Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Time for me to head to bed. Hope to wake up to find out about a bunch of fish spinners. Maybe by this time tomorrow night, Jeanne might seem a little clearer.
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Jim
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Well at least the models agree on for a change. A 180 degree turn over land is not unheard of, but rare.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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If Pasch doesnt improve his forcasting skills,,Im going to apply at the and personally tell him," I'M REPLACING YOU!!!"
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
During each of the local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX) each had 2 or 3 reporters each out in the field along the coast, in the wind, with debris flying by them, trees falling and water rising. They were all crazy. The fact that the 10 or 12 of them and their crews escaped injury is amazing. There was one shot of a woman reporter hanging on to a stop sign out in the middle of an intersection hanging on for her life, when a major band came through and the wind picked up unexepectedly, she fell to the gournd and hugged the base of the sign. I don't know how the cameraman didn't blow away. One little 6" piece of metal siding, a coconut or even a tree limb could have taken either of them out in a second. This was all live. I don't get it.
Bill
Saw that Bill. She was ridiculous. She then got hit by a leaf which by the next day was changed to a piece of roof. Network must have thought the leaf was too wimpy.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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What is keeping Jeanne together? I thought mountains and Islands were supposed to be discouraging and dismantling to storms. Jeanne has been huggin Hispanolia all day and she still looks like a viable storm. Are they seeding the atmosphere with the antithesis to dynagel? I think they may be Storm seeding to grow hurricanes!!!( just kidding but a part of me wonders, sitting here thinking about another weekend of hurricane tracking into Florida SE Coast. 
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM AND 35 KT FRAM SAB. A 16/1950Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS...WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40-KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY BEING UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM KARL
editor's note. Fram has NOT purchased SAB
Edited by danielw (Fri Sep 17 2004 03:12 AM)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I think we will have to watch the intensity on Jeanne. She has spent most of the last 24 hours crossing the entire length of Puerto Rico and half the length of the Dominican Republic and has hardly even weakened. What does that mean when she finally finds the water?
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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The fact that Jeanne's center has mostly stayed over water, or has not been away from water long. Plus there is just something about this storm that isn't giving up.
Bill
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mojorox
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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I was in an earthquake once whilst ice skating in a big tin rink in Japan years ago. Everyone ran out of the building and I landed on my a%% in the center of the rink and had to wait it out. I think I prefer the earthquake in that there is no anticipation and it is over quick. Though it is weird watching the floor move in waves...
I am so exhausted this season and have gone from dread to, "come on baby, do your worst" as I am more prepared than I ever have been after the past two. A kind of defiant mindset. Perhaps it is a coping mechanism...
I am glad Jason is ok. I was worried. I hope Rick is ok too. My parents lost part of their dock but the house is intact on the gulf in MS.
I saw Larry King tonight and one of the guests said that there had been previous hurricanes off the coast of LA in the distant past.
This surprised me.
Helen
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 16
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Our local meteorologist said that most likely Jeanne would make a Georgia/North Florida landfall. What do you guys think the chances of Jeanne getting up to South Carolina before making that western turn?
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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I saw that too. In a meager attempt to defend the woman though she admitted that she had been stupid. She is normally a sports reporter and this was her first time covering a hurricane.
I doubt she will do it again.
Unless she was the reporter that later stood outside of a hotel who's sliding glass doors were about to fly off. One floor above there was already a big hole where she said they just watched a mattress and other things come flying out. She just stood there...right below, waiting to catch it all on film.
If that was her then I humbly retract the first part of this post.
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Fletch
Weather Guru
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Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
I was in an earthquake once whilst ice skating in a big tin rink in Japan years ago. Everyone ran out of the building and I landed on my a%% in the center of the rink and had to wait it out. I think I prefer the earthquake in that there is no anticipation and it is over quick. Though it is weird watching the floor move in waves...
I am so exhausted this season and have gone from dread to, "come on baby, do your worst" as I am more prepared than I ever have been after the past two. A kind of defiant mindset. Perhaps it is a coping mechanism...
I am glad Jason is ok. I was worried. I hope Rick is ok too. My parents lost part of their dock but the house is intact on the gulf in MS.
I saw Larry King tonight and one of the guests said that there had been previous hurricanes off the coast of LA in the distant past.
This surprised me.
Helen
Helen
I may have to disagree with you. I've lived in S FL since 72 but I have also been through 2 small quakes in the Bay area. Earthquakes scare the S%^& out of me. You can't prepare, and they can strike any time. Canes usually occur only a few months out of the year, and you know when they are coming and most importantly, you can leave.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Take this ...
and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...
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Jason Kelley
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The weather reporters out in the field are ridiculous, honestly. It's not like by now the public hasn't seen a hurricane, doesn't know what they are like. Reminds me all too much of the movie "Day After Tomorrow" where the newsman buys it to the flying billboard sign from the tornado. The reporter that almost ate the palm tree in the head in Orlando is a classic example. Someone here on the boards said it landed 5 feet behind him. It didn't. The fronds actually smacked him in the head on the way down. If the trunk had landed, say, at 15 degrees to the base rather than 20 degrees, he quite likely would have been killed on [semi] live TV. Unconscienable.
Why do I keep getting this itchy feeling that the one storm we should next be watching isn't Jeanne, but future "L" storm...like we've noticed before, excepting Bonnie, it's been --- xxx --- xxx --- --- xxx --- xxx --- . With Karl forming and going out the sea (most likely), I can just see Jeanne recurving to the Atlantic to keep the pattern going, and get ready for "L"....
Would have normally just laughed it off as superstition, but in this year of weird storms, gotta go with it.
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Londovir
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erauwx
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Wow ... impressive video!!!
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BillD
User
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Loc: Miami
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Not blaming the reporter at all, a little later when they got back to her you could tell she was really shaken by the experience.. I blame the stations, they should not be asking their reporters to go out there and risk their lives like that. Earlier that day Jeb Bush in one of his public statements made a point of saying that having reporters out there in the worst of it was a bad idea (I'm paraphrasing, he used stronger language, if I remember right it included the word "stupid").
Bill
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Kent
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
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From the 11pm discussion of Jeanne
Look at the 72 hour mark seeing that Ft. Lauderdale is 26N 80w Can someone tell me how far away that really is?
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 69.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 70.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 73.7W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 74.9W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 76.9W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 79.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 85 KT
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Quote:
Take this ...
and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...
You are the man! We were so worried for you and your wife and of course, all your viewers. Thanks for keeping all those folks safe and informed.
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey Jason...
Didn't even look at your day yesterday...
It just shows you how much you mean (and are meant) to these boards to be posting today...
Thank GOD you are alive...I know she has bigger plans for you...
I'm think in 2-3 years, Jim Cantore will say, "We now go to our resident meterologist Jason Kelley for our tropical update".
If you'd even deign to work for them.
Who lost a TON of respect for them this season?
Yeah, I'm trying to insite the rabble, but I beileve it to be true?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
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Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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I just saw the 11pm forecast by Orlando Channel 9's Tom Terry. I think he's the best in the area. He is pretty much in agreement with the 's projected path of Jeanne at this point. And he showed all the models coming into agreement , more or less, keeping 's path offshore from Florida. He pointed out that even the 's track, which was the most western track, moved right and is more in agreement with the others now. 140 miles offshore of Melbourne on Monday with 100 mph winds. This guy is like our version of Jason Kelley down here. I trust him. He said lets just hope the models hold out so he acknowledges that nothing is written in stone at this point. The bottom line for me is I'm going to bed tonight believing, at this point, in the scenario that the has laid out so far. Tomorrow is another day and I'll wake up and deal with Jeanne again then amongst other things. I think if anyone has any questions about the direction of Jeanne at this point, then they ought to do the same. Good night everyone...its been a great discussion today...I usually don't get to stay on this long. Sleep tight cuz I will! 
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