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Archives 2000s >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida
      #26852 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:46 PM

9AM Update
Recon reports have the pressure up to 930mb this morning, meaning the storm has weakened a bit. Probably to low cat 4 / high 3 levels (Shear seems to be gaining). It's hard to say if this is a trend or not or a eyewall cycle that it will recover from. Monitoring the recon repors and satellite images will help there. The 11AM NHC advisory should be interesting. The pressure rise indicates it probably won't recover to Category 5 levels, at least not soon.

Also TD#11 is very likely to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Jeanne at 11.

Original Update

Still a category 5, Hurricane Ivan is now in the Gulf of Mexico. Watches are up from Morgan City, Louisiana to St. Marks in Florida, including New Orleans. The forecast track shifted a little west as well.


Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.



Image thanks to Skeetobite

The entire Watch area needs to prepare for a major hurricane.



More to come later.

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orelans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West, FL - Long Range Radar Loop



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Event RelatedLinks
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Police , fire and rescue scanner audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
TD#11 Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures


General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info

Disaster Relief Information

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26855 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:48 PM

Thanks for the new forum, Mike. Keep up the great work!

Everyone in the watch area better have all your preps done and your kits ready. At least you should all have gas or access to it...fill up the car tonight...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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rule
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 132
Loc: Ocala, Florida
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: LI Phil]
      #26861 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:52 PM

Thank you MikeC and LI Phil for all your strong work!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: LI Phil]
      #26864 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM

BTW,

Kent put up a really funny post in the Comedy Forum...all y'all should check it out if you get a sec...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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dani
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 25
Loc: Pensacola/Indianapolis
Repost [Re: rule]
      #26866 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:53 PM

Okay, so I'm a tad confused. What is causing the sudden change for landfall farther west towards New Orleans? Is the trough farther west than expected or what could be a better reason for the ms/la expected landfall.

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: rule]
      #26867 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM

a repost with one addition... Scott, this keeps up and your BIloxi target just might come to fruition... then I'll have to get some of my cousins (DIxie Mafia) to perhaps to make you an offer you can't refuse... hehe

I would have never expected Ivan to get past 88 degrees period... 120K too geesh.... boy, what changes will we see at the 5 am advisory... posted earlier most of the models were left of the forecast... gee they actually went with them this time

FSU SE is also slightly west of forecast track, wonder what's its targeting...

the GOM, continuing its tradition as being the grave yard of busted forecasts... the saga continues tomorrow....


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MrSpock
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Repost on new ETA [Re: dani]
      #26868 - Mon Sep 13 2004 10:55 PM

I think we are seeing the results of the change in track being reflected in the ETA, anyway. 18Z took Ivan right over New Orleans, now it looks to have shifted at least 50 miles east.
That trof looks like it is still strong, and is still digging. NNW may continue longer than expected, just like wnw did.


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Colleen A.
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26869 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:05 PM

Scott, here's the score for us so far:

Scott - 1
Colleen - 0

Good job on the track prediction. I am preparing crow wings ala Creme as I type.

At this point, at the rate I'm going, my prediction of landfall in Mexico may be correct.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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BillD
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Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26870 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM Attachment (489 downloads)

I have been trying to grab this image for hours and the site is just so overloaded I couldn't get a full image. I finally grabbed one from about an hour ago. Anyway, this is a good radar shot of Ivan as it just passes by the Western tip of Cuba.

Bill


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Colleen A.]
      #26871 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:08 PM

I've got a new "Atkin's Friendly" set of crow recipes...they're GRRREEEAAAT!

Seriously, though, if this track holds up...110kt winds THAT FAR INLAND?

Anyone near this track better get FAR FAR AWAY, and soon...this gets scarier by the second...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: BillD]
      #26872 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM

Nice shot

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Steveunplugged
Unregistered




Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26873 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:11 PM

Still laughing all over the web about people steering the storm "their way". What a bunch of nuts. For those who can't separate themselves from a forecast track, they really don't need to be posting. I know it's human nature, but it's about the most annoying thing on the net. It's not as bad on CFHC as it is in other places, but it still shows up from time to time.

I broke rank and disagreed with Mike, Ed and Jason last night. I disagree with Ortt's updated forecast. I think the Hurricane Center's 11pm track is the closest to what's to come so far. Bob Breck of WVUE Fox-8 New Orleans is disputing about everything that the amateurs are posting out there. He says that anticipated wind sheer is shaping up to be far less than anticipated. He noted a ridge building in from FL and how the timing of it and the Pacific trof are key. And his associate met plotted a bunch of Gulf water temps. Fox 8 does not agree with the weakening trend for the reasons given by the NHC but do agree with a slight weakening, though that trend hasn't yet begun.

As for New Orleans, Ace was out of flashlights so I had to go to K-Mart. Cigs are stocked as is the beer. The wife and kids are blowing town to Memphis, TN tomorrow along with both of my sisters, their kids and my dad. It's going to be me and my 5 month old boxer, Chelsea, babysitting two rabbits for a neighbor and checking on my little brother's cats. Who nominated me?

Steve


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kirdona
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 4
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: LI Phil]
      #26874 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:12 PM

K.......What exactly would that mean for me? I am in Columbus and will be by myself with a 14 month old and a 3 year old. I've been thinking about driving up to see my folks in WI. Should I or would we be ok staying here? I totally do not know what to expect........

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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26875 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:14 PM

>>> It's going to be me and my 5 month old boxer, Chelsea, babysitting two rabbits for a neighbor and checking on my little brother's cats. Who nominated me?


Steve, LOL... YOU nominated you. You have, how to put this diplomatically, a tad more...um...well...guts...than many.

Be safe Big Guy! Hopefully you're on the west side of the landfall...

God help us if NO takes a direct or east of direct hit...

Peace

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: Frank P]
      #26877 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM

The probabilities from 8am to 8pm Wednesday
New Orleans and Gulfport with a 12% probability
Buras,LA with 11%.
Mobile,AL and New Iberia,LA with 10%.
Pensacola with 9%, and Panama City with a 6%


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26878 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:16 PM

contribute, my friend, contribute...

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26879 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM

Thought that was a large stretch of coastline under a Hurricane Watch. It's clear that the NHC forecast continues to be a below average confidence one--as they are allowing for a more western route while warning the folks all the way to the Panhandle.

What is of more concern is the intensity--if I'm reading the forecast correctly, NHC is now calling for a Cat IV at landfall. I can't imagine what that would do slamming into Mobile Bay.

Night folks...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26880 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:17 PM

Steve, I will guarantee one thing... this is not set in stone and we will see more changes during the next 24 to 36 hours.... But I think now the area of most concert is from Bay St. Louis MS to PC.... somebody or perhaps everybody in this area is going to get creamed.. I can only pray that this forecast to Mobile holds up and I'm on the west side of the storm... we have the real possibility of a Cat 4 land falling on the gulf coast... for Mobile this will be perhaps worse than Fredrick, and that was bad.... my pucker pressure is way up.... anybody have a generator they want to sell???

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steveunplugged]
      #26881 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:18 PM

One thing I should have mentioned is that the ETA has been a western outlier, which is a bias it has with nor'easters also. The 6z run from this morning had the center much closer to the Yucatan Pen., and it ended up on the tip of Cuba. At some point, it won't be far west like it has been, but I would hesitate using this model (or any model in isolation) for the landfall. I can't wait to see what the GFS did with this, and I agree with you re: the NHC. I would also note that except for a warm eddy over the N. Cent. Gulf, the warmer waters are more shallow than in the Carib., and depth does matter. The question is, will it be significant here. I don't have that answer.

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: clyde w.]
      #26883 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:22 PM

I think too the water that this this storm is carrying. I believe the surge is over 20ft.
that could really wallop the coast.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1153
Loc: fl
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26884 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM

Hey phil,,,,how do you quote something on 1 thread to another? I explained the models into the NHC forcasting.

Scott, block & copy...I'll do it for you before I crash...

Edited by LI Phil (Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM)


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LI Phil
User


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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26885 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:23 PM

OK,

Gotta hit the rack...can't miss anymore work...everyone BEHAVE!

As I go to sleep tonight, NHC has it progged as a CAT IV in Mobile bay...where will they have it by the morning light?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SoonerShawn
Unregistered




I'm Confused! [Re: MrSpock]
      #26886 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM

I can't see this doing anything but moving due north or even NE. At this time, I see it as a Florida landfall. What am I missing?

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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
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Loc:
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: LI Phil]
      #26887 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:24 PM

Being in central Fla, I'm gonna clear out of here and let you Gulf coasters make your plans.
Stay above the water line if you're in New Orleans !!
Phil, I think of course a western edge hit in New Orleans would be worse but I believe that if the storm is East of them, the North to South Winds would move the water from the Lake down toward New Orleans. I think it's bad in either case.
I'll be listening to WWL 870 on the am dial to see what the locals are saying tonight and tomorrow.

Stay safe everyone.....


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Scotts Post... [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26888 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:28 PM

As i posted many times the runs of the 18Z,,which are 2pm are used for the 11pm update here. The dont have the oz run which is 8pm to give out and when they do it will be at the 5am update. Also the Bamn models that you will see at 6z and 2am eastern will be run offs of the GFS run tonight at 0Z. So movement tonight into tomorrow and 0z runs will be key.

This was from Scottsvb...I'm outta here!

Everyone be safe!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: BillD]
      #26889 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM

A somewhat unusual comment in a recon "RECCO" obs, I guess they were asked to get a good fix on the center?

URNT11 KNHC 140225
97779 02254 30221 8560/ 30700 05104 1212/ /3814
RMK AF963 3209A Ivan OB 05
RADAR CENTER FIX 21.9N 85.1W, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURAC
Y 0.1NM.

Bill


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: MrSpock]
      #26890 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:29 PM

Good post Spock. Bastardi, not usually a follower of the ETA, has had more confidence in the simplistic models than the GFS suite (AVN, GFDL, etc.). He believes their right-bias is directly related to their inability to handoff heat from the tropics to the temperates. He mentioned the other day that the Accuweather international guy said the GFS was the KING of South America because they don't have as many temperature variables there. Lemme go make a run and see if he's got a nightly update (he had previously called for a mouth of the river hit and a Camille track, but that was prior to the NNW jog). - No update from Joe. The mid atlantic model maps have been updated at 11:00. Models are really beginning to cluster on the MS coast. Be ready out there!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26891 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:34 PM

Hey guys, havent been able to post all day, I've been very busy. Tomorrow evacuations start around here, me and my bro are gonna help my boss board up his buisness in the morning. Were going to evacuate from Gulf Breeze and head to Pensacola and ride it out with my dads bosses family at his print-shop. We'll be way above see level so Im not worried bout surge, but winds are a different matter. I have had the weirdest feeling lately, Im excited, but also scared by all this. This will be a first for me for sure. My whole neighborhood is boarded up except us because were only renting right now and we arent responsible for the house but Im praying it holds up ok. Well Im off to get some sleep, tomorrows gonna be busy. Wishing everyone around the coast luck with this one. Cheers GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: BabyCat]
      #26892 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:35 PM

The east Gulf buoy, 242nm North of Ivan, reported 11.2ft waves, wind 25kts gusting to 29kts at 0250Z.
This is only the wave height. The storm surge will be in addition to this. I would say 10-20 feet surge on top of 11ft waves. That's 3 stories of a building!!
BTW-the wave ht was 9.8 ft an hour earlier. That's an increase of 1.4ft in an hour, at 200+ miles out!!

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 13 2004 11:39 PM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26893 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM

Thank you, and I must say, after dealing with the LFM for years, the ETA looks great comparitively-but, it still has its problems. I remember a forecast I had to make up in NJ where the LFM called for 18 inches of snow, and the NGM nothing. Nothing won. The rule of thumb was to halve the QPF. Now, the GFS is the one with the gridscale feedback problem.
Having said all of that, I actually like the GFS a lot, but I must acknowledge its recent difficulties, especially since its bias was usually the other way.
One last thing on the ETA-I think a couple of years ago, they made adjustments to the model to try to improve its forecasts. That may be so, but it still seems to have trouble with tropical systems.


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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: danielw]
      #26894 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:37 PM

HOLY CRAP! My inlaws have a place right on the gulf coast in PCB.

--------------------
Kelly


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Seele
Unregistered




Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: kelcot]
      #26895 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:40 PM

Anyone know why we haven't seen a vortex message in approaching 5 hours?

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: danielw]
      #26896 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:41 PM

Bad news..the more you learn.
Hope it falls apart at the coast like that one last year (or the year before) that hit La.
It's been a CatV a long time now and over 24hours with *lightening* in the eye wall. Can't stay that intense for much
longer, one can only hope...


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meto
Weather Guru


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Posts: 140
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: BillD]
      #26897 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM

that is east of 1100 position.

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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: Seele]
      #26898 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM

GREAT question!!!!

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jth off
Unregistered




Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26899 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:42 PM

Wow those models are starting to cluster. This looks like what happened for Frances when the models all of a sudden came together and were pretty accurate. Also, I do alot of investigative interviews and have developed an ability to read body movements and mannerisms. Looking at Dr. lyons, he shows much more confidence now in where Ivan is going. I think they have a pretty good handle on this now. The question now becomes intensity. He also says that it may speed up and lessen the time allowed to weaken.

If I lived in the Gulport to Pensacola area, I would get the heck out of town...NOW.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: kelcot]
      #26900 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:43 PM

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1020 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2004

...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERAL PARISHES IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAVE ISSUED VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION ORDERS INCLUDING ORLEANS AND JEFFERSON. ST BERNARD HAS
ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION ORDER FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE
FEDERAL HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
IVAN...TIDES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY.
EXTREME STORM SURGE VALUES OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE
POSSIBLE IF IvanS TRACK SHIFTS WEST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI COAST
OR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
...WIND IMPACTS....
EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WINDS...WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR HIGHER...WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREA MID DAY WEDNESDAY...
THEN SPREAD INLAND. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE
IVAN...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY NIGHT

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 13 2004 11:44 PM)


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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Keys are windy [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26901 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:44 PM

Being a native Floridian, I understand that storms, even severe weather is an everyday part of our locus here. I applaud the county for evacuating the Keys, but I am still uncertain whether lifting the evacuation notice was such a good idea yet. They have had torrential rain today and I've heard the traffic heading towards the islands is a nightmare. Also, according to the Sand Key data buoy, they are receiving sustained winds of 26kts (30mph) and gusts up to 31kts (35.6mph). Those are pretty strong winds to have multitudes commuting over wet bridges.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the path. Please take all precautions necessary to preserve property and life.

Kyle

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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KornR
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26902 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM

Wow.... this site is incredible!

I am just amazed at how much detail you ppl are into... I am learning so much. Please keep up the great discussions and I will sit quitely over here in the corner and try to learn something.

Thanks everyone.

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"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"


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USFTampa
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: k___g]
      #26903 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:45 PM

I must be missing something here- I just can't seem to understand why the forecasts are all west oriented right now. Perhaps I am mistaken, but from everything I have seen and heard, it just seems as though the storm could hit any little bump in the road and everything could change in an instant- much like the shift from Central Florida to the Panhandle. I just see a more easterly route before it is over with. Again, am I missing something from the satellite images or the current flows? Until Ivan is gone, my plywood stays up (I stayed at the Home Depot ALL night to get it, so I at least have to admire it for awhile).

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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BeachBum
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Watch/warning width [Re: clyde w.]
      #26904 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM

Quote:

Thought that was a large stretch of coastline under a Hurricane Watch. It's clear that the NHC forecast continues to be a below average confidence one--as they are allowing for a more western route while warning the folks all the way to the Panhandle.




Even if this latest track is dead on, the area for a hurricane watch should be quite large. See the winds at:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_bands2.asp

--------------------
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BillD
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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: Seele]
      #26905 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:47 PM

Nope, recon has been out there for the last couple of hours, that is where those center fixes came from (another one came in just a little while ago). Not sure why no vortex message yet, but they might not have been out there long enough.

Bill


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jth off
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: USFTampa]
      #26906 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:50 PM

No..What you see out there now is deceiving though. The trough that was pulling Ivan a little more north earlier has weakened and started to pull out. That is allowing the NW motion to resume. That should continue until Ivan gets fairly close to the coast with a turn N then maybne NNE at the very end. The models are really starting to come to an agreement.

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
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Updated maps - NHC Advisory 47 [Re: MikeC]
      #26908 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:51 PM

Do not focus on the point of landfall, errors on the future track may be large. All areas in the Hurricane Watch need to prepare.

Latest landfall forecast map:


Full size image at www.skeetobite.com/weather


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meto
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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: BillD]
      #26909 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:52 PM

85.1 is east of the 11:00 85.4

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meto
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth off]
      #26910 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:54 PM

it is not moving nw its going mainly north.

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Steve
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: meto]
      #26911 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM

Not going northwest? East of last fix? Look at the vis-ir loop and explain the movements. Seriously, don't watch a color-enhanced IR that spins cloudtops. Look at the real deal

The Real Deal [tm]

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Steve (Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM)


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wxman007
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OOZ GFS... [Re: meto]
      #26912 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:56 PM

Landfall in less than 60 hrs (???) over Pensacola....

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Jason Kelley


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon [Re: meto]
      #26913 - Mon Sep 13 2004 11:58 PM

Recon is at the storm. For some strange reason they flew down the west side and back north.
URNT11 KNHC 140324 ( 11:24pm edt)
97779 03244 30219 8560/ 30600 36097 1515/ /3619
RMK AF963 3209A Ivan OB 07
RADAR EYE FIX 21.9N 85.2W, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION, NAV ACCURACY
0.1NM.


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jth off
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: meto]
      #26914 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 AM

Check out this link and then tell me its not moving NW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: wxman007]
      #26915 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:02 AM

JK you have a very good point. Folks, if you live near the beach, bays or water, in the Hurricane Watch area, check your evacuation level.
Bay County FL, has been mentioned on TWC. 11ft waves an hour ago at the East Gulf buoy. Could be some real high waves way before Ivan gets near.


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jth off
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Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: wxman007]
      #26916 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:03 AM

JK where did the GFS have the track???

That seems fairly reasonable to me. I don't think the track is going to change much anymore.


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meto
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth off]
      #26917 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:04 AM

then why is recon saying 85.2

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SoonerShawn
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Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: danielw]
      #26918 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:05 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

From when this starts to when it stops it looks like a more westerly component has been added. Maybe it just looks that way because it's a WV.


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Kent
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Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: danielw]
      #26919 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:06 AM

Thats true. Our local guy just showed a graphic of the ocean waves coming from Ivan. The outer bands alone are causing 15 foot waves. Kinda disconcerting because the bands look awfully close to the Keys now.

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MrSpock
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Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: jth off]
      #26920 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

models on here seem to update as fast as any site.


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scottsvb
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth off]
      #26921 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:07 AM

Correct Jason,,looks like most of the models have gone alittle to the east by 40-80 miles ( matters what models we look at). I would think that position for the NHC might shift alittle east at the 5am adv. Also a side note.....interesting GFS thru 84 hours on Jeanne.

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wxman007
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Re: OOZ GFS...Upon Further Inspection... [Re: jth off]
      #26922 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:08 AM

Landfall at 54 hrs over Pensacola....seems a bit fast to me...so I am not sold that the GFS is a good run....gonna have to inspect it further....

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Recon Eye Fix [Re: meto]
      #26923 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM

Recon is at the storm. The radar eye fix is the Present center of the storm at the time of their observation. The storm is moving slowly so the numbers change every few minutes.
The Recon Eye Fix is accurate to 0.1nm, per the observation, which is as close as you can get.


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jth off
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: scottsvb]
      #26924 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:12 AM

Seems like the shift east would put them more in line with the current NHC forecast since it was east of the model consensus. Is my logic correct?

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wxman007
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00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26925 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:14 AM

Geeze...all the globals look just too fast tonight...00z NOGAPS has Ivan just offshore south of Morgan City, LA at 48 hrs!!! (?????) ...then NORTH of NOLA at 60 hrs...

I see the eventual solution as slower...interesting...

Doesn't make sense to me what is triggering the acceleration.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


Edited by wxman007 (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM)


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BabyCat
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storm surge [Re: jth off]
      #26926 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:15 AM

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

just in case someone doesn't have this...was looking for the surge model.


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kelcot
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26927 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:16 AM

I hope that when Ivan is done, we still have a beach house to go to.....

--------------------
Kelly


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Frank P
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Miss Sound waves [Re: danielw]
      #26928 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM

I've seen first hand the waves generated from Elena back in 1985 with her 100 mph plus wind.... the sound is relatively shallow, the waves at best as they crashed on the sea wall were maybe 5 feet tops... the wind blows so hard it just churns the sound into a froth of foam and chaos and pulverizes them.... now you will definitely see somewhat bigger waves with a Cat 4, but the largest waves will be in areas not protected by the barrier islands.... Georges had maybe 4 foot waves max in front of my house.... Ship Island, Dauphin Island, Pensacola, PC will all have those massive waves Daniel was referring to but you will not see that size wave in the MS Sound off the coast of Biloxi, at I have never see waves that big in my experience.... water is just to shallow to support them... hope I' right on this one....

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Colleen A.
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: meto]
      #26929 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:17 AM

I'm not seeing a due north movement, but I'm not seeing a NW movement either. I think its more like NNW. Especially the last loop.

I noticed tonight at football practice that you could see the higher cirrus clouds from Ivan. A little eerie considering how far away he is.

Here's my hope: I hope that wherever this monster goes, that by the time it gets there, shear has increased and the intensity has gone down. Having gone through two of these storms already...which are in no way comparative to Ivan...a Cat 1 passing through you're area is no picnic. They may be closing the window on landfall which is good for those in the direct path of this monster, since they will be able to prepare and get out. Having seen the devastation that Charley and Frances caused, I wish I could wishcast this thing into Mexico so no one I know here or their families would be in danger. Once you've been through a couple, you realize it is no game anymore. My heartfelt prayers and thoughts go out to those who are in the path.

I'm going to bed now...for the last two nights, I've dreamt that I heard the track had shifted to the right, only to find out it was a dream. If I dream this one more time, I'm going to start taking horse tranquilizers until Christmas. If I dream tonight that the track shifted more to the left, well.............

Nite all....

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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jth off
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26930 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:18 AM

That accellerations scares me a bit. it wouldn't have mch time to weaken before landfall, and would go far inland as a very strong hurricane. That could cause massive devastation.

Something no one is mentioning is the fact that the north central gulf states have tons of trees. the power outages could be unimaginable. If I remeber correctly, it wasn't weeks without power for Frederick, it was well over a month for some.


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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26931 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 AM

Jason I dont think the NOGAPS is responding well to the ridge over Texas and the western gulf.....I mean if it is that far west the ridge might have more of a influence on Ivan and slow him some. I think the NOGAPS will be OOS with this run, but plauseable. Only thing I can think of is the trough hanging back awhile longer over the northern gulf steering the system up faster. I think the models will slowly adjust east but not much unless something odd happens.

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USFTampa
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26932 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:21 AM

I am confused as well. I don't understand the projected path. Correct me if I am wrong, but if Ivan doesn't move through the gulf as fast as they saw it will, won't it make landfall at a more southeastly location? Furthermore, why does it appear as though nothing is going to affect Ivan as he moves through the gulf?

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J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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jth off
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26933 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:27 AM

ScottsVb,

How far east would you project the landfall. I am having my doubts about anything east of Ft Walton abd anything west of NO. What is you best estimate as of now.

If the models do shift east a little, would the NHC shift east, or would that just bring the models into agreement with the current forecast.


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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: jth off]
      #26934 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM

My landfall forcast is still the same. Biloxi-Mobile. I wouldnt be surprised if anything happens from a hard right turn to St Marks.

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mud1967
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: wxman007]
      #26935 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM

Jason,

My parents want me to leave Tallahassee tomorrow. But if it does go as west as they are saying right now won't I be fine with just TS winds?


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tenavilla
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26936 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:29 AM

The met on the ABC affiliate here (can't remember his name, wears suspenders) just said that because the NHC shifted the 11pm west, this means they are "very confident with the forecast track" and basically told us we were completely out of the woods. He said all we have to worry about this week is normal afternoon thunderstorms. He went on to say Ivan was pretty much out of time to make the northeast turn to affect us. Seems a tad premature to me. Definitely don't want it here, but I don't see how a met can say it definitely won't affect us either.

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Clark
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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26938 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:33 AM

I really, really hate to go against a tight clustering of models by many miles, but I think I'm going to have to once again. I would like to note that the models, as a whole, have been performing poorly with Ivan. NHC forecast errors at 5 days are on the order of 335 miles; most models are even higher. Even the FSU Superensemble is at 250 miles. Three day errors are nothing to write home about either. But, all in all, that's not a justification for going against the models.

However, it does appear that Ivan has made the turn to the north-northwest...and I don't think there's any turning back now. Looking at water vapor imagery, that shortwave trough over the SE United States is only slowly progressing to the east. It's also not done digging, as evidenced by the surge of dry air into the northern Gulf south of New Orleans. Furthermore, back over Texas, the ridge continues to build...enhanced to a *small* degree by Hurricane Javier. The crest of the ridge extends into southern Oklahoma and continues to rise northward, partially in response to the Pacific NW trough moving eastward and pumping up the ridge. This, in turn, is impacting the shortwave over the SE US, causing it to slide further south than models or observations have predicted.

Enhancing this notion is the elongation N-S of the cloud pattern and moisture field associated with Ivan. Once storms start to elongate in this fashion, the turn is either imminent or taking place. The motion of Ivan recently, despite some wobbles, has been just slightly west of north-northwest. With the digging trough, I believe a large westward component of motion is over and the storm should gradually begin to turn to the NNE by landfall. If this storm gets west of 86-86.5W...well, I just can't see that happening right now, but am willing to be proven wrong. The eastern ridge is eroding and the storm is gradually turning. Also note that there is a weak shortwave rounding the west side of the trough in the SE US; as of 12a, it is located NW of Memphis, TN. If anything, this will both serve to slow the forward movement of the trough and cause it to dive just a bit further south.

Truthfully, I don't see any reason to significantly change my landfall forecast from yesterday. I will nudge it a tad westward to Panama City Beach -- sorry Jason -- but leave the window the same, if not narrow it to the AL/FL line to Apalachicola. This excludes the NHC track and while I am quite reluctant to do so, I'm just not buying in to what the models are selling.

Before even going into the intensity forecast then, I do want to reiterate that the NHC and its forecasters are the professionals. Always take their word in a time of extreme emergency, as this is shaping up to be. But, they issued hurricane watches for a large area tonight because they are not certain where this is going. Everyone from NO to St. Marks needs to watch this storm...any slight deviation will result in a significant change in landfall location.

Intensity -- well, despite less than stellar satellite appearances, Ivan's intensity has remained way up there. Pressure fell down to 910mb earlier in the day, while the height of the 700mb surface fellow below 2300m. That's low, folks. As the storm begins to move north, outflow on the NE side will become enhanced but the western side of the storm will begin to erode to a small degree. It won't be enough to spare the coastline a major hurricane, but it should knock the intensity down some. While surface waters are largely untouched and are very warm over the east central Gulf, the depth of the warm water is not particularly high except over parts of the north central Gulf, where there is a warm eddy. The storm should maintain its current intensity up to the next eyewall replacement cycle, followed by gradual weakening with a slight increase in relative shear and slightly less energy off of the Gulf waters. Near coast, the weakening trend may well subside due to the warm eddy. I think we are looking at a mid-cat 3 storm at landfall, somewhere around 110kt. Anywhere from a borderline 2/3 to a borderline 3/4, maybe even low 4, is fair game at this time however.

Preparations should be rushed to completion along the northern Gulf, as things are about to get crazy in these parts...if they haven't already.

I hope no news agency is being definitive with this storm, nor are they hyping it up. Unfortunately, many probably are. This is a very dangerous storm, but it is not going to xxxx area just because you want it to. Be safe, take the necessary precautions, and remember that this storm is as unpredictable as they come. While I feel somewhat confident in my analysis, it's not enough to exclude any part of the Gulf coast.

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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: tenavilla]
      #26939 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:34 AM

I saw that Tena,,,hes good but is trying to get off the hype he did at 6pm. Thing is,,he could be right at 6pm since he didnt see the newest models are showing a more east shift coming up for the 5am update. So this time (like they should) he went with the NHC forcast.

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Clark
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mud1967]
      #26940 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM

mud1967 -- if you are in a low-lying area of Tallahassee, it might be best to leave. Even if the winds don't get high here, rainfall amounts could be locally high. While the airport has not received a lot of rain, most other parts of town have: tonight's storm with a bit of flooding neqar my place showed that to be the case, while many rivers and creeks to the east are above flood stage.

Plus, the Tallahassee power grid is very susceptible to gusty winds and long durations of sustained winds above 20mph. Power lines, many of which are around numerous trees, may well be affected by this storm -- even with 25mph winds, as with Frances. If the winds are even higher, then the impacts will be even greater.

Strongly consider leaving, particularly if you live in a low-lying or tree-canopied area, even if the storm does make landfall near Pensacola/Mobile. Better to play it safe than sorry with these storms.

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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26941 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:38 AM

Great Post there Clark. I been posting the same thing on the boards too. You still in school or you graduate?

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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26942 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:40 AM

IVAN just wobbled due north, I doubt it would stay that way though.

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Clark
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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: BillD]
      #26943 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM

The center of Ivan clipped the west coast of Cuba, technically going inland for a period of time this evening. When the storm is over land, they cannot drop dropsondes into its center because, well, people live on land. Plus, the instruments aren't very useful if they crash into the countryside...and I wouldn't be shocked if the Cuban government doesn't allow them full access to their capabilities while in Cuban airspace, either.

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Clark
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26944 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:41 AM

Graduate student in meteorology.

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scottsvb
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Clark]
      #26945 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:42 AM

You plan on getting into the broadcasting field? Or work at the NWS?

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Clark
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26946 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:45 AM

To answer a couple of other questions...

BillD re: radar fix in RECCO -- it's another factor of the storm being over land. They can't fix the center with a dropsonde if part of it is over land, particularly Cuba, so the best they are able to do is radar. Since an updated position was requested/required, they were tasked to use radar to provide the NHC with such a fix.

Steve -- it's interesting to note, though, that the ETA and many other regional/mesoscale models receive their initial/boundary conditions from the GFS. Whatever the GFS sees along the periphery, so does the Eta. It is true that the GFS occasionally suffers from some convective feedback problems, but I would rather go with a global dynamical model rather than a simplistic dynamical model such as the BAM series...or even a mesoscale model such as the Eta. Personal preference, though, but one that has seemingly proven over time to best handle tropical cyclones. With a complex flow pattern involving Ivan, I think the global model is going to have the better handle on it.

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HCW
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Clark]
      #26947 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:46 AM

From Mobile NWS

SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PARTS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE
OPAL IN 1995 & HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1998. WE WILL BE IN NEAP TIDES
THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE SURGE
VALUES.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26948 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM

Neither -- research is my forte. Tropical meteorology is where it's at (and what I'm currently working on), although there will be smaller concentrations on modeling and midlatitude weather.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: scottsvb]
      #26949 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:48 AM

I completely agree that they should go with the official track. I just don't like to hear them have the "it's a done deal, don't concern yourself with it anymore" attitude.

BTW, sorry if I'm a tad grumpy, but to add to the hurricane stress, we just returned from the hospital. Had a hit and run accident where a car in our neighborhood hit my son on his bike (from behind) then took off. Had to call the police. Son had to get a few staples in his head, minor concussion, sprains, scrapes, etc, but mostly okay.

Back on topic, don't think it's going to hit us directly, but still have a feeling it's going further east than they are currently saying. We'll probably get a little bit of high water, rain and minor wind. Just my opinion, though.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1153
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Clark]
      #26950 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:51 AM

very good. Plz stay at it, I need to go back for more schooling. I have a degree in Met and worked in ruskin NWS for a short skint. But I would need to go back for broadcasting and my masters to move up higher in the Meteorolgy field. Hope you make it.

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mud1967
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 42
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Clark]
      #26951 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:54 AM

I totally agree about the trees!! They are very beautiful but in a storm power outages seem to be frequent.

If it does go as far as Ft Walton or PC I know that I can't stay.

How likeky is it that it will come that far east?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: Clark]
      #26952 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:56 AM

Offshore Gulf of Mexico Forecast
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004
.TONIGHT AND TUE...HIGHEST WIND 140 KT GUSTS 170 KT NEAR CENTER OF Ivan. S OF 26N E OF 89W TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITH ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 58 FT.
ELSEWHERE S OF 28N WIND N TO NE 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 15 FT. N OF 28N WIND E 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 8 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF Ivan.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...HIGHEST WIND 135 KT GUSTS 165 KT NEAR CENTER OF Ivan. TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER N OF 23N WITH ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 55 FT. S OF 23N WIND WLY 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF Ivan.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...HIGHEST WIND 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT NEAR CENTER OF Ivan...DECREASING 120 KT GUSTS 145 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WIND N OF 24N. ESTIMATED HIGHEST SEAS 50 FT. S OF 24N WIND SW 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN 240 NM OF Ivan.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 12:58 AM)


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waatcher
Unregistered




would you? [Re: mud1967]
      #26953 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:01 AM

i know this subject hasn't been up for a while but i haven't had time to post since then.
i saw a few people kind of busting on Mayor Nagin (of New Orleans) for issuing voluntary evacuation.

But can you imagine being the mayor of New Orleans who didnt issue evacuation if something did hit??

anywhos..i notice lots of peeps on this board still feel Ivan may be heading more to FL

I also notice on the New Orleans boards they think its coming here without a doubt.

i'm beting if i went to a SC board they would all think it coming there.

does anyone here envision any danger for new orleans

thoughts with anyone in the path


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: would you? [Re: waatcher]
      #26954 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:05 AM

Depending on what part of the City you live in, and your proximity to 1-the Lake, 2-the Levee, 3-the floodgates.
If you have had knee deep water in your street in the last 7 years you need to find higher ground.
7 years ago the Airport flooded.
You, me and most of the rest of the folks here are under a Hurricane Watch. If your area flash floods from 1 inch of rain, I would personally get out. Baton Rouge looks okay at this hour, but that won't last long.

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 14 2004 01:08 AM)


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103177
Registered User


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Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #26955 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:06 AM

I have lived in Tampa my entire life, 46 years, and have seen a lot of strange things happen with these storms. With a major Hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico that is still South of my location, the wood stays up!

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USFTampa
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 10
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: 103177]
      #26956 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:10 AM

I would have to agree with you. Despite what I hear and what the NHC forecasts, I still just can't understand their logic. It just seems a right hand turn toward the east makes more sense based on the erratic activity. I just know one word that still keeps me wary: Elena.

--------------------
J-Roc
USF Climatology Grad Student


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


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Loc: Lakeland, FL
Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves [Re: MikeC]
      #26957 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:15 AM

Sorry to jump off topic

Looks like we're going to stay busy; Ivan in the Gulf, TD11 in the leewards and something new from Africa.



Full size:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html


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waatcher
Unregistered




Re: would you? [Re: danielw]
      #26958 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM

3 blocks off the river but within the flood protection zone of the French Quarter

i dunno..i'm so confused
even the mets on this forum think its going to FL

2 dogs and 3 cats and other stuffs

maks thinking of evac dificult


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
Re: would you? [Re: waatcher]
      #26959 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:18 AM

NO is one of those places that has to start evacs well before they are sure that the hurricane is coming their way. It takes a long time to move all the people in the area that are in danger ... and they have to do it before escape routes go under water. There's a dip in Interstate 10 that goes under a RR bridge that is like 12 feet below sea level...

'shana


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Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: danielw]
      #26960 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:22 AM

Here is a link that shows you the GOM wave height.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: would you? [Re: waatcher]
      #26961 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:30 AM

Here are some links related to Hurricanes in New Orleans. Try them all maybe they will help.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/?/washingaway/


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chuck325
Unregistered




Re: OOZ GFS... [Re: wxman007]
      #26963 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:44 AM

WXMAN do you still belive its going to hit Pensacola please let me know Cause I live in P-cola.

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Londovir
Weather Guru


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Posts: 100
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Gulf Wave Heights [Re: chuck325]
      #26964 - Tue Sep 14 2004 01:57 AM

Something else to watch buoys in the Gulf and notice the wave heights going up. You have Station 42039 (115nm ESE Pensacola) that has slowly grown to 7.2ft wave height from 4.6ft 24 hours ago. Even more impressive is Station 42003 (260nm S Panama City) that went from 5.6ft to 12.5ft over 24 hours.

This isn't even the storm central area, either. This is just the wonderful wave heights building as the winds push the water of the Gulf northward.

Darn, I gotta hope against hope this thing just gets sheared to heck and back and becomes a minimal Cat 1 on landfall. To hope for anything else is to wish grief on people somewhere on the Gulf Coast...

--------------------
Londovir


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Unlucky
Unregistered




Re:Educated Guess [Re: chuck325]
      #26965 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:01 AM

Even though the track does go to mobile I have a sneeking suspicion that the storm is going to make land fall between gulf shores al. and Navarre bch in florida. Does anybody else feel that is going to happen: most likley a P-cola landfall......AND A NOTE TO THE NEWSCASTERS AND METEROLOGISTS AND THE MAYOR OF NEW ORLEANS ON JUMPING THE GUN LIKE THEY DID IN THE KEYS THEIR GOING TO FIND OUT THAT ALL THEIR GOING TO GET IS A STIFF BREZZE OUT OF THE NORTH........UNLESS FOR SOME REASON THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE TROUGH DIPPING DOWN RETREATED WEST WHICH IS HIGHLY UNLIKLEY I DONT KNOW HOW THEY CAN EVEN CONCLUDE A N.O HIT. AGAIN UNLESS I MISSING SOMETHING PLEASE LET ME KNOW?

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FunkyLamb
Registered User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re:Educated Guess [Re: Unlucky]
      #26966 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:06 AM

The much talked about trough is pushing NE. The other problem is the high over Florida may increase a bit. According to local mets, the next deep trough will get here right about the time landfall occurs.

On top of all of that, the shearing winds seemed to have dissapated tonight.

1AM CDT...Pressure up to 922mb.

--------------------
FunkyLamb

I'm just a simple man trying to make my way in the universe.


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Musings at 1:45AM [Re: Londovir]
      #26967 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:11 AM

Disclaimer: I am not a Met, I do not have the learning to make an accurate forecast if the storm was on top of me, I just might say it's sunny and clear. With that said...

Right now, my fear, once again, is the idea that people may start dropping their guard when weather forecasters say, "this storm is not a threat." A cat 5 storm in the gulf of mexico is a threat to anyone and everyoe on the Gulf Coast. With the terrible performance of the models up to this point (has any model managed to predict this storm with any consistancy yet????) I'm even less inclined to trust any model that takes a storm one way or another. In fact, until the storm started turning more north, I was seriously debating if just extrapolating the movement would be more accurate than any model runs.

But now, the storm has started to recurve. An interesting thing I'd heard a while back: Storms tend to follow a parabolic or Hyperbolic path. Which to me, means North East. But when?

So,by logic, this would mean to me, the storm has nearly reached the furthest possible westward movement. Also by this logic, once the storm begins it's Eastward componant, it'll move into a ENE motion at some point.

Everything hinges on when.

And, at this point, I don't even want to think when....

Go Falcons! 1-0
Mark


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


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Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: Bloodstar]
      #26968 - Tue Sep 14 2004 02:22 AM

At the risk of sounding crazy, I have been looking at water vapor loops tonight and the pictures I am looking at unless they are way hours old, tell the story. The hurricane is going to go where the moisture is available. It will not break out over into the dry areas shown on the loops. That places the cane due north into the area between Tallahassee and Appalachicola. The storm is going to wobble back and forth positioning itself I believe off the western Central Gulf and Peninsula of Florida, but the moisture is due north of the cane and not to the west as of the pix I am seeing. I do not see any more moisture folding in anytime soon either. The westerly flow towards the east is obvious and I think that when they have new pix to show (probably after the eclipse) we will see more of the story. I don't say this lightly as I have family in this direction, but, the only other solution I see would be for the cane to spin down to an annoyance to spare the Tallahassee/Georgia/Jacksonville/Carolinas area or worse yet get back into the Atlantc and then raise some more Cane!!! Take this with a grain of salt. This weather approaching from the south is making my bones ache and keeping me awake I have to be at work later today no matter whether I got any sleep or not.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: tenavilla]
      #26969 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:33 AM

Quote:

The met on the ABC affiliate here (can't remember his name, wears suspenders) just said that because the NHC shifted the 11pm west, this means they are "very confident with the forecast track" and basically told us we were completely out of the woods. He said all we have to worry about this week is normal afternoon thunderstorms. He

went on to say Ivan was pretty much out of time to make the northeast turn to affect us. Seems a tad premature to me. Definitely don't want it here, but I don't see how a met can say it definitely won't affect us either.




At some point in time, you simply have to trust the NHC and their expertise with these storms.
Look, we got hit with two storms this season which is an Extreme Rarity.
Most hurricanes that enter the gulf go NW then N and do NOT make a hard NE turn into the peninsula of Florida.
We are all sufering from post hurricane stress and think every storm is at our doorstep.
This one is the upper gulf coasts storm.


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Elaine H
Verified CFHC User


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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #26970 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM

They are looking pretty accurate from the Sat pics. I am glad to miss this one in Tampa Bay. Right now I am hoping for a drop in intensity for the gulf coast. All we can do now is hope for the best and that everyone is prepared.

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chinook
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Loc: Larimer County, Colorado
Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26971 - Tue Sep 14 2004 05:43 AM

"At the risk of sounding crazy, I have been looking at water vapor loops tonight and the pictures I am looking at unless they are way hours old, tell the story. The hurricane is going to go where the moisture is available."

There's nothing crazy about your observations at all. Here's my hunch in the context of the events of the last several days, and why. I'll start with the modeling. Clearly, CAT5 is beyond the range of available data. Any competent analyst/researcher that builds an empirical model provides ranges from sample data and precautions to users regarding extrapolations, i.e. projections beyond the ability of source data to estimate conditions, location, etc. But in the "real" world, by the time model output is dropped in the laps of (1) those that execute the programs, and (2) the end user, all precautions are gone or ignored. Mix in the politics and federal funds, and output mysteriously becomes biblical. Thus, each day the models screw up, folks go to bed, and then everyone starts a new day to see where the models point, all in an atmosphere of total effective amnesia regarding the previous day's failure. It's groundhog day all over again. I know there are a lot of sensitivities out there, but it is unreasonable to claim the models do better today than they did 20 years ago, and then use the statement to justify repeated gross error. So what. The models blew it back at Jamaica at best, and probably back in Grenada. End of story. One contributor last night posted an image of daily misses vs. Ivan's actual track. This was an interesting exercise that reveals persistent bias, but the approach suffers from, in a sense, serial correlation - errors each day that should be compounded, or propagated, and that are dependent on previous errors, are ignored. Once Ivan left the prediction "cone" many days earlier, meaning it effectively left the (presumed) 95% bounds for the predicted value(s) output by the models, the models had failed, the projected track left Ivan, and it's back to the drawing board for a new model. It no longer matters, from a modeling perspective, if Ivan now hangs a sharp right and does a 90 into Florida (just an example, folks). The models failed.

Granted, forecasting is extraordinarily complex and encumbered by sparse data. Folks in the way 2 or 3 days out need a feel for what to expect in the form of impending danger. Model runs will continue. But as Ivan virtually straightlined through the Caribbean, rather than shoot up the west Florida coast, posters here and presumably everywhere recognized the apparent land aversion. Even the special effort Ivan made over the last couple of days to avoid Cuba draws attention. As such, given this is a monster CAT5, there is not a reason in the world to believe any model was going to predict back at Grenada that this would be the path. There are simply too few observations (available data), and too many fundamental voids in theory, to expect any better. Nor do I recall in the casual surfing I've done during this circus that any forecaster called this path back at Grenada, though as a sheer matter of probability, one is out there somewhere. JB got close in his own way, but he bailed.

Thus, speculation about outlier hurricane behavior is by no means out of place. Nobody else has it figured out, that's for sure. Perhaps new thinking is required, and this is how the model revamping process starts. For example, maybe the apparent land aversion is not a land aversion at all. Maybe, for a hurricane of this strength, the rules change. Perhaps water vapor is the answer; here's my gut feeling. Perhaps a very large hurricane must be viewed not as just an intense cyclone, but as a body of (relatively) hot water looking for a release mechanism, thermodynamics in action, where guiding winds and low and high pressure systems are of much lesser importance. In this sense, Hurricane Caribbean ended last night, and with morning we say hello to Hurricane Gulf of Mexico. The cyclone itself is the energy release mechanism that has just by chance become available (where "by chance" means we do not have the understanding necessary to explain and accurately project the release mechanism's birth and transport). So while we watched Ivan's eye meander somewhat and the system appeared to avoid land, perhaps what was really happening is that the tremendous energy in the hot bath of the Caribbean, the core of what we are observing as an energy system, simply would not let go of the energy release mechanism. Similarly, perhaps water vapor has it's own role to play, since we are dealing with highly complex energy systems.

I grant these ideas can and will be easily criticized for being trivial, simplistic, ignorant and practically redundant. But nobody has gotten Ivan right yet. Importantly, we must question the wisdom of providing 5-day incorrect misleading error-laden forecasts, particularly for an outlying event for which there is little precedence and at best sparse data. Surely people died in accidents of various sorts (cars, heart attacks, fights, emotional standoffs and domestic disputes) as they fled or boarded-up under incorrect pretenses. We will not hear about them. To state, as some have, that it is better to be safe than sorry, is to succumb to the precautionary principle. Should we live lives of total paranoia? Maybe Long Island should be evacuated, just in case. Heck, we might as well evacuate Colorado, just in case. Just how safe should we be, and how wrong should models be before we finally draw a line and say wait - there must be a better way. After all, it's our taxes that are paying for the models, and taxpayers' lives that are endangered.

Sure, hurricanes are complex circulations that are tossing moist and dry air all over the place. But maybe there is something to your water vapor idea...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re:1000z Update [Re: chinook]
      #26972 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:20 AM

5AM Probabilities Short version
I am going straight to the text version with this. I realize the models probably dictate the probability output, but plain numbers work better for some folks.
Here's the breakdown for selected cities. You can view the full report under the Probabilities heading.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/140838.shtml?
From the Big Bend area west:Total thru 2AM Fri
Cedar Key= 7%
St Marks=12%
Appalachicola=14%
Panama City=16%
Pensacola=21%
Mobile=23%
Gulfport=23%
Buras,LA( Mouth of the MS RVR) =25%
New Orleans=22%
New Iberia=16%
Chances of center of hurricane passing within 65nm of the location thru 2AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 346
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #26973 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:21 AM

The water vapor loop refelcts a huge dry air mass coming down from the Northwest. The experts must see this pulling up more than the pix show.

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storm 1
Unregistered




Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #26974 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:32 AM

the center seems to be getting blown apart this thing is about to come apart maybe a 2 at land fall with no west side good luck guys.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3518
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Center [Re: storm 1]
      #26975 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:37 AM

Nice thought, but I don't believe it will happen.
He's been holding his own no matter what.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Kingwood, Texas
Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: HCW]
      #26976 - Tue Sep 14 2004 06:42 AM

Quote:

From Mobile NWS

SURGE REACHES 8 TO 10 FEET PARTS OF DAUPHIN ISLAND WILL BE
BREACHED AS WILL PARTS OF PENSACOLA BEACH. STORM SURGE VALUES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE WILL BE GREATER THAN OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA IN HURRICANE
OPAL IN 1995 & HURRICANE GEORGE IN 1998. WE WILL BE IN NEAP TIDES
THURSDAY MORNING SO HIGH TIDE VALUES WILL NOT ADD MUCH TO THE SURGE
VALUES.




If the moon is new, which I believe it is..... isn't that constructive interference and thus a spring tide and a larger tidal range?

--------------------
Terra Dassau Cahill


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
Clark, [Re: scottsvb]
      #26977 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:28 AM

excellent post, and you have confirmed many of my thoughts as well. Accuweather sees this as getting as far as 89 west, but I don't see it either. After not wanting to turn, this turned more than expected. As of this writing, the h2o pic shows the ULL is STILL digging. I think it was expected to be lifting out by now.

Edited by MrSpock (Tue Sep 14 2004 07:29 AM)


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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Re: Storm Surge and Waves [Re: Clark]
      #26978 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:31 AM

Last year when my wife and I went to Jamaica, we were told we weren't allowed to take pictures when we flew over Cuba, and they alerted us to that fact, so your probably right on the dropsonde issue.

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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane, storms, depressions & waves [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #26979 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:37 AM

Hey Skito/all, still don't have power and little time to check models here at work, so help me out please. Future track of soon to be Jean seems to show that it will stay off the east coast and may be a fish. Is this the future track and thinking of the NHC/Mets? Is the ridge going to weaken and now NOT turn it WNW again?? Hope so. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks. Still sweating in Palm Bay.

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MrSpock
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 296
Re: Musings at 1:45AM [Re: chinook]
      #26980 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:43 AM

I have to disagree with you about the models. I am the one who has been posting that they are better now than 20 years ago, and that is a fact. I used models 20 years ago, even more than I do now. I was thrilled to be able to see a 72 hour MRF back then. There were no ensembles that I know of. Do they have errors? Yes, they ALWAYS will. But, remember the ones they get right, and not only the ones they have trouble with. Some error is to be expected. Many forecasters don't even have experience forecasting a storm like this. These are too few and far between.
I will take the ETA or GFS any day over the LFM.
As I said before, the 5 day forecasts are now as accurate as the 3 day forecasts. That shows they can now go out 67% farther in time with the same error, and that IS an improvement.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Terra]
      #26981 - Tue Sep 14 2004 07:57 AM

First of all, check out the 10:45UTC Goes 12 IR. You're going to have to back it up a couple of frames to see.

Goes 12 IR

A face emerged in the eye - Sheep? Dog? Whale? You call it.

Having that out the way, you people in Coastal Mississippi and Coastal Alabama REALLY need to prepare for a major-league storm surge. The 06Z ETA, GFS and other related models are out and have come around to my way of thinking. The storm is going to get very close to the Mouth of the MS and veer a bit N-NNE toward the Mississippi Coast. Whether the system is getting ragged or if we're in another eyewall replacement cycle should be a good indicator of how strong it's going to be at landfall. We're facing a threat of anywhere between a Cat 2 and a Cat 4 (most likely a low-mid 3 IMHO) at landfall. Due to the size of the storm, if I have the right ideas, nasty weather will be farther east all the way to possibly Seaside-Panama City Beach - especially watch out for torandic activity on the fringes east as always.
-------------------------------------------------
I read Bastardi this morning. He's pretty sure it's going to come up to 89 or 88W though 90 is his western-most edge. He thinks there will be hurricane impacts for the Crescent City but notes that this isn't our doomsday scenario ala the hurricane of 1947 where a storm cutting ESE south of the city dumps the Gulf into the Lake and spills the Lake into the city. He sees (on his track) hurricane force north wind gusts, rain, flooding and other assorted problems, but this is not the same as the threat for Mobile if the storm comes up just west of there. Think MASSIVE water piling up into a funnel shaped bay. He also believes the storm will be somewhat slow moving and weakening at landfall. It may have Charley pressure, but not the same surprise impact. He cautioned that Mobile-Pensacola is vulnerable and he will not hesitate to change his ideas if he sees an actual path that is off of his ideas and further east, he will not hesitate to say so.
---------------------------------------------------- Hurricane force winds are expected roughly 100 miles either side of landfall and tropical storm winds are possible 200 miles either way. Therefore, a storm impacting Gulfport would have tropical storm force winds from lower Terrebonne & Lafourche Parishes in LA to just east of Panama City Beach.

This is shaping up to be a storm for all of us on the Northern Gulf Coast. Take care and get those precautions and final preps. I'm getting ready to take the old lady's car over to the tire store to get her some new wheels so she can cruise out to Memphis later this afternoon. As stated last night, I'll be hunkering in expecting some nasty but not destructive weather.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Novice
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26983 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:21 AM

That thing has teeth (the image you were talking about).... Being a novice...what affect should the ULL have on Ivan?

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jth
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26984 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:26 AM

If the GFS moved back west, I would suspect many of the models will follow suit. I think the confidence in the landfall is growing exponentially. The question now is intensity. Someone posted here earlier that there was some fear that the sheer would not be as strong as first thought. Is there any validity to this? I still think it will be a major, even possibly still a cat 4 at landfall.

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dani
Weather Watcher


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Recon [Re: jth]
      #26985 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:31 AM

Is the storm really weakening as fast as the latest numbers projecting. With estimated maximum surface winds at 118 mph?

--------------------
dani

Go Green Bay!


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Steve
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26986 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:32 AM

Not sure about the sheer values, haven't had time to check them. Two local mets discussed that last night. The real question is how far west Ivan can get. He's moved 1W/5N from the 5 to the 7am advisory. He's only near 86.1. So if the western component is out, the threat shifts toward Alabama and West Florida. But the NHC said yesterday that the ridge should work a NW movement after 12 hours which is around this time. Though I think western MS is now the hotspot, I have trouble seeing Ivan getting passed 87.5W. Today will be a nervous one for many! I'm off to the tire store.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed in Va
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Jean as fish? [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #26987 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM

Dunno about mets discussing Jean, but most of these point to a midAtlantic event.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_model.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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HCW
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Ready in Mobile [Re: Ed in Va]
      #26988 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:38 AM

Hopefully the new model runs keep this sucker out of Mobile Bay and away from the Big Easy .

Will finish boarding up today not just the windows on the north and south side but the entire house.

Keep us and the others on the gulfcoast in your prayers over the next several days as we get impacted by a cat 4 monster.

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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DroopGB31
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26989 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:40 AM

Good post Steve, Im evacuating today and will be riding out the storm in Pensacola. Im very nervous and all local mets say they are certain a direct hit near Mobile or Pensacola is likely. They are saying as strong if not stronger then Fredric in 79'. I dunno, but Im done tracking the storm and staring at satellites, Im going to hunker down tonight and hope for the best. This is probably the most excited I've been about a storm since its my first, but its kind of offset by all the stress and fear. Its the wierdest feeling. You love it but you hate it. Oh well Good Luck everyone. I'll post whenever I get back to my house, and have power again. Cheers Keep safe guys.

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jth
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Steve]
      #26990 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:41 AM

What about intesity. I don't want to have a false sense of security, but it appears Ivan may be weakening rapidly this morning. Could be an ERC, but doesn't appear as such. Could weaken all the way to cat 2 alla Frances, but I don't think I buy that. Regardless, as with Frances, the size of the storm is what will matter. There will be damage well inland and well east of the center. Also, as I noted last night, the volume of trees in the Gulf states versus down in Florida will allow for insane power outages. We are being warned up here in Bham to prepare for power outages that could last days.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26991 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:47 AM

Not so sure about weakening. On this view, looks like the western eyewall is rebuilding:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...amp;overlay=off

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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DroopGB31
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26992 - Tue Sep 14 2004 08:50 AM

Unfourtanetly, I dont suspect its rapid weakening. Probably ERC. The gulf isnt that hostile and isnt suspected to be. The water temps drop off though. Near Cuba the water temps are near 90. The gulf only mid 80's. My local met said that would allow Ivan to weaken below Cat 5 but most likely maintain Cat 3 or 4 intensity. Oh well, Lets hope maybe it does weaken more but I get the idea its just not going to weaken to much.
Talk to ya'll when I get back home which hopefully will be Friday or Saturday. Cheers


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jth
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26993 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:12 AM

Last recon had pressure all the way up to 930. That is pretty drastic. I agree that it is probably ERC, but don't know that it will recover as well from this one.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Hey Mike [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26994 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM

I have seen some posts recently in the forum where folks were wishcasting the storm to head one way or another. Mike et al, I hope you disallow those kind of posts in the future as nobody should be wishing death and destruction on fellow human beings.

As for Ivan, he sure has seemed to make a quick northerly jaunt. Almost scary. Seems to me the NHC track might be too far west?? Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?


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Tallahassee
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #26995 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:15 AM

My 15 yr. old son is scheduled to fly out from Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon (going to Detroit for Ryder Cup) and will fly back Friday afternoon. Does anyone have any thoughts on how safe, or unsafe these plans may be?

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tpratch
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Hunkering Down [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26996 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:16 AM

Quote:

Good post Steve, Im evacuating today and will be riding out the storm in Pensacola. Im very nervous and all local mets say they are certain a direct hit near Mobile or Pensacola is likely. They are saying as strong if not stronger then Fredric in 79'. I dunno, but Im done tracking the storm and staring at satellites, Im going to hunker down tonight and hope for the best. This is probably the most excited I've been about a storm since its my first, but its kind of offset by all the stress and fear. Its the wierdest feeling. You love it but you hate it. Oh well Good Luck everyone. I'll post whenever I get back to my house, and have power again. Cheers Keep safe guys.




I mean no offense, and I'm certainly not trying to raise the alarm, but this is probably the wrong storm to hunker down for unless you're well clear of the eye. There's a reason the Saffir-Simpson scale stops at cat 5.

Anything greater than 155 mph will definitely demolish things with great impunity. 156mph or 200mph make little difference - the 200mph winds will just accomplish their destruction more rapidly.

Be safe.


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mlamay
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Re: Hey Mike [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #26997 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:22 AM

I don't think anybody is safe from theis storm until it passes your lattitude, besides its' huge we are expecting 50mph gusts and storm surge and we're over 300mi away from the center of the storm

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hey Mike [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #26998 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM

Quote:

I have seen some posts recently in the forum where folks were wishcasting the storm to head one way or another. Mike et al, I hope you disallow those kind of posts in the future as nobody should be wishing death and destruction on fellow human beings.

As for Ivan, he sure has seemed to make a quick northerly jaunt. Almost scary. Seems to me the NHC track might be too far west?? Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?




"Maybe Tampa isn't out of it yet?" right after a Wishcasting comment . To answer, no Tampa isn't out yet, but it's getting less likely by the hour.

We are fairly leaniant on comments here, athough if you say "ITS COMING RIGHT FOR US!" without an explanation why or with words like URGENT! etc be prepared to get deleted/edited. You don't have to be right.


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Ronn
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: DroopGB31]
      #26999 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:27 AM

I am going to predict landfall around Mobile, AL as a 115mph Cat 3 hurricane. Ivan will soon start entraining dry air into its circulation, which will cause the weakening. It does not appear that shear will be too significant, therefore I am maintaining Cat 3 rather than weakening it further.

God Bless,
Ronn


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saints63213
Unregistered




Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Ronn]
      #27000 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:34 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/140838.shtml?


22.6n 86.0 w

center relocated.


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Nobody important
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: MikeC]
      #27002 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:49 AM

Hope this lightens up your day a little!......topic: Hurricane Preparations:

You all should be aware of hurricane preparations, but in case you need a refresher course: We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any minute now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic Ocean and making two basic meteorological points.

(1) There is no need to panic.

(2) We could all be killed.

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one."

Based on our insurance industry experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

STEP 1: Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for at least three days.


STEP 2: Put these supplies into your car.


STEP 3: Drive to Nebraska and remain there until Halloween.


Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida. We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:


HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE: If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately, this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets two basic requirements:


(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Wisconsin


Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental floss.

SHUTTERS:

Your house should have hurricane shutters on all the windows, all the doors. There are several types of shutters, with advantages and
disadvantages:

Plywood shutters: The advantage is that, because you make them yourself, they're cheap.


Sheet-metal shutters: The advantage is that these work well, once you get them all up. The disadvantage is that once you get them all up, your hands will be useless bleeding stumps, and it will be December.


Roll-down shutters: The advantages are that they're very easy to use, and will definitely protect your house. The disadvantage is that you will have to sell your house to pay for them.


Hurricane-proof windows: These are the newest wrinkle in hurricane protection: They look like ordinary windows, but they can withstand hurricane winds! You can be sure of this, because the salesman says so. He lives in Nebraska.


Hurricane Proofing your property: As the hurricane approaches, check your yard for movable objects like barbecue grills, planters, patio furniture, visiting relatives, etc... you should, as a precaution, throw these items into your swimming pool (if you don't have a swimming pool, you should have one built immediately). Otherwise, the hurricane winds will turn these objects into deadly missiles.



EVACUATION ROUTE:


If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look at your driver's license; if it says "Florida," you live in a low-lying area.) The purpose of having an evacuation route is to avoid being trapped in your home when a major storm hits. Instead, you will be trapped in a gigantic traffic jam several miles from your home, along with two hundred thousand other evacuees. So, as a bonus, you will not be lonely.



HURRICANE SUPPLIES:



If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious fights with strangers over who gets the last can of cat food. In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:



23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in a hurricane, but it looks cool.)



A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask anybody who went through Andrew; after the hurricane, there WILL be irate alligators.)

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.



Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck and remember: It's great living in Paradise.


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tenavilla
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27003 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:51 AM

Quote:

At some point in time, you simply have to trust the NHC and their expertise with these storms.
Look, we got hit with two storms this season which is an Extreme Rarity.
Most hurricanes that enter the gulf go NW then N and do NOT make a hard NE turn into the peninsula of Florida.
We are all sufering from post hurricane stress and think every storm is at our doorstep.
This one is the upper gulf coasts storm.





If you read my earlier posts, you would see that I have no problem going with the NHC forecasts. I think they are a little off, but still the best we have. That being said, you are wrong when you say hurricanes don't make hard rights, Charley did. Elena turned completely around and went the other way. So...I will never be convinced that just because the NHC says it's going one way, we should blindly trust that and not pay attention to the storm. It is still well south of us, and Charley is still too fresh.


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JackLove
Unregistered




Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: Tallahassee]
      #27004 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM

Quote:

My 15 yr. old son is scheduled to fly out from Tallahassee tomorrow afternoon (going to Detroit for Ryder Cup) and will fly back Friday afternoon. Does anyone have any thoughts on how safe, or unsafe these plans may be?




Safety speculation is best left up to the airline in question, but it's a pretty good bet the carrier won't fly if it feels the local conditions are unsafe.

The greatest risk to your travelling son is that TLH will be closed by Friday, when Ivan is predicted to be close to, if not on top of, the Gulf Coast. He might have to spend a few extra days in DET before normal traffic resumes. Plan accordingly!


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carolt_melbourne
Unregistered




Re: Gulf Wave Heights [Re: Londovir]
      #27005 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:52 AM

Not to get too off-topic, but I was watching the Canaveral 20-mile buoy (41009) during Frances. The last prediction I saw at Virtualbuoy, before I lost power, was for 36'. It only made it to 27' early that Sunday morning ... just before it came loose and drifted out to sea. (they got it back) Lesson being - when the buoy you're watching breaks its mooring, you know you're in trouble.

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mlamay
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: tenavilla]
      #27006 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:54 AM

You are completely right. Anything could happen. I still have a bad feeling about this storm. I am not wishcasting, I am being prepared.

--------------------
Matt
Chase 22 Clearwater, FL
Stormnet


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tenavilla
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Re: Repost on new ETA [Re: jth]
      #27007 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:57 AM

Quote:

We are being warned up here in Bham to prepare for power outages that could last days.





I lived in B'ham for several years before we moved down here. Heck, power used to go out in Mountain Brook for days from severe thunderstorms, can't even imagine what this would do.


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anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mlamay]
      #27008 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM

According to Accuweather, Ivan is expected to start moving more westerly soon. The trough is quickly pulling out to the north and east, the high pressure over Texas is moving west, and the high to east does not seem to moving any further east.

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JackLove
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: Nobody important]
      #27009 - Tue Sep 14 2004 09:58 AM

Quote:

Hope this lightens up your day a little!......topic: Hurricane Preparations:

[..]

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some!)





A couple of drops of bleach in a gallon of water will go a long way towards making the water potable. It's a classic survival technique not meant for a permanent solution, but it;s better than drinking water with nasty germs in it.


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: mlamay]
      #27010 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:00 AM

Hey Clearwater:

Did you see the met on the abc affiliate from Tampa last night at 5 p.m.? He saw the storm turn North and stated that if this was true the models would be pushed east at the 11 o'clock update. He stated that the NHC did not have this Northern turn in its 5 o'clock models.

I researched this and noted that yesterday's 5 p.m. advisory from the NHC stated that for the next 12 hours the storm would track NNW. At 5 p.m. the coordinates were 21.3 N and 84.9 W. They estimated that in 12 hours the storm would be at 22.7 N and 85.7 W, a NNW track. I cannot believe how irresponsible his comments were. All he had to do was look at the 5 p.m. advisory and see that this Northern track was expected. As it turned out, the storm began tracking NW, thus the 11 p.m track had to be adjusted to the west. The Tampa Bay area has been jittery for a month now. His comments were unwarranted.


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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered




Re: Hey Mike [Re: MikeC]
      #27011 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:04 AM

All the models are now in relatively close agreement with a PCB to NO (Pensacola?) landfall...

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?9

At some point model concensus should overcome wishcasting, should it not...?


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tpratch
Moderator


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Re: Hey Mike [Re: Tarpon]
      #27012 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:05 AM

Everyone loves Dave Barry.

Everyone loves quoting his "Hurricane Preparation Guide for Guys".

nobody seems to want to simply give the link

Dave Barry's Hurricane Preparation Guide for Guys

So, it seems nobody has wanted to shift partial focus to the future Jeanne yet. Is she just going to sit in the Atlantic and scare the fishes, or is she potentially a threat to the East Coast of Florida again?

Edited by tpratch (Tue Sep 14 2004 10:09 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Hey Mike [Re: Tarpon]
      #27013 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:06 AM

Yes Tampa stll isnt going to even get TS winds. Jeanne btw will be named at 11am winds near 40mph,. 1005 pressure, expect this to increase to 50mph by 5pm or when recon goes in. Anyways my landfall for my 3 day forcast 2 days ago is still Biloxi-Mobile. Expect landfall late in the afternoon or evening and winds around 120mph. Movement will be N or NNE at landfall. Storm surge around 8 - 10 ft. Rainfall amounts up to 10 inches ahead and near center of landfall. NO might get some gusts to hurricane force but I expect TS force winds. Many tornados will be spawned in the Panama City-Mobile area. I expect a slow movement thru alabama then increase in forward speed along the app mts.

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Spectrum24
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mlamay]
      #27014 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:07 AM

I've been lurking around this board for a few years, and finally want to say something. I can't imagine for any reason why someone would WANT a hurricane to come to their area. At a minimum, you'll lose power from days to weeks. In case you haven't noticed, it's Florida (well, it is here anyway). it's summer. it's HOT. it's HUMID. you will be VERY uncomforable. In a major storm, you will also very likely have damage. Because insurance is now 2% hurricane deductible, YOU will have to pay a lot of money to get things fixed. Frances was TS by the time it got here to tampa, but several walls leaked, and water came up though the floor. My house has furniture all over it, I had to move out of my bedroom, and it's going to cost me a couple grand to fix. and this was for a T.S. People, if you haven't seen a real hurricane (I was in Miami for Andew), then just count your lucky stars. If you insist on wishcasting, wish it to the north atlantic where it can die. End of rant.

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Justin in Miami
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Good Luck! [Re: DroopGB31]
      #27015 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:08 AM

Droop...I know the feeling....the feeling of wow I have tracked these storms for a long time...and now one is heading right at me! The good news is that you will be SAFE assuming you will be in a concrete building, hopefully with shutters, and away from the storm surge area. My recollection of Andrew was that we felt better knowing that we did all we could do to protect our family and property; everything else we could not control. Good luck...take lots of pictures/videos...you will want to remember this storm!

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MrSpock
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: anonymous]
      #27016 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:36 AM

I don't agree with Accuweather's forecast then. Trough is not rapidly lifting out as per H2O pic, and the motion seems more NNW, and I feel it is becoming less likely it will turn left again. 89W long. is not in my forecast.
By the way, Joe B gave an excellent interview last night on O'Reilly, with respect to why patterns are changing, etc.


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Spectrum24]
      #27017 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:37 AM

Excellent post. These wishcasters have no idea what they are wishing for. I'm in No. Pinellas County and you should see the dead trees waiting to be picked up from a tropical storm. Fellow workers were without power for 5 days. I can't stand it without A/C in November let alone the middle of September. The deductible for hurricane damage on my home is over $3,000. For now we appear safe in Tampa Bay for this storm. I'm praying like crazy Ivan gets sheared down to 100 MPH or less at landfall.

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cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Good Link to a Moored Bouy close to Ivans path [Re: MikeC]
      #27018 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:40 AM

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 16.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.72 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.7 F


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
TV out of New Orleans [Re: MrSpock]
      #27019 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:41 AM

Anyone interested in monitoring New Orleans.

WWLTV.Com is live streaming their video.


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Ronn
User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 115
Loc: Seminole, FL
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: mlamay]
      #27020 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:43 AM

Ivan is not going to hook to the NE anytime soon. The trough that has caused the NNW movement during the past 12-18 hours is pulling out, and Ivan will now start being steered by the strong ridge to his east. Ivan will probably start moving more NW before curving NNE ahead of the trough coming from the central US. This places landfall anywhere from the FL panhandle to New Orleans, with my predicted target of Mobile.

Yes, people here in the Tampa Bay area have been in a state of panic, but we would have been more prepared than ever for a significant hurricane. It is doubtful that we will have such a response to future threats in future years.

God Bless,
Ronn


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Ronn]
      #27021 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:47 AM

Noticed on last recon that the inner eye wall had collapsed. Does this mean that we are indeed in an ERC? Again, it will not regain Cat 5 status, but could it maintain Cat 4 to landfall???

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: jth]
      #27022 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM

11am update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 932 MB.

One heck of a drop...

Or should I say drop in windspeed, increase in pressure?

Edited by tpratch (Tue Sep 14 2004 10:50 AM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
TS Jeanne [Re: Ronn]
      #27023 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:49 AM

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200411_5day.html

hmm....i can't wait!


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
11am update [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27024 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:51 AM

How'd I miss this part?

"AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 260 MILES."

260 Mile radius = 520 Miles of Tropical Storm or higher. Ho-leee...


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Spectrum24]
      #27025 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM

I'm in Indialantic, FL and we evacuated to the panhandle for Frances. We basically wanted to get out of the window of that storm totally for the sake of our 4 yr old boy. We didn't want him to experience any of the effects of a storm like that because it could be traumatic for him. We experienced the storm by reading online and watching the Weather Channel. It wasn't until we got home that we experienced exactly what this storm had done. We basically got hit , in our area because it wasn't a direct hit ,by a Cat 1 storm . Melbourne had sustained winds of 75mph or whatever with gusts up to 95mph for a long period of time. The damage is way worse than I thought it would be but still could have been so much more. Anyone who wants anything stronger than this hitting them is out of their minds in my opinion. They just don't really understand what they are wishing for. It's not exciting ...it devastates peoples lives.... really need to think about that before you start wishing it comes at you.

Edited by richisurfs (Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM)


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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
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Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Ronn]
      #27026 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:52 AM

Ronn, I just hope that people aren't too disappoointed in Tampa area.

I suspect there are those that are out on the beach looking West at the clouds and still thinking the worst.

I knew last Friday when we bought plywood that the storm would miss the area. I did not buy plywood for the first two storms but did this time..........go figure.
Anyway, if it kept Ivan away.......it was worth it.


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jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27027 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM

Not the sign I wanted to see, but the new forecast has Ivan go down to 115 kts, but then strengthen just prior to landfall to 120kts. Also, the new forecast is an absolute worst case scenario for Mobile. Landfall on the MS/AL border would cause Mobile Bay to absolutely inundate Downtown Mobile.

Also, still expected to be a hurricane/TS well inland.


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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #27028 - Tue Sep 14 2004 10:56 AM

it has moved some nne.

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tenavilla
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 95
Loc: Tampa Area
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: jth]
      #27029 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:02 AM

Sure is taking a long time for the discussion. Advisory has been out for 20 minutes now.

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STORM CHASER
Unregistered




Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: meto]
      #27030 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:04 AM

Quote:

it has moved some nne.




where do you see that?


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: STORM CHASER]
      #27032 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:09 AM

I think he has been wishing it to move NNE the entire time...could be wrong but it sure seems that way. No offense intended Meto.

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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tenavilla]
      #27033 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:10 AM

Quote:

Sure is taking a long time for the discussion. Advisory has been out for 20 minutes now.




It's up now.


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27034 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:11 AM

I believe in the NHC forecast track

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tpratch]
      #27035 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM

They moved the projected path slightly more to the west

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meto
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 140
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27036 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:12 AM

you dont know what i want it looked that way on TWC,

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Strengthening prior to landfall??? [Re: tenavilla]
      #27037 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:13 AM

The current situation with the storm is that its circulation has captured much of that dry air trailing the trough along the coast and is rapidly pulling it into its western circulation. This will cause furthere weakening and its cat V and IV hours are limited if not over.
i guess the current thinking of the forecast into the central gulf coast incuded the assumption that the storm was so big and powerful it could actuall push the convergence point between the lower pressure trough and the ATL ridge north, but if it weakens some that may not occur. that point has been set up around 27N and 87west for the past couple of days and the upper air flow is radically ene from there into the big bend area. I still suspect land fall could be around Apalacheecola as I stated yesterday especially if a smaller and weaker Ivan is more likely to be influenced by these upper air flows.

--------------------
doug


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richisurfs
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: meto]
      #27038 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:16 AM

I'll stick by what the NHC is saying. I have family in the panhandle and they are trying right now to make a decision on what to do. They might come down here to stay with us. Last week we went up there. Pretty ironic.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: 00z NOGAPS [Re: richisurfs]
      #27042 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:33 AM

Good advice...anything I said is only for discussion. IF NHC thinks this is a N.O. storm, so be it Cat III there will be very dangerous

--------------------
doug


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD [Re: doug]
      #27043 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:34 AM

NEW THREAD UP!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1421
Loc: Florida
Turns, Twists & Tempers [Re: meto]
      #27045 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:39 AM

If anyone looked at the picture they just showed on the Weather Channel, it certainly looked to be going NORTH at THAT PRECISE MOMENT IN TIME.
People are allowed to say what they see, and I don't think that meto was "wishcasting" anything.
As far as the storm not turning, at this point, I think that the NHC is becoming more confident in it's track and I do not think that Ivan will make a hard right and turn into Tampa Bay. That being said, today is Tuesday, landfall is supposed to occur around Thursday. That's 2 days away. I believe with Frances 2 days out they were forecasting it to possibly move up the coast of the Carolinas, and even some people here were agreeing with that forecast. The bottom line is this: Frances turned, Charley turned. When did they turn? Charley turned about 4 hours before he was supposed to hit Tampa. Frances turned and kept everyone on their toes for about 12 hours. I don't think it was until she almost made landfall that they were able to nail the precise place. Two days out, a little shove to the north, maybe a little bit of of turn to the east and the forecast changes again for a whole lot of people. I'm not say this is going to happen, I'm saying it's POSSIBLE. Hopefully, the models have a good handle on this thing right now and we're only 2 days away so I don't see a huge track shift coming in the future.
Tarpon---this is kind of ironic, but you posted about Dennis Phillips and how irresponsible his comments were last night. I watched him and he said "IF THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES, AND IT COULD BE JUST A JOG, THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT". He was correct about the models not getting the new info because it had just started that trend. At 5:15pm, only two of the models had the new info and they DID swing it to the right. However, if you listened to him during the following hours, he corrected himself many times, as he was doing updates every 1/2 hour. I was watching the game and I saw him. At 12:something, he said it WAS JUST A JOG. I don't think he was being irresponsible. The reason I say it is ironic is because when I was on him about Frances, you were defending him as being one of the best out there. Go figure. Just like us, he saw the northward movement, too. Then it moved again to the NW.

I think all Floridians are a little uncomfortable and testy right now. We've been on STORM ALERT mode for over a month. Nerves are frayed, tempers are flaring and these things bring out the best and worst of us. We need to try and remember that when posting to one another. We're all in the same boat. I know I said a lot of prayers last night asking that this storm comes in well below a Cat 5 because after seeing two come directly over me, a Cat 1 isn't any fun either.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Redbird
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: 103177]
      #27046 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:42 AM

See you don't want to get caught uncovered if this pulls a Charley and lands where it aint supposed to.........those of us in e central florida have jean to watch.

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anon
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: Redbird]
      #27052 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:51 AM

the west CONUS wv loop shows a possible "crazy Ivan" move to port..... i sure hope not......

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ddrehman
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: anon]
      #27055 - Tue Sep 14 2004 11:56 AM

Could you give a link to that satellite image please. Thank you.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
NEW THREAD!!! [Re: ddrehman]
      #27056 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:01 PM

Folks, Mike Put Up A NEW THREAD an hour ago...you should post there. Thanks!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Tarpon
Unregistered




Re: Turns, Twists & Tempers [Re: Colleen A.]
      #27066 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:19 PM

I did defend him during Charlie. However, during last nights news, I don't think it was that important that it moved north as the NHC advisory stated that we would be seeing a NNW track for the next 12 hours.

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anon
Unregistered




Re: Hurricane Watches Up from Morgan City, LA to St. Marks Florida [Re: ddrehman]
      #27076 - Tue Sep 14 2004 12:28 PM

here's the link: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

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