Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Atlantic Basin Is Quiet.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 145 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3320 (9 y 1 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4
      #27698 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:04 PM

Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM and running radio from Jamaica at other times... -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
7:00PM
Pressure down to 931 MB, windspeed being held at 135, but may respond to the pressure drop soon. 105miles south of mobile bay.

Near downtown Mobile along the bay storm surge may be as high as 16 feet.

6:30PM
Ongoing monitoring continues...

4:54PM
Tornado reported on the ground in Panama City, captured by video from wjhg's tower cam. (Yes Jason Kelly's station)
2 people reported killed by tornado..

5PM advisory out for Ivan, pressure to 933, winds remain same but probably will ramp up to follow the pressure drop. It has responded to the warm eddy it was over, winds may go up but it seems likely as a cat 4 landfall now.


Wave hights of 42-50 ft (Fourty-Two to Fifty feet) were recorded
at a buoy 75 miles south of Dauphin Island.

Good Luck All!

4:42PM
Hurricane Watches up for the southeastern Bahama islands for Jeanne.

4:30PM
Recon reports a pressure of 933mb, it has gotten stronger since 2pm.

Huge Version of this Pic

Looks to be stronger...


Original Update
Jeanne has made landfall in Puerto Rico as a strong Tropical Storm.

Meanwhile...

Hurricane Ivan is maintaining itself strength wise as it moves closer to the Gulf coast. We are watching the track extremely close.

Movement of Ivan appears to be almost due north right now... Aircraft recon reports pressure down 2mb to 937 from the 2pm advisory.



More to Come...

Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop

** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.

Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use

Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606

Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Buoy Reports from a buoy near Ivan
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Saddath and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne

Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27703 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:22 PM

I am afraid we may see a VERY strong Cat IV or possibly a V at land fall. Ivan is really intensifying.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27704 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:24 PM

I don't think it will be a cat 5 (less than 10% chance), conditions aren't good enough for it. It will hold around what it is now. Recon reports are key to figuring out what it's really doing in there.

Pressure has dropped down to 937 according to the latest vortex message.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Orlando
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27705 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:27 PM

Also, Jeanne had a remarkably well-defined eye on the radar in the hours leading to landfall, especially for a tropical storm. It's clustered now, but I have a feeling this thing will really strengthen as long as Ivan keeps his distance.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]
08: 14/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
jth
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27706 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:28 PM

Speaking of Recon, when should we expect another report. I agree that it will not make cat 5, but it does look to be strengthening.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27707 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:29 PM

watching radar loops, he looks almost due north right now, I can't see much westernly component in the last 30 minutes....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
St. David
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 74
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: Frank P]
      #27708 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:32 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html


steering looks like its gone.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
B33R
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: Frank P]
      #27709 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:32 PM

Frank, i would recommend you clear out of there right away!!

Why chance it?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: Frank P]
      #27710 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 PM

Hey Frank,

Radar's weird like that. Look at the big picture. I know you have this loop linked, but you can see the general trend. Smoothing the track, it's about 350. Looks like a star thingy in the eye at the last frame:

SSD Visible

Bust open that Crown baby.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: B33R]
      #27711 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:35 PM

This sat loop only goes until 1745z, but I don't see ANY northerly movement...

Frank..GO!

Edit...looks like Steve beat me to it, and his loop goes to 1815...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: B33R]
      #27712 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 PM

my primary concern is storm surge, and winds out of the south.... as long as I'm assured it will be to the west of me I'm not going to get the worst of it... hopefully...

thanks


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: Frank P]
      #27713 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:38 PM

You would be in the worst possible spot Frank. Do you mean East?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: Frank P]
      #27714 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:44 PM

I know the view on radar is skewed this far out, but isn't this about where the NHC track starts the NNE turn? It could be just a wobble, but in the last few radar frames it does seem to be leaning to the right. But it might be a couple more hours before we can see a real trend.

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
local update [Re: FlaRebel]
      #27715 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:45 PM

Just had a tornado watch issued; looks like some very strong rainbands will be here shortly. Winds are now gusting to a good 30mph or so. Just now beginning to rain at my house. ALL Shelters in Mobile are now CLOSED officially per local TV reports. I'm not sure about electricity, but well before Frederic came on shore in '79 they turned the power off.

Right now my prayer, besides survival, is that Ivan does not get any stronger !!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: FlaRebel]
      #27716 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 PM

FlaReb, I sit corrected... you are exactly right EAST IS THE KEY for me...

Bil, I hope you are seening the same thing I'm seeing on radar, it more updated than the sat pixs by a good 20-30 minutes... I think this is kinda cutting in close on my part but I still have options available.. appreciate everyones concern greatly... would feel bad if I abandoned my neighbors...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Frank... [Re: Frank P]
      #27717 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:51 PM

don't know if this will be of any help regarding the surge...worth a look-see.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: local update [Re: mbfly]
      #27718 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:53 PM

MB that is a tornado warning...must be one in those very Red cells coming ashore in your county.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
docjoe
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: MikeC]
      #27719 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:54 PM

Sitting here in Santa Rosa county between milton and pace. moderate rain and gusts maybe up to 30 MPH. nothing big yet but obviously will change soon. channel 3 just reported that the navarre pier is collapsing. good luck to everyone and stay safe!!!

docjoe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: local update [Re: Justin in Miami]
      #27720 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:56 PM

noticed that while I was typing the last post. looks to be just off shore south of gulf shores or so, headed nw toward foley.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: Jeanne landfalls on Puerto Rico - Ivan Holding at Cat 4 [Re: jth]
      #27721 - Wed Sep 15 2004 02:57 PM

Recon is still out there, looks like they are in the SE quadrant now. The last vortex message was about an hour ago, might be a while before they send another one. .

Bill


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 23 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 48605

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center