MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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This year Dr. William Gray and Colorado State University Have continued the active trend of last year into this year. With 13 Named Storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
The full numbers can be seen on the link here
Dr. Gray doesn't predict landfall, and can't. Although with these numbers, we may be seeing again a very active year. Time will tell.
Also, if you haven't seen it yet, check out Jeffrey McElroy's Hurricane Videos
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
SST Forecast
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, ,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Well your first paragraph leads the reader to believe the numbers are 11/6/3. The update shows 13/7/3. Just thought I'd clarify that 
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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hopefully florida and other areas will be spared from landfall
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Well your first paragraph leads the reader to believe the numbers are 11/6/3. The update shows 13/7/3. Just thought I'd clarify that
The "11/6/3" numbers were from Dr Grays' December update.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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I spent a bit of time today reading through Dr. Gray's report. It's pretty interesting. Amazing that some of it is actually making sense-thanks to you all!!
The report mentioned that the numbers will most likely be increased again in May and August. I know these are just predictions and it is easier to predict as the time comes near, but has he normally increased his numbers in past years?
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When it rains, it pours...
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Lysis
User
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Posts: 451
Loc: Hong Kong
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As a rule, I don't think he ever increases his numbers by more than one this far out. Nothing is really set in stone now, and it is far too early to jump to any conclusions.
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cheers
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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No jumping to conclusions here. Just wasn't sure what to make of the report and saying they anticipated further increases. I agree that it would be too early to tell-so I figure it must be standard procedure to revise the numbers periodically and they probably say that every year.
I don't want to be caught off guard this year, though had lots of practice last year. I know where to come for the scoop  , but know a lot of people that were caught off guard with each and every storm last season and will probably be again this year. Stubborness, I suppose.
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When it rains, it pours...
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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If you get time. Look back at Dr Gray's forecast verification for 2004. I used his verification tables from 1999-2004, and he Never jumps more than 1, from the December to April forecasts. However, for some reason, this April he has added 2 to the forecast. I haven't finished reading on his parameters yet, but I'm sure he has a scientific reason.
LIPhil had the same notion. As he posted the same numbers as Dr Gray.
With that said, it's still way to early in the 'game' to predict the exact number of storms. Just start planning Now and Hope that none of us have to utilize our planning.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yay Server's back up finally! Sorry for all the downtime folks.
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Great to see the board back.Fortunatly the downtime occured in a non active time for the forum as the season has not arrived.
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Steve hirschb.
Unregistered
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Well, just saw JBs video on the PC site. You can take it for what its worth, but he foresees higher land fall probablilities (but not as high as last year), but says Florida will be in the crossfire again  Hope this year will be a quiet one. I'm still waiting for shingles to arrive 
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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Told ya that New Orleans was gonna have a quiet Cane Season!! 
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Displaced Cajun
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Don`t count your craw dads until they`re cooked
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Look's like something is tring to brew early again this year.The lower circulation could be seen below the cloud cover earlier.Whether it makes it warm core and to the surface is another question.Then all we have to do is look at Ana last year a very similiar situation.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmhx.shtml
Edited by javlin (Thu Apr 14 2005 11:31 PM)
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MapMaster
Unregistered
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Looks like you are onto something Jav!
MM
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The following are forecasts from earlier today. At this time they are from 7.5 to 13.5 hours old. The new models aren't in yet.
4 of the 5 models take the Low off of The Carolinas into the Atlantic over the next 3 days.(12Z-Sunday)
None of the above forecast models are indicating the Low will deepen beyound 1000mbs. I believe it was lower than 1000mbs last weekend when crossing the Western Plains.
I will try to post the model update when it becomes available later tonight.
The Weather Channel is giving updates on the Low at the present time.
CMCGLB: 2005041412Z FCST-Shallow, symetrical warm core
GFS: 2005041418Z Fcst- Shallow, symetrical warm core
MM5-AF: 2005041418Z Fcst-Shallow, symetrical warm core
NGP: 2005041412Z Fcst-Deep, symetrical Cold core
UKMET: 2005041412Z Fcst-Shallow, symetrical warm core
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Mitch
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 12
Loc: Merritt Island, FL
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Fyi...for anyone in my area - Central Brevard Co., FL I added a home weather station (Davis Vantage Pro2 wireless) in December. If we have any storms threatening this year, you can check out my info. I am still working on the web sites as I just figured out how to make custom pages from the XML data. One web page is updated every 5 minutes and the other every several seconds. Here is the main link...
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 14 APR 2005
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 85W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER BUILDING THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRES S OF 21N. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS FLORIDA AND E OF THE CAROLINA COAST . THIS SYSTEM IS LINKED TO A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CHARLESTON SC AND BROAD TROUGHING REACHING DOWN TO S FLORIDA. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS SRN GA/AL/MS/ THE FL PANHANDLE/ AND THE NE GULF WATERS. IN ADDITION...A WEAK 1009 MB SFC LOW JUST E OF COCOA BEACH FL EXTENDS A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF WATERS BUT IS MERELY PROVIDING A WIND SHIFT AND PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT NE FLOW TO DOMINATE THE GULF WITHIN 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES E OVER THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
ATLANTIC...
...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH IS SPREADING OVER THE W ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 22N BETWEEN 70W-80W....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Fri Apr 15 2005 12:58 AM)
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Katie
Weather Guru
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Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
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Mitch - great website!
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Katie, I have to agree with you. Mitch, great job on your weather station and web site. You can count on me to use your site all summer down here in Indiatlantic. Again great work.....Weatherchef
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