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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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StormHound
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 187
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Karl [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #29390 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:45 PM

Quote:

Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?



Yeah, I think he should have started his turn by now. I'm not too worried yet, but if he's still moving west 24 hours from now, it'll be time to stock up on more Ply-Lox.

--------------------
Storm Hound
Computer Geek


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rd522525
Unregistered




Re: Karl [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #29391 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:46 PM

Isnt it suppose to move west for awhile then start heading ne?

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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Frank P [Re: Frank P]
      #29393 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:49 PM

I'm waiting for the next statement from the NWS here in Houston to see if it has been upgraded to a warning...lol.

I still haven't figured out what they meant to say on that.


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: notes from Norcross on past friday in quotes [Re: LoisCane]
      #29394 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:51 PM

Lois I agree with you 100%

WHen Francis was coming I only watched Brian.


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
Re: Bobbi.... here is where the Bear Watch got started [Re: Frank P]
      #29395 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:52 PM

Here's the latest AFD from Houston/Galveston.... the bear watches have not yet verified... ...and "Ivan" is now an "upper level system".

What a nutty day...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 PM CDT SUN SEP 19 2004

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIRMASS HAS FILTERED INTO ALL BUT FAR SW ZONES THIS EVENING.
ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS OVERNIGHT
THANKS TO THE DRIER AIRMASS.

CHANGE TO LOW HUMIDITIES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
RETURN LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY...SO
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOW POPS TO THE GRIDS.
COMBINATION OF WEAKENING UPPER HIGH AND MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE
EAST WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATTER PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. 35/43



Allison


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Frank P [Re: SoonerShawn]
      #29396 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:54 PM

my last post on the Bear Watch before Phil gives me the ax... I have figured out the Bear Watch and it can mean only one of two things...

1. The Bears will watch us... or
2. We will watch the Bears..

there can be no other meanings...

sure glad this guy is not writing up the discussions for the NHC..... heck, we could have have several hundred miles of coast under this here Bear Watch...


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Bobbi.... here is where the Bear Watch got started [Re: Allison]
      #29397 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:57 PM

allison, the bear watch statement was from the one prior to this updated one, and was for the afternoon discussion and not the evening one... I also saw the same AFD posted on Storm2K and they were just as confused as I was... I also saw the statement after I connected to the link by Shawn... so I can verify that it was written, we just don't know what they meant by it,.... maybe they were trying to say that the system bares watching, and tried to be alittle cute... who knows

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Frank P [Re: Frank P]
      #29398 - Sun Sep 19 2004 09:59 PM

Chicago Bears, has to be a football reference

right?
hey vinnie and dallas won

maybe was to see if everyone was reading over the weekend?

i dont care what you can Ivan's remnants ..ghosts.. its moisture eating into what is supposed to be an area of developing high pressure to jeanne's west

thats all i care about
that and someone is going to get soaked later tonight along the central florida coastline and maybe further south

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Allison
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 134
Loc: Laredo, Texas
It was a slight jab at forecasting... [Re: Frank P]
      #29399 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:07 PM

Quote:

I also saw the statement after I connected to the link by Shawn... so I can verify that it was written, we just don't know what they meant by it




Yeah, I know... I saw it earlier today too... I suppose sarcasm doesn't always translate on-line... even with a

Allison


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Allison.... my bad [Re: Allison]
      #29400 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:12 PM

I thought you read the post and thought I was making it all up.... it sure sounds like something that someone would make it....

sorry for any misunderstanding.... now I catch your sarcarsm, and perhaps theirs too...

have a nice evening everyone.... time for me to hang it up for tonight... Jeanne is not going to bother anyone anytime soon, if ever...


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Karl [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #29401 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:12 PM

Quote:

Anyone else notice how Karl is still moving West?




In a normal year, we would just expect the turn at anytime. In a year like this,I think we are all willing the turn too soon and get concerned when we don't see it yet. It should start in 24-36 hours. But I'm not holding my breath this year.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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AdvAutoBob
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength [Re: LoisCane]
      #29402 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:15 PM

Quote:

1... dont think shes going north anymore. Not sure if she stopped or is looping here at this spot or moving a drop west, wnw, nw... but not too north. Last frames on loop are either eye oh im sorry... center is circulating on itself and looks like movement or is movement. maybe just a trend but gee not trending ne

2.. strength has to be higher than has been given, look at the presentation of the storm and what seems to be a rapidly developing CDO

3.. can see Ivan's ghost moving w to sw across the state.. read melbourne wxr statement.. it reads like all the outlaw forecasters have been saying

4... think that everyone has understimated this girl from the get go

and.... now is not a good time to be in denial or to be a wishcaster

believe it was supposed to take a few days to look this good.

bobbi




stupid newbie question here... I'm familiar with quite a few of the terms used, and understand pretty wel for a layman, but what is CDO? I know it refers to the center of circulation, but what do the letters stand for?

--------------------
"Chance favors the prepared mind"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength [Re: AdvAutoBob]
      #29403 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:19 PM

CDO=Central Dense Overcast...you can find a list of all acronyms (or most anyway) by clicking on the "General Info" link to your left under CONTENT.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Ghost of Ivan [Re: LI Phil]
      #29404 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:24 PM

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF Ivan...IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

Hey Phil, we 10 run ruled those Dead Sox again.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: What's so good about accuwx pro? [Re: LI Phil]
      #29405 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:28 PM

I don't agree. When Accuwhatever went to pay per view, I signed up for the trial. Yes, they had some neat graphics, but it was just that, neat graphics. I thinik JB is a loud mouthed egotistical ???. I'm not saying he doesn't have the wx background to be able to come up with some reasonable, and sometimes plausible, forecasts, but he is mostly wrong. Not that the NHC is always right, but I just do not like the idea that some private company is trying to take away their authority, and JB is right in the middle of it with his bigger than life ego.

Bill



Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Sep 19 2004 10:35 PM)


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: What's so good about accuwx pro? [Re: BillD]
      #29406 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:29 PM

Quote:

I don't agree. When Accuwhatever went to pay per view, I signed up for the trial. Yes, they had some neat graphics, but it was just that, neat graphics. I thinik JB is a loud mouthed egotistical ???. I'm not saying he doesn't have the wx background to be able to come up with some reasonable, and sometimes plausible, forecasts, but he is mostly wrong. Not that the NHC is always right, but I just do not like the idea that some private company is trying to take away their authority, and JB is right in the middle of it with his bigger than life ego.

Bill





Amen Bill

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Sep 19 2004 10:36 PM)


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Kent
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 106
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale
Re: Ghost of Ivan [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29407 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:31 PM

WXRITCHIE my moms in Vero..
can you elaborate on this?

Is this the Ivan left over?

Vero just got their power back from Francis...Did you see what happened to all their power lines?
hope this is not a windy storm your talking about!


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Ghost of Ivan [Re: Kent]
      #29408 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:40 PM

Many of the buoys off the East Central and North Florida coastline have sustained winds of 27-29 knots and gusts of 33-35 knots currently. On land, I also found gusts to 32 mph at St. Augustine. Beware of the ghost. It is almost Halloween.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Fletch
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: question on jeanne's current movement and strength [Re: LI Phil]
      #29409 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:43 PM

11pm Jeanne Disc

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2004
a NOAA hurricane hunter found 60 kt flight-level winds at 925 mb about 25 N mi from the center in both the northeastern and southeastern quadrants...along with a central pressure of 994 mb. Surface winds from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer on the aircraft were near 50 kt. The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt. While convective banding has increased and moved closer to the center since yesterday...the storm is still not that well organized as reflected in satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt. Cirrus outflow is poor in the southern quadrant and fair to good elsewhere.

The initial motion is 010/7...although the motion during the NOAA flight was closer to 030/7. Jeanne is currently between a deep layer ridge to the east and an upper-level trough/cold front to the northwest. Track guidance agrees this pattern should gradually turn Jeanne northeastward through 36 hr. Serious model divergence then arises. The GFS and guidance based on it...including the GFDL...March Jeanne steadily toward the east or east-northeast south of a strong deep-layer trough through 120 hr...with the GFS showing Jeanne follow Karl northeastward to higher latitudes. On the other hand...the UKMET and NOGAPS turn Jeanne southeastward and southward through about 96 hr as Karl passes to the east and a deep-layer ridge builds to the northwest...then move it northwest as the ridge weakens. At the moment...it cannot be determined which of these two options will verify. Therefore...the official forecast track splits the difference between the two extremes and call for a slow eastward drift after 36 hr. This continues to be a low confidence forecast.

The intensity forecast remains problematic. For now...the upper- level winds are favorable and the broad circulation should gradually consolidate. After 24-36 hr...the GFS and the NOGAPS indicate significant upper-level westerlies impacting Jeanne. Despite showing more than 20 kt of shear...the SHIPS model calls for strengthening during this period as does the GFDL. Another complication is that the cold front may interact with Jeanne in about 36 hr. The intensity forecast calls for strengthening to 70 kt by 48 hr...which is less than the 78 kt from ships or the 86 kt from the GFDL. After 48 hr...the environment will likely become hostile enough to stop intensification and cause slight weakening.

--------------------
Irwin M. Fletcher


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bobbi
Unregistered




i have a problem [Re: Fletch]
      #29410 - Sun Sep 19 2004 10:52 PM

with any forecast that says in the forecast that it has low confidence in itself

take two aspirin, two hours of therapy and get back to me when there is more confidence in the forecast

and twisters could develop, albeit small ones probably from an unstable environment... bad storm history these remnants have

re: wired marvin lewis... can we change coaches?


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