fla we are on pins and needles again so soon after . My area (Ft Laud) wasn't hit too hard by just some Hurricane force gusts. Now there's the uncertainity again with ., local mets here are saying that he will slow down his forward speed after Jamaica and before Cuba, and after that there is some uncertainty, even though the models are pointing to a SW Fla hit or up the east GOM. Models will probably flip flop back and forth for awhile before we know the approx location of landfall in Fla, in the meantime i'm getting gas before we run out down here.
TG
|
SOFLHAPPYGAL
Unregistered
|
|
Great post Colleen. I have taken on the "hobby" of reading between the lines also. Here in Deerfield Bch we were lucky with and I just wish would go feed the fish somewhere. My heart goes out to all of you. Thank goodness this site is back up. I missed reading the posts.
|
alley
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 7
Loc: Tampa Bay
|
|
That was a speedy reply! Thank you so very much for the URLs. I appreciate this forum ...just wish I didn't need it so often.
That's what we're here for! Welcome aboard.
Edited by LI Phil (Thu Sep 09 2004 07:57 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
