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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Bloodstar
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Re: whats near [Re: Clark]
      #35829 - Sat May 21 2005 08:00 PM

Quote:

No storm out there is the next "perfect storm." That storm coincided with the merger of an extratropical low and a tropical cyclone into a single, extratropical cyclone that later briefly gained a warm-core structure. There's not a whole lot to separate it from a lot of other things that happen out there, or have happened out there, except for the notoriety.

The system at 30N/40W is an extratropical feature. These happen all of the time through the winter and spring months.




I was pondering mentioning the item located 30N/40W a few hours ago, because the models are calling a shallow warm core feature, but looking at the upper level winds headed it's way, it has absolutely no chance of developing (not to mention, the water temp is around 20 deg C.) So I figured there wouldn't be a point in mentioning something that looks cool but is a sitting duck

But now, I will mention it, and I'm sure Clark doesn't need my validation, but yeah, it's got no chance.

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
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LI Phil
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The "Perfect Storm" [Re: Clark]
      #35830 - Sat May 21 2005 08:05 PM

Not to correct Clark, as he is essentially correct anyway, but having read Sebastian Junger's book and the subsequent adaptation onto the bigscreen, i learned much of this storm...here's a fairly terse event of the separate and unique storm systems which all came together to form what was called "The Perfect Storm". No storm is a "perfect storm", but it seemed like a catchy title (supposedly one of the NWS or local forecasters "coined" this term, though he denies ever making this statement on air)...here, then, is that summary:

The making of a 'perfect storm'

On Oct. 27, 1991, Hurricane Grace formed over the warm Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. The hurricane continued to grow over the warm waters of the Atlantic. By late on Oct. 28, the storm's 95 mph winds pushed 10 - 15 foot swells towards the coast of the Southeast USA.

Meanwhile, along the East Coast, the weather on Oct. 28 began to show improvement as high pressure moved in behind a cold front that moved off the coast earlier in the day. Along the eastward marching cold front, a new area of spinning low pressure developed just east of Nova Scotia.

On Oct. 29, Grace moved north along the front toward the stalling low-pressure area. Drawing Grace into its large circulation, the low-pressure system exploded into a major storm as it fed off the temperature difference provided by cold, dry air to its northwest clashing with the warmth and humidity from the remnants of Grace.

But it wasn't until this intense low-pressure area moved west toward the USA and then south and east to a point midway between Bermuda and New Jersey that it reached its maximum intensity. At this point on Oct. 30, sustained winds in the storm reached 70 mph, churning the Atlantic into a maelstrom of 40- to 80-foot waves, as reported by a weather buoy east of Long Island, N.Y. Other unsubstantiated observations reported winds and waves considerably higher, including a 101 foot wave measured by a buoy south of Nova Scotia, Canada.

During Oct. 30 - 31, the storm, still churning over the Atlantic, pounded much of eastern North America from North Carolina to Nova Scotia with waves 10 to 30 feet high. High tides along the coast were three to seven feet above normal, exacerbating the storm's effects. Heavy surf and extreme coastal flooding caused extensive damage along the New England and mid-Atlantic coast. Damage estimates in Massachusetts alone reached $100 million. Federal disaster areas were declared for seven counties in Massachusetts, five in Maine, and one in New Hampshire.Coastal flooding and raging seas raked places from Jamaica to Newfoundland, Canada.

The storm continued to churn the Atlantic for another two days before making landfall along the Nova Scotia coast November 2, 1991. As if its tumultuous life was not already enough, the immense mid-latitude storm evolved into a hurricane again when its center moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Nov. 1. Hurricane hunters dispatched to the storm confirmed the transistion. But the National Hurricane Center decided not to name the hurricane for fear it would unnecessarily alarm coastal residents that had just weathered a major northeaster, as well as confuse people into thinking it might mean another major storm.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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danielwAdministrator
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Anomalies or abnormalities? [Re: LI Phil]
      #35834 - Sat May 21 2005 09:58 PM

From today's 2:05 EDT Tropical Weather Discussion.
"... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR BARBADOS RIDGING WESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE W ATLC. ELY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...UNUSUAL FOR MAY WHICH USUALLY HAS 20-25 KT WINDS COMING FROM THE WEST IN THOSE AREAS. A DRIER PATTERN WILL MOVE FROM W TO E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS SE... WITH MUCH GREATER-THAN- AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN ENDING MON ON JAMAICA AND TUE ON HISPANIOLA THOUGH CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A BIT WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS..."

I saw the High pressure ridge depicted on the Tropical maps yesterday, but didn't really think that much of it. I wonder how this might influence the Caribbean Climatology for the upcoming Hurricane season. Or, will it have any effect at all?


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Clark
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Re: The "Perfect Storm" [Re: LI Phil]
      #35835 - Sat May 21 2005 11:45 PM

I apologize about my post...I'm a little touchy about the subject of the "perfect storm" because it really isn't all that different from what we've seen in many other cases, just with added notoriety, bringing it (unnecessarily, IMO) well into the forefront of the public's minds.

For instance, the first part about the extratropical storm capturing Grace: that's a classic extratropical transition followed by merger. The uniqueness comes in that there appeared to be a blocking pattern over the Atlantic, preventing the storm from continuing east. A warm-seclusion occured -- as evidenced with a warm core at low levels (but not upper levels) -- and the system, over the Gulf Stream, began to transition again into a hybrid-type of storm, with very strong winds (and an eye-like feature) well-removed from the center of the storm. We see the warm seclusion evolution after ET about 1/4 of the time of all ETs, making it not all that uncommon either.

Just my feelings on the matter...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Cycloneye11
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Re: Anomalies or abnormalities? [Re: danielw]
      #35836 - Sun May 22 2005 08:24 AM

Danielw what do you mean when to say the ridge may influence Caribbean Climatology?

Edited by Cycloneye11 (Sun May 22 2005 08:25 AM)


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LI Phil
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Where's my royalties? [Re: Cycloneye11]
      #35838 - Sun May 22 2005 09:11 PM

I just got done watching an outstanding documentary by the National Geographic Channel on Hurricane Season 2004....i don't know if they'll rerun it (I'm sure they will) but everyone should be on the look out for it (I'll also try to find when it will play again).

I know this is slightly off-topic, but since the boards are dead, ima post on the main page...i urge anyone who can watch this to do so, as there was a mobile doppler team which made some fascinating discoveries about the nature of winds within the eyewall....basically they discovered that along with the 'sustained' winds, which are of course quite strong, there are random 'super' (my words) winds which are also contained in the eyewall and which basically can produce damage like that produced by tornadoes (where one building can be totally demolished, yet the one next door is left relatively in tact). I hope this new phenomenon can be much more fully explored as we move forward...really, this was not your typical "weather channel" crapola...this was some serious research and after last year, explains the 'hit and miss' damage we saw so frequently.

in addition...they used the phrase "The Season From Hell" twice...

but i didn't see no credits to LI Phil at the end...oh well...if we can avoid a repeat of last year, i'll let the phrase go out there for anyone who wants to use it...i guess i wasn't the only one who felt this way...

lets at least hope things are quiet until Memorial Day this season...

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Anomalies or abnormalities? [Re: danielw]
      #35839 - Sun May 22 2005 09:17 PM

Quote:

"... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR BARBADOS RIDGING WESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE W ATLC. ELY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS... UNUSUAL FOR MAY WHICH USUALLY HAS 20-25 KT WINDS COMING FROM THE WEST IN THOSE AREAS. A DRIER PATTERN WILL MOVE FROM W TO E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS SE... WITH MUCH GREATER-THAN- AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN ENDING MON ON JAMAICA AND TUE ON HISPANIOLA THOUGH CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A BIT WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS..."

I saw the High pressure ridge depicted on the Tropical maps yesterday, but didn't really think that much of it. I wonder how this might influence the Caribbean Climatology for the upcoming Hurricane season. Or, will it have any effect at all?




I didn't say it Would influence the climatology. I was wondering if it might influence the climatology.
I see that San Juan, PR tied a record high of 95 degrees on Saturday. So the high pressure ridge anomaly is having some influence on the area.
Two things come to mind with a high pressure ridge.
Warm/ Hot temperatures, and normally a lack of convection under the ridge.

I also noticed a few other refences to oddities in yesterday's Tropical Weather Discussion.
"...TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING S AMERICA ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A FAIR SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE WITH CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE ITCZ... MEANING THE WAVE IS EXPERIENCING ELY SHEAR... WHICH IS RATHER ODD FOR AN EARLY-SEASON WAVE ..."
link>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505211716

"...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 13N SINCE THE PACIFIC ITCZ IS N OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W. AN E/W AXIS EXTENDS W TO NICARAGUA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N FROM S AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA..."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505220005

Louis, maybe one of the Mets can give us a little insight into these oddities, and what they may or may not bring with them.

Edited by danielw (Sun May 22 2005 09:20 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Where's my royalties? [Re: LI Phil]
      #35840 - Sun May 22 2005 09:25 PM

OK: I just found the future showings for this program...i don't know if everybody's cable/satellite provider is on the same schedule, but since it's the "National Geographic Channel" they should be...this includes a reairing tonight at 11: 00 (EDT) as well as a few in the next week or two...:

Future Airings:
Explorer, NGC May 22 11:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 25 02:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 28 07:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 29 08:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 29 11:00pm
Explorer, NGC Jun 01 02:00pm

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Where's my royalties? [Re: LI Phil]
      #35841 - Sun May 22 2005 09:42 PM

Sorry to interrupt your post there Phil. I was trying to clarify a post I made last night.
For research on the Doppler Eyewall Winds. You might do a search engine on Dr Josh Wurman at Center For Severe Weather Research .
http://216.241.44.49/
http://www.cswr.org/projects/hurricane/hal2004.php
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2004/dow.shtml
The Hurricane Research Division of NOAA also has some data on landfalling Hurricane Eyewall Winds. Usually from land based radar and the NOAA P-3 Aircraft data.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/

Edited by danielw (Sun May 22 2005 09:44 PM)


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LI Phil
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Re: Where's my royalties? [Re: danielw]
      #35842 - Sun May 22 2005 10:30 PM

That's OK Danny...your info is more important than mine...just for the heck of it, i did a "search" for the first time i used the phrase "the SEASON FROM HELL"...turns out it was Sept. 16, 2004...so...where's my royalties???

check it out...remember what last season was like???

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....=true#Post28568

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Where's my royalties? [Re: LI Phil]
      #35843 - Sun May 22 2005 10:53 PM

They are in the mail.
Sept 16th should be around the time Ivan was spinning up.
And No. All info is important here...at least while NHC/ TPC is quiet! Shhhh, don't say that too loud.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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late spring pattern (repost) [Re: danielw]
      #35849 - Mon May 23 2005 07:03 PM

From HanKFranK:
as far as the pattern this year, there are as usual a few unusual twists... perhaps more so than usual. there is a lot of high latitude blocking and a pronounced longwave pattern right right now. there is a persistent trough and low height anomaly in the east and western atlantic.. recently very warm with ridging in the west. as far as the basin goes, you can have above normal SSTs any day, but basin shear is still much to high to allow anything to develop. there is ridging at low latitudes... around the caribbean and such. a blocking ridge has been migrating westward from the eastern atlantic. with all the blocking at high latitudes, stronger than normal low-height anomalies are in the mid latitudes. i think this pattern will persist into june.. when the westerlies weaken as the summer progresses, if a pattern such as this persists, we'll probably see a hybrid storm or two and odd-tracks for anything that develops at lower latitudes. the late summer pattern, when it becomes stable (probably late july-august) i'm thinking will be some longitudinally reconfigured version of what we had last year. that's only based on SST patterns.. with the anomalous blocking currently in place i'm not sure how it will evolve.. but when it does show up i'm thinking it will be stable.
HF 1841z23may

(Note: original post was moved with off-topic posts on new NWS radar link - see the E&N Forum which was more appropriate.)
ED


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MapMaster
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Special Tropical Disturbance Statement [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #35850 - Tue May 24 2005 11:11 AM

WONT41 KNHC 241449
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT 24 MAY 2005

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER AXNT20 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWDAT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH
edited carriage returns to shorten post length

Edited by danielw (Wed May 25 2005 12:43 AM)


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doug
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Re: LI Phil 5/22/05 [Re: LI Phil]
      #35851 - Tue May 24 2005 12:41 PM

Phil:
I wanted to respond to your comments on the Nat'l Geographic documentary re: vorticities in the eyewall:
We were north of Charlie, never lost power, and were fascinated as the new technology in use by the TV mets (VIPR) broadcast in agonizing slow motion the land fall of the storm. What was most interesting was the shear markers in the radar and the discussion of vorticies riding around the eye wall as the storm hit.
One only needs to look at the damage the Punta Gorda/ Port Charlotte to see the explosive nature of the winds that did so much destruction. Indeed the video we were able to watch on this site also showed that...only a few minutes of very violent winds.
One of the facts that fascinates me the most about that storm was the extrordinary pressure gradient that existed within a very few miles...the pressure differences where the film crew was along I75 about 10 -15 miles from the "center" as the storm came over Pine Island toward the mainland was 20-30 MB higher than the central pressure itself.
One only has to watch video of a tornado to see what was actually going on with Charlie as it came to shore. We all have seen those shots of the core funnel cloud which is spinnig rapidly, when suddenly additional vorticies race outward from the funnel as they spin around the core as well..That must be what was going on.
I have been to Pensacola as well where Ivan's eyewall scraped ashore and the damage there is what I would more traditionally expect in a classic Storm...more straight line oriented, in my opinion.
Fascinating stuff.

--------------------
doug


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ftlaudbob
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interesting [Re: doug]
      #35852 - Tue May 24 2005 01:50 PM

NEW TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXHIBITING PROBABLY THE BEST SIGNATURE SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH A CIRCULATION PRIMARILY IN THE MID LEVELS ROLLING W OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU. BOTH THE BAMAKO AND DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS ABOVE 850 MB AND DOES NOT REACH THE SFC AT THE MOMENT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.

edited carriage reurns to shorten post

Edited by danielw (Wed May 25 2005 12:45 AM)


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DON
Unregistered




QUIET MAY [Re: Lysis]
      #35853 - Tue May 24 2005 01:55 PM

WONT41 KNHC 241449
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT 24 MAY 2005

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER AXNT20 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWDAT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

$$

DON, i certainly don't want to discourage your posting, this identical post was already made (about 3 before yours). during the season, we don't want to clog the boards with these, as they are available both on the "front" page and the links page. if anyone wants to post the latest discussion or forecast, please make it a link! thanks!

Edited by LI Phil (05/24/05 01:02 PM)

edited carriage returns to shorten post

Edited by danielw (Wed May 25 2005 12:49 AM)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: interesting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #35854 - Tue May 24 2005 02:21 PM

Well???Do we have anything at all here?

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Bloodstar
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Re: interesting [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #35855 - Tue May 24 2005 03:51 PM

Quote:

Well??? Do we have anything at all here?




Barring something *very* odd happening, I'm willing to call this a case of the NHC doing a little CYA. There is no reason for the low to develop into anything tropical, but you might be seeing a bit of getting the word out in case something happens that is similar to last year.

It certainly doesn't look like much from the sats...

As an aside, I wonder if this is a piece of energy from Adrian.

Thoughts?
-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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Clark
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Re: interesting [Re: Bloodstar]
      #35856 - Tue May 24 2005 05:01 PM

Mark -- the energy left over from Adrian was carried away towards the northeast after it made landfall. The activity currently in the W Caribbean is only remotely related to the system, if it is even related at all. It's more likely related to favorable conditions for convective development; truthfully, I'm kinda surprised the NHC put out anything on it, considering it's state, but then again...it's probably just a CYA thing for the rainfall more than anything else.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Bloodstar
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Re: interesting [Re: Clark]
      #35857 - Tue May 24 2005 05:57 PM

and wonder I shall no longer have to do... thanks for the info Clark. I was more or less musing, and... being too lazy to look at sat loops to verify *grins*

-Mark

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student


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