mikeG
Unregistered
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could there be something in nw carr. sw of cancun? heading north towards GOM. nice flare up of convection. shear appears to be weaking some. water is very warm. pressures appear low in the area.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Good to see on and all again as we enter June 2005.
I thinkthe action SW of Cancun is part of the weakening trough that the mentioned at 11am. Lot of action SE of Puerto Rico too, but conditions are not favorable for either.
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Jara
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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Regarding looking for signs of development or non-development as those of us in weary wet Florida, I have noticed this year that we have not had our usual flock of lovebugs. We usually get a multitude of those little carpaint eaters during the end of May and first of June. I have seen some without partners but they were not enthusiastic. We also get the next Swarm around September. Are the lovebugs missing here in Central Florida because we are not going to get hit, or are they missing because they know something we don't? I look at the birds, bees, and other nature signs to forecast the weather since my observations of them are not terribly mathematical and are more concrete. I know that last year before the storms, in June we all had a mess on our cars. In August, we had , followed by the others.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Notice the and other globals have been latching onto not one but areas of distubred wx in the Jun 9-12th timeframe for some time now. One in the NW Car/E GOM, the other in the vicinity of PR. Specifics are still hasty, and development itself isn't a sure bet from either area yet...but I'd keep a sharp eye on the tropics this upcoming week.
our latest discussion for more details FWIW
http://www.independentwx.com/discussion.html
More likely than not, if there IS development it'll be from 1 system and not the other...simultaneous June storms are about as rare as it gets (nothing's impossible though).
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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I did not say anything but I did notice that this am on the .... agreed... stay tuned. This may be something related to what JK has talked about a week or so ago. Hopefully he and /or Clark will give their take as well.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Jun 05 2005 07:31 PM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Both regions in which these disturbances are pegged are projected by the models to be just south of the subtropical jet and moving northward into its vicinity with time, making any significant development unlikely. More likely than not, assuming a surface feature develops, these will be regions that look more impressive than they really are, featuring a good bit of convection but no real tropical punch. This would be assisted by being in the right entrance region of the jet, generally a favorable region for rising motion (and in a general sense, convective activity). Cyclone phase analyses only pick up the one N of PR and show a hybrid structure at development trending even more so through time.
Both features -- whatever comes of them -- will get picked up by midlatitude troughs and taken towards the north and east.
From continuity & looking at the prog charts, the low off of PR is expected to come from the tropical wave currently in the vicinity of the islands (and just east of an upper-level low/TUTT cell) as that upper low retrogrades to the east and weakens. The feature into the Gulf looks to be an artifact of a broader area of low pressure that becomes "organized" over the vicinity of where Adrian made landfall. Both would quickly become engulfed by midlatitude disturbances after development, if they don't become part of that flow beforehand.
I don't expect any tropical development out of either, but some development might occur....chance of subtropical development maybe with the PR system, if it develops & then manages to stick around in the central Atlantic for some time. It might do that -- but I'd favor development over all scenarios for now, given the forecast evolution of the upper-level regime as of now. Not too keen on the Gulf scenario; it may end up being a repeat of what we've got going on now (and have for the past few days) in Florida, and that's about the best I'd call for on that one right now.
Sit tight, folks. The season will get started in earnest before we know it...but I don't think either of these systems will be the ones that do it. Watch the one near PR, but don't get your hopes up yet...IMO.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm a little more enthused about the east caribbean system personally. the models have been more consistent on it, and the disturbed weather precursor appears to be there now. right now it's nowhere near being something, though... earlier on the visibles you could see the low level easterlies lancing through the convection at a good clip. there does to seem to be at least some of the pattern-induced forcing element needed to get things started, but only the beginnings. a mid level vortmax from continuous convection and a surface trough would be the next step.. creating a place for a low to develop at the southwest corner of the disturbance.. if the models are to be believed that stuff won't show up until tuesday. there isn't a lot of help from , it's weakly negative and not providing the backing these puppies like. i don't look at phase diagrams, but can see 'subtropical' nature it seems to have in that it seems to generate a 500mb weakness around it late next week north of the islands. seems a tad dubious to me (but then we're dealing with a dubious at best feature to begin with). think if anything comes it'll be tropical, unless like clark says it gets up to the north and decides to jet out.
for the west carib feature, it's less consistent and if present will be riding nnw or nw as it nears florida, complements of the upper ridge poised to sit over the mid atlantic going into next week. that would be a shear-kill scenario. noticed that the 18Z run leaves a chunk behind near south florida about ten days out, then kicks it out northeast. clunky evolution on that one right now, not convincing.
pattern may progress again late in the period if the ensembles are to be believed.. eastern ridge weakens and a trough digs in off the east coast. we'll be riding easy if that sort of trick is pulled when the longtrackers are roaming west. but i'd have to say that the westerlies and subtropical jet are already getting muddled... and there's been a tendency to tropical moisture flows out of the caribbean recently. anything down there will probably get pushed towards florida, in any case. not that it matters a great deal in june... june systems are usually rainy and weak.
anyhow, nuff said. we've got what may be an 'on' week (at least probably an invest to watch), and it's just week 2 of the season.
HF 0405z06june
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Toto
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: West Bay, Grand Cayman
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Greetings all!
I watch this forum with great interest, as I live in the Cayman Islands, on Grand Cayman. I don't really know much about meteorology, but I can always add my two cents worth of eyewitness accounts and local reports when a system passes my way! BTW we still have something like 1,700 people without power since , according to a recent newspaper article.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I am no rocket scientist, nor meterologist, but this morning at 6:08am EDT, the weather feature north of the islands, is looking very suspicious. I know that there are troughs, shear and other hidden clauses in the contract, but the first thing I see this morning is at least spinning in two different directions. It is in a nice warm place, and having travelled in that area in the past by cruise ship, I know that there is a lot of nice water for it to sit on.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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Does appear that anything that does develope will move towards the northeast.
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Derek Sutherland
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 11:30 am update is looking at development near Pueto Rico with a NW movement and favorable conditions - - - any thoughts??
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Conditions are marginally more favorable, as the suggests. The upper low that has been present in the area is moving westward, leaving the area in a region of shortwave (localized) upper-level ridging. As a result, though, the diffluence enhancing convection is starting to lessen. Kind of a chicken and egg type thing, yeah, but we're still looking a few days down the road. Depending on which model you look at, per JK's blog post & some analysis, some develop the W Carib feature, others develop the E Carib feature.
Things are slightly more favorable to see tropical develop in the E Carib right now than they were yesterday, but I still believe non-tropical (likely subtropical/hybrid) development, once the system starts, is more likely. This has some support from the globals. We'll see what happens, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
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thanks for the clarification - - Just got my stumps ground and not really in the mood to track 24/7 just yet - - praying for shear!!!!
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Since the WCarib feature will have more immediate effect on my location (more rain) I am prone to focus there. As I said Friday persistence in these things is not a good sign, if you don't want development, and persistence we have and according to sat pics some form of circulation. IF NOT FOR THE SHEAR, (SW-NE) we may be more concerned with that than we are.
However the pattern is changing; the trough is breaking down, ridging is showing signs of developing, at least to the east of this feature...
The ECarib feature will not effect US mainland no matter what develops...
so I caution to watch the WCarib.
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doug
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mysticalmooons
Weather Watcher
Reged: Tue
Posts: 30
Loc: rockledge, fl
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Do you think that this system might be trying to develop since they are sending a recon flight to investigate? Another interest is a large area of convestion to the sw carribian near central america. Large concentrated thunderstorms
What u all think?
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
1030 AM EDT MON 06 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JUN 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-010
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 17.5N AND 67.0W FOR 08/2000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The possible investigationyou reference is the ECarib feature. The interest in these items stems from persistence in the WCarib, and better signature in the ECarib, meaning that if something tropical develops it will do so more quickly there, than in the W Carib, where the weather features effecting development are more sharply defined; i.e. a narrow sharp trough/ upper low to the nw over the western Yucatan and a very narrow ridge between that upper low feature and the one just ahead of the Ecarib feature, which upper low is just south of Hispanola.
I think the trough to the nw of the Wcarib feature will erode over the next few days and the ridge will build and if a low develops it will come from the tropical flow coming off the northern SA coast and will likely deepen near Hondouras to the point where there may be an invest there in a few days.
But that is just me thinking out loud.
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doug
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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As if we don't already have enough rain hitting us in Central Florida + other parts, looks like we might get a double punch. On the west coast, we have the moisture that justs keeps feeding and feeding off the moisture near Cuba; and from what I caught on the ABC Action News noon report, there may be a system *trying* to develop off the east coast by the weekend. Mr. Shattuck did NOT say it would develop, he just said it's something that we "will definitely keep an eye on and will definitely bring more rain our way."
Since the weekend's 5/6 days away, it will be interesting to see what actually happens.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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As the water temperatures are already hovering over 80 degrees it would only take a decrease in sheer for something 'tropical' to develop; but it sounds as if we are in it for the rain- at the very least!
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________2024 Forecast: 28/14/8________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Ryan
Unregistered
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hey, yea this is all really interesting..this is gonna be a very anxioius summer huh?
haha well i was wondering if theres a chance of any hurricanes hitting long island this year..and if not, then is it even possible?
they say that one hits long island every 10 years. i have been here for 16 years, and not one hurricane. I guess im that lucky.
Oh yea and also, i hear that this year into next year the hurricane change has incresed from last year
can someone please correct me if i'm wrong, thnaks a bunch.
||Ryan||
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2005:
-10 named storms
-6 hurricanes
-4 major hurricanes
p.s.-also, i am predicted a busier NC and SC season than a florida season.
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