KJJBCr
Unregistered
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I posted this right before the site went down for a bit. In case anyw=one missed it I am reposting. This is the 8pm BAM. Does it mean anything?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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yes, the last shot does show a signifcant burst with colder cloud tops in the . Maybe the is close to being finished. I noticed my sat pic looks "worse" presentation-wise than the Weather Channel. This could be the usual night time flare up.
And I think the latest BAM had an unrealistic turn, some sort of error.
Edited by MrSpock (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:07 PM)
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I'm seeing a BIG chunk of dry air about to wrap the NW and in-cycle into . I doubt it will reach the eye, or maybe not even get placed into the core.
Still, is anyone else seeing this?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Apparently our eyes and the sat pics aren't matching the recon findings. The latest report has a 28nm closed eye, with 917mb pressure.
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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I don't see any dry air making it's way in - there's a big shield of cold cloud tops blocking anything all the way around. As for the BAM, I think it's exaggerating an important point - If continues slowly, it could make these N, NE turns at a lower latitude and have an impact Panhandle, Big Bend, or even Peninsula area.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yep...on its way down to ~900mb.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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ShaggyDude
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Cocoa Beach, Florida
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Keep on it Phil, don't flip-flop - it just might happen. Although I don't want it to, I too believe it to happen eventually.
Good night and happy tracking. We shall always see more tomorrow. It's always 'tomorrow.'
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dani
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
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Did I misread the latest recon information or is the estimated winds at 160 mph and again a cat 5? That surpries me, if it's the case since the pressure increased by 2 mb.
Thanks,
dani
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dani
Go Green Bay!
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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I'm seeing a big healthy burst on IR loops. may be waking up from his nap.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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No, you are right. The 155kts at 2339Z equals 178.5mph at flt level, or 160.6mph at the surface.
I also saw the large buildup on the NW quadrant. It's like he put up a shield to the NW.
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GainesvilleGuest
Unregistered
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I finally got my power (the whole street) back on today, after being off for a full week. Gainesville really could use a break, after all the downed/uprooted trees and loss of power. According to the local forecasters, we received strong tropical force winds here - not even hurricane force - although some gusts were over 80 mph. Because of our proximity to as she went across the state, we received nasty weather for almost two whole days. I wanted to see a hurricane, since we saw nothing of , but living without power for a week is no fun. I'd still honestly like to see some bands from , but nothing over 50 mph gusts this time. With all the recent rain we've had, I'm sure many trees would uproot even more easily the second time around (and Gainesville has a LOT of trees, for anyone who doesn't know that.) A battery powered tv is a handy thing to have, as long as you can receive local stations. If I didn't have that, I'm sure the whole experience would have been a lot more unnerving. My neighborhood has a lot of very tall trees, and it was fascinating watching the 'waves' of wind travelling through the trees. It also makes an eerie sound, sort of like a few jet engines off in the distance. We lost about 6 or 8 large trees on my street of about 30 or 40 houses. I believe 90 homes in the county were 'total losses.' There is still a lot of electrical work to be done here (and removal of an obscene amount of fallen tree material.) I realize the chance of hitting Gainesville with 100+ mph winds is probably about 1% or less, but that would be a real disaster, all things considered.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Lightning and hail in the eyewall. This is VERY unusual, and I believe it is due to some drier air influencing the system. The has definitely improved.
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Unregistered
Unregistered
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What is the chance will hit Navarre, FL?
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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what was your guess on landfall again steve? Also back couple days ago, i said and always said I didnt have a landfall forcast yet till earlier today. I could be wrong still also but I gave reasons why. Everyone is doing a great job in the message boards on what they see.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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They are doing a very nice job with .
Geraldo just talked to the hunter plane, they found 180 - 200 mph winds near the surface with 916mb pressure
WOW
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rule
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
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http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/gulf_wv_loop.gif
It seems the total cloud area of is stationary while the eye continues to the NW, hence the sudden flare up. The eye is compressing the core and wringing the energy out of it and causing the flare up.
Is this totally stupid and should I just hush and go to bed?
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spook
Unregistered
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goodnite lol
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Terra
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
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Quote:
They are doing a very nice job with .
Geraldo just talked to the hunter plane, they found 180 - 200 mph winds near the surface with 916mb pressure
WOW
I just saw local Fox news and they commented the track was too east, since it favored the easterly models. I agree with that statement. But, then they commented that they thought would pass much more south of Cuba and even insinuated it may continue its current motion and clip the Yucitan. I'm not sure about that one...
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Terra Dassau Cahill
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I don't even think he's close to completing that ...this could be VERY BAD.
CROWBUSTINGFORECAST: When this is complete, assuming recon can get in there, sub 900mb! Since I'm almost always wrong, this should work out just fine and he'll have weakened. For once, I REALLY hope I'm wrong.
Filet migcrow...ummm
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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well, I'm going to bed. I am tired, and my wife didn't recognize me, so I guess I've been on the computer too long!
Live Long and Prosper
..the needs of the many out weigh the needs of the few.. Just had to do that!
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Sep 12 2004 10:48 PM)
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