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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29562 - Tue Sep 21 2004 08:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92




Phil,

Halloween Strorm ( known as the Haloween swell to those of us who surf) was 1991




Yep...absolutely right, should have rechecked my data...actually should have thought about the hurricane names...if you had bob, your G-storm would be female (ala grace)...

I remember it well because I hosted a Hallowe'en party at which only about 1/2 the guests showed up due to the crappy weather...at least we didn't have to deal with many trick or treaters...little bastids

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: bevy of comments [Re: HanKFranK]
      #29563 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:02 PM

Excellent discussion on the tropics there HF. In regard to the remnants of Ivan, I think that they will be named the same name because they have been saying the remnants of Ivan somewhere in the NHC diccussions, don't want to open another arguement though... The regeneration of Ivan is like a 50:50 chance, it's weird that the storms that have the most overall cyclonic energy ala Camille regenerated. Maybe the atmosphere can only hold a given amount of energy from a storm, so inturn the storms energy transforms from kientic to potential which I'm really not going to go in detail about that. Have a goodnight everyone!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: LI Phil]
      #29564 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:06 PM

Hey Guys, I finally made it back to my house today in Gulf Breeze after the bridge out of Pensacola opened. My house was missing alot of shingles as are most houses around here but the big problem are all the tree's. I think this qualifies as extreme tree damage. Every tree either lost almost every branch and limb or is snapped in half or on houses. Its very bad. The trees are all "naked" now since no leaves survived. We in my neighborhood are lucky though. Just a block away is were the flooding and surge damage starts. Whats amazing is these streets are a quarter mile from the sound. Its not a good site at all, very sad near the water. WHOLE houses are gone. I counted about 6 in my area that are completely gone except foundations. The big difference was stilts. If your house was on stilts its ok, if not, its inhabitable or gone. This is the Oriole Beach area of Gulf Breeze. I was lucky and Im very thankful. Everyone pray for those that lost everything. Goodnight

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: FEMA [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29565 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:08 PM

I'm sorry to hear that FEMA has indeed dropped the ball again. It would seem that under an emergency/natural disaster declaration, by the Governor and/or the President, would waive any or most of the regulations for recovery. Apparently Not.
I would think that All of the federal, state and local agencies are beyond being overwhelmed with their tasking, and would permit certain specified recovery efforts.


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: bevy of comments [Re: HanKFranK]
      #29566 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:09 PM

I'll echo HF's comments here.

Jeanne, if it heads west, will be one sheared system...and as we saw late last week, it doesn't deal well with shear, being a relatively small storm.

Karl's going out to sea, where it can stir up the fishies and say hi to Danielle while it's there. Should be a nice extratropical storm for the maritimes in a few days.

Lisa is caught between a rock (Karl) and a hard place (the future TD 14). It's small size helps it a good bit, but it needs Karl to get away before it does anything. Would not be surprised to see a fujiwhara scenario set up between it and the system behind it...with Lisa being the Karen to the TD 14's Iris (1995).

The system behind it may well be TD 14 already and has a fair shot at being Matthew before too long. It might take the Karl path for awhile due to interaction with Lisa, but ultimately may end up turning back more to the west as it either rotates around Lisa to its south or eats the storm alive. Probably one for the fish down the line, which I don't think we all will complain about.

Models do give support to another wave in the wake of these, but I can't imagine there's that much left in the CV season. The climatological time frame is going out the window, atmospheric indicators are starting to go negative, and the waters are cooling both due to climatology as well as so many storms out there upwelling the water.

In the not too distant future, it'll be Gulf & Caribbean open season. We'll see some fronts make their way here, stall, and get some lows spinning in the Bay of Campeche or west-central Gulf. Here's hoping there aren't many that do so...and definitely no Mitches.

Remnants of Ivan...don't think they'll amount to anything, 'cept maybe spin around and around the SE US for awhile. Who knows, it could be the next Gordon (the 1994 version). Just don't think we'll get 5 systems at once.

The Mediterranean storm mentioned in the first post to the thread has moved off into Turkey, but I might be able to get you all a phase analysis on the low in the next few days to see what sort of structure it had. Not out of the question that it was a subtropical low....tropical might be stretching it, but I'll see what I (well, not really me, but my "boss") can dig up.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Jeanne 5 Day [Re: DroopGB31]
      #29567 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:11 PM

Oh and sorry Phil if this is off topic. Just wanted to let ya'll know whats going on. And for the record, what storm do you all (this year) believe was the worse?

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Ivan remnants getting pulzerized by shear [Re: LI Phil]
      #29568 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:12 PM

no big surprise here... system getting blasted by strong SW shear from the ULL off in the BOC.... and if you look really long and hard enough on the IR loops you can see the weak LLC in the SE GOM.... estimated location of the center is ~25.2 and 84.2, will say this, shear not all that bad in the northern GOM at the moment... it might have a chance to develop to TS level if it can get some northerly component to it... and it looks like its moving around 315 degrees as best I can tell from the limited loops I've been watching... two tropical models run earlier on the day on this system brought it close to NO, one over to the panhandle, and one just kinda had it doing circles off the mouth of the MS river.... SHIPs had it max at 37K....

maybe a Bear watch will be posted tomorrow evening for the LA coast....
bares watching,...
barely...


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Bear Watch [Re: Frank P]
      #29569 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:35 PM

Great to have the site back up. While reading this thread I noticed several references to a "Bear Watch".
I "Googled" bear watch and everything I found was in the mountains of Canada and the U.S. All the information was about bear habitats and bear/human interaction.


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BillD
User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
Re: Bear Watch [Re: danielw]
      #29570 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:39 PM

The BEAR watch was mentioned in a local (somewhere in Texas) NWS forecast that SoonerShawn posted recently. I don't know if it was a typo, a joke, or what, but someone (Frank P?) picked up on it and it has been mentioned ever since.

Bill


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SoonerShawn
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Bear Watch [Re: danielw]
      #29571 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:40 PM

I have to disagree with JB on this one. I don't see much happening with the remnants of Ivan. We are forecasted to get some good rain in here by the end of the week but I think it will mainly come from the front that will come through and not by former Ivan. I don't even think his remnants will make it all the way to Texas. LA is as far west as I see it coming.

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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: Bear Watch [Re: danielw]
      #29572 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:44 PM

I honestly think it was an inside joke posted by the NWS office out of Houston/Galvaston office in reference to the fact that Ivan, and is basically a Russian name and perhaps heading their way, thus the Ivan the "Bear Watch" was posted on one of their AFD afternoon discussions a couple of days ago as they mentioned the possibility of the Ivan remnants heading towards Texas...... tongue-in-cheek I'm sure.... who the heck knows anymore.... NHC threw out the "Karl Marks" comment in one of their discussions... maybe the NWS did not want to be outdone...
I think its all hilarious.....


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season? [Re: Ricreig]
      #29573 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:53 PM

huh???

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Kdubs
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 44
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: To MR UNHappy [Re: Unregistered User]
      #29574 - Tue Sep 21 2004 09:53 PM

I just wanted to add my response to your unhappiness.

I live in South Orlando, in the path of Charley's eye and the NE quadrant of Frances.

The police and fire units did a remarkable job, at least in our area of the city. They started clearing streets at midnight, less than an hour after Charley blew through. FIREmen and POLICEmen... not treecutters. They went beyond their job description to make it possible for them to access potential emergency areas. As for the contracting, I don't know why they wouldn't allow out-of-state contractors to work, except for the large influx of unisured, unlicensed contractors. Their mistakes and injuries cost our local governments (and ultimately YOU, the taxpayer) a lot of money.

FEMA is there to help out those people who need assistance. You made a point of saying they gave checks to the "uninsured". Keyword = uninsured. Those with insurance have response from a private organization. And it's not as if FEMA abandoned you. Where do you think much of the available ice, water, food, tarps, shovels, chainsaws, etc came from? FEMA brought much of that in, and how much did they charge us for all those thousands of pounds of ice we took from their distribution sites? That's right... nuthin. So we had to go pick it up... Do you expect them to deliver to all 1 million residents of Orange County along with all the residents of the other counties hit?

Two million cubic yards of debris is a lot of stuff to pick up. Ours sat at the end of our yard for a long time, till after Frances. We had to tie it down so it would become flying debris. And yeah, it killed our grass, and yeah, when the men came to pick it up, they scraped up a good portion of our yard doing it, but how much did they charge you for curbside pickup, removal, and dumping? Any fees? Didn't think so.

I have no idea where you got the St. Johns flooding bit from. Every day I turn on the news, they have aerial pictures from the St. Johns seawalls with water SLOSHing up over them, flooding the streets of Sanford and Deltona. Whatever.

Gas was a pain to find. That one I'll give you. But the Central Florida petroleum distribution site is down here in South Orlando, and every truck that left that site was accompanied by at least one, usually two, law enforcement vehicles, ensuring that the gasoline got to a station near you, for your use, and that no one interfered with the delivery of what little gasoline there was to distribute.

The power companies have done miracles considering that they had to replace hundreds of miles of cables AFTER removing the trees from the lines and poles. They had to replace poles, transformers, jacks, etc. And before your house could get electricity back, they had to get power back to the substations and main transmission lines. And to get us power back quickly, they rigged it with only the essentials, knowing it will take a full year to completely repair the damage. When Frances came through, it didn't take as much damage to pull down what the power company had just duct taped up. And with 2 million people without power from Frances and almost that many from Charley just weeks before, you should be counting your blessings you weren't last.

When you purchase a home, you take on the responsibility for that home. It is not someone elses responsibility to keep the water out, to prop the walls up, to repair your wallpaper, or to fix you roof. There is insurance available to those who wish to have it, and bank loans available to those who don't. There are thousands of structures suffering from roof damage and only so many roofers to fix them. Be patient and use some of those free tarps that FEMA is handing out. They have a lot of people to help and it makes their job harder when there are disgruntled, unappreciative residents. Be grateful you still have a house that needs repair, unlike so many people in the Palm Bay/Jupiter Beach region, Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda region, and Gulf Shores/Pensacola region who would probably be more content having to wait for someone to repair their roof rather than wait for someone to build them a new house because theirs was washed into the ocean.

--------------------
South Orlando
God Bless
A B C D E F G H I J K L
Bold = Reached hurricane status
Italics = Impacted Florida


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Thomas says Florida beware again [Re: Kdubs]
      #29575 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:01 PM

As I posted on Friday September 17, 2004, Jeanne is displaying some similar traits as Ivan. With all the adversity thrown at her in recent days she has not died but instead has grown to a hurricane again. Because the mid latitude trough passing by to the north did not pick Jeanne up. She is looking quite good with a solid and tight eyewall but with a shrouded eye and good outflow. She will probably end up going quasi stationary again then make a complete loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in future days, steered by the eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. She may also once face wind shear again enroute to Florida so her ultimate strength is tough to call. I'll stick with a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne in future days.

Lisa, a very small cyclone with improved banding and outflow. She will probably grow quickly and threaten the northern Leeward islands in future days on a WNW heading. A U.S. strike is also possible.

Ex Hurricane Ivan/Future T.S. Matthew. Yes it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. See I said that it would strike peninsular Florida :<)) It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina. Bizarre but true! He/it passed across South Florida and emerged into the Gulf Of Mexico and will head for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew.

Yes there are two other strong tropical disturbances chasing Lisa. GADS!

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.


Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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52255225
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29576 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:10 PM

Thank You for posting! Its always nice to hear from the pros on this site. Sounds like you are somewhat in agreement with scottsvb, another good one here.

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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: To MR UNHappy [Re: Kdubs]
      #29577 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:12 PM

Kdubs...that was one of the poignant posts I have seen regarding the recovery here in Central Florida. I too witnessed our law enforement people out the same night Charley struck, cutting down trees to open up our roads.
I think the recovery effort and camaraderie have
been remarkable.
I have already received my insurance check to repair my home and have gotten offers from creditors to forego payments on such things as car loan & credit cards until we have gotten back on our feet. Bright House Cable has even credited us back for the lost days of service due to the hurricanes.

--Lou


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29578 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:13 PM

You know, If Jeanne comes on Saturday, I am cancelling that TIVO forever! Three times is a sign from above that I am not suppose to have one.

--------------------
Jim


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again [Re: Rasvar]
      #29579 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:16 PM

Yeah, and I just took all my shutters down and put them away too. Of course, if a weekend is coming in September, the chance is there for another hurricane. This could be weekend 4 in a row.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #29580 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:29 PM

Reuters now lists 709 confirmed dead in Haiti with still over 1,000 missing.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6297971

Jeanne is the third tropical system this year to kill more than 100 people (including the May tropical system that the NHC refused to classify). Does anyone know the record for the year with the most tropical cyclones that killed more than 100? Could 2004 rack up another infamous record??
--Lou


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cmdebbie
Unregistered




Re: To MR UNHappy [Re: Kdubs]
      #29581 - Tue Sep 21 2004 10:31 PM

I could not have said it any better myself! I live in Oviedo, which is NorthEast of Orlando. In my neck of the woods, the help and clean-up efforts have been phenomenal!!! They have been through my neighborhood atleast twice, possibly a third time, picking up debris. Law Enforcement, Fire Departments, FEMA, and everyone else have been unbelievable. The only complaint that I have is that my insurance company didn't make it out from Charley until after Frances, but hey...that probably saved me a second deductible, so I can't really complain there. I am also having a hard time getting proposals from vendors, but this is certainly understandable. Patience is a wonderful virtue.

After living through the nightmare, I choose to put my energies into being thankful that I still have life and a home, rather than complaining and feeling sorry for myself! It could have been alot worse, and was for alot of people.


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