Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Pardon the slightly off-topic post, but it concerns the future of the field of meteorology in general and prediction of hazardous weather events on the federal level to a much greater extent.
For starters, please see this article from the Palm Beach Post:
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/news/epaper/2005/04/21/m1a_wx_0421.html
Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania has introduced legislation to effectively terminate the mission of the National Weather Service as a whole, reducing it to a data-mining agency for the private-sector. I'm all for private-sector competition, but there is no precedent in any field to eliminate a task of the government under pressure from the private sector; it is up to the private sector to provide a service the general public desires and will pay for, improving upon what is publically available, not to complain when they do not get their way.
As a meteorologist, I can tell you that this proposed legislation negatively impacts the field in every imaginable way, with the only benefits realized in the private sector's checkbooks. It affects everyone, from those at the top providing the service to local television meteorologists and their forecasts to the general public looking for a simple, accurate forecast. People fail to realize how much the government provides that even the private-sector companies cannot live without; they also fail to realize how much more accurate and precise the governmental forecasts are as opposed to those from the private sector. The impacts upon the academic sector -- the group that provides the greatest benefits to hazardous weather prediction and understanding, yet alone daily weather prediction, would be huge. Entire sectors of the academic sector would cease to exist, notably those that go towards improving these forecasts.
An accord can be reached between the two sides and is probably the best hope for getting anything productive accomplished in any future meteorological endeavors. This legislation is not the way to go about it. If you are interested, I urge you to contact Sen. Santorum with your thoughts as a member of the general public at http://santorum.senate.gov/public/; from there, click on Contact Information on the left sidebar and choose how you would wish to contact him. Contacting your own Senator/Congressman would not hurt either.
Mods -- please feel free to move this if necessary, as I understand that it is slightly off-topic. But, I felt the visibility would be greatest here and it is a topic that impacts a lot of what this site is built upon as well.
Thanks...
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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I hope that this bill does not pass even the commitee.If passed it will be the end of boards like this one and a monopoly of a private firm of all related to weather.
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Beaujolais
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 20
Loc: Kenner, LA but displaced in VA...
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I hope the hell that doesn't pass for a vast number of reasons. They should not touch this at all. Once again they are over-stepping themselves and want to control yet something else. I do not even think that a petition against this matter would do any good. They can just kiss my butt!! I am going to hope beyond hope and pray immensley that this is not even considered at all any further than it has already!!
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Great post Clark as always. Without that infro, I would have missed it all together and not been able to voice my opinion. Sen.Santorum will hear from me thats for sure as will my Florida State Senator and Congressman. Cycloneye and Beaujolaise I agree with you guys 100%. I would think that these elected officals up on the hill should be more concerned with other issues starting with protecting our children from predators and sex offenders in their states instead of screwing around with our weather information highway.
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Ryan
Unregistered
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that freaks me out man..what are the chances of a cat 1-2 and the chances of cat 3-5 hitting the island..im curious :confused: [color:blue] [/color] ..thanks..i apreciate it.ryan
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm not moving it, clark. that's main board material.
i'm not worried for one, don't think the bill will pass. for one the article noted that it's too vague. people are too used to being able to get weather information for free.. the government historically has provided that. Accuweather, and their like will just have to adapt and innovate.. even if their claims of the government undercutting their market are true. on the other hand, by limiting the free flow of information to the public from a service our tax dollars pay for, the NWS/noaa role would seem redundant.
it's kind of ironic though... the position i'm taking is to favor the NWS/noaa.. a division of the department of commerce.. to limit a private sector market. the thought is that the overall benefit is free, useful information that will promote economic security. charging money for things like that only benefits the people selling it... other markets that don't want to pay up will be at greater risk.
HF 1722z26april
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Quote:
that freaks me out man..what are the chances of a cat 1-2 and the chances of cat 3-5 hitting the island..im curious  ..thanks..i apreciate it.ryan
The water up here can only support a strong tropical storm (at the highest water temp) but's that not to say we can't get a strong hurricane. We have, and history will repeat itself. If a hurricane were to theoretically track up here, you would need one heck of a trof digging down into the east coast, or some other freak weather event. Also, by the time the storm would be up here there would have to be some extra tropical transition of some sort, unless it was racing up here at 60 mph, either way both situations are not good. So you can obviously deduce from this, that there is a much higher likelyhood of a a low intensity tropical feature coming up here then a strong one. The probabilities I do not know...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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i'm at home attm so i don't have proper access to all li hurricane data...i will post more on this later this afternoon...but as an fyi, and to further confrim keith's response, our water temps, even at peak in early/mid september, cannot support greater than a cat iv...that being said, li has never ever seen anything stronger than a cat iii...and that would be the 1938 li express...which was moving at 70 mph , the fastest ever forward moving hurricane...i iwill shoot you a link to the suny stony brook study on this when i get back to the office, which includes an awesome storm surge projection graphic
we do occasionally see cat i's and some rare cat ii's...
gloria '85 was our last cane
floyd '99 (i met cantore at point lookout during this one) was our last close brush
charley '04 did give us TS winds and the remnants of , also '04, were no picnic either
bob '91 did a detour off the coast of montauk was a bad one, but spared us...
as far as probabilities...they are the same every year...slim to none...we're due for a cane about every 25 years but we could get two in one year and then none for 50 years
i'll do a detailed analysis of current conditions at some point in the next month which will analyze factors which could lead to a greater potential for landfall up in our area...
i'll also give you a "doomsday" scenario for nyc/li in which a cat ii or iii can sneak into ny harbor and flood the subways and close the bridges...
that's all for now...more when i get back to the office
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Paul
Registered User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Bonita Spring, Florida
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Yep.. This is a serious issue that we will have to confront again even if it does not pass.. Here is the link to all of the people on the senate committee for contact information.. Senator Nelson is clearly against the Bill..
http://commerce.senate.gov/about/membership.html
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Paul
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Office building, web address and telephone numbers
Ted Stevens - Alaska
http://stevens.senate.gov/
Hart 522 202-224-3004
John McCain - Arizona
http://mccain.senate.gov/
Russell 241 202-224-2235
Conrad Burns - Montana
http://burns.senate.gov/
Dirksen 187 202-224-2644
Trent Lott - Mississippi
http://lott.senate.gov/
Russell 487 202-224-6253
Kay Bailey Hutchison - Texas
http://hutchison.senate.gov/
Russell 284 202-224-5922
Olympia Snowe - Maine
http://snowe.senate.gov/
Russell 154 202-224-5344
Gordon Smith - Oregon
http://gsmith.senate.gov/
Russell 404 202-224-3753
John Ensign - Nevada
http://ensign.senate.gov/
Russell 364 202-224-6244
George Allen - Virginia
http://allen.senate.gov/
Russel 204 202-224-4024
Daniel K. Inouye - Hawaii
http://inouye.senate.gov/
Hart 722 202-224-3934
John D. Rockefeller IV - West Virginia
http://rockefeller.senate.gov/
Hart 531 202-224-6472
John F. Kerry - Massachussetts
http://kerry.senate.gov/
Russell 304 202-224-2742
Byron L. Dorgan - North Dakota
http://dorgan.senate.gov/
Hart 322 202-224-2551
Barbara Boxer - California
http://boxer.senate.gov/
Hart 112 202-224-3553
Bill Nelson - Florida
http://billnelson.senate.gov/
Hart 716 202-224-5274
Maria Cantwell - Washington
http://cantwell.senate.gov/
Hart 717 202-224-3441
Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey
http://Lautenberg.senate.gov/
Hart 324 202-224-3224
E. Benjamin Nelson - Nebraska
http://bennelson.senate.gov/
Hart 720 202-224-6551
Mark Pryor - Arkansas
http://pryor.senate.gov/
Russell 217 202-224-2353
John Sununu - New Hampshire
http://sununu.senate.gov/
Russell 111 202-224-2841
Jim DeMint - South Carolina
http://demint.senate.gov/
Hart 825 202-224-6121
David Vitter - Louisiana
http://vitter.senate.gov/
Hart 825A 202-224-4623
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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The following is the text I sent to all members of the U.S. Senate Comittee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Feel free to copy and edit this content.
Remember, taking a position is meaningless unless you also make a stand. Action is what makes a difference
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Reference: S.786
Location: U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation
Sponsor: Senator Santorum
No vote vigorously urged.
Dear Senator,
Be advised that I am very angry that a bill has been sent to this committee seeking to diminish the capabilities of the National Weather Service. This is a critical service that electronically feeds many commercial and free weather sites around the nation with important and in many cases, life saving information. Seeking to reduce these capabilities for the sake of commerce is unacceptable by any measure. My tax dollars already pay for the collection and dissemination of this data. Forcing me to pay twice; once via taxation and again via commerce is unfair and un-American.
As a weather enthusiast, my experience has revealed the NWS to be the most accurate of weather data available to me. This is especially true considering the eye of three hurricanes crossed just 14 miles south of my home last year. As you are aware, approximately 20% of the homes and other structures in our fine state of Florida were damaged by these storms. Should we tell these people that when danger is approaching, the only way to get critical updates and forecasts is to pay for cable television or a subscription to Accuweather?
I am aware that Accuweather is a constituent of Senator Santorum. I am also aware that Accuweather uses the same government supplied data that I do to prepare their forecasts. How is it even logical to allow any or several corporate entities to have exclusive access to data that “we the people" pay for, so they can turn around and sell this data back to “the people”?
I urge a NO vote on S.786.
Jonathon Grant
Lakeland, FL
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Very good idea . However, I agree with Hank...the bill will never reach the light of day. I wonder how much $$ Mr. Santorum received from his constituent, Accuweather.com to propose this legislation. Please see link:
http://opensecrets.org/indivs/search.asp...4=Y&Order=N
I will say this...I will no longer be using the services of Accuweather ever again. I was always suspicious last year and years before as to why Joe B. and his organization would rip the NWS and TPC on their forecasts...and now I know why. Unfortunately, with MANY other issues this is how our government operates and like it or not that will not change unless they get caught in the act. Can you say Quid pro Quo? oh and it's good to be back everyone! That's my rant for the year. done.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I was over at S2k and came across this by WXMAN57.I brought up in an early post about the warmer SST's in the MDR region.I believe this is going to lead to some long trackers once the season really starts to rap up.Will heres the link
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/florida/
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/Images/naominus.gif
I added these other two sites to for some of the newbies to maybe learn a little more as I have this off sesson or am tring to.
http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/cag/Images/naoplus.gif
Edited by javlin (Thu Apr 28 2005 07:58 AM)
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lysis2
Unregistered
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Excellent recourses, Javlin. I recommend everyone who lives in Florida to take a look at this.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Thanks Javlin! That was a great article for the less educated of us!
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When it rains, it pours...
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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The WMO has made their decisions on which names from 2004 are going out. As expected, the four strong hurricanes that hit the US last year have had their names retired. Colin has replaced , Fiona has replaced , Igor replaces , and Julia replaces Jeanne.
HF 1706z30april
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Steve Hirschb.
Unregistered
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Man, interesting spin at 30N/60W for this time of year.........things to come??
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Mapmaster
Unregistered
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Take a look in the Gulf this morning....that MCS from yesterday is hanging tough. If this were June 1 instead of May1 (or even if it were May 15??)...
MM
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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Wow,May !st and things are heating up in that area. May be an early surprise in the big bend area later in this month? We`ll have to watch and see....Weatherchef web page
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Wow how time has gone by and now we are on the virge of another season.What it will bring is the key question.We must prepare from now to then avoid the last minute rush.Let's prepare for the worse but hope for the best.Good luck to everyone during the 2005 season.I will be watching things to my east as I live in Puerto Rico hoping that all the Cape Verde systems go away from the caribbean.
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