MikeC
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Noon June 8th Update
Pressures are dropping and it may be that a depression is forming in the Western Caribbean now. Recon is scheduled to go out there this afternoon to check.
We're definitely watching. Folks along the Northern and Eastern Gulf Coasts will want to watch this system over the next few days.
See Clark's Blog Entry below for more information on this system.
11:46AM Update
Focus is turning toward the Western Caribbean now, as Jason Kelley comments in his blog below. The outlook now brings attention to this area, which is near the Western Caribbean and over the Central America area. If it persists expect to see a recon flight out there tomorrow. It'll be worth watching.
Western Caribbean Chances for Development into a Tropical Depression/Storm
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-------------]
Original Update
There's an early interest spot out in the Caribbean right now, toward the northeastern section. It has a little bit of potential to develop, but I wouldn't expect into much. It has a slight window it could become a depression in over the next few days, but it's not all that likely. Worth watching, however.
Pulling up the old development potential scale it would be:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]
Nothing has developet yet, of course, but the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico at the very least will be seeing a decent rain event. We'll keep watch. Personally I don't think these areas ill be our first development of the year.
Event Related Links
Animated model plots of new disturbance area
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
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LI Phil
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Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Maybe Luis can give us some "up close and personal" reports should anything become of this...the 5:30 does make brief mention of this area, so i suppose it does bear watching:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS WEATHER REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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Yo Mike, Thanks! I am waiting for the latest model runs. The last runs (18Z) are rather tight for an early system like this...
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Cycloneye11
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Yes Phil if anything comes our way as a storm or a hurricane during the season I will be here reporting and right now let's see what occurs with this system south of Puerto Rico.Storm Cooper what do you mean about tight for an early system?
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Storm Cooper
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The paths are rather tight on the last run as opposed the the normal "all over the place" runs. It just seems odd to me they are as close as they are for this one. Nothing I would be alarmed about... the next runs will probably be going in every direction 
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Cycloneye11
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Oh ok I agree with that.The models haved been in a flip-flop status with all thiis mess in the Caribbean in some runs they show 2 lows one in the western caribbean and the other near Puerto Rico and in other runs the second low is lost so let's follow what trend the models go for the Caribbean in next runs.
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Storm Hunter
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is this the same system the is picking on? GFDL noname80l 2005060612 looks very weak, not sure why there is even a run....
but then you look at the (later model) gfs 2005060618 and wonder what's that south of panama city in 110 hrs. (The small blue blob).....to me that's looks to be some good surf in the area come next week
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 07 2005 03:35 AM)
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HanKFranK
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this stuff should be around to watch all week. slow evolution, probably an invest.
HF 0551z07june
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Bloodstar
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Well it can be around all week, but tell the model run to stop bringing anything into my back yard. Though I still think the odds of anything coming from this is extremely low, maybe 1 in 5? perhaps lower odds? and the odds that anything forming would shoot north and split the Yucatan Channel is pretty low as well. But, better to be alert than to be shocked. it's something to watch, but I'll be more interested how things lookin 48 - 72 hours.
If something forms in the eastern Caribbean, I would suspect the storm would be hybrid, particularly if it forms north of Puerto Rico. The odds of 2 storms in June? low. The odds of 2 storms at once?? Even lower. Anyone want to try to think of the odds of that one? Heck has there ever been 2 storms at once in the atlantic Basin in June?
Ok, enough rambling
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Rabbit
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June 23 1968
TS Brenda east of Florida
TS Candy near Texas
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Orlando, FL
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It appears that if this thing does become something, it'll move up into the Alabama?Florida line. Of course, it's hard to predict where something is going when it doesn't even exist yet.
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wxman007
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New is looking at this area that the was latching onto...recon is headed in tomorrow if it keeps going.
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Jason Kelley
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WXMAN RICHIE
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Happy Hurricane Season 2005 everyone!!!!! Glad to be back and ready to go. Looks like we need to look towards the W. Caribbean now rather than the NE area.
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area. Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system on Wednesday.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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doug
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Well I have been bullish on this WCarib thing since Friday, but really yesterday since the persistence became a concern.
The trough to the NW has seemed to retrograde to the west, and ridging is occurring between that and the ULL over Hispanola. The trough to the west is acclerating the evacuation of the NW quadrant so it could actualy enhance development now as the SW-NE shear is north and west of the developing system. It looks broad and is just now emerging off the N coast of Honduras. It has a better chance today than it did yesterday. These are just my observations.
Doug
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doug
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scottsvb
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We currently have a system over central america and the western carribean today that could become our first tropical storm or even hurricane of the season.
Like Jason said, recon will fly out Weds to collect data to send to the TPC/NHC. I feel when they get there the system will be full out in the w. carribean and a depression nearing TS status. Hard to pinpoint right now the exact evoloution. Models on average make this a TS by Weds night and take it thru the Yucitan Channel by Thurs night and into the S or SE Gulf by Friday morning. Some show its pressure down to near 992mb. After this they diverage but only slightly. Most take it near NO. Couple further east.
Right now for me I see this becoming a storm later Weds evening or night. Movement will be this N to near the western tip of Cuba by Friday morning. I also see it nearing hurricane strength. After that it should cross into the SE Gulf. Right now its too early (more then 3 days) to pinpoint landfall but I agree with the models. Bermuda high aloft will stretch w accros the SE U.S. and Florida and the system should steer N around and W of the ridge. Any weakness late in the week of this ridge could bring it into Florida or the panhandle. The strength should be near hurricane strength but I see dry air moving into the system and erroding the w and sw side by later friday into saturday. Dry air is currently over Mexico and Texas and this should slide eastward. So currently its a tough call.
My 3day forcast is a strong Tropical storm near hurricane stregth in the SE Gulf by mid day Friday. scottsvb
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HanKFranK
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there's still model support for some near/northeast of the lesser antilles later on, but since last night the feature strung from el salvador up to cuba has indications of weak low level turning and ridging aloft. is talking about recon for tomorrow, and the earlier model runs the suddenly began creating a dubious low east of belize have been calling it repeatedly for a couple of days now.. so this is a climo victory and probably an early bad call on my part. it has 'the look' of a formative tropical system right now.. we've seen that briefly on previous features this season, but not with the evidence stacked like it is right now.
the components are there... the northward building ridge in the models is a tad unsettling.. but with an upper ridge poised over the mid atlantic anything that develops won't be a quick and out NE storm across cuba.. it will run up into the gulf. scott's explanation of its potential evolution looks sound... i'm thinking slower evolution. things could be very interesting later this week.
HF 1836z07june
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Orlando, FL
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In the last few frames of the , it look like there's a low developing above Puerto Rico and just sitting there. Is this a sign of another system?
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Kevin
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Finally we got something to watch that actually has a decent chance.
The disturbance in the W Caribbean has really come around since this morning. Last night the Western Caribbean was filled with mostly cloudiness and a few showers. I was very skeptical of yesterday's and runs that were showing a rapidly developing tropical storm by late Wednesday/into Thursday. Now I'll buy into those a LITTLE more than I previously was.
The current CIMISS shear analysis shows a patch of moderate shear to the immediate north of the thunderstorm activity. Over the next few days, the gradual building of the Atlantic ridge should allow for the shear to relax some. The shear forecast is what shows this happening, with a significant decrease in shear by Friday. At the very least, we know that upper-level winds will become more favorable as the week grows on. This should allow for slow development, but perhaps not as fast as what the and are showing.
It is too early to make exact track predictions. By the end of the week, however, the building of the Bermuda High should allow the system to move in a NW to N direction. My current thinking is a Mississippi to FL. Panhandle landfall.
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FlaMommy
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Wow to think we could have a June storm!!! Anyways, what would the conditions have to be in order for the storm to make it to Florida? Or should I say is there a chance it will become a little fishy in the sea?..I'm definetly keeping myself updated on this site now, gotta get ready if we have something to worry about. Thanks all you guys out there keeping all of us updated, I know it puts my mind to ease  
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"Haven't thought of a witty one lately"
Edited by FlaMommy (Tue Jun 07 2005 06:08 PM)
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mbfly
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Loc: Mobile, Alabama
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Hi Y'all !! Glad to see everyone's here for another exciting year of hurricane chit chat.
"It is too early to make exact track predictions. By the end of the week, however, the building of the Bermuda High should allow the system to move in a NW to N direction. My current thinking is a Mississippi to FL. Panhandle landfall."
Uhhhhhh, should I cancel my GOM off the Alabama coast fishing trip for this weekend ????
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