MapMaster
Unregistered
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Well, look at that! It was in the central Carib yesterday, and today it is just off of Nicaragua, looking healthy...healthier than yesterday. If this were May/June, who knows?....interesting, none the less, looks like the disturbed weather is being induced by difluence linked to the frontal trough to the north.
MM
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Initial Outlook for the 2005 Season has been posted in the Storm Forum ... and just a reminder to make an effort to post comments in the proper Forums.
Thanks,
ED
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Slow in getting around here, but alas....been rather busy these past few weeks! Really like the new layout to the site, very snazzy. I was out in San Diego for awhile at the national AMS conference -- not much tropical, but there was still one session during the week on tropical cyclones, the tropical cyclone season in review, as well as the opportunity to talk with a lot of the big names in the field.
You all will be interested to know that yes, the forecasters at the do, from time to time, check out these fan sites. Sometimes, they are right along with what we are saying, wave mongering and all. Other times, they want to rip their hair out at some of the things said! So yes, it goes both ways. Also, the has seen many of the cartoons highlighting this season and even included a couple in the 2004 season in review.
That presentation, which I saw once in San Diego and again in more depth here at just two days ago, highlighted several things of interest. One, they showed the model output for , highlighting the mechanism -- small circulation/eye size -- for such a small storm surge through the region. They really likened that storm to a tornado vortex. Its intensification near shore is still up for debate, but one theory includes jet streak interactions. The "return of " is still a subject of debate, but they are pretty well convinced that yes, it was , but that yes, there will always be room for debate. The evolution of Lisa was also brought up and they believe that had it and the vortex behind it -- Jack Beven called it "Lisa Prime" -- had a bit more space, we would've seen another storm out there. As it was, without more data in the storm's environment, the decision was made to stick with Lisa. The consensus models were the best ones this year, with the Superensemble taking the title of "best model" this year for both intensity and storm track.
Everyone that I've met has been very approachable and very knowledgeable. Max Mayfield is very personable and affable, but a very busy person. Jack Beven is an interesting character and seems to be a storm tracker at heart. Lixion Avila -- yeah, definitely a character, a good "philosophist," and an interesting story teller! I've also met others outside the , such as Chris Landsea (who's career path I very much envy). In many cases, despite being in grad school now and being able to call myself a meteorologist, I'm still in awe of some of these people and the work they do.
Alas, that about does it. Not much out there -- we've seen a WPac storm come and go, and really, that's going to be about it for the Northern Hemisphere for awhile. It's nice, to tell the truth. And come June, I'll be there with all of the forecasters at the in hoping for a busy season with every last storm spinning up only the fish. Until next time...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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For mostly our PC/PCB peeps:
www.wjhg.com/weather
Look to the right for JK's weather blog & click.... hopefully this will be like a home grown "JB" right here in town! Interesting now and can't wait for the info during the season 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Great info Clark; I always thought the guys lurked on this site...where else could they get the best analysis (LOL).
Great look to this site..looking forward to the upcoming season.
Happy and safe New Year EDS
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doug
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Word up to the rest of you suckaz. We didn't have the most exciting of storm seasons in 2004, but I did get to stay home while my wife and kids evacuated to Memphis for .
I read Ed's thread a few weeks ago and it looks like the concensus opinion is that 2005 might be a slightly above-average year with a shot for a few more US landfalls. Good deal. I hate the boring curvature years. I'll get my reserach done in May and try to throw something together for the upcoming season around then.
L8R,
Steve
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jan 30 2005 01:14 AM)
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Luis Martinez
Registered User
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Hi my friends I am Cycloneye=Luis and I am back after a few weeks absent here because my PC burned but now I have a new one.I am ready to discuss all about the 2005 season but my initial numbers are 12/7/3.I will do a final forecast by april.But I dont know what happened that my username is my real name and not Cycloneye.
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My 2005 forecast numbers=12/7/3
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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From the 'About ' Page:
"What this is all about is tracking storms, warning folks, and preventing injuries and deaths that would otherwise be catastrophic. These storms are one of nature's most marveling displays of power and anyone in a path of a major hurricane must take proper precautions."
One of the purposes of this site is to provide sound advise to others regarding the dangers associated with a landfalling hurricane, along with the common sense precautions that should be taken. Any post that makes jest of this danger defeats one of the prime purposes of the site and has no place on the site. My tolerance for this type of post is very low - always has been and always will be.
The excitement that you feel when a dangerous storm approaches is normal - because of your avid interest in weather and your desire to learn more about the forces of nature. However, use some caution when you post, because many others will read the post and some may get a false sense of security if you do not choose your words wisely. Even a Cat I Hurricane is dangerous and can kill people - and usually it happens to those that do not take heed to the precautions that are made before the storm strikes.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Administrator
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Lysis
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While I completly agree with the above statment, I think that when you look at hurricanes as I do --as a natural process of the earth --things become a bit easier to live with. While I can name several hundred people right now who never want to hear the word 'hurricane' again, ultimatly, this is somthing that comes with life in Florida. Every mile of Florida has seen the eye of some hurricane. I am not the type of person who gets dissapointed if I dont hit by a cyclone in any given season (one or two waterspouts will do me in just fine), however if one is comming, I accept its reality and anticipate the worst. My family has hurricane partys with the passage of every storm to grace us, and we celibrate the end of the season. It is stressfull, but it somthing that every Floridian lives with. In the end, I believe that no one should pray for a major hurricane (which is essentially praying for the deaths that will inevitably occur), yet when one does threaten, simply accept the fact that hurricanes can and will make landfall in your area, and, if you can, try and enjoy the excitment of the moment. Dont think that it is unfair, or unjust, or that you did anything wrong to deserve it. Florida bears the brunt of earths air-conditioning system, and we need to find some way to live with this --or move. I have had several friends move this season, and they have every right to. Actually, if we get hit like we did last year, and the real estate market colapses, I may have to move myself. Given my love of weather though, I will proabably be the last to go.
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cheers
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Who would like the honors?...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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Of what? I dont think that I said anything wrong. I in no way, want to create a false sense of security. Believe me, I know full well the dangers of a hurricane (proabably better than most people here). What I am trying to do is quite the opposite, actually. I was simply pointing out that tropical cyclones are a natural occurance, and people often time forget that. Rightly so, everyone in Punta Gorda (as well as all of Florida I imagine) --including myself, began to take it personally this season. You will see the effects of a hurricane if you live in Florida. This is a fact. I just think that we need to accept this, and be prepared for it. The main problem with hurricane prepardness today, is a lack of hurricane education. This is why I posted my "Hurricane in Pictures" thread. When was done, all I could talk about was how amazing it was. Then I looked down the street, and saw a woman screaming in response to her destroyed house, as her husband looked on helplessly. I saw this look alot that month. I dont want anyone to have to go through that. I think that every elementary school in the state of Florida, should study these storms in depth. Miraculously, only four people died in Charlotte County during hurricane . I talked to Wayne Sallade, our emergency manager, and he was amazed that the casualties were not higher. Indeed, it is amazing what some people survived. While four deaths is a good statistic, try telling that to the families of those who died. It is even more heart-wrenching when we consider that none of them had to die. Two older people stayed in their mobile home which was destroyed, a man bled to death when the sliding glass door that he was holding up shattered, and a man was beheaded while standing outside after the eye had passed. I could have very well been one of those casualties. There is a large two story house a couple houses down from me. When its roof went, all the shingles sliced up the neighborhood. My dad and I got out of the way the instant one of the shingles broke through door. This thing was moving so fast that it actually penetrated a 2X4 up against the door –the door itself –and a window on the other side of the house. It was hugging the wall as it flew by, creating a huge gash through the plaster, marking its path. If we had not moved a mere 20 seconds earlier, someone would have probably died. My point is, we need to focus more on hurricane education. There is no reason for anyone to get caught out in the eye anymore. I know one family that, upon evacuating, insisted they open up all their windows so that the wind would harmlessly blow through the house. They lost their roof. Mistakes like this need not be made. While it is true, we shoudl never hope for a hurricane to come, we need to be ready when it does. Because it will. And the only people that deserve to die in a hurricane, are idiots like myself. This is all that I am saying.
Edited by Lysis (Tue Feb 01 2005 02:55 PM)
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LI Phil
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After discussion with another moderator, it has been determined that your prior post is fine, and your follow up post is well taken. When I see the words "hurricane partys", I am instantly reminded of the (now debunked) hurricane party which supposedly took place at the Richelieu Apartments during Camille. We all know how that turned out. If you are told to evacuate and you do not do so, you do so at your own peril...to "glorify" staying and not being killed serves no purpose on these boards; in fact, your stories just may inspire others to stay when they should leave, and you could be putting other lives in jeopardy.
If you want to speak of the horrors of living through the eye, that's fine. We want everyone to know how dangerous these monsters are. But if you want to "brag" about how great that experience was and sort of hope to go thru it again, then you can take those sentiments to another board.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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hmmm...I diddnt know that infamouse party was debunked. But I see what you mean about party. Let me clarify: we celibrate the passage of the season.
But if you want to "brag" about how great that experience was and sort of hope to go thru it again, then you can take those sentiments to another board.
Is this how I came off? Looking back I suppose that I have been more than a little proud of my experiences. I remember a quote from Issac's Storm in which the author talks about how, with time, the waves get bigger and the winds faster with each story. I think invariably, everyone thinks that they are invincible until they meet death in the face. Pride comes before the fall I guess. I must admit that any and all feelings of excitment that procede a hurricane are quickly vanquished once things really get started. Bottom line is, if you are told to evaquate, heed the warning --it will save your life. My greatest fear is that of storm surge. In , I was scared to the point of throwing up. To be honost, I did not want it to last. It is not fun, and I wonder myself what continues to fuel my facination. Hurricanes are the most terrible disasters on the face of the planet, and I should have conveyed these feelings in my pictorial. My purpose here is to help educate those in need. I dont want others to have to experience what I, and so many other familes have in the past.
http://photos2.flickr.com/3656070_23476cf880.jpg
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cheers
Edited by Lysis (Tue Feb 01 2005 05:47 PM)
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LI Phil
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>>> I remember a quote from Issac's Storm
Yes, the poor people in Galveston learned a lesson didn't they?
Regarding your posts, as long as you're in agreement with the purpose of this board, which is to provide accurate and up-to-date information among other things, you may freely regale us with your hurricane experiences...they should not go in the main forum, however.
This past summer, this board's ultimate wishcaster (ya'll know of whom I speak) damn near got his wish with . Well, he tied up his boat as best as he could and he bolted well inland. I doubt very highly he'll ever, even jokingly, call for every cloud in the GOM a CAT V heading straight for Mobile.
Thank you for sharing your expriences and your personal accounts & photos of are not only welcome, but educational as well.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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The pic this morning sure looks like it....about 27N, 39 W...take a look....
MM
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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I see a rotation on the loop. Very Interesting.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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indeed. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG
EDIT: url/
Edited by Lysis (Thu Feb 03 2005 02:45 PM)
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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No STS developing here folks...NHC would mention it in the discussion. Here is what they say about this area of low pressure.
"989 MB DEEP-LAYERED LOW REMAINS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N59W...330 MILES ESE OF BERMUDA. THIS CUTOFF LOW HAS BEEN CHURNING UP THE ATLANTIC FOR DAYS WITH GALES PRESENT OVER A LARGE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IS ALSO OCCURRING DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVE SLOW MOTION OF THE LOW WITH SWELLS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 20 FT IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC."
So big waves and gales, but nothing tropical or subtropical.
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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or so they say....
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cheers
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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that's still miles away from anything subtropical. no central convection, frontal style band well away to the east.. huge dry air slot to the west. nope, i don't think we'll call it just yet.
HF 0427z04february
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