Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Ivan has a definate stair step pattern in his motion. Fifteen minute intervals seem to show the true general motion. Looks like it will be a very close run at Grand Cayman. Possibly a direct hit. I don't think frictional issues will save Grand Cayman like Jamacia was spared. If does hit Cuba, I actually think the frictional pattern will pull him slightly to the east for a short time and then he will resume his course.
This far out, I am leery of any forecast that is after landfalll in Cuba. The weaker becomes on his transverse of Cuba will probaby help dictate the what happens afterward. I think a stronger storm will trend further west then a weaker storm. No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. However, I doubt that there will be a swing towards the Keys or SW Florida. I would not take a chance, though.
Edit to change prior to landfall to after landfall. [I had a brain fart while typing]
Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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I voted no, too ... I think the chances of recon being there when it does drop below 900mb are slim. Would be awesome to see, though ... as long as it's not at the expense of the Cayman islands.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Thx, LI Phil, "rule" has a somewhat long online history. 
Actually, I'm kind of hoping drops into the 8's. I do think.. (hope!) that it's West of Grand Cayman.. (but at this point.. at this strength.. it may not matter... ) A graze is as good as a hit.
Probably not make much difference for the Cayman. 910mb vs. 895mb... your roof still blows off..
Ugh.
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tenavilla
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I think that's the upper level low that they have been saying will erode the ridge to allow to go north.
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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Was just thinking the same thing, recon won't be back out there for another 4 or 5 hours. It could peak and then weaken before they get there.
Bill
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
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Quote:
The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the is predicting.
I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I'd like to see the trough that's able to "pick up" ....
Why does the Weather Channel spell it "trof" anyway?
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captgene
Verified CFHC User
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most weather is by nature , either u get it or not, don't over think it or be in harms way
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tenavilla
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Quote:
I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.
I don't see anything in the next 48 hrs either, I'm referring to when it makes it to the GOM. The only thing that's going to affect it's track now is when it finds the weakness, or end, of the ridge to the east. Then, it will finally start that NW movement across Cuba and into the Gulf.
Edited to change "or the ridge" to "of the ridge"
Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM)
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LI Phil
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I've always spelled it trof, JB spells it trof and spells it trof. It's not correct, but it's quick... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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trof is also the abbreviation used by NWS forecast offices in their Forecast Discussions.
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tenavilla
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Loc: Tampa Area
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I think it's a short-cut spelling, but who knows. From what I gather, they expect it to work the same way it did with . Someone, can't remember who, referred to it as a rail. Once hits it, it's just follows the outer edge all the way up N or NE. Just like it's been following this ridge all the way west.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I stand corrected. "trof" it is!
Meanwhile, is going West again!?
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danielw
Moderator
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Last Vortex report, again had double/ concentric eyewalls. Starting another eyewall replacement cycle. I wonder if he will spin up some more or maintain his current parameters.
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RevUp
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Yes, it has to get to the GOM first. 
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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This thing is wobbling like it's got 3 bad legs...I think overall trend is still WNW. After west movement, a couple of frames almost NW, then W, hence the average.
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tenavilla
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Quote:
Meanwhile, is going West again!?
Sure looks like it's barely north of west.
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rule
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ocala, Florida
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Man... I'm about to deal Cuba out of the picture entirely. This thing may Thud into Mexico.
Crazy, I know... Just a thought. WV shows nothing but clear sailing W.
The 5am from should be interesting.
The Eye is really getting stong, I see. 800's here we come!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Mr Spock, I agree, looks overall wnw on average, not 292.5 true wnw, more like 285 degrees heading... I also voted no to below 900, but if it happens I think it will happen before Coou ba..... such a rare event that doesn't happen to often.... saying that, nothing would surprise me with this bad boy
Geesh, can you imagine the panic along the GOM if this were to get below 900 in the GOM... I don't even want to think about it.... I just don't see that as a real possible scenario as shear is expected in the GOM and it won't have the great environmental conditions it has at the moment... everything has to be perfect for a Cat 5.... right now its perfect..
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LI Phil
User
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Can you guys get me thru to 12?
Local news here has 2 top stories. One is , can you guess the other.
I've got tears upwelling right now...this is very difficult..need something to take my mind off the damn date!
I remember being on this site on 9/11 when the planes hit...we had about one hour before all of our t-1 lines went down for a week...and the sympathy expressed here was incredible...
sorry...I said I wasn't going to bring it up but now it's real and it's killing me.
God bless the Caymans
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
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