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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear
      #33819 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:08 AM

Saturday 5PM Update:
From the NHC: AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM THE
ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

I sense a little gamesmanship at NHC (differing opinions) but at any rate, Matthew is a minimal Tropical Storm again with sustained winds of 35 knots. Matthew still moving just east of north toward the central Louisiana coast. The center is once again exposed and the weather remains to the east of the center.

Saturday 11AM Update:
Matthew is now a Tropical Depression moving to the NNE at 10mph - caught up in the low-level southerly flow ahead of a strong front - so much for the earlier analysis (see below). He is heading for the central Louisiana coast within 24 hours with most of the rain expected to the east of the landfall area. One for the global models - they nailed this one.

Original Post:
Matthew is barely surviving this morning and the TS rating is certainly generous. The cyclone is currently under about 30 knots of west to southwest wind shear and the convection is to the northeast of the center. The shear is expected to decrease to about 20 knots on Monday, however I doubt that Matthew can regain tropical storm strength again. The official forecast moves the storm to the northeast and north northeast around a cutoff upper level low - but the low is forecast to develop over southeast Colorado and the Texas panhandle - and that is a long way from the storm. Upper level winds along the northern Gulf coast are still expected to remain southwesterly - even westerly - so I'm still having my doubts about the anticipated eventual turn to the north. Matthew will likely remain a TD for the remainder of its existence and move northeast toward the north Florida coast.

Invest 96L south of Bermuda is also encountering strong southerly shear with convection removed well to the north of the well defined low level circulation center - looking very subtropical at the moment. Still some chance for additional development when the shear weakens in about two days.

The remainder of the basin remains quiet with nothing on the immediate horizon.
ED

Event Related Links
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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33821 - Sat Oct 09 2004 10:19 AM

Thanks for the new thread Ed! Looks like this may turn out only to be a wet weekend.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33822 - Sat Oct 09 2004 10:52 AM

Echoing Coop, thanks for the new thread, Ed.

Haven't had time to check any models or other sites, have to work (no computer access) again today, then I'm outta here till Monday.

Sounds like Matthew es jist guoing tew kause sum reign. (those who know get it).

Everybody stay safe, I hope all Matthew provides is some rain, no winds...and I hope the thing south of Bermuda doesn't spin up...although if its (Noelle???) target is the EC, anywhere north of FL can probably handle it, unlike our comrades in the GOM who were pummelled by Ivan, and FL EC by Jeanne.

Enjoy the long weekend, all you Colombians

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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andy1tom(me)
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: LI Phil]
      #33824 - Sat Oct 09 2004 12:53 PM

you are too funny phil..just what i want is a rainy weekend with good football on. life is good with no canes in the picture for a seminole fan. thought i was logged in??

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Matthew and rain... [Re: andy1tom(me)]
      #33826 - Sat Oct 09 2004 02:54 PM

I think the city's up to about 4.5". It's still too tough to say whether or not we're going to get in on tonight's rainshield or not. Until then, it's drizzly mid 70's and not a bad day at all (if you like tropical weather).

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 09:04 AM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: Matthew making a last run [Re: Steve]
      #33827 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:08 PM

based on recon...and sats....i think matthew may make TS by 5 tonight... there is strong shear, but appears a little weaker in last few hrs. pressure from recon that is out there now, is around 1000mb...lowest i've seen is 999mb...the CDO looks to have moved back over center...winds still around 35mph
thinking around 45mph at landfall

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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FireAng
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33828 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:29 PM

What's your thoughts on the thing near Bermuda? We are getting away free from Mathew...whew..... but should we be concerned about that one near Bermuda here in Central Florida?
Thanks!!
Angie


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anony
Unregistered




Re: Matthew making a last run [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #33831 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:44 PM

997 latest and 40 kt FL, 35 kt surface, CDO and center colocated= TS at 5pm unless NHC is out to lunch...seems to have slowed down and moving more east a tad.

System s of Bermuda getting close...and another spin in BOC to watch and e if Leewards...interesting!

sc


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anony
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: FireAng]
      #33832 - Sat Oct 09 2004 03:45 PM

No worries, Ang.

sc


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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33833 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:01 PM

Yeah, matthew is trying to get organized again. Where he exactly is hard to say, especially with the latest rumor of slowing down, eastward move. Let's see at 5. Thing to watch for the US might be down the road in a week to ten days. GFS has been showing a tropical cyclone down in the western Caribbean for days now in the long range. Other models have been hinting at this as well. Since the western Carib really hasn't been heard from this year, warm waters and lower pressures may cause something to develop down there before the month is out. Disturbance + UL conditions will be required. But as I posted last week, I think another major cane will develop down there the third week of October. So I have kept my plywood up on everything but the front door jst in case. Happy tracking! Cheers!!

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anony
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Steve Hirschb.]
      #33834 - Sat Oct 09 2004 04:55 PM

TD Mattew is TS Matthew again, and TS warnings are posted from Al/Fl border to Intracoastal City, La. 40 mph, 997mb

sc


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Matt033
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33836 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:04 PM

The system near 30 north/62 west is a subtroical storm...Deep convection is forming right over the LLC. The system is becoming more enline with the upper/mid/low levels. Who cares if there is a weak front on it. Many storms have them. The NHC needs to make the upgrade at 11pm or not name Subtropical cyclones at all. Case closed. start Riping me apart for my options.

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: anony]
      #33837 - Sat Oct 09 2004 08:49 PM

Meek Matthew isn't enough to worry me much after Ivan last month, but it does make for a pretty lousy weekend !! I wonder if they are going to change the projected path back toward the east some since he seems to be going almost due east at the moment

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: mbfly]
      #33838 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:05 PM

Excellent point. We will have to wait until the 10pm Advisory to find out which side won- re:ED's earlier post.

Matthew is very close to the Canadian model from last night. The whole 4pm track is with that model. Some of the others may have come around to the current track, but the Canadian was the first.
Word of caution. Some areas have received very heavy rainfall amounts in the last 48 hours. Should the winds increase in your area. Trees will blow over with a lot less wind than you would normally see.
Rapid runoff will cause flash flooding, and the coastal flooding will not allow the creeks, bayous and streams to compensate.


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 117
Loc: Mobile, Alabama 30.64N 88.22W
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: danielw]
      #33839 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:15 PM

Some areas have received very heavy rainfall amounts in the last 48 hours. Should the winds increase in your area. Trees will blow over with a lot less wind than you would normally see.




Yeah........ no kidding -- especially since a LOT of them are still leaning and half out of the ground after Ivan. Fortunately my yard is ok from a tree standpoint, but it wouldn't take much for part of my roof to go !

(off-topic material removed. Post could not be moved because of too many connected follow-on posts)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 13 2004 09:11 AM)


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Matt033
Unregistered




Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: mbfly]
      #33840 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:30 PM

It is now a sub-tropical storm

St2.5/2.5

The front is breaking off from the system.


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Terra
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 286
Loc: Mandeville, LA
Re: Matthew Struggles Against Strong Shear [Re: Matt033]
      #33841 - Sat Oct 09 2004 09:41 PM

Whatever it is now, I wish it would just hurry along and go away. Weather looks nice once it passes!

--------------------
Terra M. Dassau, Ph.D.
(Chemistry, however, so don't think I'm an expert!)


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: Terra]
      #33842 - Sat Oct 09 2004 10:33 PM

May be jumping the gun a little but Matt is cooked. All the convection is far east and north. It does look like the LLC is following the NHC track pretty close so far, just no weather to speak of with it.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #33843 - Sat Oct 09 2004 10:42 PM

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004

STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP REPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW. WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY MAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW CONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING....

....NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD.
AS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE LEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...
AND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG LATE THIS AFTERNOON.



Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 09 2004 10:45 PM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Matthew...stick a fork in him, he's done. [Re: danielw]
      #33844 - Sat Oct 09 2004 10:54 PM

Caught some heavy weather driving to a birthday party around 6ish tonight. It's been breezy with intermittant rain, but it's mostly been a fun storm. I'm hoping that some convection can rebuild when the storm approaches the coast, and I hope that's a bit west of me, though I don't know for sure where landfall will be. If I can get another 3-5" out of Matthew, he'll be one to remember not for the flooding but just for something to trip on during an otherwise boring October weekend.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
He's Not Done Yet ! [Re: Steve]
      #33847 - Sun Oct 10 2004 04:21 AM

Early morning recon has finished their first leg of Matthew.
0538Z Vortex came in with a minimum pressure of 1001mb.
And max flight level winds of 49kts in the NE quadrant.

0545Z Satellite estimates have dropped Matthew to a T1.0/2.0 status.

0745Z satellite imagery showing an area of Thunderstorms from Alexandria to Baton Rouge La. Three other clusters of thunderstorms are visible from the Mouth of the Mississippi River southeastward toward 25N/ 85W.

0804 New Orleans radar indicating the circulation center just south of South Marsh Island and Vermillion Bay.
New Orleans wind profiler data:
1000ft-SE at 25kts
2000ft-SE at 40kts.
----------------------
40,000ft SW at 63kts-shear!

0800Z Buoy observations:
Buras, LA C-MAN Station reporting wind of 120deg at 35kt gusting to 39kts, with a peak gust of 42kts. Pressure 1005.1mb

Late Update: The 5 AM advisory has the 1800Z (1PM CDT-Sunday) position forecast is located between Garyville,LA and the southern most point of Lake Marepas.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 10 2004 04:48 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
SubTropical Storm Nicole forms off Bermuda [Re: danielw]
      #33848 - Sun Oct 10 2004 04:38 AM

0900Z Subtropical Storm Nicole has formed from a Low pressure area in the Western North Atlantic.

At 09Z Nicole was centered near latitude 31.8N and longitude 66.0W. or about 80 miles WSW of Bermuda.
Nicole is moving toward the NNW near 15mph and a mostly northward motion is expected for the next 24hrs.
Max sustained winds are near 45mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24hrs.
Winds of 40mph extend outward up to 345 miles from the center!
Estimated min. pressure is 1000mb.

This is an edited version of the Official TPC/NHC Advisory. Link for Official statement follows.Additional information is located on in the "Forum" section on the left side of the page. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 10 2004 04:51 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3460
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Matthew Spawning Tornadoes [Re: danielw]
      #33849 - Sun Oct 10 2004 06:34 AM

From TWC and the NewOrleans NWS office.
Matthew has generated 2 tornado warnings as of 0523 CDT.
Law enforcement in Golden Meadow, LA ;Lafourche Parish;(just northof Grand Isle) reported a tornado at 0445CDT moving N at 15mph.
Second tornado warning for Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes. This area is just west of the first tornado warning at Golden Meadow.

New Orleans wind profiler now showing winds at 40,000ft from the SW at 99kts. Surface winds from the SE at 35kts.

*Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion saying plenty of spin, 0-1km helicity of 200m2/s2/, "potential for Brief Tornado will exist with most intense surface-based storms".
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2309.html


Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 10 2004 07:01 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2335
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Administrative Notes [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33856 - Sun Oct 10 2004 09:49 AM

If you think that your post may have been removed, check for it in the Storm Forum first - I salvaged a few posts there when others were moved to the proper forum. Please make an attempt to put your post in the proper Forum.
Thanks,
ED


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Sean2
Unregistered




Re: Matthew weakens [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33859 - Sun Oct 10 2004 10:32 AM

10am cdt adv.....matthew has made landfall se la and has been downgraded to TD est. pres.....1001mb....winds 35mph
located 40 miles west of New Orleans.....movement north at 10mph..... 29.9n...90.8w


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Matthew weakens [Re: Sean2]
      #33862 - Sun Oct 10 2004 11:05 AM

New thread for STS Nicole...head over

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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