DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Fri
Posts: 70
Loc: Palm Bay
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Rick
Good to see you back, we have been watching to see you log back on with news. Sure glad you and your boat are fine!
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Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
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MO STORMSPOTTER
Unregistered
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Quote:
Been looking over things just west of Florida this morning and it appears is making an attempt at a comeback. Looks like it is making an attempt at a LLC at around 25.72N 83.88W. Convection is also starting to crank up a bit. So...any thoughts on TD in 24 hours or so?
*note: I am as amature as they come and I'm just enjoying a moment of looking at something else while we have 3 real storms to watch.
Is the potential LLC on the east or west side of Florida right now?
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it is west of Florida
It is entirely possible that by Thursday we could have five named storms in the Jeanne, Karl, Lisa; the remnamts of have about a 40% chance of developing, and the wave east of Lisa has a 70% chance of developing
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Since I know nothing about weather watching or storm predicting or trofs and ridges I'm fascinated by all this. Living in central FL has made me almost dependent on this site. Tell me if I got this straight:
This season is insane, virtually anything goes and I wont know if I need to "hunker down" until about 1 day before the storm and even then it could jump around us and we not even see rain? I know hurricanes aren't 100% predictable, but it seems like there is even less ability to figure them out this year than normal...I just wish I understood it all better so I could enjoy the thrill and challenge of it all...very interesting! Thank you all!
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Someone mentioned a possible Storm in the Med. Sea. Any further information on it?
Thanks!
Mark
Falcons 2 - 0, 4 - 1 with Vick, 4 - 10 without Vick.
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leetdan
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
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Looking at the visible loop, it looks to me that there's some circulation now off the SW FL coast. At the same time, it looks like the wave behind Lisa has some spin too. Wonder which one will get named first...
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[witty phrase here]
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Yea, certainly west of Florida basically about 100 miles due west of Naples. That wave you speak of east of Lisa has t-numbers of 1.5. Has some nice cold cloud tops - just looks like it needs to get its act together just a bit more. Anymore it seems like anything that comes off Africa just automatically becomes a storm..
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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It should be renamed...this is not the same vortex but is some of the energy, as I understand it...could be wrong though
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doug
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I was looking at the Sat's from the Med and it looks like something tried to spin up but didn't have time before it ran into Greece. At this rate we should have our first cyclone in the artic ocean soon. What would we call them? Frigidcanes? Icecones maybe?
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Radar confirms that loction...but I doubt it is closed low more like a wave open on the southeast,
the system behind Lisa was "tumbling " when it came off the coast, and its large!
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doug
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MO STORMSPOTTER
Unregistered
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what ever it is the remenants are definity spinning..
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml
I wonder if this will become Matthew.
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Ormond Suzie
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sun
Posts: 28
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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"It also would not be a completely new system. I think ignoring in the name would be a mistake. Why not 2 or ov/Ivanova? "
Ivanovich means "son of " - so that would be appropriate. LOL. I believe I understand from earlier discussions of this question, though, that it would get a new name.
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I agree - the isn't closed circulation yet...but it sure is trying. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. Nice that it is happening where we can watch with radar.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> I wonder if this will become Matthew?
There's a name that will bring back some bad board memories.
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rickonboat: Great News (for you)! A number of posters were quite worried you hadn't checked back in.
Had to go to a meeting all morning, just getting in now. Wow, we have three named storms presently, with a strong chance to have three hurricanes by tomorrow! We could also have Matthew & Nicole by the next couple of days. Un-be-friggin-lievable!
At least it looks like the models have come into agreement with Jeanne...GFS...hmmmmm...
Interesting thought by scottsvb on Lisa. I think it's a little too early to write her off, especially this season. She's such a small storm, she may just be able to make it across the pond. System behind her looks real promising now.
Didn't read JB today, but since it's free, I won't have to post his thoughts...that's my next stop.
Gotta delve into the tropics in a little while...amazing how much one misses this site when it goes down. Thanks MIKE for everything you do!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Katie
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Anyone know the possibility of Lisa taking a similar path to ? The forecasters keep commenting on how far south she is as was . I was just curious if I need to keep a watchful eye on her or if she will get swept away with Karl.
Also, to the person who asked about the "one day rule" of hunker down - after going through Bonnie, , Francis and outter bands of - if I am in a cone - I will be hunkered down for good! No chance in heck I won't be prepared for any other hurricane after ! Like with , we waited till it was past our area and still heading North before we took a sigh of relief.
Also, I read that they think we will be in this pattern for hits for approximately 10-40 years! Is this really possible and where is our normal protection? Just curious.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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I think it should be renamed if it desreves storm status just because of the ramifications of using "Ivan" now one of the classic modern storms.
Besides what went over Florida was hardly a storm and not even a TD level if it was a closed low which I doubt as stated earlier.
I guess if the can somehow track the original vortex from landfall to the Florida East coast yesterday, then perhaps it could be the Resusciitated... but a new name would be my recommendation if that comes to pass.
Also Can Lisa survive???Right now it looks ragged...being slapped around by big brother Karl and seems to be nearly out run by the large system behind it...they can't be more that 250-300 miles apart and it looks as if the gap is closing?
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doug
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
I just wish I understood it all better so I could enjoy the thrill and challenge of it all...very interesting! Thank you all!
First, welcome aboard.
I think that *everyone*, from the experts at to the pros like Jason K to the 'learned' that visit this forum so oten, certainly me, all feel the same "I wish I understood it all better". Every storm has its' challanges and thrills, but this year has been both a little too challanging and way too 'thirlling' for most of us. At least, back in '59 with Camille, I *ONLY* had to worry about her, not , and her wayword offspring, the terrible. ...and to have a bastard step-son of devellop and possibly threaten us again is almost intollerable. I have had more rain from this 'bastard' wannabe storm in the last day and a half than I have had since came by, total and the winds here in Orlando are 'fresh' to say the least. And that is just a 'renant'.
So, yes, we would all like to know and understand more....hang in there
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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10-40 years of a pattern...lets hope not...today a friend of mine and I are already lamenting next years homeowners insurance changes...if we even get renewed...and we did not have any damage, yet!...After Andrew the casualty insurance industry went through huge changes in assessing risk, many companies quit writing in Florida and the deductible patterns have increased each year. Look for 15k as an average of deductible next year (just a gut opinion).
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doug
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
I think it should be renamed if it desreves storm status just because of the ramifications of using "Ivan" now one of the classic modern storms.
Besides what went over Florida was hardly a storm and not even a TD level if it was a closed low which I doubt as stated earlier.
I guess if the can somehow track the original vortex from landfall to the Florida East coast yesterday, then perhaps it could be the Resusciitated... but a new name would be my recommendation if that comes to pass.
Also Can Lisa survive???Right now it looks ragged...being slapped around by big brother Karl and seems to be nearly out run by the large system behind it...they can't be more that 250-300 miles apart and it looks as if the gap is closing?
Doug, I agree with you on both points. "IF" something should become of the circulation off Naples it should not be named .
Also, I think Lisa is going to have a hard time keeping it together. We shall see.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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Fletch
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 121
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Quote:
10-40 years of a pattern...lets hope not...today a friend of mine and I are already lamenting next years homeowners insurance changes...if we even get renewed...and we did not have any damage, yet!...After Andrew the casualty insurance industry went through huge changes in assessing risk, many companies quit writing in Florida and the deductible patterns have increased each year. Look for 15k as an average of deductible next year (just a gut opinion).
If we are lucky they will only go up that high. Pre-Andrew I was at 560/year. 11 years later I'm paying 3400/yr not counting flood. Add on a 5% ded on top of that and its sick. I need 25-30k damage before I even think about calling in a claim.
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Irwin M. Fletcher
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