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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
14.0N 56.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
W at 25 mph
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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Forecast tracks/Model Tracks... [Re: HCW]
      #25036 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:48 PM

The Official NHC forecast at 5 shifted slightly to the left....but not as far left as the models have shifted today.

The more accurate modelling has indeed shifted to the west today....the most significant being the ECMWF, which has bird-dogged Ivan thru the Keys and up the EAST coast for the last several days...it has now settled in with a Big-Bend landfall...the rest of the more reliable track modelling has shifted to the west as well in the 12 and 18Z runs.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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ThirdRay
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Lakeland, Fl
Re: ivan/little else [Re: tenavilla]
      #25037 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:49 PM

What's funny about Channel 8 and there Viper commericials is that they only bothered to brag about having had the correct path of Charlie AFTER it had turned. Also it was that Channel that had told Tampa for 3 days to evacuate to PORT CHARLETE and Orlando !!!!

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: ivan/little else [Re: ThirdRay]
      #25038 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:51 PM

I know, I was a little frustrated with that. However...I'm trying to pay attention to what people other than the NHC are saying since you never know who will be accurate this time. I just hate to put all my eggs in one basket and assume that TWC or NHC are the only ones that are ever correct.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
pressure drop [Re: ThirdRay]
      #25039 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:52 PM

929
URNT12 KNHC 102222
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2222Z
B. 17 DEG 05 MIN N
76 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2456 M
D. 115 KT
E. 055 DEG 017 NM
F. 142 DEG 122 KT
G. 058 DEG 013 NM
H. 927 MB
I. 9 C/ 3060 M
J. 19 C/ 3046 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A Ivan OB 24
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 2218Z.


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: pressure drop [Re: MrSpock]
      #25040 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:53 PM

Just saw that as well - down to 927 MB

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: pressure drop [Re: MrSpock]
      #25041 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:53 PM

That looks like 13 mbs in the last few hours, and if I am not mistaken, the eye temp has risen a little also.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: ivan/little else [Re: ThirdRay]
      #25042 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:54 PM

TWC just said they got an update and the pressure is now down to 927 from 933. That's not good.

Another problem with storms coming from this angle is that you just don't know until hours before landfall where it will be. It's such an odd angle, even 3 days out the cone is just huge.


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: ivan/little else [Re: tenavilla]
      #25043 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:59 PM

In a related development, it looks like the circulation has completely overcome the dry air intrusion I saw earlier, which is probably why the pressure has fallen. The western eye wall is still thinner than the rest, but overall presentation has shown better organization. I really hope this doesn't hit Jamaica full force.
I did catch an interview earlier with a Jamaican official who said many homes were built of brick top to bottom, so he thought they were stronger than of those in Grenada.


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: ivan/little else [Re: tenavilla]
      #25044 - Fri Sep 10 2004 06:59 PM

Does anyone have any idea why Accuweather's forecast is so different from the others? They still have landfall at Tampa.

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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Just an FYI [Re: tenavilla]
      #25045 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:11 PM

Our Morning News Anchor, Jeremy Pate, and Ashley Brand, Weekend Meteorologist at WTVY in Dothan, AL (our sister station) are flying with the hurricane hunters out of Biloxi tomorrow night...I will try to give updates or post pictures as I get them.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: ivan/little else [Re: meto]
      #25046 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:11 PM

Not only has the ridge stopped moving, it looks like it might be eroding away already. But I don't know if that will change the track any, that has been predicted all along about this point.

Bill


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: Just an FYI [Re: wxman007]
      #25047 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:15 PM

Very nice - I'd love to see some pictures from Ivan.

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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Re: ivan/little else [Re: BillD]
      #25048 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:44 PM

Glad to see the site back up - thanks for all your efforts, Mike.

Looks to me like Ivan is putting on it's game face for Jahmaica. Many satellite images show it getting very symmetrical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html

Edited by ShaggyDude (Fri Sep 10 2004 07:46 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Site Problems/WV Loops [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #25049 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:49 PM

Mike, thanks again for getting this site back on line...I was down for about 30 min.

Losing visibles, but check out this water vapor loop.

Looks like Ivan's heading straight for Kingston...

Also, various sources are reporting many Jamaican's not obeying mandatory evac orders...one can only assume they'd rather face Ivan than looters. That's such a shame. Mandatory curfew's have been ordered, meaning that if you're on the streets, they WILL arrest you.

Pray for Jamaica...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: ivan/little else [Re: ShaggyDude]
      #25050 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:49 PM

I know that it is still to early to tell what or where Florida's fate will be. I have a hard time with the track off the coast to the panhandle. Don't know too much, but that spaghetti model tells a different story. If the projection is off the coast, all the way up, it will keep everyone's attention and people will be prepared, but not cause panic. Just a silly thought in my mind, as people were really acting like fools in my town today. Most importantly my thoughts are with Jamaica now.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
Stronger Ivan [Re: LI Phil]
      #25051 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:55 PM

Ivan's up to 150 mph

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.public.html

"..and it is possible that Ivan could regain category 5
status as it passes Jamaica."

Edited by ShaggyDude (Fri Sep 10 2004 07:56 PM)


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sullynole
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: ivan/little else [Re: tenavilla]
      #25052 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:56 PM

wasn't it about three days before that NHC had the track into the Ft. Myers area or was it earlier than that? it would make sense that they were advertising that landfall then?

I am not saying that particular station is not a good source, I am just saying don't put all your weight in that for shifting the official track. models shift, thats what they do. Truthfiully, the general public should not be watching any models... many people tend to focus on the track of one of the models and get hyped up about nothing. Only meteorologists (or very experienced trackers who could be considered meteorologists in that sense) can really weigh the models while looking at what is going on in the atmosphere.

--------------------
John


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: ivan/little else [Re: Heather]
      #25053 - Fri Sep 10 2004 07:57 PM

WOW, This isnt looking good for Jamaica. If pressure continues to drop in the next 2 or 3 hours before landfall I'd expect a borderline Cat4/Cat5 at landfall. Winds are probably increasing as we speak. By tomorrow I think Ivan could bomb like Gilbert, maybe not on that level but back to a 5 nonetheless.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: ivan/little else [Re: DroopGB31]
      #25054 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:02 PM

Unfortunately, I gotta agree with drooper...Ivan is definitely strengthening just in time to whallop poor Jamiaca...We need another ERC and SOON! Otherwise, I'm guessing he's probably at CAT V status or damn close right now...

God...can you imagine those poor bastids who ignored evac orders...with no power...sitting in their ramshackle homes with a shotgun in hand (to fend off the inevitable looters) and not knowing what they are about to face?

I don't even want to think about the number of fatalities right now...but I can only surmise it will be in the hundreds, if not thousands...

Pray for Jamaica.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: ivan/little else [Re: sullynole]
      #25055 - Fri Sep 10 2004 08:05 PM

They were forecasting Ft. Myers early, then Tampa. Actually, they were still forecasting Tampa when Charley made the abrupt turn into Port Charlotte.

I don't listen to just one model, I actually channel hop/surf the net to see what everyone is saying. What I'm trying to figure out is why the majority of the models say one thing, and the official track is something else. It seems that they take the eastern outlier and the western outlier and plunk the official right in the middle. That's even when I've looked at the models and at times not one of them agree with the official. Seems strange.

Incidentally, I'm not completely ignorant in this area, I have a science background and teach high school science (including earth science). Don't get me wrong, I'm not anywhere close to a met, but I do have a basic education in this area.


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