Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Lord I know how tired and worn out you poor people must be.... but IF she becomes a major, and now I'm hearing talk of Cat 4, trust me, you DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL.... just call someone from Orange Beach, Perdido Key or Pensacola, who rode out and ask them.... I've been listening to their horror stories on TV for the past week....
And the problem is, you just don't know where exactly the eye wall will go.. and you are running out of time....
27.3 is not that much farther from 26.5 (.8 n) and it would not be difficult for Jeanne to turn towards the north slightly as she approaches landfall... all the models predicts some turn, that's a given, where is still debatable...
Case in Point... ... heading directly towards the MS coast... and got as far west as 88.3, but turned off to the right just before inland at 87.7 (.6W).... granted this was not much, but if it gets you out of the eye wall and especially the eastern quad, it can be a tremendous difference between life and death, total devastation and absolute destruction, or just a few trees down....
Ivan was moving at a decent clip too when it made this life altering change, great for the MS coast, catastophic for the East Al and Fl Panhandle...
and a strong Cat 3 or greater is just that... A life altering experience.... you just don't want to take the chance it alters yours and your love one more than need be.....
Repeat........
DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IT......
good luck to all
I so feel your pain
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kyop
Unregistered
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Well this track thing is fairly simple. I live in Babson Park in Polk County and, no matter what the projections, they end up going over my house. The eastern eyewall of passed 3 miles to the west of us (ouch) and went right over, allowing me to put fresh tarp on the roof at half-time.
So just get a marker and connect the current position with Babson Park, FL.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I think with there was a trough sitting over Florida, and she moved along that, much like Jeanne is doing now. She is going to follow the left-most part of the high; that's what's steering her into south/central Florida, and once there she will move in a poleward N/S direction around the high.
The path of least resistance, if you will. Hope that explains it better.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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Thanks for your explaination Colleen, it helps put things in perspective.
By the way from you tag line, I think I may be a hurricane freak too.
Quote:
I think with there was a trough sitting over Florida, and she moved along that, much like Jeanne is doing now. She is going to follow the left-most part of the high; that's what's steering her into south/central Florida, and once there she will move in a poleward N/S direction around the high.
The path of least resistance, if you will. Hope that explains it better.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I just saw local channel 2 news in Orlando. I95 and the Beeline and I4 are still all relatively clear. I am afraid everyone is suffering from hurricane complacency here. People along the coast and all the other required evac areas need to do so now.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 154
Loc: United States
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He's right. If you have never seen a storm surge, here is a link to Hurricane Isabel and the storm surge experienced.
http://www.weathervine.com/hurricanes/isabel/9_18_03_surge.html
Heres another site for before and after pics of Camille:
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
Repeat........
DO NOT WANT TO RIDE THIS OUT.... IF THERE IS ANY CHANCE YOU WILL BE IN THE EYE WALL OR JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF IT......
good luck to all
I so feel your pain
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Now showing up great on the long range radar loop out of Miami... pummeling the Bahama Islands...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
Boy, this reminds me of Andrew... but just a tad north.... some scary stuff going to happen soon in Fl...
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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I hope no one is planning on trying to evac to Atlanta, cause just like on Labor Day weekend, hotel rooms are few and far between here....
Just a gut feeling here, but I'm thinking that if that High doesn't start to get a move on, Atlanta's gonna have some more problems with heavy rain and trees falling....
Worst case scenario? Jeanne, a re-formed III and this new Low in the gulf.....
Please someone send Mother Nature an industrial strength Midol cause she is mad about something.....
Seriously, everyone in the path of Jeanne, we here in Georgia are keeping you in our thoughts and prayers for a safe passage through this storm.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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52255225
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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Collen, Im just seeing this update, unbelivable! Im in manatee county. Do you think if it stays on this tract will we just have trop force winds here or cat 1 winds? I cant believe this crap again! Thanks 
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I got about 3-1/2 hours sleep today. I have packed up sleeping bags, pillows, food, etc. to drop off at the HS shelter this morning, as that's where the kids' football games will be played. Personally, I think that they should call off the games because this thing is not , it's moving and it seems like everytime I look, it's moving faster...and getting bigger. I have had a bad bad feeling about this storm from the beginning and even though I know some people thought I was nuts, a Cat 4 was NOT out of my realm of possibility. I said last night (or this morning) that I was afraid this thing would bomb out before making landfall and I think that's exactly what might happen.
Frank---what will happen with Jeanne if she goes over Lake Okeechobee---I think that the Orlando channel showed water temps of 87 degrees. Wouldn't that just make this whole weakening trend upon landfall a mute point? I mean, could we be looking at a Cat III as far inland as Lakeland?
I don't know whether to cry, throw up or throw something.
I will make a suggestion: what if the people here on the board who live here in Florida gave our friends who live in places like MS, AL, TX, LI, etc. our relatives phone numbers so that they can relay information to them in case we can't? I know that it was hardest on my Mom when she couldn't get through during . Since we're almost like family here anyway, our loved ones would be getting information from people that know about the storms and care about US.
Just a suggestion.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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Coleen,
Where are you located? Check out the RAMSDIS water vapor loop. There is some interesting dynamics going on right now to the north. I am in northwest Orlando (Wekiva sub-division) and am really fearing this thing. It is expected to come very close to my house and I will be on the east side of the track.
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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
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Just got this in my e-mail from my-cast.com from Melbourne NWS office....
WE ARE CONCERNED AFTER WATCHING SOME NEWS ACCOUNTS REGARDING RESIDENTS OF BARRIER ISLANDS WHO ARE PLANNING TO RIDE OUT HURRICANE
JEANNE BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCES WITH HURRICANE . WE HAVE DONE A DETAILED DAMAGE SURVEY OF THE COASTLINE OF THE IMPACT OF HURRICANE ...AND IT IS IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS TO REALIZE THAT THE WORST WIND AND STORM SURGE FROM AFFECTED AN UNPOPULATED AREA OF HUTCHINSON ISLAND BETWEEN FORT PIERCE BEACH AND
JENSEN BEACH AND NETTLES ISLAND.
and.....
JEANNE WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER ...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE INNER EYEWALL MAKES LANDFALL. AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THIS AREA WILL BE.
THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME THIS MORNING TO COMMIT TO EVACUATING AS ADVISED AND MOVE TO SAFETY.
WE HAVE MADE IT THROUGH AND WITHOUT ANY DIRECT DEATHS
FROM HURRICANE WIND OR WATER IMPACTS...PLEASE FOLLOW ADVICE OF YOUR COUNTY OFFICIALS AND LETS ALL MAKE IT THROUGH THIS AGAIN.
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You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore and Geraldo Rivera broadcasting from your backyard....literally!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Yes, there is a possibility that you could see Cat 1 winds. Denis Phillips mentioned that last night while stressing to those of us in Polk County just how worried he was about us. Just stay tuned to the locals weather stations...like you wouldn't be anyway, LOL. Denis Phillips is good, so is Steve Jerve. Phillips got my wrath when missed TB but made a beeline for Polk County.
He's been bowing at my feet for weeks now. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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OrlandoDan
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 443
Loc: Longwood, FL
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I just saw channel 9 news in Orlando for the traffic report again. There is nobody on the roads! I4 is clear, the Beeline is clear, I95 is clear. What is going on? Hurricane compacency it has got to be!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1299
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Colleen, looks like your earlier fears maybe coming to fruition.... these things always have a surprise or two for us.... s turn at the end spared us on the MS coast....
looking at the radar loops, Jeanne looks like she's hauling butt and the east coast of Fl will be getting some serious storms... sooner rather than later... and the faster she goes, the farther inland she brings those damaging winds... and if it were to go more south over Lake Okeechobee, its only adding more fuel to the fire....
If any members of the family would like my cell phone number to have available to relatives to relay storm information just send me a personal message and you will get it.... However, I will give it out to registered members only... sorry
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Dan, I'm in south Lakeland near George Jenkins High School, about 10 miles north of Bartow. I'll expect the worst but hope for the best. We didn't lose power with , the lights flickered with , so I don't know what Jeanne holds in store for us.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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John C
Unregistered
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Thanks for the traffic update, lets just hope it stays that way. I have to run from Cocoa to Orlando Airport and back this morning to pick up a family member via the Beeline. Then off to work for the storm. Everyone be safe.
John
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KC
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
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Quote:
I got about 3-1/2 hours sleep today. I have packed up sleeping bags, pillows, food, etc. to drop off at the HS shelter this morning, as that's where the kids' football games will be played. Personally, I think that they should call off the games because this thing is not , it's moving and it seems like everytime I look, it's moving faster...and getting bigger. I have had a bad bad feeling about this storm from the beginning and even though I know some people thought I was nuts, a Cat 4 was NOT out of my realm of possibility. I said last night (or this morning) that I was afraid this thing would bomb out before making landfall and I think that's exactly what might happen.
Frank---what will happen with Jeanne if she goes over Lake Okeechobee---I think that the Orlando channel showed water temps of 87 degrees. Wouldn't that just make this whole weakening trend upon landfall a mute point? I mean, could we be looking at a Cat III as far inland as Lakeland?
I don't know whether to cry, throw up or throw something.
I will make a suggestion: what if the people here on the board who live here in Florida gave our friends who live in places like MS, AL, TX, LI, etc. our relatives phone numbers so that they can relay information to them in case we can't? I know that it was hardest on my Mom when she couldn't get through during . Since we're almost like family here anyway, our loved ones would be getting information from people that know about the storms and care about US.
Just a suggestion.
Colleen and all - I am in Naples. I know that all of us in Florida need to monitor closely. But, if things are safer here, I'd be willing to help out staying in touch with family members for anyone who needs it. I'm waiting anxiously for the local meteorologist to come on air.
Karen
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged:
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Latest path up close & personal
New users:
These maps are based on the forecast coordinates from the National Hurricane Center. Do not focus strictly on the path forecast as large errors may occur. All areas under warning must prepare.
If a watch or warning is issued for your area, follow the advice & directions of your local news source or official weather outlet.
The wind fields depicted are based on maritime winds and are not as large or concentric over land.
Full size image available here: www.skeetobite.com/weather
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clhooper1
Unregistered
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Okay, reading all of these, I am now becoming concerned. I live in Seminole County- Winter Springs to be exact. went through here and my house fared rather well, neighbors had wind and tree damage, neighborhoods surrounding us such as Tuskawilla and Casselberry had lots of trees down but of course nothing like Polk County or Osceola County got when moved through. Francis, well that came through it was just wind and rain and little to no damage in my area. I live not in a flood area but near Sykes creek(next block) and /Lake Jessup (around 4-5 miles away). The rain in this most recent storm I do not believe would place us in flood risk as our house is on rather high ground, but the comments and long standing cautions of north and east of the eye wall have got me concerned, especially since we have been so fortunate in past storms. How much north and east we are is between Casselberry and Oveido and I have elderly parents nearby whom I am wondering should I bring closer to me as my home has usually beeen the one that everyone ends up gravitating to because of prompt restoration of power (and that I am the only one with a generator and window air unit). My parents liev in a condo but again are elderly (70's) and I do not believe could fend for themselves should something happen to a roof or window. I don't want to overkill the hype as they are only estimating the winds at around 85-90 but again, with a west Orlando path, this would place us northeast. Should we be very concerned or just cautious. I guess since we have been so blessed and protected thus far I am wondering if our time has run out?
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