Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Well right now that seems like a likely landfall point, I think everyone someone should abbrevate this, keep an eye on this and don't turn your back on this storm.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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luki
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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no wonder she wrecked the place,ive heard some horor stories on what she did to my neighborhood,not sitting in too good a place here,about 10 miles from the coast but also in the middle of the St.Johns and Trout rivers if my memory sevres me were a cat 3 evac zone. hoping Jeanne dies out,gets a very doubtful push out to sea,or does no further intensifying.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it is interesting to note that since 1851, Dora was the only major hurricane to hit northeast Florida from the Atlantic, and the only hurricane to hit northeast Florida in an east to west direction
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luki
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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scary thought,i know i wont be turning my back.thinking maybe i should have kept my mouth shut to my sister,shes coming in from NJ tonight and i told her well u pushed away but looks like your bringing Jeanne in,i think i might have spoke too soon on that one
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dwlobo
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 21
Loc: Palmetto, FL
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Sure does look like it's stationary.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Looking at the continuous TV coverage coming out of Mobile this morning,Gulf Shores,Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola, the devastation of these areas really bring back memories of Camille...
even Camille didn't do that kind of damages to bridges.... someone posted earlier that they thought had a Cat 5 surge... the damage I've seen certainly supports that analogy... 130-140 mph winds do not cause that kind of damage I've seen on TV, that was from a tremendous surge... anyone know what the actual surge was??
It had to be at least 15-20 feet, and add the height of the waves on top, this must have been incredible and very close to the heights generated by Camille...
one difference between the two areas, our waves in the MS sound don't get nearly as high because the sound is so shallow, and we are protected by the barrier islands (Horn, Ship and Cat islands, quite beautiful I might add)... Gulf Shores, Pen, Orange Beach.... these areas ARE the barrier islands.... and have NO protection ..
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luki
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: palm beach county
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was not aware of that,guess all the hype about being way overdue for a hit up here have some real value to it
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Have to correct you on that. Dora was only a Cat 2 at landfall on the NE Florida coast[granted high Cat 2]. There has not been a "recorded" Cat 3 landfall in this area.
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Jim
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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I noticed that too Rabbit, seems the First Coast is the safest place in the state in terms of hurricanes... That area lies right in between the usual storm tracks, either west through the Straits or South Florida, or curving north to the Carolinas. Certainly can't count yourselves out though :-/
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[witty phrase here]
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darthaggie
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
One more question for you.... a lot of these people that have meteorologist after their name, but spend their time doing field reporting.... are they real meteorologists?
Well, I've heard that 's Stephanie Abrams graduated from 's meteorology department, and that Kristina Abernathy is an ex-USAF meteorologist. I'd guess, just from a marketing point-of-view, that most of 's on-camera people are meteorologists of some stripe.
As for your journey into meteorology, well, it's never too late. It depends, I guess, on how long ago you last saw really gnarly mathematics. Personally, I'd need to go back and take a refresher course(s) in calculus. And I might actually learn something about calculus!!!
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MrSpock
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
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Conventional wisdom a few days ago was to keep the storm stuck over the southern App. was the first to say it would get picked up. Now, the new ETA has the remnants of emerging off the Va./NC coast.......IF that were to happen, that could change things with Jeanne. Again, not saying it will, but it is an interesting output.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/images/eta_slp_036m.gif
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Did anyone see the East Pacific lately, that storm is recurving to Baja California. That trough must be something, most storms don't recurve like that, the models were sending it out to sea, except the it recurved it. Anyway this trough will play a big role in determining the track of Jeanne. If and only if Jeanne gets into the GOM then the panhandle would have to watch out, this could be a similiar storm to Betsy. If the storm doen't get into the GOM then it will get sucked up by that trough and cause another rain storm along the coast. Let's see how it pan's out but as soon as I see that ridge building over top, then it's hitting Florida.
Karl looks impressive, though it might not hit the United States because of that , it's clearly visible on sat imagery. Prob the first major cane not going to impact the USA, amazing. Anyway, the models are also predicting another tropical system to form; the son of Karl, Lisa. Is this parade ever going to stop, it's like were being assualted by the tropics!
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Article on CNN.Com about models http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/internet/09/16/hurricane.supercomputers.ap/index.html
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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11:00 5-day
Guess they don't think this is cutting across S FL!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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You probably already have it:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/guides/hurricane/galleries.shtml
The photo gallery is just incredible!!!
These poor folks got hammard
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MO stormspotter
Unregistered
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That is the most strange projeted track for a hurriane that I have ever seen?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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See attachment.
NHC and accuwx tracks are now somewhat similar, though accuwx is WAY faster with her.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
Loc:
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Quote:
That is the most strange projeted track for a hurriane that I have ever seen?
I'm beginning to chuckle at each new discussion by the as it relates to their forecast path.
I used to plot them out on a seperate map but I'm tired of changing them every six hours.
I will tell you this, You'll really have to convince me it will come into the Jacksonville, Fla area from the East.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Wanna bet it shifts? How many times did and shift... heck at one time the was leaning towards crossing over Florida thru the Punta Gorda area and up the east coast.... and had going up the east coast as well... yeah, it'll shift, I can guarantee it.... who wants to bet right now this is where Jeanne is going? any takers out there? I think not because the people who come here to this site are smart, and know the track record of the models... go look at the last tropical model runs... they are all over the place... the has to put out a 5 day... I would not put any stock in this one at the moment....
Jeanne will have to be monitored very closely as I don't think the models have a clue as of yet.... but I'll say this, I think Florida will get another one.... and if it does get into the GOM, the panhandle might be under the gun again.... or perhaps even a little more west of there.... still waaay to early and I'm just prematurely speculating at the moment...
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Quote:
Wanna bet it shifts? How many times did and shift... heck at one time the was leaning towards crossing over Florida thru the Punta Gorda area and up the east coast.... and had going up the east coast as well... yeah, it'll shift, I can guarantee it.... who wants to bet right now this is where Jeanne is going? any takers out there? I think not because the people who come here to this site are smart, and know the track record of the models... go look at the last tropical model runs... they are all over the place... the has to put out a 5 day... I would not put any stock in this one at the moment....
Jeanne will have to be monitored very closely as I don't think the models have a clue as of yet.... but I'll say this, I think Florida will get another one.... and if it does get into the GOM, the panhandle might be under the gun again.... or perhaps even a little more west of there.... still waaay to early and I'm just prematurely speculating at the moment...
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
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