javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Thats interesting H2 the SST's in that region are definitly warm enough to sustain a storm or hurricane.The shear above 20' N is tough and has been that way for at least a week now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
I do not know myself if this is what HF and Clark were talking about the other night as the sub-tropical jet.If it is it might be there to stay for awhile maybe they can enlighten us on that.I am not surprised at all by the way things have gone with this system.I am surprised that it might make hurricane strength at best I figured it might go in as a TS.History in the makin pretty neat.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> installed a Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless weather station and the information is on my web page - the anemometer is screwed into the roof trusses so it isn't going anywhere....
as long as your roof isn't 
good work on the info...it is going to be a VERY intersting next couple of days to say the least...
yo adrian...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Javlin -- yes, that is a reflection of the subtropical jet around 20N in the vertical wind shear profiles. Interesting to note that if it can get into what is termed the right entrance region -- think of winds going west-to-east, just south of the western extent of the strongest winds -- rising motion may be enhanced within the storm. At its likely location, that may just add to the precipitation troubles on the northward facing beaches/mountain ranges (as the storm passes).
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Loc: rockledge, fl
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hi there,
I am new to the group and was looking at ther forcast for 54 hours. I am confused as it has some parts of the storm reaching cat 3 status as other parts are lower and higher winds. Is this the wind gusts or is this the storm speed itself??
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=054hr
Mike from Rockledge, florida (brevard county)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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this could easily go into the hurricane history forum, but i'll weight it with some current obs so it fits here...
if you want to see an example of a basin-crosser of the variety adrian may pull, check the track maps from 1949. different season and scenario, but that was a mean hurricane that got the texas coast in early october, after forming east of where adrian originated. the 1961 example of hattie-simone-inga was already given on the last thread. in 1989 a june hurricane named cosme crossed and was reclassified allison... also a bother for texas. the closest we've come since then was rick in november 1997 trying to cross over--more eastward trajectory than the others, further south also--more in line with what we've got now. didn't exactly make it, and adrian may do something similar... though rick was under increasing shear at landfall and adrian will probably have better synoptic conditions at landfall.. slightly. the intensity issue will be decided on thursday when the storm comes ashore. the forecast track is into el salvador right now.. that'll be a first; can't find anything close in the historic database.
clark pointed out the present this evening. the storm structure is such that it can intensify steadily. don't be surprised if adrian is a hurricane late tomorrow. the deeper the storm becomes the faster it will move, so there is a logical limit to how strong it becomes. a further south landfall gives it a slightly higher chance of regeneration.. though more land will have to be crossed, shear will not be as big an issue (still an issue though). also, is very negative, so the backing in the deep tropics trailing the storm will lead to a strong convergence line in central america and the sw caribbean.. more rain, and it will also have to be watched for more development... hypothetically. the center could also reform in this fashion if it weakens too much over land. same vorticity envelope, so i'm iffy on the idea, but there is a precedent (iris to manuel in 2001).
i'm also thinking that the generated ridging and outflow enhancement of nearby upper features is probably a rogue factor the models can't predict very well. hurricane detritus can cause indirect effects and subsequent development in this fashion. it maybe isn't showing in the modeling just yet. due to the strong westerly backing and chaotic nature of adrian's sphere of influence, i'd keep an eyeball on the region as we go into next week.
HF 0537z18may
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That's a great site to use. I'll start with a short version and just maybe one of the mets can finish it out.
First-that's the Tuesday morning 8EDT/ 7CDT, model. Since we are talking about the wind speeds and pressures we will go ahead with this 54 hr model prog.
12Z17MAY2005- wind at 950mb. Now look in the lower right hand corner and you will see the max wind and min pressure for this hour of the Forecast.( 951.3hPa and Max 950mb wind =126 knots)
So we have determined that the Model is forecasting a possibility of min central pressure of 951.3hPa (or mb) and 126.0 winds.
In the Northern Hemisphere the right side of the storm, in reference to it's direction of movement, should have the stronger windfield. In this particular case the is indicating a stronger windfield in the 5 thru 7 o'clock position, or the rear semicircle. I'm not real sure about the reasoning that's being used. Here are my thoughts.
The Southern semicircle is :
In an area of less wind shear.
Most removed from the mountainous topography, ahead of the storm.
Other possibility is that the trof moving in from Baha California has advanced over the top of the storm and is inducing a speed increase over the southern half of the storm.
**HF or Clark, your input is very welcome here.
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Doombot!
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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Is it too late to revise my predictions?
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HanKFranK
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Well.. that's the right semicircle of the storm. It's advancing more to the east, so in this case it's to the south. Maybe that's what it is. I doubt the pressure gradient is tighter on that side, though. Then again, it's the . I've seen that model forecast a storm to intensify over the mountains, 200 miles inland over the Southeast US.
HF 0605z18may
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Loc: rockledge, fl
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What do u guys thing of this lastest discussion?????
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 18 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN UPGRADED AT 18/0300 UTC CENTERED NEAR
10.3N 94.7W MOVING NE 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
A CENTRAL CORE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E-NE OF THE DEPRESSION...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTAINED IN THE BAND
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
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LI Phil
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Quote:
Is it too late to revise my predictions?
according to the rules, you have until 5/31 to get in your "official" totals...
so techically, the answer is, "no, it's not too late". however, don't be pullin' no rabbits (inside joke) and start changing your #s with each and every new storm...
ya'll can do what you want, but if you already went to the mat...always go with your first hunch...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
What do u guys thing of this lastest discussion?????
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 18 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC....
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN UPGRADED AT 18/0300 UTC CENTERED NEAR 10.3N 94.7W MOVING NE 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING CONTINUES TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS. A CENTRAL CORE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E-NE OF THE DEPRESSION...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTAINED IN THE BAND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
This is Not looking good at all!
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Loc: rockledge, fl
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Hey there,
Im not sure what the advisory means in reguard to you saying that it doesnt look good at all? Im still learning, lol
However, isnt their suppose to be a 2am advisory? every 6 hrs ?
just wondering. Im supprised that the local media hasnt caught on and broadcasted this yet.
mike
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
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Loc: rockledge, fl
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What dies it mean by tropical wave? is it just a sea level like wave or is it as atmosphere event? I know what it is but how does it effect a t.s.??
.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 89W N OF 4N HAS DISSIPATED AS IT
BECAME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
ADRIAN.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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at first look of sats this morning.....nice ! looks like could have a hurricane/strong TS by evening...
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE ( ) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE . WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.
( full text discussion available at this following link )
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/180826.shtml
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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radar link
slow, here's radar
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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Wow. Hard to believe the fun is beginning so early. I hope everyone is well. Phil glad to see ya! Pretty excited to see what this year holds for us in FL.
This will be my first of many comments like this:
Thanx to all those breaking it down for all of us who aren't year 'round hobbyists. And thanx for all the great info and links. It really helps!
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.tjua/latest.gif
I fear massive flooding if this big area of convection does not leave rapidly.From may 5 when the rain started over 10.00 inches haved fallen in parts of the island caused by a stationary trough combined with a couple of tropical waves.I hope that what may be left from Adrian doesn't come our way. 
Edited by Cycloneye11 (Wed May 18 2005 12:25 PM)
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nl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 207
Loc: nsb,fl
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hey guys! good morning! looks like we got a big fish on our line. so what are we looking at here? looks pretty big on radar.. i mean you are talking bout rain fall unprecedented and alot of mudslides and flash flooding. this one could be worse than venezuela's floods back in early 80's. so what will looking at here 2 or 3. and how far is these bands gonna stretch if it survives the mountains and gets in the atlantic? 
Edited by LI Phil (Wed May 18 2005 03:48 PM)
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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NL really best not to think in those terms but hope that people seek shelter or have the ability to.The impact is going to be alot rain.I would really be surprised myself to see Adrain go in at anything above 85-90mph myself.What I am interested in is the strength and location of the sub-tropical jet in 5 days.That should keep a tight leash on the storm next week.
Like to add UKMET is still bullish on its intensification going the others have backed off some.Then you have the on the Carib side going bullish giving Presidente Castro a Memorial Day present.
Edited by javlin (Wed May 18 2005 12:14 PM)
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