Elaine H
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 21
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Right you are Guppie...we are all very edgy in central FL...hence the run on plywood and fuel...then there is the thought that none of us wants it to land anywhere, but there is the inevitable....
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TampaDon
Unregistered
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"Once again...the official forecast track has been shifted a
little to the west...and is in best agreement with the latest
and solutions. The latest superensemble run is only
slightly to the west of the track."
How can they shift it to the west even more when everytjhing I see points to a more eastward track?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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The consensus of the dynamical track prediction models shows a northwestward to north-northwestward motion followed by a turn to the north as the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico.
Ivan will continue to go somewhat to the west heading around 325 degrees... and the NE turn will NOT occur until close to landfall.... WOW
88.5 is south of Pascagoula I think.....
Edited by Frank P (Tue Sep 14 2004 02:46 AM)
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unknown
Unregistered
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I agree with you scottsvb I just think I have been reading this stuff too much today, seems that there are few who want this thing in Tampa and hope they are right. I don't want it to come here at alll. Hurricanes are NOT FUN
Where are you? We know you don't want it "there" but where is that? Thanks!
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Sep 14 2004 02:45 AM)
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unknown
Unregistered
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Is Tampa near Missippi?
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dani
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
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Okay, so I'm a tad confused. What is causing the sudden change for landfall farther west towards New Orleans? Is the trough farther west than expected or what could be a better reason for the ms/la expected landfall.
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dani
Go Green Bay!
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Unknown
Unregistered
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Gulf Breeze, Panhandle Florida south of Pensacola
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Mike just put up a new thread...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Yes, but far away from Mississippi <joking>
Actually, looking at the strike probabilities, Texas, Port Arthur, is at 10% now
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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I would have never expected to get past 88 degrees period... 120K too geesh.... boy, what changes will we see at the 5 am advisory... posted earlier most of the models were left of the forecast... gee they actually went with them this time
FSU SE is also slightly west of forecast track, wonder what's its targeting...
the GOM, continuing its tradition as being the grave yard of busted forecasts... the saga continues tomorrow....
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rd522525
Unregistered
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funny you say that on another board derek ortt writes:we have shifted back to the right as we may have had some bad 12Z upper air obs that went into the 12Z forecast
http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html
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peggyone
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: St. Pete Beach
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okay I know I am new but please sombody tell me where you can possibly see it threatining the TB area. I live on a tiny island off the southern most part of Pass- A -Grill. We are talking major coastal damage as well as maybe a new inlet with any surge. I thought we were in the clear?
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"There are lies and then there are statistics where are you ?"
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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I think we are seeing the results of the change in track being reflected in the ETA, anyway. 18Z took right over New Orleans, now it looks to have shifted at least 50 miles east.
That trof looks like it is still strong, and is still digging. NNW may continue longer than expected, just like wnw did.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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As i posted many times the runs of the 18Z,,which are 2pm are used for the 11pm update here. The dont have the oz run which is 8pm to give out and when they do it will be at the 5am update. Also the Bamn models that you will see at 6z and 2am eastern will be run offs of the run tonight at 0Z. So movement tonight into tomorrow and 0z runs will be key.
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mbfly
Weather Guru
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Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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I really didn't want to echo Rick, but the news tonight has been my thought all week.(I won't go into the thing with my mother's headstone again !) Yeah LI Phil, I read it the same way you did. Cat 4/5 Mobile Bay. 
I put an attachment that I got this morning, I deleted the source cuz I'm not sure I was supposed to share it. Even though it came out at 9 am today, it appears to be right on the money ! 
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New thread up at 10 pm
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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Best Wishes, hugs and prayers comin y'all's way from Texas
'shana
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chuck325
Unregistered
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Well you said if it hit Mobile us in Pensacola would get the crap knocked out of us..Does this seem to be happening or is there a chance it can still make landfall east of us.
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willy
Unregistered
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Live in Lapalce,La. Taking off work today to board up my house and my daughters. I have been keeping an eye on and I don't like the looks of things.Still to early to tell but as I posted about 4 days ago I have a bad feeling about .I think everyone here in the New Orleans area is taking this thing serious as we all should..The weather here is overcast and spotty showers.If you look at the clouds they are moving to the NW. Some voluntary evacuations,and mandatory evacuations are taking place in different parishes around the area.So we are taking things seriously.Will probablly leave this afternoon and go towards Houston if it is still coming this way. I have heard that all motels are reserved as far north as Jackson Miss. Everone take this Storm "serious" because this is nothing to mess with.Best of luck to anyone in it's path.
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