Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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first
is it me, or is the system S of PR by S America rotating?
the low
second
look at the same loop
the Central America low center is in Honduras near the border, and appears to be moving NNE and should be over water tomorrow
even though this was never initially classified, this is much larger than Adrian was and the shear is not nearly as strong
i just noticed another system near 22N/52W that kind of reminds me of TD4 in 2000
Edited by Rabbit (Tue Jun 07 2005 06:24 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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What I see are low features in both areas, and models do hold the eastern feature back a bit, but throw something up a day or so later than the western feature.
The Honduran feature is not stacked for rapid growth: the broad surface low seems to be north and west of the middle levels, but it is all over water now.
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doug
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Cycloneye11
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 70
Loc: San Juan,Puerto Rico
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050607 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050607 1800 050608 0600 050608 1800 050609 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 85.5W 17.6N 85.2W 19.1N 85.1W 20.6N 85.6W
BAMM 16.0N 85.5W 17.2N 85.6W 18.1N 85.7W 19.1N 85.9W
A98E 16.0N 85.5W 16.2N 85.5W 16.6N 85.5W 17.2N 85.2W
LBAR 16.0N 85.5W 16.5N 85.4W 17.4N 85.5W 18.5N 86.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050609 1800 050610 1800 050611 1800 050612 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 86.5W 25.7N 88.6W 30.0N 90.2W 34.8N 90.6W
BAMM 20.3N 86.3W 24.1N 86.9W 28.7N 88.0W 32.9N 88.8W
A98E 17.9N 84.5W 19.1N 82.9W 20.3N 82.3W 19.4N 82.5W
LBAR 19.7N 86.9W 22.7N 88.6W 26.3N 89.5W 29.3N 89.8W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The models are starting to plot the Western Caribbean area.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Those numbers of course are based on Sat images and are pretty consistent with the visible appearance of the system. Looks like more rain to me.
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doug
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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it says 'tropical depression invest' but there is still no invest on the site
is it behind?
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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look at this WV shot of the GOM states and carrb. based on model runs, think we will see TS in a 48-72hrs in the NW carrb. .....my prediction for landfall northern GOM....new orleans to apalach. on weekend
going to be a busy weekend up here in nw florida if it gets going..... remember i think floridians have until the 12th for tax free hurricane supplies....
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 07 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARRIBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 08/1645Z
D. 17.5N 85.5W
E. 08/1830Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 09/0230Z
D. 18.0N 85.5W
E. 09/0400Z TO 09/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HOURLY FIXES.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE
BK
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Jun 07 2005 08:52 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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I'm sure there is a page where ALL the model tracks are put together, but I can't remember where to find it. If anyone can help I would surely appreciate it!
Thanks!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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There is/was a Navy site with the current investigations listed...but I can't seem to find it - anyone have it bookmarked?
Nevermind I found it - www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Edited by Domino (Tue Jun 07 2005 08:48 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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This is only MHO, but when I look at that satellite loop posted, it appears that some of the energy near NW Florida is beginning to lift to the north, which would mean a more poleward pull on what *may* be our first (ugh) TD of the year. It looks like that dry air is being replaced with moister air in the GOM, and if you look at the bottom part of the loop, it appears that the low could possibly be pulled around what I would call (in a very scientific sense) a "loop-de-loop".
Again, my OHO which could be completely incorrect. I can predict this with almost 99.9% certainty: someone along the eastern GOM is gonna get soaked, named or no-named. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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I agree that this system (named or unnamed) will become a rain event for the Florida peninsula this weekend.
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Quote:
Uhhhhhh, should I cancel my GOM off the Alabama coast fishing trip for this weekend ???? 
That's not a good question at this time. Wait and see if something even develops, and then wait until the system is within 48 hours or so of affecting you. That will be decision time in regards to your fishing trip.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well i for my part think we will see something develop in this region during the next 24 to 36 hours. There has been persistent disturbed weather for days, the sea is warm, and the upper-level conditions should improve. Add to that the improving satellite signature of the system, which shows some organisation of the circulation off the northeast coast of Honduras, and i think the folks in the NW Caribbean should be closely watching it.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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is there some reason the still has not put an invest up for teh NW Caribbean?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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its up
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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is it me, or does it look like the center has developed on the coastal border of Nicaragua and Honduras?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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indeed, visible imagery would seem to suggest the centre maybe forming just offshore of the Honduras / Nicaragua border...
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Still gotta get the trough in the Gulf of Mexico to weaken or lift out some. What is happening is that it is digging southward into the Bay of Campeche, though it is narrowing in scope & extent east-west. Narrow troughs are better for intensification -- in fact, narrowing of a trough such that it matches the scale of the tropical cyclone is one of the big factors for rapid intensification of mature storms -- but this one is likely too close still to the system.
An upper-level low has formed over the Yucutan Peninsula over the past few hours. Another, weaker one is located between there and Tampa. What we'll probably need to see for development is for the trough to cut off and retrograde westward in the Gulf, allowing the ridge to build in. The narrowing of the trough is a sign this might be trying to happen. Wind shear in the region is stronger than it was 24hr ago, but weaker than 12hr ago. The core of strongest winds to the west is weaker than it has been in some time, though.
Give it time, and we might see something. Still at least a day and probably closer to 2 away, though. Recon going out there tomorrow is a good sign; the fact that the second one in the report is listed as "cyclone" doesn't mean a whole lot as of yet. It shows they anticipate that it might develop, but those naming classifiers don't mean a whole lot until something actually happens.
For more -- see the blog article on the front page. As I mentioned to Jason earlier, I'd give this one about a 60% shot at organizing into something. At the very least, it's something to watch...but not too closely! We'll have plenty of time to do that once it develops & with other storms later in the year.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MikeG
Unregistered
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wouldn't want to see this mm5fsu 2005060700
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MikeG
Unregistered
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clark, is this what your talking about as for winds (250mb Height ) and the ridge movements?
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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true, that would give us a hurricane crossing western Cuba friday into saturday, then approaching the central-eastern Gulf coast by the start of next weak! Interestingly that is the run from 00Z, so if it holds true, we should see a definite low pressure system (TD?) br wednesday evening.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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