WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
Hi Breeezy
My reasoning is that once the trough starts turning the storm that it will keep turning the storm, hence NW, N, NE. I think the trough is being underplayed. Also, I have felt that this was a Florida peninsula storm from day 1. So, I am going with between the big bend and tampa. I also think the accuracy rate needs a big miss.
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Hey Richie,
It's probably not a peninsula storm. Remember that the Big Bend hasn't seen > 85mph at least in 80 years. That's not an area conducive to strong landfalling storms. You've got to get farther west. My hunch is that it's a FL system, but it's gonna be a WFL system, and that's Western Panhandle if it is. I'll be outside of the sphere of influence where I'm at so this (unlike millions of other people around the web - and I certainly don't mean you as you well know) is definitely NOT a wishcast.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
|
|
Thank you, Mr. Spock.
Just for fun, I throw out my take on this: I see the dry air created from itself. It's thrown out and Cuba sort of pushes it back into the intake cycle of , instead of being thrown clear.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.html
This is causing or at least interacting with the "flat spot".
Here I am trying to predict zillions of air molecules.. What a joke!
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Evening all,
just took a two-hour break and had dinner with my folks. I forbade them from putting on (think that's where I get it from), and also from sneaking away to log on their computer...feeble 56k that it is.
Was going to pack it in early tonight, and still may...got a football game on one channel, Perh-fecht stahm on NBC and , but I still had to check back in.
Great dialog...chief officer spock seems to have taken the role of clark, and rather well I might add...thanks.
Don't be surprised to wake up to a CAT V tomorrow. The is taking longer than anticipated (remember they can take up to 24 hours, though that is unusual). Once he completes that and winds up (down), look out.
I hope and pray the opposite...also...for the past three days he hasn't been playing by any established rules...lending more creedence to the theory, based in part on fact, that these monstah's create their own weather. I would think a US landfall of at least a III is likely, though, again, I hope the opposite.
I also am finally giving in to my own preconceived notions that he will do the expected and will call for NO CUBAN LANDFALL. He's danced around every piece of real estate in his way, why stop now. Only problem is once he dances around Coobah, the only other solution is south of the keys...that ain't happenin'.
Will stay on as long as the eyelids remain barely open.
Yous guys are da best!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
|
|
frank,
it did look to be going farther north, but i still don't think this is gonna turn like they predict..it may hit the big bend/tampa but it ain't gonna be like what was on the drawing board
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
Very interesting going theory - pushing it's own dry air back into itself. Hmmm - think about that.
Also, thanks Phil, I didn't know eyewall cycles could take that long; I thought was about to explode any second now.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Edited by ShaggyDude (Sun Sep 12 2004 09:36 PM)
|
SoonerShawn
Unregistered
|
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Looks like he is already starting to wrap up again. It also does look like is still on the WNW path.
SoonerShawn
|
sullynole
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 21
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
|
|
this season certainly doesn't lend itself to climatology... especially this particular storm. Climatology is usually not the best bet when forecasting hurricanes in the GOM, at least in my opinion. I did find an interesting storm track for those who like climatology though... http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1896/4/track.gif
cat3, and remember, this is long ago when there was not much to help in tracking these storms.
--------------------
John
Edited by sullynole (Sun Sep 12 2004 09:54 PM)
|
clueless
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Quote:
Only problem is once he dances around Coobah, the only other solution is south of the keys...that ain't happenin'.
Can you explain what you mean. I think you are saying that if it dances around Cuba the Keys are in for it, but I don't understand why?
|
Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
|
|
Just wondering if anyone saw ( hero to some here) Joe B. on Fox news a few minutes ago.
--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
|
rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
|
|
This is probably Hurricane 101 stuff, but I find it neat how at a point NW from notice how the outer rim clouds either part to the SW (or rotation side) or to the East (outflow side)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
I don't expect you can draw a line from EW to that "part" to get direction, but it's still an "edge" weather condition. Things are always interesting at the edge...
|
Breeezy
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Loc: Crystal River, FL
|
|
I sure hope you are wrong WXMAN as I am about 70 miles to the north of Tampa along the west coast. I was without power for four days after came thru , with some still waiting for the power to return
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
I think he means that to keep up his land skirting, would have to go between the keys and cuba, and that's not happening... until proves me wrong.
|
clueless
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 23
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
Oh okay - now I get it - The name fits tonite
|
LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
|
|
Shaggy, scoobie here...
Yep...the comment was tongue in cheek. There's no way this storm is going around Coobah and then east to the atlantic. It's just that that's the only way he could keep avoiding land. Shaggy nailed it!
Ruh-Roh!
--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
|
SirCane1
Unregistered
|
|
People are getting ready here in Pensacola. Already a log jam at gas stations down town. the Terrible is a pain in the neck!
I do see a WNW and NW motion. Maybe the start of the NW turn?
|
Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
|
|
Last I heard is that it has shifted west, but not out of Florida west (re: Superensemble).
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
Well, so far, tracking has been painful for all, and I wouldn't be one bit surprized to see that still has a few tricks up his sleeve. By the way Coop, I did see JB on FoxNews - is he going to be a regular guest there, or something - I've seen him multiple times now. Also, although it's just one frame, I believe is making a comeback.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
In fact, JB's back right now.
Zoinks!!!
Edited by ShaggyDude (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:03 PM)
|
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
|
|
Shaggy what did Joe B (the great one) say about .... anything new?
thanks Clark for the update on the SE
I'm listening to him right now....
Edited by Frank P (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:05 PM)
|
ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
|
|
Well, he made the analogy that the gulf is bait for 's shark...
He also said Biloxi, Mobile, Pensicola likely candidates with landfall thursday at 12:00 Am to 6:00 Am
Cameille, George, etc.. mentioned
Edited by ShaggyDude (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:06 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
[Re: 
Edit
Reply
Quote
