Clark
Meteorologist
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Not too worried about the goings-on in the NW Caribbean. It's another in the chain of "systems" that has bombarded central Florida with rain this week; as with all of the others, the takes it into north Florida somewhere. Also as with all of the others, it'll likely go south of that across the peninsula. Most of the convection there is a result of divergent (diffluent) upper-level flow across the region and isn't tropical in nature.
The convection out there may be impressive, but the system is incredibly sheared and what circulation may be there -- appears to be upper-level -- is to the west of the convection and just south of another upper-low. There is a large amount of dry air behind it, no surface circulation (per QuikSCAT data), and weak model support. Wind shear may lessen somewhat, but that's mainly an artifact of the low extending from the low-levels to upper-levels on top of itself and not indicative of an upper-level pattern conducive to development.
You can occasionally see development from such systems if they persist out of the midlatitude pattern for some period of time over warm waters, but this system is firmly entrenched in the midlatitude pattern, has cold-core structure & origins, and (per models) only a weak signature near the surface -- 850mb -- and none at the surface as of now. I don't really see anything happening with this system unless it can somewhat detach itself from the midlatitude flow and move southeast from its present location, which isn't terribly likely in my view. More likely than anything however, it's just going to provide south & central Florida with more rain in a day or two.
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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With all this moisture hitting Florida lately , I guess we won`t have to worry about the raging wild fires like we had in central and south Florida a few years back eh ?...Weatherchef
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hockeyucf
Registered User
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Loc: Orlando
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Regarding the flow of moisture from south to north (from an amateur and longtime lurker)... Is this pattern in any way indicative of the path that storms are likely to take this season? I'm in Central Florida, and I'm not used to seeing moisture come from the south- it usually comes from the north/west, unless it's an afternoon seabreeze thing, in which case it comes from the east or west.
Thanks!
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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To me, all seems normal in the way things are shaping up weather wise for us in Florida. I`m no expert, just an amatuer like so many of us. I remember what this old Florida flat lander that lived next to me in Palm Beach county said"wind from the south, brings rain in his mouth. Wind from the west , rain at best". At first I thought it was kinda corny, but over the years I`ve been made a believer. Now that I live in central Florida on the coast ,when summer comes we see everyday the east and west sea breeze fronts battle it out over your area and which ever one has the most energy determines which coast gets the thunder boomers which is usally anytime after 3:00 in the afernoon for my coast. Anyway I`m not expert, maybe Clark can give you some more detail, I know one thing, he`s answered all of mind when it comes to weather.....Weatherchef
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Not really. The flow pattern we're currently under isn't one that is condusive to tropical activity really anywhere in the basin. If a southerly flow across the state persisted later on into the season, while conditions became condusive elsewhere to development, then anything that approaches this flow pattern will either be caught up in it -- moving across Florida -- or (more likely) will feel its effects well beforehand and move towards the north and east before reaching the coast. Only time will tell as to what happens, but this sort of pattern isn't all that unusual for this time of year for Florida.
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Quote:
I don't really see anything happening with this system unless it can somewhat detach itself from the midlatitude flow and move southeast from its present location, which isn't terribly likely in my view. More likely than anything however, it's just going to provide south & central Florida with more rain in a day or two.
That's not good news. We've already had nearly 8 inches of rain at my house. My backyard has been reduced to three feet beyond my back door. The last thing we need in Ft. Myers is more rain. 
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Interesting to note that a disorganised and broad area of low pressure has formed there.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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yeah, according to the 530PM there is a weak and disorganised low pressure area in the NW Caribbean. But then you have the following statement in the 205PM TWD:
THE TRIES TO DEVELOP
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL... WHICH IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AS THE MODEL
APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
Hmmmm...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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It's interesting.. still just a max on a trough. has been trying to create a low around there for the last couple of days, and there it is in all it's glory. Very formless right now.. Clark and JK have pretty well covered that. Interesting how the late afternoon worded the situation though.. usually get at least an invest when such choice of words is used. The pattern isn't very favorable, but it should at least persist... time isn't an issue at least.
Further east near the islands that active early wave is continuing to generate a decent signature. A trough to the north should disrupt the deep easterly flow enough for some of its energy to get hung near the islands... for the near future. Later next week globals still have a disturbance in the area. maybe a subsequent wave is feeding into it as well.. not sure. either way, there's been some consistency about this feature for 3-4 days now. the same initial wave is in the far western caribbean by that timeframe and may be the culprit in the other low that starts showing up there by that time... from run to run.
nothing very convincing, but interesting for early june. if we still had the name allison floating around that would almost guarantee a june storm... has worked pretty well for early storms too.
HF 2335z03june
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Lysis
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Loc: Hong Kong
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if we still had the name allison floating around that would almost guarantee a june storm... has worked pretty well for early storms too.
Wait... what do you mean?
it really means nothing. there just happens to be an early storm when the name is used, more often than not. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Jun 04 2005 06:07 AM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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what he means is that certain storm names (allison was finally retired after 2001 I believe) almost always are memorable, but are not damaging enough to be retired. i believe that until last year, every storm named bonnie reached cane status, and i also believe every storm named "gert" (which is on the list for '05) has also achieved cane status...
as you know, every six years, storm names are recycled, unless they are retired...so certain names over the years gain "reputations" if you will for causing mischief or becoming canes, or whatever...and fits that mold...
EDIT: has traditionally produced a June storm...i didn't read HF's post thoroughly, but the above statement still holds true... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Jun 04 2005 12:47 AM)
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Londovir
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Greetings to all again in 2005! It's nice to read some familiar posters once again, though I can't say I'm all that glad to be looking another storm season dead in the eyes.
At least this year I have a Bachelor's Degree under my belt that I didn't have last year - though since it's in Mathematics there's little I can do for anyone unless you have an integral or differential to work out. 
On the positive side, I still have the code for my hurricane hunter recon decoder program lying on the hard drive, and if necessary, I'll do whatever recoding work on it needed to get it working right for this season. I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that I won't need to dust it off - especially because this will also be my first year as a teacher, so I don't need to deal with storm closures, either!
Good luck to us all, and once again, nice seeing everyone on board for another year!
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Londovir
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I'm sure probably most are aware of some new bouys now provided by the NDBC in some really good locations, one in the NW Caribbean and the other in the BOC (I'm not sure 42055 is new, but it certainly was not available very often in the past)... here is the link
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
also the link to the bouys east of the Carribean islands
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Caribbean.shtml
Londovir, your recon decoder program last year was a big hit, good luck on your teaching career. I too was a math teacher, a long time ago in a galaxy far far away, before I got in the rocket testing business..
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Kandis McClung
Unregistered
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I'm looking forward to all the good reports from everyone this year. I have been lurking for some time and love all the good reports in the past. When I don't understand anything on the weather reports on television at least I could come here and read what Jason Kelley or HankFrank had to say (as well as others) and this novice was able to understand what was going on. I must say I did enjoy Tom Terry on channel 9 Orlando. He was great through all the hurricanes and stuck with us the whole time. Keep up the good work and I really like the new website. It looks great.
Kandi
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Looks like our "invest" has become disorganized, and lost some of it's central convection. There is some other open feature by the leeward islands, but there is also some decent southerly shear. A major pattern change has taken shape over the east coast, with a 500 mb ridge now over the east coast, and a trof on the west coast. Right now, teleconnections are not favorable for a "southeast ridge", so for now looks like a wet June for Florida.
BTW, was there a southeast ridge last summer during June and July? I need my memory jogged.
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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Great news about those 2 new bouys that are located well east of the Lesser Antilles because we can obtain data from those bouys as those Systems that are moving westward from Africa get close to them.That 40041 bouy at 14n-46w is the most far bouy that NOAA has east of the islands.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yeah Cycloneye, the bouys east of the Lesser Antilles are as important to you as the bouys in the NW Caribbean and BOC to us in the GOM.. should be a great new addition to giving us more data on developing storms.... I just hope they survive the season
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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru
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Loc: Mobile,Alabama
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Frank
I agree with you. Even us over here in Mobile was lucky that we didnt get the east side of it. I remember Frederick in 79 when it crossed Dauphin Island and went into Ms. We got the brunt of that one. And I still beleive that Frederick was worse than . So we will see where we will stand this year. One has the Ms Gulf Coast at a VERY HIGH risk and Mobile at HIGH risk. So we will see.
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dem05
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Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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'04 De Ja Vu in the Eastern Carribean. You may remember that and followed on the heals of retrograding upper level low pressure systems while tracking through the Carribean. The situation is the same now. Not saying anything will develop, its just a very similar pattern observation...An interesting interaction to watch either way.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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Quote:
A major pattern change has taken shape over the east coast, with a 500 mb ridge now over the east coast, and a trof on the west coast. Right now, teleconnections are not favorable for a "southeast ridge", so for now looks like a wet June for Florida.
Is this really going to last all month?
It's been raining for days! Atleast it is not as hot.
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When it rains, it pours...
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