Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 170 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3345 (9 y 1 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2969
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: Unregistered User]
      #31694 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:22 AM

Saw Ed Rappaport on television they are considering moving the track a bit left for the 11AM now. Which increases the threat to Palm Beach County.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
VandyBrad
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 80
Loc: Bryan, TX 30.65N 96.30W
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: Unregistered User]
      #31695 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:22 AM

Good question. I brought this up to my wife when Frances hit and there was still debris from Charley in the greater Orlando area. I'm worried because in Gainesville, we've got debris EVERYWHERE. I'd assume that it doesn't take much to lift debris off the ground. BUT, I noticed that during Frances, the debris thrown off the trees early in the storm was never picked back up even after several hours. Maybe it was because that debris was wet, or tropical storm force winds weren't enough. Anyone else have anything to offer on this?

--------------------
Brad Shumbera


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Shalafi
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: BVaught]
      #31697 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:23 AM

I'm with ya...Now we need info. It's time to let the forum be the magic that it is, an incredible source for info and analysis. Let's keep off-topic chat to a minimum and I, being one of the biggest offenders, will keep my fingers shut.

I'm not a mod so you don't have to listen to me, but it just seems like a good idea...

You guys are amazing and please stay safe! You can't overprepare..I'll be praying for you all

--------------------
Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ChicagoMatt
Unregistered




Re: I don't see the turn coming [Re: Unregistered User]
      #31698 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:25 AM

Is it possible to get access to the NCEP's FTP server? I thought it was anonymous but when I try to go ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data1/gfdl or ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data1/nogaps I get "Access Denied".

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Heather
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
Re: I don't see the turn coming [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #31699 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:27 AM

Uuuugghh!! I have never seen such a case of denial with my husband and especially my father. We lived in Boynton Beach during Andrew. He prepared for that one, but then the effects were minor. Has lived in Sebring for the past 10 years, ignoring all storms til Charley. In fact 30 minutes before we started feeling the effects of Charley my family was walking out the door to go to dinner. No concept whatsoever. Of course they were caught a little bit off guard when they were without electricity for days. For Frances, my household was prepared-parents were going on vacation come hell or highwater-which they did. They did have the sense to bring back a generator as they are hard to find here. My father prepared for Ivan, and was then annoyed when it didn't visit us. I haven't heard the end of it yet. So now we face Jeanne, he is still saying "It ain't coming here" and "There is so much real estate b/t Sebring and the coast". I showed him Skeetobite's graphic-no good. This is so frustrating as he is a teacher and does have some common sense, usually prepared for things to the max-but blowing this off. I've also noticed that all of neighbors are currently having yard sales today!! The denial is frightening. Most frightening is what is going to happen tonight that is going to shock this "inland" town into reality.
Thanks for letting me vent...I'll go back to lurking now.

--------------------
When it rains, it pours...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sthorne
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: MikeC]
      #31700 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:28 AM

Well, looks likeTWC's Stephanie Abrams is at Club Med, about, oh...3 miles from my home...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: sthorne]
      #31701 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:30 AM

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat_pages/nexsat_home.html

Really cool satellite website

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: sthorne]
      #31702 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:35 AM

Sorry to hear that...not good news for you.... I am starting to get alittle worried myself over here on the west coast...I can not see the high breaking down fast enough for a northward turn before it gets to the GOM and I think we are in for another "Andrew" type move with the NHC playing catch up with their forcast. I think alot of people are going to be in real trouble this time....

Edited by firestar_1 (Sat Sep 25 2004 09:37 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MissBecky
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 90
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL 26.67N 81.73W
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: firestar_1]
      #31703 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:46 AM

Computer crashed last night...and all I could think was, "Now I can't check the NHC's track!"

Are people still thinking Jeanne might move west across the state? Yesterday my gut feeling was that she would, but today I am feeling less certain of that.

Trying to get caught up on reading...there's a lot of posts to go through...you guys are the best!

--------------------
In search of a witty sig.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
DC in Polk
Unregistered




Re: I don't see the turn coming [Re: ROB IN PA]
      #31704 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:48 AM

Jeanne's not going into the GOM (at least not until after she turns) because due west in the GOM is an ULL that has been moving towards FL from the mexico coast over the past couple days. The ULL (too dry for sat pics, but easily seen in WV) is going to block Jeanne's Western path, and give it "traction" to force the NW turn, and as the storm approaches GA, the westerlies will run it NE. The only question is how close does Jeanne have to get before the "traction" begins.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: firestar_1]
      #31705 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:48 AM

Been watching the loops for a little while now. It appeared that Jeanne had gained just a bit of latitude, but then at the last frame she appears to move just a hair south of due west. Like someone else mentioned some of the models(GFS/GFDL) did not have Jeanne moving at 14+mph at this point in time(if at ever). Even the UKMET, etc were calling for about 12mph. Any more increase in forward motion would probably shift the track that much further west. Either way this storm is close and only getting closer. Any faster movement to the west and it pushes up that timeline that much more.

--------------------
Check the Surf


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Artsy Fartsy
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 12
Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida 30.62N 81.54W
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: MikeC]
      #31706 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:49 AM

I have been a long time observer of this site, but only posted a few times. Like others I have questions about some of the terminology and acronyms that are used. The one that has me STUMPED are T-numbers. What are T-numbers and what do they represent.

Thanks for the info.


I posted this on an earlier thread, apparently at about the same time this thread was opened. Sorry if the double post is a problem.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: I don't see the turn coming [Re: DC in Polk]
      #31707 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:50 AM

That's what I thought yesterday. Today it looks like that ULL's eastward movement has been stopped in the central Gulf. It even looks to me like it is retreating.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 337
Loc: 28.60N 81.35W
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: firestar_1]
      #31708 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:51 AM

I think by now those that want to be prepared are.
THose that live dangerously aren't and never will be.
It's human nature.

Inland areas, just need to batten down and ride it out.
Unless you're in a mobile home or a flood prone area.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
BVaught
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: DC in Polk]
      #31709 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:51 AM

Quote:

Barry..... saw your post and as you said, you live near Wekiva Spring... my in-laws aslo live there and we have asked them to come stay with us in a single story new home just east of Clermont. They have a custom two story and you guys over there lose power everytime! Do you think it will be worse by you rather than here?? Thanks

Scott




It all depends on Jeanne 's final path.
Look at Skeetobites map http://www.skeetobite.com/
and stay away from the NE side of the eyewall and quadrant, if possible,however time is quickly dissappearing on making re-locations.
The power grid here is very fragile, and goes out even without a storm.
Please send any other questions to vaughtenterprise@aol.com to keep forum clear for emergency information.
Thank you
Barry


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Question on wind turbines [Re: BVaught]
      #31710 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:52 AM

I have two wind turbines (relatively new) on my south facing roof and are rated for ~120 mph winds (or so the box said)... I have multiple roof lines and the other parts of my roof has ridge vents.... I did not want any ridge vents running entire crown of my roof that faces south so I put up a couple of turbines... hurricane force winds drive water into ridge vents

if winds are expected to be greater than 120, should you.....
- cover and duct tape them with mutiple thick contractor garbage bags
- remove them ( then you have to deal with holes in roof)
- or just let them spin and hope for the best....

For Ivan I just let them spin but we didn't get any hurricane force winds in MS....

is there a special type of coverage available on the market to cover them?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
alan
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 95
Loc: Apopka, FL
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: Artsy Fartsy]
      #31711 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:52 AM

I'll take a short stab at T-numbers.
Don't really know why they are called that, but they are satellite estimates on strength. The higher the t-numbers, the worse the storm.
I think they rely heavily on them when the storm is over the central Atlantic and out of recon range.
Please correct me if I am wrong.

Also, just to see if we are talking about the same ULL, it's just south of LA now, right?


Edited by alan (Sat Sep 25 2004 09:54 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
centralfleagle
Unregistered




Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: MikeC]
      #31712 - Sat Sep 25 2004 09:56 AM

I live in north Lakeland (Polk County), and live about a block from a Home Depot store. Just passed by about a half hour ago, and visited a 7-11 on US 98 near I-4. Based on that visit I can say that people here are watching but we are not seeing the amount of concern/prepardness I had seen in earlier hurricanes. Either people had purchased their plywood or simply are not going through it again. The 7-11 cashier did tell me, though, that they are quickly running out of gas.

BTW: For anyone considering Polk County for an evacuation spot, they may want to consider visiting the Polk County Visitors and Convention Bureau Web site, www.sunsational.org, for information on room availabilities. On the site click on the "Hurricane Update" spot on the page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AgentB
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 179
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
Re: Jeanne Strengthening [Re: centralfleagle]
      #31714 - Sat Sep 25 2004 10:02 AM

T-numbers are a measurement on the Dvorak Scale. Like Alan said they are intensity estimates based on satellite imagery. Here's a link to some info and the scale:

Dvorak Scale

--------------------
Check the Surf


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: I don't see the turn coming [Re: DC in Polk]
      #31715 - Sat Sep 25 2004 10:08 AM

I the ULL actually has converging winds so the hurricane would near it but wouldn't block it though Jeanne coil some dry air into it's circulation. The ridge digging down from the mid-west followed by a cold front is going to do the blocking, how much is uncertain. The ridge will then spilt at it's weakness and leave a channel for Jeanne to ride out to become extra-tropical; again the strength of the ridge is uncertain.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 22 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 35667

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center