MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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11PM
Ivan is holding at a category 4 level for now. The track remains very similar to the 5PM. The current forecast track has it skirting along the west coast of Florida into the big bend, but again even a slight error really can change this.
The good news is that shear is expected to develop so we may have another storm that weakens right before any landfall, but the otuflow is so good right now, it may not weaken as much as I'd hope. Intensity forecasts are by far the most prone to error, and this will have to be watched.
Original Update
Hurricane is back to Category 4, after an impressive run earlier today as a category 5.
It's expected to fluctuate in intensity, and again, the forecast track has moved a bit to the left. However the longer term forecast is still quite uncertain. It will be interesting to watch the model trends.
It may be going through a double eyewall cycle, which would explain the weaker winds. This would allow it to restrengthen once again once this cycle is over.
XML Current Storm Positions are now available at this link.
Also, Tropical depression 10 has already came and went, it's now has dissipated.
More to come later today.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks for the new thread Mike. You're doing an OUTSTANDING job.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve posted this in the previous thread, so I'm reposting it here for all to see:
I think that which is off of Tampa is the remains of an old frontal boundary. It doesn't look like the setup is there for anything to happen.
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Thanks to everyone for your kind words.
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Phil, you have to go to the "visible floater" because the East just shows the Gulf (or at least on my system that's all it did).
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The 5pm track is about what I expected from the TPC. They've nudged it west and made it look like a Big Bend threat. Most of the models are showing a due north motion, but I don't see it as pronounced as they do. While is moving at 300 degrees (10 degrees slightly closer to WNW than NW), it's going to have to edge up farther for them to hit the current track. I'd expect them to continue to nudge it gradually over the next few days. I also like one aspect of their 5 day which still shows the system over water. Tuesday IMHO is the earliest landfall time. It's probably going to be Wed.
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Bobbi,
Check out the High Res SST's . The coldest water in the Gulf is nearly 82 degrees, so there is plenty of support. Currently, the eastern and western Gulf have the most potential (as seen by the oranges on the map link).
Steve
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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The past two forecasts from the have slightly shifted west from both 11 am and 5 pm....
The question of the day is this trend going to continue... or will we see it shift back to the right?
Each slight shift west is just a little better for the west coast and not so good for the panhandle...
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Ah, was just about to post on the other thread when I saw this one up.
In any case, continues to be a very well-developed hurricane, and save for interactions with Jamaica, should continue to maintain it's intensity -- or perhaps restrengthen a bit -- over the next day to two and a half days. The eyewall replacement cycle shouldn't be all that unexpected -- it's been awhile since the last one took place, and storms rarely do maintain this high of an intensity for such a long period of time. What would be unexpected would be for the outer eyewall to collapse and leave the inner eyewall, which is what happened with ...and would unfortunately lead to even more strengthening.
In the short term, a track over the length of Jamaica -- or perhaps just south of such -- is a likely bet. There's support for this from the models and the observations. I'd trend towards just south of the island with the building ridge to the storm's north, but it's still going to rake the island sometime tomorrow.
Longer-term, a path near the Isle of Youth followed by a track over the short end of Cuba is where I am leaning now. There's not really anything to force it to go further north or east than that. As an aside, the seems to develop a peculiar weakness in the ridge currently to the north of the storm and propogate it westward, eroding the west side of the ridge and leading to the storm making an early turn northward. There are no indications this is taking place, yet alone will take place, so I feel that the Florida miss to the east can safely be put to rest. The spot near Cuba looks to be in about 3 days. intensity of 140kt may be a little high, but not too far off.
Beyond there, I tend to favor a northwest-north-northwest-north track towards the Florida panhandle. This is consistant with my thinking from yesterday and is reflected in one of the threads from before...the particular one escapes me at the moment, however. The impending trough, I do not feel, will not completely pick up this storm. While the models are getting a better handle on the strength of the ridge now than they did with , I think they are overdoing it with the extent and strength of the trough expected to turn . The observations, particularly to the south of the Mason/Dixon line, don't really support a sharp recurvature at this time.
It is of note that the storm should arrive to the coast in 4.5-6.5 days' time, depending on where it does make landfall. I believe 6 days is the most likely scenario for the Florida panhandle. It should also do so as a much weaker storm than it is now, albeit likely still a major hurricane. Think mid-3 to low-4 instead of 4/5. There is support in this track from the Superensemble, which as noted in a previous discussion follows this general track.
It's still too far out to pinpoint any set of locations, so everyone from NO east in the Gulf needs to watch this...but residents of the lower Keys and from between Biloxi and St. Marks need to watch this one closely. Pressed for a further narrowing of locations, I would look at Ft. Walton Beach to Apalachicola. In any event, this is going to be a storm that is going to affect a lot of people -- as it already has -- and I hope everyone's thoughts (and/or prayers) are with the residents of Jamaica for the coming day or two as this dangerous storm nears the island.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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I needed to clarify an edit point in the post Phil reposted. It was that the 300 degrees is about 10 degrees off from due NW (310 degrees) and 7.5 from true WNW (292.5 degrees).
Thanks,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am getting more and more concerned this afternoon about a Panhandle strike. The battle is, as it was with , the Ridge to the NE vs the approaching trough to the west. What concerns me is that ALL the US modelling was too far east with , and so far has been too far east and north with . Trends are very important here. I am afraid (for my sake, but not for S Fl) that the ridge AGAIN is underforecast by the US modelling suites, and that the Euro/Canadian track are more accurate. If you have Accuweather Pro, JB did a very good writeup today about his theories as to why that is.
Nevertheless, ALL residents of Florida are under the gun from ...however, my forecast focus, at least for now, is in the areas between Tampa and Mobile.
As always, your mileage may vary....
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Jason Kelley
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Here's the Tampa Bay NWS Discussion from this afternoon:
Quote:
LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...ALL EYES ON FOR THE SUN-TUE PERIOD. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL TRACK AFTER
72H. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH THE PREVIOUS 'CANES...THE UPPER PATTERN PUZZLE PIECES WILL HAVE TO FIT JUST RIGHT TO GIVE FLORIDA
ANOTHER DIRECT HIT. IN ADDITION...WHERE IT GOES OVER THE NEXT 72H WILL ALSO AFFECT INTENSITY ESPECIALLY SHOULD IT STRIKE JAMAICA.
THE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RIGHT BIAS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE COMING IN LINE AT 12Z WITH CONSENSUS FAVORING THE EASTERN GULF RATHER THAN THE ATLC. HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT FOR THREE DAYS IN A WORST-CASE TRACK ACROSS THE SUNCOAST...AND THE CANADIAN HAS BEEN SIMILAR. SEVERAL KEYS TO THE LONG RANGE EVOLUTION WILL BE...HOW STRONG NE U.S. TROUGH IS ON DAY 4...HOW LONG THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH DAY 3...AND WILL THERE BE A PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE FOR THE STORM TO TRACK THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...HOW MUCH SLOWING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE? THESE QUESTIONS WILL BE ANSWERED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
See, even THEY don't know the answers. has been showing almost the same path since I had the guts to look it at 3 days ago. UKMET too. Remember how they all came in line with and then ? I'm never eating spaghetti again.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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""I'm never eating spaghetti again."" Yeah Right Colleen.. hehe
Here is an interesing sat loop of ... after it runs click in the forecast box at the top to see the forecast overlay track in comparison with the actual sat loop..
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/ivan.html
I will NEVER give up spaghetti.... 
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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Lost my link to models, anybody got it handy?
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Updated detail map.
Full size image & others available at Skeetobite.com
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Frank, that is an awesome graphic. Thank you for posting that link. Will I be able to save that link and have it update from time to time?
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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http://cirrus.sprl.umich.edu/wxnet/model/model.html
There's the one I use.
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the gulf
Unregistered
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My question on the gulf was that if the trend continues wouldn't it help pull the storm north faster... sharper and weaken the opening in the ridge more.
Maybe it will die down after the sun goes down but as the day grows its beginning to look like a frontal boundary.
That was my question.
great dicsussion.. thanks jason and clark
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I swear I'm not lying about this..  ....if you click on the link, go up to the browser and highlight it, then save as "your favorites".
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Thanks, I did save it, and (go flyers) LOL
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The latest vortex message now has central pressure back down to 920mb with FL winds at 144knots. Could some intensification be happening again?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
--Lou
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okiherdu
Unregistered
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I have no idea what I'm doing here, except that I wanted to tell you all to keep up the good work. I've learned more here than I have in my almost 40 years or residence in Florida.
Max
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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some football?
Couplathree things. I don't know if anyone has seen the video, but the island of Grenada is basically destroyed. 90% of all homes are damaged or destroyed. Unfathomable damage/12 deaths/flooding...the whole 9. Good God, means business. Pray for Jamaica, mon. Then the Caymans, then Coobah...then...lets not go there yet.
Frances is still not done with the US. My area took heavy rains yesterday (5+" in NYC, subways flooded, rivers overflowing, you name it). Today, she's giving us her winds...just watch the US Open tennis and you'll get an idea. Obviously nothing which you Floridians faced and I'm not trying to compare it, but pretty impressive nonetheless.
The Donald's ego-inflating reality show debuts season 2 tonight. Another series I will NOT be watching...but...
The NFL kicks it off tonight...let's all watch some pro footie and get our minds off for a few hours...and the pre-game show...well...something for everyone. No Janet thankfully.
TD10 may become Jeanine (sp?) eventually, but hard to say right now...fishspinner we hope. Whatever the "L" storm is should be Florida's next bad headache...A(lex) B(onnie) Charley; D(anielle), E(arl), F(rances); G(aston), H(ermine), I(van); J(eanine), K(arl), L(isa).
Lets hope not.
My thinking is that definitely gets back to CAT V (although at 150 mph, what's the difference) before striking Jamaica. We better HOPE it crosses Jamaica (not for the Jamaican's sake though) rather than miss it south or it could be an even bigger world of hurt down the road. And also, lets pray for a trek across the MOUNTAINS of Cooba, not the narrow flat part where chose to cross.
OK, that's it for now...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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It looks like it might be restrengthining...we'll find out at 8pm. This track has shifted left, right, left, right, left...you get the idea, huh? It's going to keep doing that, probably until the stupid thing makes landfall SOMEWHERE. Watch for a continuing trend either way during the next 48 hours and you'll have a pretty good idea of the general direction of where it's going. Tampa Bay escaped a direct hit with hours before landfall...by 70 miles. So, it does make a HUGE difference in the long run. The thing with (or any hurricane for that matter) is that so many people are just waiting with bated breath for every scrap of information we can get that we drive ourselves insane. Take me for example, I'm insane.
I noticed on the last loops that it might have taken a jog to the north, or that may have been the eye jumping, I don't know. I'm not saying it's going due north, it just looked like it took a little jog to the north.
Speaking of weather, our stinks. I just sat in the parking lot at the highschool where my kids play youth football for 47 minutes while lightning was striking all over the place. Do you have any idea what it's like to sit in a car that long with 2 kids in full gear?  The coach for my one son's team came over and said, "Practice is off, see ya Saturday" at 6:15. The other one (who thinks you can't get struck by lightning because you're a football player) made me wait another 20 minutes. I finally just told him, "Look, these storms are rotating around, they aren't leaving, but I am. If you want to sit out here and walk around, fine. Now you've got kids running around, in the rain, while the lightning is flashing all over. BAD EXAMPLE, COACH."
He finally cancelled it.
It's still storming. We must have gotten 3" of rain. Just what we needed. Sheesh. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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