AugustaDawg
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 3
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First post here from a newbie. I have been reading this forum for several weeks and have really been been impressed with the quality of the content.
With apologies to all, my first post is a bit personal. I am supposed to take my family to Disney World tomorrow for eight days. I haven't been concerned with Jeanne until this morning, but now I am.
What is the educated opinion of those here on whether or not to make the trip? I believe that this site is the most likely on the web to give me an expert opinion.
Thanks to all in advance.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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As I see it Jx would be within the dreaded cone. That means ' Jx'ville is not out of the woods.'
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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ROB IN PA
Unregistered
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Frank if im right last year when isabell came in she was cat 1 but because she was cat 5 and 4 for so long she brought surge of cat 4. This was big problem in baltimore where the water went 2 blocks into inner harbour and piled all the boats up. Never really thought about surge staying up when storm weakens.
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AgentB
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 188
Loc: Winter Park, FL
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I'm still not convinced that this storm will make it out of Hispaniola in one piece. It hasn't gotten any better looking since I first checked it this AM. In fact I see where the center of circulation should be, and all the convection that was surrounding the eye seems to be blowing back towards the west. Jeanne is definitely taking a beating over the mountains there, and this will affect her forecasted path. That is, if she even stays together.
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Check the Surf
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Isabel made landfall as a CAT II, but dropped to a I fairly soon thereafter:
Isabel
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Rob, good point, that's what I was thinking, that once a storm reaches say a strong Cat 4 or 5 rating, the momentium of the system does not let the surge wind down as fast as the wind does... I always assumed the surge will be equal to the wind speed, and proved this NOT to be the case... something I'll consider regarding my evacuation plans for the next one that comes my way...
AugustDawn.... Regardling Watl Disney World.... I cancelled my trip which was scheduled for next Friday, only because I was concerned of the impact from ... seeing the devistation along the I-10 corridor in the panhandle I'm glad I did, will reschedule for early next year... however, if one can get to WDW without using I-10, I see no reason why you shouldn't go... hmmmm, except for Jeanne perhaps....
Storm chaser..... nice guesscast.... I might be leaning a little more to the south at the moment, still to early for me to call yet....
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kelcot
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
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Storm, what part of PCB are you in?
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Kelly
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Looking at the continuous TV coverage coming out of Mobile this morning,Gulf Shores,Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola, the devastation of these areas really bring back memories of Camille...
even Camille didn't do that kind of damages to bridges.... someone posted earlier that they thought had a Cat 5 surge... the damage I've seen certainly supports that analogy... 130-140 mph winds do not cause that kind of damage I've seen on TV, that was from a tremendous surge... anyone know what the actual surge was??
Actually, Camille did knock out a modern bridge over the back bay of Biloxi. The center span at the highest point on the bridge, a modern concrete bridge, was lifted out of position, rotated about 45 degrees and set back down into the opening. A pedestrian might have been able to climb carefully onto the resultant skewed section but it was so precarious that if he strayed from the center of balance, both he and the center span would have gone down into the water. It was considerable time before that bridge, the only one on US-90 across the back bay was repaired. The old, rickety wooden bridge that had been decommissioned a few years earlier, survived as it was completely covered by storm surge and covered during the highest wind and wave action....unfortunately, they had removed the center section when the new bridge was built and the two ends left in place as 'fishing piers'.
The damage very much reminds me of CAT-V storm surge and wave damage like that of Camille. probably was still carrying water and waves from when shortly before he had been CAT-V for quite some time. That much energy doesn't dissapate quickly even if the winds died down some before landfall. Energy stored in the greater mass of water won't change as fast as in the lower density mass of air.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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AdmittedHacker
Unregistered
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AgentB. I agree with you. Organized circulation has all but ceased, and outflows are radial rather than rotational now. It appears to be struggling to maintain it's integrity...
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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NHC is way too agressive with Jeanne right now on her wind speed. I dont see anything more the 50mph and that should be more realistic. Quickpast Sat and limited surface obs dont show more then 44mph.For her to survive she must now start that nw turn over the next 2-3 hours cause by 6 hours she will lose her w wind.
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
Why are you picking on the Canaveral National Seashore and New Smyrna Beach?
Sure, that would leave me on the "good" side, but still too close.
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Phil,
I hope you won't mind my enclosed repost to Jason Kelly...I just got back online and didn't really realize the last thread had closed but I would like Jason to know he's appreciated....
Repost:
Quote:
Take this ...
and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...
Jason,
Living in Orlando as I do, I have never seen you 'in action' on TV, but I have read your posts and HIGHLY respect your opinion. I'm sorry that you and your neighbors had to endure and its effects and I am truly pleased to see that you personally, and I hope all of your family and neighbors came through this relatively intact and uninjured. Having just gone through two similar experiences here (magnified by living in a trailer) and having to evacuate twice and prepare for a third (and possibly a fourth), we share common experiences that will bind us even closer together in the future. I give thanks that you are OK and when you rest up and recover from the trauma, that you will stop by this forum often and continue to contribute your knowledge and opinions.
I am sure that the other members of this site and many of its' visitors will feel much the same as I do when I say: Thanks and we're grateful you were spared to remain our friend.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I see Frank P on so I know he is OK.... Hope Droop & A1T and everyone else are OK also. I will keep this short... Panama City's big deal were the tornados. I will also add that anyone who could watch or listen to Jason K, you probably have a new level of respect for him... I do. I was here on the PC when JK caught the first tornado on the ground with the tower cam ( tv on beside me), I did my spotter duty and clicked my report to Tally, then JK advises of another tornado looking at Panama City. I got my wife to the safe room then I grabbed the camera. I have seen a few tornados and a number of canes but this was a little scary for me. From there on we had several people loose their lives during this event. In the end we became a "mini shelter", we dished out what we had and I cooked on the grill for everyone.... anyway we did pretty good! Points west got pounded hard. One of my family is the police chief of Gulf Shores, Al.... not the best place to be in a Cat 4. Well, looks to be a couple more out there 
Coop
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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storm chaser
Unregistered
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Quote:
Quote:
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
Why are you picking on the Canaveral National Seashore and New Smyrna Beach?
Not picking, just my guess. I do not wishcast, but I like to stay alert. I am still learning about the high pressures and so forth with these last storms, so don't count my guess, still learning.
Sure, that would leave me on the "good" side, but still too close.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Jeanne is dying over the DR...will she make it across? That is the question at hand. We are all talking about the various model solutions 4-5 days out...and she has not made it across the Island of Hurricane Death.
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BeachBum
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Loc: The Space Coast
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Quote:
I am supposed to take my family to Disney World tomorrow for eight days. I haven't been concerned with Jeanne until this morning, but now I am.
What is the educated opinion of those here on whether or not to make the trip?
I believe your greatest risk would be spending a day indoors.
Your schedule should bypass any problems with flight plans.
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From Brevard's Barrier Island
28°08'56"N; 80°35'11"W
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darthaggie
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 5
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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Quote:
Quickpast Sat and limited surface obs dont show more then 44mph.
Hmmm? did you read the 11AM EDT 17 Sep 2004 discussion?
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS RAIN-FLAGGED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT.
Now, granted, they're rain-flagged, but still...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I agree with you but would like to add this point... Camille did not cause any section of the bridge over Biloxi Bay to totally collapse, like what occurred from ... I only lived about a mile from this bridge at the time so I saw it first hand... Camille rearranged about a quarter mile of the segments of the BIloxi Bridge on the Biloxi side of the bridge... but NONE of the sections were totally distroyed or missing like in Florida, maybe this bridge was built better than the Florida one, it certainly was newer at the time.. ... yeah, it took a long time to repair but I think they just realigned the bridge segments, they did not have to rebuild it, like they will have to do in Florida... wind does not do that type of damage... that's storm surge... and it was pretty bad with ...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I agree Justin... she still looks very ragged on the vis loops and quite disorganized... she might not survive her island visit.... hard for me to discern any movement at the moment either...
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MO Stormspotter
Unregistered
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If she redevelops, and that is a big if. My guess is that Jeanne is gonna go south and visit the keys before hitting the northren gulf coast.
I think the models are a bit confused right now.
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