mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
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Wow Jason! What great film and great work too!
You must be exhausted.
Helen
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BillD
User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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Jason,
Wow, incredible video, and good narration given the circumstances, I'm not sure I could get a coherent word out in a situation like that. We're all glad you're OK, and expect you are looking forward to some much needed rest.
Bill
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I am happy it was no worse that it was....I am about to lay down and sleep for the first time since I work up at 5 Wednesday morning....full recaps later, including digital pics of what happened here...
And by the way, Jenna isn't here yet...my wife didn't go into labor...
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Jason Kelley
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
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Thanks for the info. This hurricane just has me a little worried because my parents have gone out of town for 2 weeks and I'm here holding down the fort alone. The last thing I need is a hurricane.
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 296
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Jason, I am glad to hear you are ok, and I hope your wife is as well.
Just for kicks, I decided to look at what the upper air pattern was for Isabel. Jeanne is in a different location, but what made me look, is I remember a strong high at the surface that really enhanced our winds (in NJ). Another strong high is expected to be in the general area this time. The Vulcan in me thought, "If the surface high is in the same place, maybe the upper level pattern is similar". The placement of the Bermuda high is different, but in both cases, there was (this time, expected to be) a trough in the Plains states. The analog is far from perfect, but my point is, maybe we need to watch how and where the 588 dm high is located, and if it strengthens. Again, just for kicks. Of course, the obvious difference is that Jeanne will not be in the same area as Isabel. I am looking at this from a steering-current point of view.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
GFS 7 day 500 mb map (errors may exceed a continent or two)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/18/gfs_500168192_m.shtml
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Holy F---ing S--t. Just watched the JK vid...
Multiply that by 10 hours? Ummm...no thank you.
Sure you don't wanna anchor the local news up hrere?
Good god, Jason....BTW, how's your wife...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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richisurfs
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 104
Loc: Indialantic,Florida
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Jason...You're the man!!! What an awesome clip.I saved it to show my family in FWB because they lost power at 5pm yesterday. Go get some well deserved rest! Goodnight all..again.
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tpratch
Moderator
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
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Quote:
During each of the local stations (NBC, CBS, ABC and FOX) each had 2 or 3 reporters each out in the field along the coast, in the wind, with debris flying by them, trees falling and water rising. They were all crazy. The fact that the 10 or 12 of them and their crews escaped injury is amazing. There was one shot of a woman reporter hanging on to a stop sign out in the middle of an intersection hanging on for her life, when a major band came through and the wind picked up unexepectedly, she fell to the gournd and hugged the base of the sign. I don't know how the cameraman didn't blow away. One little 6" piece of metal siding, a coconut or even a tree limb could have taken either of them out in a second. This was all live. I don't get it.
Bill
My friend from Connecticut has a fresh view and his quote regarding Fox News' hurricane coverage was priceless.
"We're with fox news and we'll DIE to get you this story"
Yeah - who knows what the hell they were thinking, eh?
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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hang on kids!! jeanne has a bead drawn on the southeast coast. just as got cranking while was still busy with florida and points north, jeanne is already threatening to be coming in sometime near the middle of next week (tue/wed). add to the mix another named system in karl, and yeah, there's a hell of a long post on the way.
ivan:
curving right, with more model tracks now more set on a sweeping anticyclonic loop across the interior southeast. still a solid rain shield northeast of the center, that will probably persist for a couple more days.. with the surface system likely to persist at least to monday. days of flooding on the way for the piedmont, cumberland plateau, and southern appalachians.
jeanne: the inner core has remained remarkably intact as it grazes along near the north coast of the dominican republic. may in fact be a minimal hurricane based upon structure. as it slowly trudges over the islands, extreme rainfall is the main story.. when it leaves late tomorrow the focus should shift to intensification. the storm is currently small and has a quicker spin-up/spin-down time.. could become a good bit stronger than forecast over the weekend. it should broaden a good bit over the open ocean as well. i'm fairly on with the official track, though think it may terminally be to the left. not going to start specifying where i think the center will hit until it clears the island.. and starts hinting how much it will respond to the weakness. going to throw in an unpleasant caveat that joe bastardi has already made mention of.. this should be a solid 2 or higher when it hits the u.s.
karl:
away east, progged unanimously to recurve. as with jeanne, think the intensity is conservative.. easily a major in the next two days. this should finally be the one.. a major hurricane in 2004 that doesn't affect the u.s. at some point in its life cycle.
others:
wave/surge line east of the lesser antilles (52w or so) has a minimal chance of organization.. not much convergence to go on right now.. upper conditions not bad though.
northern end of this wave axis associating with an upper trough/surface convergence and vorticity region in the central atlantic. as this nearly stationary type feature in the upper levels reorients over the weekend there's a minor chance something tries to develop in a diffluent zone, or with some of the low level vorticity present. minor chance.
wave near 20w following karl.. globals like it, but proximity to karl doesn't favor it. will watch, but expect little.
gulf/caribbean.. little activity in the lower BOC and sw caribbean associated with /tropical wave action.. in the deadened state of the low level easterlies persistent features will have to be watched, but none appearing as so right now.
bottom line is that is still a huge flooding threat (tornadoes are nothing to joke about either).. jeanne is a potentially significant threat to ga/sc/east coast of fl... karl is an open atlantic system, and nothing else is on the table at this moment.
decent chance we get the other two systems bill gray called for prior to september's close, but think the late season may truncate a bit (mjo favorable here, but the deadened west pacific foretells of a quieter early october.. more than likely).
HF 0350z17september
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cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 120
Loc: Sebastian, FL
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Okay, somebody care to explain to me the steering forces that would cause turn back on itself?!?!? :?:
And what is a ?
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Lat/Lon: 27.8, -80.5
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
Edited by cjzydeco (Fri Sep 17 2004 12:01 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc:
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The field reporters get the ole adrenalin rush when the winds and rain pick up and put that in combination of the viewers who want to see the wind blow and are secretly hoping the reporter gets blown into the next county by the wind and well, you have the reason why it won't change.
My only question is where is Geraldo and why wasn't he out in the 130mph winds?
LOL
It does get a bit ridiculous. I even saw two different networks shooting from the same location.
You have to have the proverbial palm blowing in the backround or else ........
JASON !! Glad you're ok......hope you get some sleep and glad ur family is fine..........
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Terra, the different steering levels note the bounds on the flow pattern for a particular internsity threshold. So, when it says 400mb-850mb, it means that they are taking the average of the winds in the level of the atmosphere between 850mb (roughly 1500m above the surface) and 400mb (roughly 8000m above the surface). The same holds true for the different levels, just with different bounds.
Different levels are selected for various storm intensities because stronger storms tend to be deeper, meaning that their circulations extend higher up in the atmosphere. Thus, either a larger difference between the bounds (like 250-850) or overall higher (in the atmosphere) values of the bounds, such as 200-700, are better indicators for these stronger storms, more often steered by mid- and upper-level troughs and ridges. Conversely, weaker systems tend to be steered more by the low level flow, so regimes like the 700-850mb or 450-850mb layer that take in to account low and mid level flow are more useful.
Of course, as with any product, the values are a little arbitrary and not all storms will fit perfectly within one regime. And, the winds will change over time, so it is not an end-all tool for predicting storm motion. But, one of the 's favorite ways to depict storm motion after the fact -- and perhaps during the storm, though I'm not certain of this -- is to take a mean 1000mb-100mb wind as the steering flow. Essentially, you capture everything from the surface to the top of the troposphere (the region in which we live) with this. It is attempts to capture portions of this that have also been proven useful in tracking storms, such as the products you linked to (which I really like myself).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Folks...
Gonna pack it in for this evening (a collective YEAH is heard)
HF is now monitoring you...
Today was a lot of fun combined with a lot of sorrow...not sure they mix well but what the hey...now you know how I've decided to let this moderator status lie....
Everyone feel free to emote if they need...use the PM feature for truly personal accounts...
let god take care of the rest...she's got my cell phone number, why hasn't she called....
To all those who are still truly and reallly freaking out over this season or ...PM me...we'll square it away..
Cheers...
Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Earlier post asked about Javlin.... he's fine, came over my house late this morning... he had no damage....
I still have no power, 32 hours and counting.... about seven of us on the front beach are the only ones, transformer probably bad, and its on a pole in my back yard..... my neighbor owns an RV dealership and we just parked about a 50 footer in my front yard, using the generator to supply electricity to both houses.... so at least I now have some power for essentials...
I was very prepared for this storm, but the one thing I really learned is that I need to get a generator, and will buy one as soon as they become available.... you don't even need to get hurricane force winds and you still might be out of power for days....
anyone have a recommendation for a good generator (name brand and size) I could buy please send it to me via the message system...
thanks
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Jason -- wow. I imagine you all had a lot more wind and rain from the storm & feeder bands than we did here in Tallahassee, but those cells that kept coming in off of the water -- almost every single one had some rotation with it, it seemed, and there is now a swath of tornadoes across North Florida from Panama City to Tallahassee. I can only imagine what it is like to be on the air with one of these; it was bad enough over the early morning hours talking to 4 different people about the tornado threat here in Tallahassee.
Hope all is well on your end beyond that, though.
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Mooshie-SC
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 16
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What you need is the Binford Tools Megawatt XL9000 8 Cylinder 10,000 RPM 500 cubic cm. gasoline generator. 
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Kent -- that location is about 30 miles north and 180 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, all in an approximate sense. That places the center, as the crow flies, 182 or so miles from Ft. Lauderdale.
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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If the steering flow weakens and/or changes -- such as the trough currently sending to the NE lifts out, leaving the storm behind to slow down and a ridge to build in from the north to shunt it towards the west -- you can see that sort of pattern evolve.
Interesting to note that a few of the models want to interact the remnants of with Jeanne in 4-6 days. We'll see if that happens, sort of merging together or whatnot.
I think I'm going to take a break from the prediction business for awhile...these storms this year have proven one thing -- they're really, really tough to predict. Just one look at how Jeanne has fared over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola confirms that -- stronger storms have been ripped apart by those two islands.
TUTT is the acronym for tropical upper-tropospheric trough. In general, it stretches across the western tropical/subtropical Atlantic with a few upper-level low centers (TUTT cells) along its path. This map -- http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2img/fig215.jpg -- shows you the climatological position of the in July over the N. Atlantic to be somewhere south of Bermuda. The is a semi-permanent feature that tends to both enhance and deflate tropical activity, depending on its strength and location as well as other external influences on tropical cyclone development.
More information on the and upper-level troughs in the tropics in general can be found here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap2/se205.htm
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Mike and John have personal business to take care of this weekend, so site management is more of a stormcooper/LIphil/moi affair for the near future. ed is still in recovery mode from ...
anyhow, new thread, so send your comments over thataway.. don't want this one to grow to 20 pages or anything. thanks.
HF 0431z17september
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Turning in for the night here as well, thankfully with power. Came home to a nice surprise earlier in that the power was restored a full day before they expected it, which is always good. The ice in the freezer and fridge didn't even have time to melt, but I'm certainly glad I had the materials and losses were avoided. I can only hope and pray that everyone to the west made it out alright and that this is the last storm we'll have to deal with as a community this year. Unfortunately, Jeanne may have other designs on that, but this is just getting ridiculous...and we've only gone 6 weeks into the season.
Ivan certainly served up some humble pie on my end and will be a learning experience for all of the forecasters and models involved. Whether the models were too far right and needed to shift left early in its life or too far left and needed to shift right late in its life, the overall errors with this storm are going to be rather large...even in intensity. The did the best they could and proved once again why they are the experts, pinning down a large location that could be affected by the storm with enough time to get prepared as well as pinpointing a region that might come under the gun -- the Mobile/Pensacola area -- a couple of days in advance. They and all other forecasters will always be limited by the data we have available, whether that is in the form of models, observations, or something else entirely, but things are gradually improving. This storm humbled many a forecaster and proved how two competent, respected forecasters can come up with entirely different scenarios as to what will happen and have both come within a fraction of being right...yet both end up wrong.
Best of luck to everyone in the path of this beast, and take care all.
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