Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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thanks Phil, but I'm 20 feet above sea level, even in the worse case scenario with a Cat 4 I would not see surge in my house.....
WIth a hit east of me and no southerly flow I will not see any surge greater than a max of 5-8 feet on the west side, if that, when the winds turn out of the due north they will blow the water out of the MS sound to ship island, you could walk to the barrier islands... actually you'd probably fly with a 135 mph wind at your back.... and you might have to take a boat to access the casinos because all the casios might end up on Ship Island, 12 miles south....
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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peeking at yahoo and the AP had a wire story with the following paragraph...
"No shelters were available in Baldwin County, Ala., said assistant emergency management director Roy Wulff. The county usually uses schools as shelters, but the wind expected from "far exceeds the winds those buildings were built to withstand," he said. "
That means any last minute evacs are going to have to go futher to get to safety... not good at all
Good luck people
Mark
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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low tide was 1-1:30 here. I would say the tides are running about 2-3 feet higher than normal right now..dock has about 6 inches before its covered
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Great site LI Phil, it's a shame they don't have more stations on the East coast (would've liked to have seen just how high they recorded surge during , I know we had at least 6 inches over the seawall in Palm Beach Shores).
Edited by leetdan (Wed Sep 15 2004 03:08 PM)
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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tornado here..heading north up 231
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Frank, my only concern is that you might be taking an unnessecary gamble. There is nothing to say that there is not a significant wobble in the last couple of hours towards you. By then, it would be too late because I would suspect that many bridges would be closed by high winds. Even taking a chance that the storm could intensify, a Cat 4 / low Cat 5 would do a good bit of physical damage. You probably do not have long until routes are closed if they are similar to coastal set ups here in Florida. Plus, trying to do it at night would be especially dangerous.
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Jim
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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my observations as of the moment... does not have much westerly component... if any, looks to be on the forecast track heading right at the MS/AS line... i expect to be on the extreme western edge of the large eye.... I can handle that.. won't be pretty over here, but Pascagoula, Mobile and eastward will be a whole lot worse... Keeping my fingers crossed... stil have several hours for options.... gang, I am taking this as serious as any hurricane I've ever experienced.. thanks for the great posts...
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eulogia
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 27
Loc: SW FL
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What kind of safe room do you have?
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Agnes (1972), No Name Storm (1993), various and sundry, Charley (2004), Wilma (2005,) et. al
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Kent
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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My niece is in Tallahasse and her employer is making her work today. She doesn't get off until 11:00pm. There are flood and tornado watches out for Leon County. How can they make her go out in this? She is 19 and a typical 19 year old driver. This worries me. is not even closing tommorow. Whats up with that?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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DPIA1
Note the pressure drop!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HCW
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
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Quote:
my observations as of the moment... does not have much westerly component... if any, looks to be on the forecast track heading right at the MS/AS line... i expect to be on the extreme western edge of the large eye.... I can handle that.. won't be pretty over here, but Pascagoula, Mobile and eastward will be a whole lot worse... Keeping my fingers crossed... stil have several hours for options.... gang, I am taking this as serious as any hurricane I've ever experienced.. thanks for the great posts...
No westward ?
Check this out
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_IVAN/anim8vis.html
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Over 4,000 members and now on a new server
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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it dissapated... frank the sat i see show it is pretty much on track just a little west.. also the eye looks a little bigger
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Can someone explain exactly what the implications of moving ashore faster than expected would be with regards to track? I just heard the commissioner for Mobile say that they were just informed by the that is moving faster than expected. Would this not cause him to come ashore further west?
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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Bioman
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 49
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42 foot wave heights on 42040 buoy
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Rasvar great advise, however, my options right now would not involve any bridges... and are all within 15 minutes max drive...
I will not evacuate after dark, if I have not left by dark, then I'm not leaving.... I still have several hours to monitor, and will do so... 88.5w is my key.... I'm at 89L...
radar still looking north....
Steve, holding off on the two half gallons of hurricane prep crown right now... I need to be fully mentally as sharp as I can.... I could get a couple wobbles to the NNE I might just open up one though...
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I think what Frank is saying is: "Don't try this at home" lol... good luck and I look forward to your stories afterward...oh yeah and make sure your "safe room" has internet access!
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Pressure down to 937 on latest recon. Hope this does not continue. Frank, I think you are right. looks to be due north...That said, you are crazy to chance that it won't wobble back left.
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I hope this one is broken
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=42013&meas=wspd&uom=E
heh
Mark
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Redbird
Unregistered
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Frank............listen to Phil.........we would hate to see anything happen to you.
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Heh. I saw that one. Kind of think the buoy would no longer be a buoy at that windspeed. Would probably be airborne. 
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Jim
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