scottsvb1
Unregistered
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They have that guy from the onboard the recon for this flight and next few, im sure it was him who reported that to as he is working for them. I do expect the winds to be back up to Cat 5 at 5am,,, pressure who knows.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Haven't seen this posted yet, but the shifted west too with the 00Z run, now calling for landfall in ~96hr near Tampa Bay on a north to north-northeast heading into the Lake City area, then into Georgia along the coast, followed by a journey up to Columbia, SC and a north-northwestward movement into the Appalachians. Would not be surprised to see a bit further west track at 5a...one which I don't plan on being awake to see.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Loc:
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clark, when do sat pics come back on line?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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A track you may not want to see either!
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Duncan
Unregistered
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Maybe the Weather Channel recieved wrong information. I just have a hard time believing that a storm can intensify 35 MPH, especially when the eye is that close to land. If true, that is just amazing.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Gee, thanks, Daniel. Now I'll NEVER sleep tonight, ROFLOL! FWIW, I saw 2 turtles crossing the road today (at a very slow place) and my husband said he saw a dead alligator on SR 60 in Bartow.
As far as the pressure drop....remember the other night when it jumped up to 160mph? The lowest pressure at one point was 915mb on Thurs. 5AM advisory. I wouldn't be surprised at all given the fact that it hasn't made landfall ...yet.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 110612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0612Z
B. 17 DEG 22 MIN N
77 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2425 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 020 DEG 138 KT
G. 290 DEG 016 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 10 C/ 3073 M
J. 17 C/ 3052 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO12-40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.0 NM
P. AF963 1809A OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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I dunno bout that vortex message but I think it "may" have been true. Just a classic case of being alittle conservative and not jumping the gun maybe? They could be trying to keep the message away from the public until a few more recon passes can verify whether or not it was true. This is just my best guess for now.
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jth offline
Unregistered
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Want to go to sleep, but I can't until I find out if the pressure really did fall that much and I see the newest sat picks. Sad I know.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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M. CO12-40..........(concentric eyewalls at 12 and 40 miles)
P. AF963 1809A OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT W QUAD 0607Z....(158.91mph/flt lvl or 143mph at the surface)
There's the vortex. I don't know where Dave got his info. However this is now 33 minutes old. I appologize for creating a stir. I won't quote anymore!
Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 11 2004 06:46 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Wxwatcher, they will be available probably in a half-hour or so. The eclipse period is ending about now, but there is some delay before new images are available.
New vortex out...no confirmation of 905mb or intense flight level winds...
(edited to remove...it's already twice above)
Essentially, the minimum pressure isn't as low as the 2am advisory, while the flight level winds are still catching up to the low pressure. The storm is healthy, but not as healthy as a 905mb pressure. Perhaps they recoded those winds at a pressure level of 905mb, or a few hundred meters above the surface -- that is believeable...just not a surface pressure that low, at least not yet (gulp).
That's all for this evening...get some rest everyone, and good night.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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Edited by Clark (Sat Sep 11 2004 06:42 AM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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He didn't mention storm surge, only said that the entire state could see extremely bad conditions even if it just skirts the coast. I don't even want to think what an actual landfalling hurricane would be like.
I feel like a little kid breaking my curfew...I have a LONG day tomorrow....I should have been sleeping hours ago. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
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Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Hey Clark, Wasnt the 920mb pressure estimated, not actually measured? That could be why its 923, since an estimate isnt perfect. Otherwise, probably some very strong winds in the NE quad, wish they could get in there and sample it. Looking at the TCHP I think if can avoid some shear and an he'll probably hit cat5
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mikeG
Unregistered
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got to be warren sending info..... what does line M. mean?
could be possible...they went inbound on west side....near 290....strongest could be ne side
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mikeG
Unregistered
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TWC just showed ob 9
fl lv at 7596ft
wonder if concentric eyewall has something in there?
press....923
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john03
Unregistered
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URNT11 KNHC 110645
97779 06454 70161 76309 30600 21043 10079 /3089
RMK AF963 1809A OB 14
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Line "M". Concentric eyewalls. Inner and Outer eyewalls. Rare phenomenon that appears when the storm is going through eyewall replacement cycles. Outer wall develops, and replaces the Inner wall. The outer wall then shrinks as the pressure drops and wind speed increase.
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mikeG
Unregistered
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just saw 645 sat shot
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mikeG
Unregistered
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looks like eye missed well south of island.... more of west than north track
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MikeG
Unregistered
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sat shot
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