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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: New Skeetobite Maps on the front page [Re: LI Phil]
      #32991 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:08 PM

Would do street level, but the eye was as wide as the entire county for Frances and Jeanne so the county map pretty much covers it!

The cross roads are in a sparsely populated area half way between Bartow and Fort Meade at 27.81679N 81.80135W (to be exact) ;-)


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SteveieB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
Re: New Skeetobite Maps on the front page [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #32993 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:28 PM

Where are the T-shirts????????

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
less to the north [Re: scottsvb]
      #32994 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:30 PM

we had the main feeder band pass over last night, and have been mostly in a dry slot since mid morning with the occasional brief band sliding by. trees swaying gently, puddles on the ground.. nothing bad here. there is an active tornado warning in the county, but that's for the rural eastern part. several tornadic supercells have apparently caused some damage over in the eastern part of the state, but nothing serious has been reported thus far. it looks like we may get less rainfall than with Ivan here.. can't say the same right across the river in georgia, where it's been raining nonstop all day. jeanne's little jerk to the left overnight kept the rainshield over georgia, with the main feeder bypassing during the nighttime and the dry slot knocking down the development of isolated supercells by day.. all in all not bad. wish i could share my fortune with some of you.
for the coming days, summed basin forecast:
jeanne weakens and tracks off shore near nc/va border.. uncertainty to track thereafter as it may either decouple under shear or baroclinically deepen and become extratropical. wouldn't be surprised if it managed another loop (but seriously doubt it will come back this way).
lisa working its way nnw through the open atlantic, not going to bother anyone. may interact with departing jeanne. lisa has been a useful system.. explained below.
scott hinted at the sw caribbean.. models picking up on disturbed weather there.. pattern-induced stuff. just a bogie on the long range scan at this point, as the timing and amplitude of the shortwave in the east will dictate its potency.
lisa has been effectively blunting the westward progess of atlantic waves, absorbing their energy.. and the upper trough to the east is keeping anything from developing east of 40w. from here on in anything out there will form closer to the islands.
soi positive but tilting back to negative, watch for waves to bulk up when it does. MJO status flaky.. it hasn't been the driving influence this season, but may be a minor inhibiting factor for the next week or two.
HF 1825z27september


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #32995 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:46 PM

You better watch out for some tornadoic activity, especially with that tounge of dry air approaching.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #32997 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:52 PM

The SW Carribbean is starting to wake up, that area of low pressure over Central to South America is also acting up. Mainly because the water temps are decreasing in the Eastern Pacific ocean causing a ridge to build over the eastern pacific and a trough to build over central america. Almost like a mini-ITCZ, in terms of the convergence. Anyway, the water temps are mighty warm, the ULL is backing SW, the ridge is going to build back after Jeanne leaves the picture and create an area of excellent outflow. This could be a very strong storm, we'll have to see but the area is notorious for these things!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Tornadoic Activity [Re: Keith234]
      #32998 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:53 PM

Jeanne has actually produced very few tornadoes, much fewer than Ivan & Frances; while the threat is still very real and must be monitored, folks down there have been very lucky...so far as tornadoes are concerned...

Regarding the tongue of dry air approaching and now passing HF, I would think that would LESSEN the chance for severe weather, rather than enhance it...but I could be wrong there.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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kyop
Unregistered




Skeetobytes track map [Re: MikeC]
      #32999 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:58 PM

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Tornadoic Activity [Re: LI Phil]
      #33000 - Mon Sep 27 2004 02:59 PM

LI phil,

I believe that the mid-level dry air enhances the mixing in the troposphere. With the feeder bands and the abundant low level moisture, it creates mixing also lowers the cloud base altitude. If you have looked at a severe weather threat index they always metion the presence of low level moisure. Supercells spin up very fast in hurricanes because most of the parameters for severe weather are there.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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BobVee
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 15
Loc: Florida 28.60N 81.70W
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33001 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:00 PM

Greater Montverde area checking in. Had a wild ride for awhile. From about 1-5 PM had winds at least 70mph with gusts up to 85mph. Lost power about 4PM and came back on at 10AM today. I sat on my back porch most of the day with just a gentle breeze on occasion. Most of the wind was blocked by a nearby ridge line and heavy trees. Mostly tree damage here again. Neighbors lost two pole barns and I have seen some roof damage to a few homes. Lake County schools are closed today and tomorrow. Minneola Elem. and Mascotte Elem. had structural damage. Do not know about others. I hope everyone else was blessed as we were and do not have to go through this again.

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Grasshopper
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: less to the north [Re: Keith234]
      #33003 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:29 PM

I have been living in Tampa (Pinellas actually) for almost 7 years and this is amazing. Now I have heard that we are coming into a time where tampa is at its greatest threat. Is this true? I know very little about this "new" pattern. Do these storms form in the gulf? What kind of warning time am I looking at?

I am the MIS director of a local buisness and my employers look to me to keep them informed. They have a condo on the beach in Daytona so we have been pretty stressed around here. Everyone here has helped me so much in terms of "reading between the lines" and giving me insight to how these things work. Thank you so much and keep up the excellent work!

Matt

Edited by Grasshopper (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:31 PM)


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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33004 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:39 PM

Quote:

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.




Sorry man... not our data. Just our maps. The coordinates came from NHC advisories from the initial point for each new advisory. We have carefully plotted these to precisely the coordinates given. We have found our maps to be more precise that the "stick figure" maps provided by NHC.

I have seen all kinds of maps with the paths crossing well south and some completely out of Polk County as well.

Important to note that these are straight lines from point to point, and that is not how hurricanes move (except Charley apparently). Where these storms actually crossed was pretty darn close to the coordinates given by NHC. Given the size of the eye for each storm, being off a mile, or even 5 miles for that matter is irrelevant.

I'm sure you got hit, and deserve your purple hearts. I'm glad you are safe.

Edited to add:

Don't forget that these storms move in a curved path from coordinate to coordinate. For me to "guess" at the exact curve would in my mind be worse than using the straight line from point to point as shown in the maps. We all noticed that as Jeanne approached the coast, the curve in the path could account for approximately 10 to 20 miles difference in the point of landfal.l

Edited by SkeetoBite (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:53 PM)


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 67
Loc: Rockledge 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33005 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:39 PM

Kyop,

Skeet's maps are based only on the maps put out by the NHC, not out of his own intuiting (is that a word?) where the storm will. As a graphic artist (still in school) I think Skeet's maps are awesome!

(opps Skeet said it first. Oh well, I still think they are awesome)

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
2008 15/11/6

Edited by DMFischer (Mon Sep 27 2004 03:42 PM)


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Tampa... [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33006 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:45 PM

Ah, grasshoppa, you have learn much...

The season from hell has given every resident of Florida pause and with good reason...it may not be over.

What I believe you are referring to is not that Tampa is under any additional "threats" per se, only that climatologically speaking...this time of the season poses a greater threat to the GOM than earlier in the season.

It has to do with the "home brew" storms that were alluded to earlier and which HanKFranK explained in nice detail. The Cape Verde (or CV) season is basically over, and that refers to the "long trackers" that begin their journey off the African coast (near the Cape Verde Islands) and eventually traverse the Atlantic, sometimes spinning the fish, sometimes threatening the Islands and Bermuda, and sometimes, like this year, making a US landfall. Well, that part of hurricane season is now over. That does not mean the hurricane season is over however.

Our threats now are primarily from storms which form or have their origins in the Caribbean of the GOM, the "home brew". Since any storm that forms in the GOM could make a "direct hit" on Tampa Bay (or anywhere in the basin), it might be considered to be under a higher threat than at the beginning of the season.

This has been one of the most extraordinary seasons ever, the first time in like 130 years a single state has been hit 4 times...it is possible that Florida could go 20 years without another direct hit...

Here's a link to Jim William's Hurricane City, with Tampa's tropical storm history...this should assuage your fears...

If I have not made myself clear or you still have questions, feel free, I'll try to get some real research, but I think I did OK for now.

Basically, the threat to Tampa now is the same as it would be in any given year...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Jeanne Inland in the Southeast [Re: MikeC]
      #33007 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:48 PM

Checking in from East Orlando. Never lost power (again) so spent much of my time sitting on the front porch watching the show, or sitting inside watching the games. Slept a lot too-don't know if lower pressures cause that, but man, I tend feel so tired when these things happen. Maybe cuz it always happens at night.

Anyway, damage was a little more extensive in my immediate neighborhood that with Frances. Lots of shingles gone, couple of windows and one front door blown in, but this neighborhood will get through. I'm thinking this has to be the end, right? Of course, we usually take a hit in October when the Carribean season starts--maybe we'll break that record of 4 in one season.. Hope not.


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Grasshopper
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 7
Loc: Tarpon Springs, FL
Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33008 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:51 PM

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.


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Shortbus
Unregistered




Re: Skeetobytes track map [Re: kyop]
      #33009 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:53 PM

Quote:

Skeeter's track map needs a little work, especially the Charley track. Here's the NOAA track (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/information/charley/charleyframe.htm)
Skeeto has it almost on Bartow which is funny since we went to get gas and supplies there the next day. The eye passed well east of Bartow, directly over Lake Buffum if you can find that. I trust the NOAA map because I live in that area and am still cutting wood from Charley. I was on my roof making quick repairs when the eye of Frances went over and we were out for about 2 hours when the eye of Jeanne passed over yesterday. That is in Babson Park which Skeeter's map shows to be pretty safe and sound from Charley. You all should have been here to see how safe it was on the north end of Crooked Lake up a clear slope, checking out the Bernoulli effect 3 miles from the eastern eyewall of Charley and being hit dead on by Frances and Charley.

Hate to make a big deal out of it but the Weather Channel showed a bad map too, with Charley even west of Bartow, FL. I just don't want my 3 Purple Hearts to be classified as slivers.




My parents actually have a house on the north side of Lake Buffum. We lost a roof, dock and most of the trees in Charley, paid an ungodly amount to put up a temporary "band-aid" on the roof for Frances and just said the heck with it for Jeanne. Apparently we made it through with just a downed tree this time around. I live in Valrico and we came through with just one small tree down and a few holes in the screen enclosure from neighbors shingles. Lots of high winds though. This is the first time I've posted but I've been lurking around for awhile, great site; I know there are a lot of us out there who really appreciate the info people post on here.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tampa... [Re: Grasshopper]
      #33010 - Mon Sep 27 2004 03:57 PM

Quote:

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.




How much warning...that's hard to say...but if you stay on these boards, more time than the NHC gives you that's for sure...these guys can sniff trouble long before the public is given any notice...we got your back!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: less to the north [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33011 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:04 PM

HF:

Are you receiving much wind down there? We're just starting to really get some heavy rains up here, and there is virtually no wind with it. Forecast tonight differs from that, though.

Tornadoes in Sumter...again. Something about that inland town that hurricanes just love. (I think Hugo left his mark there and these guys are just coming by to pay their respects to him.)

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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DMFischer
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 67
Loc: Rockledge 28.32N 80.77W
Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33012 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:12 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Thank You, That is what I thought. How much warning will I have?

On the "record setting year" I totally agree with you. It is more irratating to me than anything else. So, my wife and I are looking to buy a house. I figure Real estate will drop quite a bit, and for no reason really. Lots of irrational selling.




How much warning...that's hard to say...but if you stay on these boards, more time than the NHC gives you that's for sure...these guys can sniff trouble long before the public is given any notice...we got your back!




Phil is quite right! Had it not been for this board, I would not have had the supplies and such I needed for Charley BEFORE the stores around here went nuts. The night before Charely hit they were talking about it here and I listened well. They were right on! I became a believer in these guys and their noses to sniff out the trouble that brews with a storm track.
To all you guys around here, my kids thank you! I kept my sanity and the kids actually read the forums with me and we all felt like we knew more what to expect. We all thank you.

Dawn

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08
2008 15/11/6


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Tampa... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33013 - Mon Sep 27 2004 04:20 PM

Hey LI
Thanks for all of the good work on the board - - The westerly trend discussed on this board proved out to be right and actually won me some respect. I really thought all of this stuff (CV Season) was over - but EGAD - Channel 9 is leading it's internet board with the headline - - New Tropical Wave coming off of Africa merits watching???? WHAT IS UP WITH THIS???? Any feedback?? Please tell me I won't have to paint my holiday decorations on my plywood??


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