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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Keith234]
      #29538 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:12 PM

Quote:

Most models have been trending further north, even the GFDL. The UKMET and the NOGAPS have had it consitently landfalling in the Outer Banks area. I saw that article in the newspaper too, and I agree with LI phil; I only want a hurricane if it would was going to hit Florida. Maybe this could be another LI hurricane, I'm optimistic and I have to weigh that in comparison to some other things. If the ridge breaks down and propgates westward, then I think we're spared but if doesn't proprogate at all, and erodes then were in for a rude awakening. Once the possible scenario comes into play, all us LIers will be seeing a media hype beyond belief!


I am aware of the significance of this date with regard to hurricanes in the north east. With that said, all I can say is that I hope and pray that NO ONE is hit by another storm this year...not even to prevent it from hitting Floriday again would I wish it somewhere else.

I've lived throug many major storms including Camille and recent experience with Charliey and Frances and was worried sick about Ivan armed with my knowledge of how my mobile home would likely withstand even a weakened Ivan.

I often frequent other boards, come back here because I think it is the best of the pack, but found a post that really hit home: I'd like to share it with you.



September 15, 2004
Dear Family and Friends,
I am sure you are all anxious to hear about our experiences
concerning
Hurricane Ivan which destroyed Grand Cayman Island. It was a
nightmare,
an
unbelievable time. No one was prepared for the viciousness of Ivan,
even
all the Caribbean people who go through these often. This was the
worst
recorded hurricane ever to hit the Cayman Islands, # 5 in severity
with
200
mi/hr winds traveling at 8 mi/hr. (hurricanes are usually 24 mi/hr).
As our building was hurricane safe and off the ocean, Norm and I
decided
to
stay in our condo. All the windows were boarded over with large
sheets
of
plywood. We prepared ourselves with drinking water, snacks,
flashlights,
plenty of batteries and candles and settled down for the night. This
was
Sat. Sept 11. (Ironic)
The winds started to really pick up around midnight and proceeded in
intensity throughout the night. Around 5AM we were awakened by the
sound of
water. We realized water was poring in from our boarded up windows
and
within 30 minutes were up to our knees in water. We started putting
our
belongings that were on lower shelves up on counters and our
dressers,
etc.
We lit our candles and settled down to watch the storm, radio on to
listen
to any updates on the storm.
By 7 AM the water was up to midthigh and we had lost all radio
contact.
Norm and I were now sitting on our kitchen counters to keep dry.
Our
furniture was floating around by this time. The storm was viciously
howling
outside and we watched as the palm tree fronds were being blown off
the
trees one by one. At 8AM we watched our grape tree go down along
with
all
the other trees in our front yard. The water continued to rise. At
10AM
we
noticed our door start to bow inward with the rise of water outside.
Before
we realized what was happening the front door burst in with a surge
of
water
(6foot wave). Norm and I made a dash for the guest bedroom and
climbed
upon
the bed that was now floating. We had just made it onto the bed
when we
noticed the ceiling starting to shake and realized it was
collapsing.
We
made it to the guest bathroom, sitting on an end table we had place
on
the
bathroom sink. There we sat and waited for 5 hours as we watched the
water
continue to rise. When standing, the water was mid chest level. I
was
wearing a life-jacket, as we knew if it raised much more we would
have
to
try and swim out to reach the upper condo. After about 2 hours the
end
table we were sitting on collapsed (particle board does not hold up
well
submerged for 2 hours in brown sewage/seawater) sending us into the
water.
We found 2 Rubbermaid containers floating and were able to get those
up
on
the sink to sit on to wait out the rest of the hurricane. One of the
things
they tell you is not to leave your dwelling under any circumstances,
you
are
safer to stay in side your home rather than try and get out as then
you
are
exposed openly to the elements. I should mention when the surge
burst
through the door it swept everything that we had stored on the
counters
and
dresser tops off into the fast flowing water out the front door. We
lost
everything, including our candles, flashlights and drinking water.
Our
fridge, stove, washer and dryer were floating. The water started to
subside
around 5PM and we were able to move back to the kitchen counter,
though
the
ceiling was partially down. At around 7PM the winds started to
subside,
where we felt safe enough to venture to higher ground though the
winds
were
still pretty strong and the water was at waist level. We made it to
the
condo above and behind us and they were wonderful neighbours. We
just
knew
them to say hi but they brought us in, clothed us, fed us and gave
us a
bed.
We have been living with them since and they have made us feel
welcome.
We will stay with them until we find further arrangements.
The next morning we woke up to calm weather. We ventured down to our
condo
to assess the damage and almost cried. We had lost everything, our
clothes,
shoes, appliances, everything. We were able to save our laptop, a
few
pictures, jewelry and important papers, but other than that all we
had
were
the clothes on our back, which weren't even ours. We even found
someone
else's chair in our living room, books that weren't ours, etc. The
place
looked like a bomb had struck. Everyone was walking around in
shock.
Everyone's place on the ground level looked like ours or worse.
The house behind us was no more, gone into the ocean. We walked to
Grand
Harbour, where Norm works and people were walking around
devastated. It
is
hard to believe but we fared better than a lot of other places. The
condos
all along the ocean were gone. We now have an ocean view. We lost
both
of
our cars and I had no way to get into work, though I was to report
in
immediately after the hurricane. No one was prepared for this (not
even
the
Caymanians), they had never experienced a hurricane of such
intensity.
It
was actually the water surge that raised the ocean 20 feet and sent a
50foot
wave over the island. Anyone who has been here knows how flat this
island
is, so can imagine how much damage a wave like that would cause.
Seven
mile
beach is no longer part of Cayman. Condo complexes were swept into
the
sea.
We don't know the number of fatalities but there are numerous
people
missing. Graveyards in Cayman are usually along the ocean and many
of
those
were destroyed, so bodies, already dead were floating in the sea.
It is
a
site no one would believe without seeing it for one self.
We are now in a state of emergency. As most countries, the looting
started
the next day and the Camanian government has put marshall law into
effect.
There is a 6PM curfew and the police have been advised to shoot to
kill
all
looters. Two Jamaicans were shot and killed this morning for
looting.
There is no electricity and running water on the island, oh for a
shower!
Today is the first day we have had internet and there is no land
phones,
thank goodness for cell phones but most of the batteries are now
dead.
I have been working 12 hours with sometimes 4 hours off. We are
running
out of medical supplies, linens, etc. People are being sent back to
the
shelters, who shouldn't be. Other countries are now coming to our
aid
and
medical supplies are starting to arrive. They are getting all people
off
the island, who don't have to be here. I could go on and on but I
just
wanted to give you an idea what is happening in "once" paradise.
Norm and I have been too busy with work to deal with our loss, but
after
working 2 days, I realize we got off lucky. Everyone is helping
everyone.
I now have 3 pair of shorts, 5 tops, 2 pair of shoes and 2 pair of
socks
to
my name. I will be taking tomorrow off to try and see what I can
salvage
from our condo. Our landlord said he will not be rebuilding as
there is
too
much structural damage, so at the time we are homeless.
Anyway, I wanted to give you all an idea of what the last 5 days have
been
like.
I will keep in touch.
Take care
Love Louise

Makes me feel really lucky. Even those that lost all up in the panhandle can probably relate well to the above post.

Nope, no more storms for ANYONE, please!

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29539 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:19 PM

I am not wishing any more hurricanes anywhere, but am hoping to get a 40-50mph storm stall out about 50 miles off the Florida east coast for about a week and flush out some of this heat and humidity
(stalled storms tend to have cool dry air on the west side)


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29540 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:30 PM

Shoot man I hope this kills anyone's appetite for more exciting WX in the southeast. Many just do not know the intense damage one of these storms is capable of.

I do have a fear of island living due to the events just posted her for the Cayman's.


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Ricreig
User


Reged:
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Rabbit]
      #29541 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:34 PM

Quote:

I am not wishing any more hurricanes anywhere, but am hoping to get a 40-50mph storm stall out about 50 miles off the Florida east coast for about a week and flush out some of this heat and humidity
(stalled storms tend to have cool dry air on the west side)


....and for the 'surfer crowd', nice waves. Eh? I could wish for that, but won't because I don't surf, I try to swim Waves make that difficult, at a minimum.

Speaking of waves: They tend to erode the sandy beaches. When I was a kid, I remember I used to have to walk 'forever' to get to the water across the sand. Now, I sit in my car in the parkinglot and the ocean come up to the sea wall at high tide...no beach left in places....No, waves are'nt all that wonderfull either I guess.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29542 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:38 PM

The heat and humidity are what make this paradise what it is. If it were cooler and dryer than we would look like the Los Angeles area which is all dried out and brown looking. I know as I used to live out there..............plus the warmth just feels nice...........

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Ricreig
User


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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Redbird1]
      #29543 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:43 PM

Quote:

Shoot man I hope this kills anyone's appetite for more exciting WX in the southeast. Many just do not know the intense damage one of these storms is capable of.

I do have a fear of island living due to the events just posted her for the Cayman's.


While I don't have a fear of island living (mostly because I can't afford to), I do share your sentiments about the dangers during storm season. Thankfully, Ivans don't come around too often. Islands are considered 'paridise' because with few exceptions, one can live a lifetime without the disasters represented by Ivan and storms like him. But when it happess, a lot of suffering follows. I don't pity the people hit by these storms, pity does no good, but I certainly empathize with them and pray they can put their lives back together quickly. To those that didn't make it, I feel the anguish of their survivors, those that died no longer have to worry.

--------------------
Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29544 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:51 PM

I do feel a lot of sorrow for those that are vulnerable such as the Cayman islanders and others. I like having more land options in the event of an evacuation.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Redbird1]
      #29545 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:31 PM

just want to pop in here and say that it unaminus now. The 18Z GFS has Jeanne going WNW-NW after 36hours and hittting the Carolinas. Though I think it will be more west, I think it could get close to Florida and the Bahamas before going N,,,,thing is does it have a chance to get in the gulf?? Yes. Will it?? Dont know cause alot of models show some kinda mid level disturbance or trough over florida. If this isnt there by time she gets near Grand Bahama I dont see nothing to stop her from continuing WNW into florida.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: scottsvb]
      #29546 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:00 PM

I agree Scottsvb, but if the ridge of high pressure were to build overtop the storm I think we could see it moving SW at 10-15 knots just like Betsy did. If the ridge does sort of a reverse eddy and the ridge sticks it's nose out overtop the storm I think it could go to Florida; Northern. Just my thought.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne's Death Toll Rising Fast [Re: Keith234]
      #29547 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:24 PM

Reuters is now reporting 662 dead from Jeanne in Haiti with over 1,000 missing!!!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6296906

This is looking more and more like a repeat of the May disaster. Jeanne should definitely be retired.

--Lou


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LI Phil
User


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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Jeanne 5 Day [Re: Keith234]
      #29548 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:28 PM

When I start to see the models coming into agreement and a 5 Day Forecast like this, it gets my attention...especially since scottsvb said earlier he thinks this could reach CAT III status...

Up here we've been extremely lucky since Gloria; Bob '91 stayed well offshore; the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92 did produce copious flooding, but not the horrible winds & surge (think the Hurricane was Grace); Floyd '99 was but a mere shell of himself when he passed through here with TS winds; Isabel '03 really scared the bejezzus out of us, but she never recurved after going inland.

I need to come up with some kind of patented Rabbit Voodoo Hex...maybe wishing it to come here will work...

Still not ready to make a forecast yet, and I don't think we will really have a grip on Jeanne until Friday, when she should basically be in the same place she is right now...give or take.

While I will definitely not call for a cross-FL to the Gulf scenario, I don't think anyone on the East Coast can relax just yet.

Ivan's remnants are now in the GOM, but he's getting sheared pretty good at the moment. However, if those remnants can survive, conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development...

Maybe this will hit NO as a CAT III for Steve...or even make it all the way to SoonerShawn in Houston...who knows?

Karl is definitely for the trout but will his little sister Kate follow him or pass on the Fujiwhara and inch across the pond.

After seeing what Jeanne did to Haiti, I can almost guarantee she's being retired. I'm going to officially recommend that WMO replace Charley with Clyde, Frances with Francesux, Ivan with Idontneednomorestinkinhurricanes, and Jean with Justsayno.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
bevy of comments [Re: scottsvb]
      #29549 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:35 PM

lot going on still.. this could run on forever.
jeanne is the top priority right now. it's beginning the anticyclonic loop that has been appearing in the forecast and on various model runs for the past few days.. and should accelerate westward over the next couple of days back towards the northern bahamas. the globals (gfs in particular) that were dead set on either stalling it or taking it east, as scottsvb mentioned, are now seeing the writing on the wall. that excerpt from bastardi linked earlier in the thread has an excellent discussion on just this topic.
i've got a mind that jeanne will get bypassed by another shortwave and come in sheared and weak early next week somewhere in the carolinas. the euro solution is the one i give the most credit right now. it may peak at cat 3 east of the bahamas, but upper westerlies too prominent in the globals for jeanne to come through strong.
ivan remnants sputtering and very weak.. traversing the gulf. it should work its way w to wnw and reach texas friday or saturday. bastardi thinks it redevelops.. i'm not so sure, but wouldn't be surprised.
karl going up and out. like a good hurricane. its wake shouldn't capture lisa, though it ought to keep the system slow-moving. the official keeps showing it turning nw late in the forecast period.. don't think that feature will turn it.. too much uncertainty with it's upcoming interaction with the disturbance trailing it. that disturbance should be a depression now (d2.0), but NHC has gone back to its usual ultra-conservative approach to distant systems. i have a feeling that it and lisa are about to duel. the following wave has model support for development as well.. given the recent trends i'd say there could be another active cyclone in the cape verde region in the next few days.. though we're close to the closure of that region of the basin.
earlier there was lots of talk about name retirement and lineage (with Ivan). Charley, Frances, Ivan, and now jeanne are potential retirees. if jeanne later hits the united states its chances will further rise. Frances has mediocre chances, notwithstanding the rumors of france requesting its removal. Charley and Ivan are slam-dunk retirees.. too much death and destruction to re-use them. for a single season there have been more than the usual retirement or two.. but then there have been lots of landfalling systems.
as far as the gulf system keeping the name Ivan.. i'd vote for it personally (it's been a trackable vortmax on a trough since decoupling from the transitioning surface system over virginia on saturday).. and NHC has mentioned it's descendance from Ivan in it's two's and discussions.. suffice to say they see the relationship. it could realistically go either way... but would create questions when this seasons record goes to climatology.. was it one system or two?
well, ya'll have a good night. time to get some lunch/dinner.
HF 2333z21september


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #29550 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:39 PM

I like those last two names you came up with. By the way I shared your coconuts joke with someone who thought it was amazingly funny. How do you keep such a great sense of humor Phil?

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1063
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Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: Redbird1]
      #29551 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:49 PM

Great forecast Scott and one I think will pan out. I think the options are somewhere between a NJ and an eastern Gulf hit, but are most likely centered between GA and VA (e.g. SC, NC - landfall or brush-by).

Bastardi did a 4:15 update and now believes Ivanspawn will hit between 91 and 94W. I live at 90, so I'm not sure where 91 to 94 is but I'm guessing it's around Beaumont, TX to lower Terrebonne Parish (Cocodrie, Dulac, Chauvin, etc.).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: Redbird1]
      #29552 - Tue Sep 21 2004 11:51 PM

Quote:

I like those last two names you came up with. By the way I shared your coconuts joke with someone who thought it was amazingly funny. How do you keep such a great sense of humor Phil?




Well, I'm glad somebody appreciates my humor. Makes it easier to get through the day...BTW, just wait until I do my next "GEMS" in the Comedy forum. If you didn't see the past few, click on Comedy Shop then click on "Gems from today" and "Gems from the past week or so" and check it out!

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Redbird1
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #29555 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:05 AM

Thanks for the tip...........will check it out myself.

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
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Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #29556 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:36 AM

LI phil,

With me on the Island I'll be sure to get the eye if it would come up here, since bad weather follows me like my dog. Anyway this season should be called the Season of Retired Names. How many names have been retired already, Charley, Frances, Ivan and now Jeanne; what's next... At least there's one good thing out of this, no nor'easters. The tropical systems have robbed all of the energy from the oceans and have left none for any nor'easter. That doesn't matter though we never know. I'll be following all these storms very close, people up here are not prepared for a hurricane and most likely not a CAT 3. I hope this won't be the LIer's wake up call for preparing with a hurricane.

Keith Roberts

eh, i dunno keith, last i heard the gulf stream is still flowing.. noreasters are more of a pattern-induced type of feature.. a temperature gradient on the east coast gives them more punch, but they're a menace regardless. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Wed Sep 22 2004 02:42 AM)


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MR. UnHappy
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #29558 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:37 AM

Just a little note about the response to the damage from Charlie and Frances (and to a lessor extent Ivan):

Pitiful. Plain awful. Charlie destroyed my neighborhood here a little N. of Orlando. There has been NO govermental response at all. (Save FEMA which has handed out checks to the UNINSURED.) Any damage not fixed by the homeowners remains. The debris remains. Had it not been for the "good ole boys" and their chain saws I assume we would still be trapped in here.

The public servants (Police and Fire) have actually had a detremental effect on the recoverery. Let me explain:

The police in the intial days seemed to be concerned that only FL licensed contractors do any repairs. This has effectively scared everyone off. In one case they threatened to arrest a brother of a storm victim for working on the roof because of lack of permit and a FL contractors license. That house later suffered $15,000 damage from the rain.

In another case the police threatened to arrest a single mother for disturbing the peace for running her generator after 10 PM.

Here, the seldom seen fire department made a drive through last week. They were warning people that there was a "voluntary" evacuation for flooding and that if you didn't leave they would NOT respond to emergency calls. They sounded more like lawyers than public servants.

I live on the St. Johns river, and anyone who has lived here any length of time knows we are not in the 100 year flood plain and the chance of flooding was non-existent. However, they did scare some of the older people and newer residents. My neighbor spent 2 days sandbagging her house. The fire department did throw out sand bags for the taking at their location, but filling them (no matter how old or disabled) was up to you. Maybe there were lots of fires in the flooded areas.

The Red Cross (consisting of 4 women in a compact car) came by once with meals 6 days after Charlie. For ice, water and gas you were on your own the entire time.

The power company was admirable after Charlie (7 days with much damge) but not so good after Frances (8 days with no discernable damage).

My neighbors still have damaged roofs with no one to repair them. I have not ONCE seen any public official help anyone. (The property appraiser drove through twice.) Private contractors are finally removing debis in some areas but not here.

I can only feel for those that suffered Ivan. I certainly hope they receive better treatment than we have..

Mr. U.


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troy
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: Redbird1]
      #29559 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:38 AM

Quote:

the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92




Phil,

Halloween Strorm ( known as the Haloween swell to those of us who surf) was 1991


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leetdan
Weather Guru


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Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: MR. UnHappy]
      #29561 - Wed Sep 22 2004 12:48 AM

For anybody with roof damage, the Army Corps has a temporary repair program that's been mentioned on Palm Beach / TCoast radio since Frances. It was 1-800-ROOF-BLU, or maybe 1-866-ROOF-BLU or maybe even 877 or 888, I'm not positive. The point is, there's still assistance available.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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