Bev
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I'm certainly not a meteorologist but I know a fair bit about psychology. I've been wondering to myself if the Westward shift of the track had more to do with psychology than meteorology.
The was blasted by some of the public for "Not Warning Us!" While the accusation was completely unfair, they had certainly stated time and again that there was an error of margin, stay on your toes, the storm could go anywhere in this range.
Nevertheless, the little dart showing the eye stayed right on Anna Maria Island for a very long time and people North and South watched the dart and became complacent.
I would not be surprised to see this track kept just off the coast until shortly before landfall. It keeps everyone on their toes instead of just a few of us.
I'm not saying it will or it won't hit in Tampa, I don't think anyone can say that until about an hour before it lands. But by keeping the dart from getting stuck in one point, the keeps all the Gulf Coast and Panhandle on their toes. As it should!
Just my thoughts...
-Bev
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Heather
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Loc: Sebring, FL
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That's exactly what I'm thinking. Would be nice if it took a long ride and the Gulf and then fizzled out, though.
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When it rains, it pours...
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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They are arguing among themselves on the fcst tracks. Read this from the 4pm discussion.
...AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
edited to avoid confusion-danny
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:22 AM)
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BillD
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I would agree that there is a good possiblity that keeping the track a little to the right was to keep people on their toes. But there are probably other reasons as well. One is that the models are still flucuating back and forth to some degree, and they don't all agree. There is also the fact that the SENS and the did very well with and . The we can see, the model we can't. There are other models that are not publicly available either. So don't discount that they have sources of information we do not. But I've been saying it now for several days, I really think they are not sure where it is going to go and are not going to commit to any extreme, they can't.
Bill
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MrSpock
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It is my opinion that there is no need to alter a track to get attention, especially since everyone in Florida is watching and preparing anyway. The in my opinion is above that, and their only concern is getting right as best as they can. The ramifications for anything other than that are too great.
Don't forget, there are models that are further east-the has been persistantly east. On the sat pics I watch, I overlay the forecast position, and the actual track has been ever so slightly NE of forecast anyway.
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LI Phil
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Mr. Spock,
Kirk here. Agreed...don't think the has any ulterior motives...why would they?
All in all your post was very logical, as one would expect from a half vulcan/half human. 
Give my regards to Sarek.
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Rasvar
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Not sure about saying the did very well. It spent a lot of time aiming at South Carolina. However, I think it is more of an issue of trying to keep Tampa awake. Granted, everything is still in the area. Only thing that concerns me is that everyone here has a hypersenitivity to the track right now. I heard folks who live in Lakeland saying that they are glad it is going to miss them this afternoon after the track moved west. Truthfully, I think a little track uncertainty is better to keep people in tune.
However, going into the weekend, I also see the point of trying to keep Tampa from thinking they are safe and then getting caught off guard.
With all that said, I have no idea exactly what they are using to decide. There is a little sensitivity in Central Florida after the way caught everyone off guard with his power. Plus, I see friction with the local stations and in public. WFTV's Tom Terry already came on before the vs Miami game and more or less said he disagrees with 's track. So, that will fuel the fires a bit around here.
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MrSpock
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Thank you, will do, and I have calculated that there is a 98.763584956043% chance it is legit.
Live Long and Prosper
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ShaggyDude
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Well, I just got a days worth of free Accuweather info on foxnews. JB was on there giving a little demo on the hurricane and his graphics, though no specifics; whatdaya expect anyways?
I don't know about you, but i was always more a Picard man than a Kirk guy...
Sorry Phil, couldn't resist. I guess I just ran out of gas (rim shot).
Edited by ShaggyDude (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:33 AM)
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LI Phil
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OK...it's my fault for bringing the whole thing up...but we need to stay on topic...no more Trek stuff...again it's my own damn fault but let's keep it on , not Picard now.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Wxwatcher2
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II'm watchin for a bit of a Northward jog which will move the track more East. Just a hunch on my part.
Poor Jamaica. Reports of looting and damage already coming in.
Live long and prosper........(how do you do that thing with your fingers?).......huh...!!
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MrSpock
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I have been trying to set up a duel between Picard and Kirk for a while. The hangup is they can't agree on the holodeck to be used.
Granted, the has been woefully too far east for too long, but it has been persistent. Part of me is wary of trying to nail something down while this is going on. The has performed well at times, and in fact, has been too far WEST other times. I do agree with Joe B. on one thing in particular: The Carolinas are in for another heavy rain event, and the has been persistent in trapping it to some degree, or at least slowing it down.
(edited part) The 's performance I am referring to is definitely not the recent set of storms, but over the last couple of years. I think most forecasters take RECENT biases in effect, until they are no longer valid
Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:38 AM)
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ShaggyDude
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Back to subject, is prepin' it's A game for Jamaica, satellites show it very organized. - Check the forecast points, and you'll see it's moving a little right of the forecast track.
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RBL
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Miami Fl
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Good nigth every body, look the last es more EAST.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_fpc.shtml
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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Is there an itty bitty high pressure or vortex just to the nw of or does it just appear that way on the WV because of the way the clouds are moving?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
ShawnS
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Sorry I had to!
Latest GHCC loop seems to indicate a "left turn ". Looks to be a near 90 degree turn toward the west from 2245 to 0015Z. Good and bad for Jamaica. They Do know how to deal with lawbreakers in Jamaica, and it's Not pretty!
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ShaggyDude
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Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Using the latest info, Phil's crow-eating prediction is on target, though, it's just one model at one point in time against the and . I'm trying Phil, but we'll see. I'm with JB where it probably comes in around Tampa and most likely out the Jacksonville area and bad news later for the Carolinas.
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StormHound
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
II'm watchin for a bit of a Northward jog which will move the track more East. Just a hunch on my part.
Poor Jamaica.
Tom Terry started to go down this path (East track) during the 6pm newscast, then decided not to disagree with the quite so blatantly. He stopped short and then just said, "I'll keep watching it closely."
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Storm Hound
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HCW
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is 926mb still the latest recon ?
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MrSpock
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I am not sure if I see what you do, but wow, did that and eyewall come back or what? I hadn't seen a photo in an hour or 2, and it certainly got its western flank back.
In the interest of not being a post hog, I'll edit this to respond to the above post. The map that shows the model's forecast tracks is showing 2 of 5 going back out over the Atlantic, 1 being close, and 2 near Tampa. If I were to build the consensus, I would say 5 of 6 are from Tampa eastward. Granted, there are other models, but I am sure this is the uncertainty the is looking at as well.
Edited by MrSpock (Sat Sep 11 2004 12:48 AM)
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