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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2262
Loc: Melbourne, FL
A Change of Season
      #33930 - Wed Oct 13 2004 10:37 AM

Subtropical Storm Nicole was wrapped into a strong extratropical low pressure system that moved north over Nova Scotia. Invest 97L, well southwest of the Azores, may acquire subtropical characteristics as it moves slowly westward, but is faces increasing wind shear as it does so. The rest of the basin is quiet.

A strong jetstream has closed off the Gulf of Mexico and even a baroclinic hybrid system seems unlikely. The far eastern Atlantic now shows increasing shear, so the Caribbean Sea remains as the only area that could still produce a tropical cyclone - but even that area is benign. Perhaps one more storm before this uncommon season finally ends - perhaps not. For those of us in Florida, the memories of this season will not fade quickly as we continue to repair and rebuild.
ED

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Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33933 - Wed Oct 13 2004 11:32 AM

Thanks for the new thread, Ed.

You said a mouthful, and quite well...I might add.

If the season were to end today (yeah, right), I'd have nailed the # of TS & H's (but got Napoleon'ed on the MHs) of 14/8, unfortunately I went 14/8/3, when it now stands at 14/8/ 6 .

Let's hope this is it...I doubt we won't get at least one more TD or TS, but maybe the hurricane train has been derailed for the rest of 2004. As Ed said, this season ("The Season From Hell") won't fade away, either from memory or reality for a long time...

Peace for now.

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33936 - Wed Oct 13 2004 12:54 PM

Things seemed to have quieted down as the Atlantic has shut off for anything to develop east of 50/60, and the GOM has a deep trough progged to come in Thursday, with a frontal boundary Clearing the FL peninsula Friday! I still think that a major cane will come out of the SW Caribbean before all is said and done for 2004, probably the last week of October. This just based on the pattern and the models hinting at lowering pressure in that area as heights build in the western Atlantic and eastern seaboard during that time frame. Hopefully I'm wrong, and if anything develops it will encounter shear if it tries to come too far north, but there are still some virgin waters down there and conditions at the UL should be favorable for the end of the month as far as I can tell. After that winter should begin to set in across the CONUS. Still waiting for the insurance adjuster to come out. BTW, if you haven't registered for FEMA and had damage or needed to evacuate please register. There is assistance available. I got re-imbursed evacuating during Jeanne. Just save your receipts. Cheers!!

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33939 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:06 PM

Just want to jump in here and make probably the last post regarding to tropical weather for the rest of the season, if Matt was our last tropical assualt. Anyway, shear is on the increase throughout the entire atlantic basin, except for the Caribbean sea, but that still has some wind shear. By now wind shear becomes a very strong limiting factor. The water temps are decreasing and winter seems to be on it's jolly way here; really, it just called me on it's cellphone! Probably see another sub-tropical depression at most, maybe not but even if it did form it wouldn't be a threat to the U.S. Pacific is still on and with that supertyphoon recurving for Japan makes me wonder if we could yet again see another teleconnection with a storm off the east coast, the models seem to be picking up on it. Other than that, I think everything is just fine and dandy in the tropics. Hopefully this will be my last post regarding tropics for your sake and mine.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Keith234]
      #33941 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:17 PM Attachment (439 downloads)

This season has been amazing, but Im glad its almost finally over. It feels like fall to me. By the way, I found an amazing picture from Penscola Beach I believe. A condo that was once 5 stories, only 2 now.

If the above link doesn't work. Try this one.-danielw http://attachments.flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/33941-ivan_13.jpg


Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2004 11:03 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33942 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:19 PM

like phil said, what ed said.
the warm ENSO conditions have begotten faster-than-normal westerlies across most of the basin, and wave energy of any amplitude is shearing off.. while SOI negative backing hasn't coincided with a strong amplification near the east coast to generate a sw caribbean disturbance. things are quiet and the current pattern doesn't favor a significant system threatening the u.s. the circulation in the north atlantic favors north and northeastward-moving systems.
looking out ahead in the models, they are showing something there near the colombian coast out past a week.. though the mid-latitude amplification needed to generate a response down there isn't perking in the models much. there's also another nicole-ish central atlantic feature late next week showing near bermuda. of course 97L is still meandering south of the azores, well outside the threat window for anything in the western atlantic.. but it hasn't transitioned so far and most globals indicate that the broad feature will spin down under increasing shear.
remotely interesting is the convergence near the yucatan, which has a considerable ridge aloft. it hasn't shown any tendency to develop, but it's persistence and location make it worth noting. with the shortwave energy progged to deepen up the east coast on thu/fri to it's north the possibility of a baroclinic jolt exists.
soi remains negative and some activity persists in the eastpac with lester along the mexican coast (and the disturbance to its south which is becoming more organized). another large typhoon should deepen and hook right to the south of japan going into next week. this indicates that the north atlantic shouldn't be limited to only hybrid-type cutoff systems if only a large enough amplification can happen in the eastern u.s.
that's long enough.. the season may be over after all. i wouldn't bet on it myself.
HF 2014z13october


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33944 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:37 PM

In the picture I attached, looks like surge and waves pounded out the bottom 2 stories which weakened the bottom and it collapsed.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: DroopGB31]
      #33945 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:38 PM

Anyone besides me having problems viewing the attachment?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33946 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:43 PM

Sorry Phil, That was my first file I've ever attached. I clicked it myself and it worked.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: DroopGB31]
      #33947 - Wed Oct 13 2004 04:44 PM

No worries, it could very easily be me

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33948 - Wed Oct 13 2004 05:29 PM

Here's some before/after photos from Ivan, etc from USGS
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ivan/photos/

And Jeanne
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/jeanne/photos/index.html


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33953 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:38 PM

Nope..the attachment is not visible..I get an error message. I remember that Phil and myself had trouble a week or so ago with attahcments. I think something happened when the site was rebuilt after the crash in September....but I sure am not a computer whiz.....Anyone have ideas why attachments are not linking properly??

--Lou


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
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Re: A Change of Season [Re: recmod]
      #33954 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:50 PM

It's an issue where attachments are being saved to the wrong server, I'll try to fix it tomorrow.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Attachments [Re: MikeC]
      #33955 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:51 PM

Thanks AGAIN Mike!!!! You da man!

BTW, my new avatar is courtesy of Skeetobite...

All y'all rock!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Oct 13 2004 09:52 PM)


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Attachments [Re: MikeC]
      #33956 - Wed Oct 13 2004 09:55 PM

Thanks Mike...I know you have worked very hard to keep the site operational during this very trying hurricane season. The minor glitch with attachments is very insignificant compared to the vast resource this site provided during critical hurricane events.
CFHC has been THE first website I check every single morning (even before NHC!!), to get the latest tropical information. "Thank You" doesn't begin to convey the appreciation I have for your efforts

--Lou


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 321
Loc: Orlando, FL
OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... [Re: recmod]
      #33957 - Wed Oct 13 2004 10:47 PM

In the final hours before Hurricane Charley hit Central Florida, Susan Kairys-Courech went out and talked to her trees.

"You need to hold onto one another," she warned them. And then she thanked them for all they had given her -- for their shade, their beauty, the home they'd provided to the birds and the squirrels, for the air they had faithfully sweetened season after season for their 18 years together.

When dawn finally came, Kairys-Courech, a 53-year-old Chuluota environmental activist and writer, peeked out a window -- and her heart sank. Thirty of her precious oaks and pines were down, felled by the storm.

"I couldn't even cry," she says. "It hurt too much to see them lying there, uprooted. They were my friends."

The loss, she knows, is not merely aesthetic.

----------- Story above from Orlando newspaper ----------

Wow.. I bet she's glad she didn't talk to her house.



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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Attachments [Re: recmod]
      #33958 - Wed Oct 13 2004 11:05 PM

Coop, Ed, HF, John, Mike, and Phil. A Big Thank You for a job well done. You guys pulled lots of people. "Through the Storms".

I put up a quickfix link for the attachment.
http://attachments.flhurricane.com/cyclone/files/33941-ivan_13.jpg

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2004 11:12 PM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
looks like it's getting a bit of organization [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33960 - Thu Oct 14 2004 01:34 AM

maybe I'm insane, but it looks like the nontropical low
is looking a little more tropical

we'll have to see
ciao!
Mark
(bloody Falcons, losing a game... forsooth!)


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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 226
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.64W
Re: A Change of Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #33961 - Thu Oct 14 2004 01:44 AM

Season is changing here too ... cold front blowing in.

NWS has us under a Special Weather Statement, Severe Weather Statement, Severe Thunderstorm Warning, Flood Watch / Flood Statement

They should save paper and just tell us we're fixin to have a gullywasher!

Which is underway as I type...

BTW... all of y'all involved with this site have done a great job keeping up with everything goin on!

Here's to the quiet end to a bad season

'shana


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: A Change of Season [Re: ShanaTX]
      #33963 - Thu Oct 14 2004 10:24 AM

Hey all,

Thanks for the kind words, but it's really Mike & John who deserve the true thanks...keeping this site up during 4 majors (despite what NHC said about Frances being a II at landfall) was no small feat...in fact 'twas a miracle!

Yep, Texas is fixin for more nastiness, and even up here on Little Ol' Long Island, tomorrow we're 'spected to have gale force winds and torrential rains...

2004 is NOT over yet...I hoping & praying for no more named storms, but we cannot let down our guard just yet.

I hate winter, but I never thought I'd be so happy to have autumn arrive.

Pedro is going to look good in pinstripes next year!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Redbird
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 90
Loc: Central Florida
Re: OT: Before Charlie hit Florida... [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #33966 - Thu Oct 14 2004 05:59 PM

I guess I don't see how talking to trees is any stranger than saying prayers to some old bearded man in the sky......at least the trees can be seen.

Bearded man planted the trees. Maybe she was talking to him too!

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 17 2004 02:53 AM)


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Happy Birthday Rabbit
Weather Master


Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: A Change of Season [Re: LI Phil]
      #33968 - Thu Oct 14 2004 07:12 PM

Otto later??

the old LLC has dissipated and made way for a new one very near the SE edge of the convection
we could see the 15th storm of the season by the weekend


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Numbers... [Re: Rabbit]
      #33969 - Thu Oct 14 2004 07:52 PM

Bugsy,

You need to update your numbers...should be 15/14/8/6 for you... Matthew & Nicole= 13 & 14.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Matt033
Unregistered




Re: Numbers... [Re: LI Phil]
      #33973 - Thu Oct 14 2004 09:17 PM

With that New LLC forming near the southeastern side of the covnection. It is pretty close to becoming Otto.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Matt033]
      #33975 - Fri Oct 15 2004 05:43 AM

NRL keeping 97L as an active area. Satellite branches are no longer giving it numbers, as of 09Z.

Area of thunderstorms has formed of the coast of Veracruz,MX. At 09Z area was centered near 20.5N and 96.0W. Drifting just S of due E over the Bay of Campeche. Convection increased as the system moved offshore, but has now decreased in coverage and intensity. Lightning, visible from satellite imagery, is now confined to a small area in the center. System is moving along the 20degree line toward the Yucatan Peninsula.

09Z buoy observations showing temperatures from 47.7 at Bay St Louis,MS to 81.9 at Sand Key, FL. Dewpoints from 34.7F at Sabine River,TX to a high of 71.4 at the East Gulf Buoy.
Cool temperatures, brisk northwesterly wind and clouds should keep the Gulf of Mexico quiet for a few days or more. Once the cold front pushes through the Southeast, sea water temperatures should begin to drop below levels needed for tropical system development.
Grab a windbreaker and have a nice weekend.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2004
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYSTEM TODAY...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART


Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 15 2004 05:48 AM)


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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered




Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: danielw]
      #33976 - Fri Oct 15 2004 11:28 AM

Agree, this cold front should drop SSTs a couple of degrees. One more cyclone out of the Caribbean this year, then it should be done. Cheers!!

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Steve hirschb.]
      #33977 - Fri Oct 15 2004 02:32 PM

Just want to make a suggestion, if you do make a comment, make sure information is viable, and true. Many people rely on this site. Not trying to bust your chops but please consider this. Thanks!

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Keith234]
      #33978 - Fri Oct 15 2004 02:51 PM

Keith,

I'm not sure to what you are referring. Steveh. was making a couple of observations, both of which may very well turn out to be true (actually, I think he was more agreeing with Danny anyway). There was no attempt to mislead or otherwise put out non-facts. Cold front SHOULD reduce SSTs and hopefully there is ONLY one more storm (and hopefully NONE) from the Carribbean.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Fri Oct 15 2004 02:52 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: LI Phil]
      #33980 - Fri Oct 15 2004 03:23 PM

Yes the cold front should reduce the SST's but not by more then 2 degree's. Water has a high specific heat and doesn't take in or give out heat fast enough for the water temp. to drop more then 2 degree's in a handfull of days. I know 79 is the magic number when it comes to tropical cycone development but tropical storms can still (and do) materlize under the 79 F mark. No worries, okay.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: Keith234]
      #33981 - Fri Oct 15 2004 05:30 PM

it's time for the gulf SSTs to drop below support threshold anyway, as a function of season. keith, the upper pattern that develops around the gulf this late in the season acts to kill whatever leftover chances of development there are from marginal SSTs.. if you don't believe me go check the archive data and see how many tropical cyclones form in the gulf after october 15th.
97L still looking nearly subtropical, but progged to become less distinct over time as a complex of other lows develops nearby in the upper trough.
lower BOC activity very depressed.. atypical for a feature like that to spawn anything this late in the year.
globals still hinting at central atlantic cyclogenesis (tropical or non, who can say). late in the period GFS thinks a low should develop in the sw caribbean, due to pattern. all this makes me think one more storm this month if anything at all.
westpac activity still blasting away, eastpac disturbances still active.. there ought to be another shot or two this season, but the really bad things from earlier likely ended with jeanne's departure.
HF 2125z15october


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Weekend Weather!! Not Whether [Re: HanKFranK]
      #33984 - Sat Oct 16 2004 09:13 AM

Its cool this morning in sunny central Florida. Its hard to tell that we have had 3 major hurricanes bulls-eye this area, except for the loose shingles still in the streets and the never ending piles of dead debris, from lawns. I suppose that the city trash collecting service is still working on the big stuff like acres and acres of tree trunks. Talk about lower furniture prices!
I am going to miss summer. It was exciing and scary and my favorite time of year. I do not think we will see any more tropical storms or depressions. But, I wonder about winter storms. Will they be severe as well? Does anyone here have an opinion?

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
Re: N of Panama [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #33998 - Sun Oct 17 2004 12:25 PM

Outflow, twist??

sc


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Storm Cooper
Moderator


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Re: N of Panama [Re: summercyclone]
      #33999 - Sun Oct 17 2004 12:32 PM

It looks cool but I would not get too excited about it. It does however have some model support.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2

Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Oct 17 2004 12:36 PM)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: N of Panama [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34000 - Sun Oct 17 2004 03:20 PM

The model's have something developing from the strong jet streak in the mid-west and propogating eastward and then developing once in the Atlantic. With all this excessive jet stream energy, and the wind shear I think this will be a strong ULL that get's pulled out to sea, with all this Canadian maritime blocking going on. The reason why I metion this is because there's really nothing else to talk about.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
Re: N of Panama [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34002 - Mon Oct 18 2004 08:30 AM

The area of convection that moved off Colombia and is now north of Panama is moving NW and has a certain look to it this morning on IR4. It probably won't look like much by tonite but who knows; after all it is in the right area at the right time. I just feel that we will see one more named storm before the season is finished. The quiet cool time sure is nice.
Hurric


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: N of Panama [Re: Hurric]
      #34003 - Mon Oct 18 2004 01:59 PM

What's the action off eastern Cuba at the end of the GFS loop? Tropical...but would be quite unusual for that location this late in season?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Forgot link [Re: Ed in Va]
      #34004 - Mon Oct 18 2004 02:12 PM

Forgot link:

http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Recapitulate of Weather [Re: Ed in Va]
      #34006 - Mon Oct 18 2004 05:41 PM

I see that as probably the last named storm of the season, which there are two ways for it to get there.
1.The troughs seem to "breaking off" at the bottom and being left behind, as a general trend indicated by the GFS ensembles. If there is a strong enough ridge in place, then they're will be sufficient change in amplitude of the trough, which will therefore allow it to "break off" at the bottom at mingle and possibly develop.
2. A area of low-pressure breaks off from the monsoon-type trough over northern South America and develops, slowly but surely; pretty much the same way Matt formed.
Those are the two ways that I think the next named storm will form if any does, I don't think we will have anymore CV systems, they won't be able to get past the TUTT's out there in there in the open Atlantic.

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Clark
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October activity [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34007 - Mon Oct 18 2004 06:40 PM

The basin isn't terribly active, but there are a couple of things to watch. Nothing out near Africa, however, so for those of you with the METEOSAT-7 bookmarks in plain view...I think it's safe to say you can put those away for this season.

First feature of note is a small mid/upper low just east of the islands at about 12 N and 55 W. It's nothing much right now, but it cut off from the main flow and, if it were to work its way down to the surface (effectively cutting off the self-inflicted shear going on right now), something could develop. Not terribly likely, but not unlikely either. Several days away from development at the least, if at all.

Convection in the SW Caribbean has subsided for now. There is very little organization to the activity and it is nearing a region of higher shear just to its north, so further development is not likely. However, any time something perks up down there this time of year, it must be watched. The boundary just to its north is stalling and could provide something to watch, but that's just storm mongering at this point. None of the above scenarios has a great shot at developing, though the one in the previous paragraph probably has the greatest shot.

We've also got a weak boundary that should enter the Gulf in the next couple of days. It's not projected to stick around very long -- and with the current pattern, it will be weak and won't have any sort of impetus to move it south -- but bears watching nonetheless.

With time, the odds are dropping off like a rock of another storm -- at least insofar as climatology would suggest. We probably won't see another storm of truly tropical origins this season; instead, anything that develops is likely to be the result of an upper low working its way to the surface or an old frontal boundary stalling out and spinning up a warm-core low. Another storm this year is probably likely; it just won't be for a few days. Let's just hope the overall pattern has changed by then from what it is likely to be in the short-term, lest the Florida coast be in danger once again. Anything that gets past the trough over Cuba right now would be left in a region of weak steering currents...and/or accelerated towards Florida.

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Keith234
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Re: October activity [Re: Clark]
      #34008 - Mon Oct 18 2004 06:56 PM

I'm not seeing anything, developing for now at least...most of the energy seem's to be confined to the jet stream as angular momentum. I feel the system before the leeward islands has a chance for developing but again there's not just not enough latent heat materilizing. The GOM is pretty much closed off for development as strong level winds have surfaced.
On a different note, the overall amplitude in the Rosby waves is apparently decreasing, leading up to some strong trough come in the picture about 10 days from now; that's my rule at least...with the teleconnection pattern and the high latitude blocking, look for something to pop up off the Florida coast. Could there be a Halloween storm?

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James88
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Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34010 - Tue Oct 19 2004 11:59 AM

A Halloween storm? That would be interesting. They don't happen that all that frequently, it seems that it happens about half of the time. In the last 10 years, 5 seasons did not have an active system on Oct 31st. They are 2003, 2000, 1997, 1996 and 1994.

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LONNY307
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Re: October activity [Re: James88]
      #34011 - Tue Oct 19 2004 01:07 PM

98L is looking interesting east of the islands. Any model input on it?

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Storm Cooper
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Re: October activity [Re: LONNY307]
      #34012 - Tue Oct 19 2004 01:56 PM

Some...

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/

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Keith234
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Re: October activity [Re: James88]
      #34013 - Tue Oct 19 2004 02:39 PM

I don't mean a purely tropical system, most likely some form of a hybrid system. BTW, Storm Copper the link doesn't work for me, anyone else?

Just checked it and it worked. The site is slow to load.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Oct 19 2004 02:41 PM)


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Steve hirschb.
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Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34014 - Tue Oct 19 2004 02:55 PM

Interesting that the BAMM keeps it at a fairly low latitude and tracks it westward. We'll see. It's future (if it has a present or future) may hinge on the development of the Bomb predicted off the east coast and whether it gets entrained therein or stays to the SW far enough. But then again the stated position 15.6N/58W is 120 hours out. Cheers!!

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HanKFranK
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Re: October activity [Re: Keith234]
      #34015 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:02 PM

??keith i'm not sure how something below 15N is going to be a hybrid system??
anyhow, invest 98L poking up east of the antilles.. heaviest convection out near 45w, weak cyclonic turning at different heights between 50-55w.. all centered around 12-15N. like clark said, SLOW on the uptake if anything can get going.. the whole system should trudge wnw under mild to moderate shear. GFS still trying to develop a low near the sw caribbean in a few days, but taking it west into central america now. still plenty of westpac activity, but that hasn't correllated to upstream activity very well.. works much better in the late summer.
don't think any surprises on the way this week.. if things happen the should be gradual and undramatic.
HF 1859z19october


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Steve
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Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34017 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:51 PM

Time to look back on my forecast and see what happened.


>>...Ill stay with the flow and guess that well see about 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 Intense Hurricanes.

Far too low.

>>Based on everything Im looking at, it looks as though any trend toward a quiet Gulf year will be again interrupted in 2004...Factoring in some of the analog years seems to indicate a better than average chance for a strong hit on Texas and/or NW Florida.

That was 50/50 (NW FL paid).

Landfall forecast areas:

>>Brownsville, TX to Lafayette, LA = 2 named storm hits and potentially a strong to major hurricane hit.

Wrongo. 1 Tropical storm hit.

>>Lafayette, LA to Pascagoula, MS = 1-2 hits, most likely weaker systems (e.g. Tropical Storms)

Right. 1 storm hit (Matthew)

>>MS/AL line to Cedar Key, FL = 2 named storm hits with the potential for a strong to intense storm between Panama City Beach, FL and Mobile Bay, AL. It should be noted that areas north of there in Southern Georgia are currently experiencing drought conditions. One of the ways out of droughts is through the influx of tropical moisture. However, the drought conditions there are not considered severe at this time.

Good job by me there. We had two (actually 3 with Bonnie) systems go up through that area. The call of a potentially severe storm between Mobile Bay and PCB was pretty good if I don't mind an extra pat on my own back.

>>West Coast of Florida south of Cedar Key = potential for 1 tropical storm or weaker (Cat 1) Hurricane. No definite hit predicted.

Lots of pass-thru activity. Charley had a fairly rare track for the time of year. He was a big-ticket item.

>>FL Keys = Impossible to predict. Based on the NHCs probability tables for active storms (a storm passes within 65 miles of a specific area), one would expect the keys to see a brush by.

Charley blew up between the Keys and SW FL.

>>Homestead, FL to Duval County, FL = Possible impact from a hurricane cutting west beneath anticipated ridging off the SE Coast. No specific hits predicted.

Way off here. I got the "cutting west" part right, but who knew that we'd see serious impacts from two strong hurricanes?

>>GA & SC Coasts = No hits predicted. Possible impacts from Gulf systems coming up from the South.

We definitely had that but we also had Gaston in SC.

>>NC Coast You can never discount coastal North Carolina as it, along with FL and SE LA seems to be at least brushed every year by a system. I dont see any early direct hits but depending on the evolution of the late summer to early fall, its possible that we could see some coastal impact on the Outer Banks. I do expect there will be several fish spinners during low tide of the Atlantic Ridge. This will most likely provide good surfing at different points during the hurricane season.

Alex sort of fits this bill.

>>Virginia Coast to Delmarva Peninsula = No anticipated landfalls. Possible impact from storms coming up from the SW.

Got that pretty good.

>>New Jersey = No anticipated landfalls.

Check

>>Long Island through coastal Maine = Potential late season impact if the warm waters off the NC Coast remain intact for most of the summer. Impact could be from phasing later in the season or from a hurricane curving out to sea and clipping the Cape in MA.

Got the curving out TS in Hermine and some other effects from inland storms recurving

>>Canadian Maritimes = 2 anticipated landfalls. Because of late season blocks, its possible that any system off the east coast of the United States will move N or NNE on its way to distribute heat from the tropics to the north. Bear in mind that the Maritimes extend east to 53W and provide an easy target for a north moving or late curving storm.

A little light there. We had effects from a few storms in the Maritimes, but there was only one real impact (Nicole)
----------------------------------------------------
I think this was my worst landfall forecast BY FAR in the 3 years I've been doing them. It warrants probably a solid "C", but that ain't good enough especially after the success in 2001 and 2002. I'll try harder next year to come up with better ideas.

Steve

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Keith234
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Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34018 - Tue Oct 19 2004 03:52 PM

I think there has been some confusion with what I am talking about. The storm that I was metioning was a system quote "popping off the Florida coast" I said this because the PNA is strongly postive and not allowing any strong or sharp trof's digging in, this will eventually break when the the Jet stream fronts build up enough and form some feature will come southward with that strong high forming over the northeast and develop off the Florida coast as a hybrid storm. The cold high will develop probably when that NW jet develops and pulls cold air down to the mid-latidues from the Alaska region. Sorry for the misunderstanding.

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LI Phil
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October Over? [Re: Keith234]
      #34021 - Tue Oct 19 2004 09:42 PM

Unless and until such time as the WPAC season shuts down (which it ain't doing right now), and with memories of Michelle in 2001 & Mitch in 1998, I'm not ready to start penning any epitaphs for 2004 just yet.

Steve, if the season were to end today, I'd give you better than a "C". One off on named storms, bam on hurricanes, and we all got clobbered on the Majors...the Great Dr. Gray included.

All's good right now, but it wouldn't surprise me to have a little October surprise pop up off the FL coast next week.
Nothing has been "as usual" this summer/fall.
Keep your eyes to the skies, folks...nothing is over until John Belushi says it's over!

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Oct 19 2004 10:10 PM)


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Steve
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Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34022 - Wed Oct 20 2004 12:02 AM

I'm not writing off the season. I expect the Caribbean will get hit, and there's always the possibility of a hybrid to hit FL even well into November. But for the most part, I think the rest of the United States is pretty much out the woods. There's also the slight chance of a southern forming winter storm early too that could take on quasi-tropical characteristics. We'll just have to wait and see.

Steve

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ShanaTX
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Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34023 - Wed Oct 20 2004 12:21 AM

Quote:

Keep your eyes to the skies, folks...nothing is over until John Belushi says it's over!




If I saw John Belushi ... and he told me it was over... I don't think i'd think he was talkin about hurricanes...

But truly... i hope the rest of the season is as quiet as this last bit has been.

Enough is enough.

'shana
waiting for Fall to reappear ... 95F is too hot for this late in October...

--------------------
"If the pen is mightier than the sword and a picture is worth a thousand words, is a camera a weapon of mass destruction? "


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MoparMitch
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Re: October Over? [Re: ShanaTX]
      #34024 - Wed Oct 20 2004 10:06 AM

New 98L I do not think it will do much, as the westerlies are strong.

I hope the season ends like this, nothing but fish spinners

Mitch...


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James88
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Re: October Over? [Re: MoparMitch]
      #34032 - Thu Oct 21 2004 03:19 PM

It's probably not going to do much, but check out the flare-up of thunderstorms over the east Caribbean. They now cover a pretty extensive area.

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LI Phil
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Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34034 - Thu Oct 21 2004 06:13 PM

Shear monsta will take care of any possible development of the convection in the Caribbean.

However, conditions are forecasted to improve development chances in the coming week-10 days. JB thinks we may need to watch the Atlantic as well as the Caribbean.

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James88
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Re: October Over? [Re: LI Phil]
      #34035 - Thu Oct 21 2004 06:35 PM

Sounds like things may heat up soon then. The last gasp of the season.

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GuppieGrouper
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Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34036 - Thu Oct 21 2004 07:04 PM

Just for fun, I ran the loop of the Caribbean backwards and of course, it looked like a huge low was forming! But it is weird how right now if you run it backwards it looks like the weather at the beginning of the season, sort of.

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Keith234
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Re: October Over? [Re: James88]
      #34044 - Fri Oct 22 2004 09:07 PM

Well we may have one more system come into play if that pulse empties out into the atlatic, that is now present in the pacific. It seems as though that when there is a strongly negaive PNA, there is a oscillatory motion of the atmospher present; are correlated in some way? But with that trof diving in ahead of all that convection, a whole lotta nothing is going to happen at least for the upcoming days...but it will place a weak frontal boundary that will be presistent, maybe we could get some late season develop there.

--------------------
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Wxwatcher2
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Re: October activity [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34050 - Fri Oct 22 2004 10:12 PM

Ok, who turned the storm making machine off?

It's so nice to have a quiet October.


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James88
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Re: October activity [Re: Wxwatcher2]
      #34056 - Sat Oct 23 2004 02:17 PM

The area of disturbed weather to the NW of Bermuda is looking interesting:-

Atlantic


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James88
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Otto? [Re: James88]
      #34057 - Sat Oct 23 2004 04:11 PM

Well, the system is now listed as 99L, so we may have Otto pretty soon.

99L


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Keith234
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Re: Otto? [Re: James88]
      #34058 - Sat Oct 23 2004 05:09 PM

That won't be affecting anyone except some shipping interests but looks very powerful...has more tropical characteristics then subtropical.

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LI Phil
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Re: Otto? [Re: Keith234]
      #34060 - Sat Oct 23 2004 06:16 PM

That system caught my eye a few days ago, largely due to JB's early week rants that we might have a big off shore nor'easter this weekend. Well, he nailed the storm, but not the locale.

It's still producing some serious gusts (more than 45+ sustained, with 60+ gusts); I am reticent to think NHC will give it a classification, since it's almost purely subtropical at best, more of a gale center. I'd say 30-70 against Otto, but, this being the season from hell, who knows?

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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