MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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I could be wrong, but I don't remember hail being associated with the tornadoes directly associated with the landfalling hurricanes. Maybe a met could chime in.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I got this snipped from the Internet...so it must be true  :
If a hurricane threatens, evacuate if told to do so, they produce flooding, lightning, tornadoes, hail, severe storms and high winds.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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I'm thinking big storms don't make real turns that fast.... It has to be a jog....
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Wow, I feel so much better! 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Not exactly Phil...
Tornadoes are formed from thunderstorms which ALSO form hail., but tornadoes don't form hail...one doesn't cause the other, but are results of the same parent...
Tropical cyclones are, by defination, warm core, which means that the center of the storm in the mid-levels is warmer than the surrounding atmosphere. Hail forms from strong updrafts that carry liquid water above the freezing level. In a tropical cyclone, the updrafts are very different, and the liquid water rarely makes it to the freezing level because it is so much higher than in a regular thunderstorm.
Make sense?
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Fri Sep 10 2004 05:14 PM)
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I posted on the last thread before I was aware of this new one but in it I said that looking at the WV loops and thought there might be a chance that could go more on a northerly track and miss Florida to the east. I still think the upper low to the ne of him is having some sort of effect. I may have said something else in that post but I don't recall everything I said. It is on the old thread,though.
ShawnS
Shawn
Here's your post from the previous forum:
Again, I'm not that good at looking at the wv and telling what will effect these storms so bear with me but it looks like to me that may want to go on a more northerly track much sooner than expected and miss Florida altogether. Please correct me if I'm way off here, but please be nice...LOL!
ShawnS
Edited by LI Phil (Fri Sep 10 2004 05:18 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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But hurricanes can, in certain rare instances, form hail, correct?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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ivan should be making an impact on the gulf coast.. probably on tuesday. i've been hanging on a west florida hit below apalachicola.. going to narrow my window from st marks down to naples now. late tomorrow i'll be ready to draw an X.
with almost utter certainty that florida takes a hit on the gulf side, intensity is the big question remaining. latest IR shows a reorganizing inner core.. wouldn't be surprised if the storm goes back to borderline 5 as it impacts jamaica later. the official track has it grazing the southwest side of jamaica.. i'm expecting it to go onshore, with the capital seeing eyewall effects. right of the caymans as a 4, and a cuba crossing south of the florida keys..also as a 4, with the storm having turned nnw at that point. final impact on west florida should be a cat 2 or 3. the higher up the coast it hits, the weaker. kinda duh, since this is more or less the official, but i'm thinking the official is on the ball for now.
one thing not previously mentioned that troubles me greatly.. creeks and rivers are running high in much of florida, the southeast coastal plain, piedmont, and southern appalachians. with progged to move over the same area, decelerating and bending back to the left as ridging rebuilds.. tremendous flooding potential exists in wake. the west coast of florida looks to take a hammer blow, but that likely won't be the end of the story.
elsewhere nothing exciting in the basin. weak low on a wave nearing the islands (14/58 or so).. some convection, but it's awfully close behind . low prob of development. wave midway between africa and the islands low-amplitude and indistinct. wave that left the coast yesterday with some amplitude and gyration near the cape verde islands.. not very perky at this point.
td 10 remnants south of the azores drifting SE.. SSTs low and shear not good at this point, but it still has a comma-shaped convective signature sheared east.. and the upper environment should revert to ridging in a day or two.. don't expect anything though.
the complex upper trough/low arrangement in the central atlantic may beget a surface system, but too confused at this point to make any reasonable guesses. it has entrained lots of tropical energy, and plenty of low level convergence there.. just hasn't evolved to where it can spawn anything.
td 13e in the eastpac has another development counter going in the atlantic. may see another storm or two next week. peak of the season now.
HF 2115z10september
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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it must have been a jog because it has already jumped back to the west some,again.
ShawnS
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Just spoke to Kingston, they lost power about an hour ago.. Winds are very strong, heavy rain and getting worse..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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It's highly improbable that it will miss Jamaica to the east. Looking at multiple loops, this northly bounce comes right after a fairly lengthly westerly jog. Hurricanes just do that. Go figure, huh?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Full size images available at Skeetobite.com
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Gonna stick with my crow munching forecast...
In at Naples, Tuesday afternoon, CAT III...out at the Cape, Wednesday afternoon, CAT I. Onward to Hattaras...weak CAT II Thursday evening.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Yes, but it is exceedingly rare, and almost exclusively happens after the hurricane makes landfall, or is generally aloft and never makes it down to the surface...I have never heard of hurricanes producing hail at the surface in the tropics or Florida (doesn't mean it hasn't happened, but I haven't heard of it).
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Jason Kelley
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Shawn, that wasn't me......
I am not hard to recognize, i am the one with the pointy ears!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I believe the other night when they found the 160-165mph there were reports of hail and lightning.
FWIW, the mets here are saying what's keeping the westward track IS the ensemble track, which he said started last night. One said if the trend is still to the west tonight, we'll probably see them shift the track more westward at 11.
Which really isn't all that surprising, given the fact that they have been stressing THE CONE for days now.
Anyone in the Orland/Tampa Area that can get Channel 9 (Channel 20 in Polk County/Lakeland Area) this might interest you: Tom Terry is going to go over ALL the models so we can (hopefully) get a better idea as to why they're thinking what they're thinking. 
Jason, does the ensemble normally do a better job than all the other models? Is that why they rely on it so heavily?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Colleen - where did you hear that - was it with over Grenada?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I heard it from Warren Madden on the other night when they updated the winds to 160mph. The plane reported hail and lightning. I think that was Wednesday night around 1:45am.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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TLHJeff
Unregistered
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Actually they often do produce hail. However this is usually limited to the freezing level (about 10,000 feet) in the stronger convection and melts before it reaches the ground. Hurricane convection generally lacks the vertical instability to produce the really strong up/downdrafts conducive to large hail-most of the energy is horizontally stratified in the system's high winds. The recons have reported hail at flight level in several hurricanes this season. It seems to become more common as the systems move north and interact with continental air masses in their outer feeder bands.
Speaking of convection, I noted that the leading feeder band on the west side of , as it moved offshore south of Tampa, suddenly started producing HUGE amounts of lightning over the Gulf, as opposed to few strikes over land. Interesting.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Allrighty then, thanks. I thought there were ground reports somewhere. Jason, or anybody who knows - is hail uncommon to the aircraft hunters or is it just a rare sea-level hurricane phenom?
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