Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


The Atlantic is mostly quiet
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Michael) , Major: 9 (Michael) Florida - Any: 9 (Michael) Major: 9 (Michael)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | >> (show all)
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Movement [Re: rule]
      #25555 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

Ivan has a definate stair step pattern in his motion. Fifteen minute intervals seem to show the true general motion. Looks like it will be a very close run at Grand Cayman. Possibly a direct hit. I don't think frictional issues will save Grand Cayman like Jamacia was spared. If Ivan does hit Cuba, I actually think the frictional pattern will pull him slightly to the east for a short time and then he will resume his course.


This far out, I am leery of any forecast that is after landfalll in Cuba. The weaker Ivan becomes on his transverse of Cuba will probaby help dictate the what happens afterward. I think a stronger storm will trend further west then a weaker storm. No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down. However, I doubt that there will be a swing towards the Keys or SW Florida. I would not take a chance, though.

Edit to change prior to landfall to after landfall. [I had a brain fart while typing]

Edited by Rasvar (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:35 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: rule]
      #25556 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:32 PM

I voted no, too ... I think the chances of recon being there when it does drop below 900mb are slim. Would be awesome to see, though ... as long as it's not at the expense of the Cayman islands.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: LI Phil]
      #25557 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

Thx, LI Phil, "rule" has a somewhat long online history.

Actually, I'm kind of hoping Ivan drops into the 8's. I do think.. (hope!) that it's West of Grand Cayman.. (but at this point.. at this strength.. it may not matter... ) A graze is as good as a hit.

Probably not make much difference for the Cayman. 910mb vs. 895mb... your roof still blows off..

Ugh.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: captgene]
      #25558 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

I think that's the upper level low that they have been saying will erode the ridge to allow Ivan to go north.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: RevUp]
      #25559 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:37 PM

Was just thinking the same thing, recon won't be back out there for another 4 or 5 hours. It could peak and then weaken before they get there.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25560 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:41 PM

Quote:

The thinking by the local mets is that it will hit that trough and get "picked up" by it, thus causing the N to NE turn the NHC is predicting.


I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25561 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM

I'd like to see the trough that's able to "pick up" Ivan....

Why does the Weather Channel spell it "trof" anyway?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
captgene
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 13
Re: Canadian Club for Steve? [Re: LI Phil]
      #25562 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:42 PM

most weather is by nature , either u get it or not, don't over think it or be in harms way

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: RevUp]
      #25563 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM

Quote:

I don't think the models figured in the strength of the mid-upper level ridge ahead of the trof. The trof hasn't pushed far enough south in the Gulf and Ivan hasn't moved far enough north, so I don't see what's going to lift Ivan northward anytime soon at this point in time. I'm expecting to see Ivan remain south of Cuba for next 48 hours.




I don't see anything in the next 48 hrs either, I'm referring to when it makes it to the GOM. The only thing that's going to affect it's track now is when it finds the weakness, or end, of the ridge to the east. Then, it will finally start that NW movement across Cuba and into the Gulf.

Edited to change "or the ridge" to "of the ridge"

Edited by tenavilla (Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25564 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:44 PM

I've always spelled it trof, JB spells it trof and TWC spells it trof. It's not correct, but it's quick...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: LI Phil]
      #25565 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:46 PM

trof is also the abbreviation used by NWS forecast offices in their Forecast Discussions.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25566 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:47 PM

I think it's a short-cut spelling, but who knows. From what I gather, they expect it to work the same way it did with Charley. Someone, can't remember who, referred to it as a rail. Once Ivan hits it, it's just follows the outer edge all the way up N or NE. Just like it's been following this ridge all the way west.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25567 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:48 PM

I stand corrected. "trof" it is!

Meanwhile, is Ivan going West again!?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Ivan Again Category Five [Re: BillD]
      #25568 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM

Last Vortex report, again had double/ concentric eyewalls. Starting another eyewall replacement cycle. I wonder if he will spin up some more or maintain his current parameters.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
RevUp
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 180
Loc:
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: tenavilla]
      #25569 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:49 PM

Yes, it has to get to the GOM first.

--------------------
"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25570 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:50 PM

This thing is wobbling like it's got 3 bad legs...I think overall trend is still WNW. After west movement, a couple of frames almost NW, then W, hence the average.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: rule]
      #25571 - Sat Sep 11 2004 09:53 PM

Quote:

Meanwhile, is Ivan going West again!?




Sure looks like it's barely north of west.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25572 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:09 PM

Man... I'm about to deal Cuba out of the picture entirely. This thing may Thud into Mexico.

Crazy, I know... Just a thought. WV shows nothing but clear sailing W.

The 5am from NHC should be interesting.

The Eye is really getting stong, I see. 800's here we come!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: MrSpock]
      #25573 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:10 PM

Mr Spock, I agree, looks overall wnw on average, not 292.5 true wnw, more like 285 degrees heading... I also voted no to below 900, but if it happens I think it will happen before Coou ba..... such a rare event that doesn't happen to often.... saying that, nothing would surprise me with this bad boy

Geesh, can you imagine the panic along the GOM if this were to get below 900 in the GOM... I don't even want to think about it.... I just don't see that as a real possible scenario as shear is expected in the GOM and it won't have the great environmental conditions it has at the moment... everything has to be perfect for a Cat 5.... right now its perfect..


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: warm water, landfall [Re: Frank P]
      #25574 - Sat Sep 11 2004 10:14 PM

Can you guys get me thru to 12?

Local news here has 2 top stories. One is Ivan, can you guess the other.

I've got tears upwelling right now...this is very difficult..need something to take my mind off the damn date!

I remember being on this site on 9/11 when the planes hit...we had about one hour before all of our t-1 lines went down for a week...and the sympathy expressed here was incredible...

sorry...I said I wasn't going to bring it up but now it's real and it's killing me.

God bless the Caymans

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 52 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 30103

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center