Clark
Meteorologist
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Rabbit -- that would be a fair assumption to make, especially early in its lifecycle. All depends on how much that shear weakens, IMO, to see whether or not it becomes more symmetric...and whether or not it intensifies beyond a weak area of low pressure.
As an aside, there's nothing really new to note on the 10:30pm . Two distinct masses of convection are present: one near the low itself over land, and another west of Jamaica. It's the former that bears watching, of course, but it'll take some consolidation of the whole feature before we get a lot going there (if we do at all). I'd feel better about this thing's short-term chances if it were a bit further east, but it is June after all...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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HanKFranK
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still a broad low, but there is definitely the look to this system... probably in a day or two. i think that whatever develops starts in a NE drift, and turns nnw over time. got a hunch that most of the models have it developing too fast and moving a little faster than it will.. should only pick up speed later in the forecast period. right off the bat my thought is that it goes towards the florida panhandle. there is precedence for a severe hurricane originating in the area in early june (alma in 1966 for one), but typically systems forming down there stay under shear and don't make more than minimal hurricane if that. wasn't 1966 listed as an analog year for this one... hmm. SSTs in the NE gulf won't support a strong hurricaner.. warmer near the central gulf but shear will likely be higher over there. also looks like the storm will be moving along, so not one of those loitering, extreme flood events.
interesting of note, globals also showing a suspicious feature somewhere in the northern caribbean or the atlantic to the north of there... 5 days out or so. there's a sharp feature setting up and then collapsing in the runs also... probably what will keep it in check. not a well-supported event, but around the weekend there may be something else worth watching.
HF 0418z08june
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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I guess I was in the wrong forum.I thought no one was paying attention.Pressure is still dropping in both systems.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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Bloodstar
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is it just me, or is the models initializing the storm too far west???
and is that going to make a difference? (of course it'd make a difference, but how much?) (and of course according to the TWD it's initialized too far east.... ugh)
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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danielw
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Don't feel bad. I am looking at a small difference in the locations. Models, TPC/NHC, and my eyes.
At this point in time it doesn't make a lot of difference. If it spins up, it will make a difference. I have a few inches of rain that need to be made up in the year-to-date rainfall, but that's All.
Tropical systems...Mother Nature's air conditioning? 
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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For my first post of 2005, I'd just like to make a quick observation.
After the year that was 2004, for us to be actually watching a system with the potential to turn into one of those ________'s on June 7....really really really makes me dread the next 6 months.
And I'm 200 miles inland.
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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Kevin
Weather Master
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On this board, we'll gladly watch any one of those _________'s at any time of the year. 
Hopefully not too many of them cause problems though...
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Quote:
is it just me, or is the models initializing the storm too far west???
and is that going to make a difference? (of course it'd make a difference, but how much?) (and of course according to the TWD it's initialized too far east.... ugh)
-Mark
Actually, I think I'm seeing a NE drift with the carib. area of disturbed weather. Either that or the broad turning in the area is playing tricks on my eyes.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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This is very cool!!!There is really alot of stuff happening for this time of year .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html WOW!
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 08 2005 05:32 AM)
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Bloodstar
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Quote:
Actually, I think I'm seeing a NE drift with the carib. area of disturbed weather. Either that or the broad turning in the area is playing tricks on my eyes.
I don't think you're hallucinating at all... But what's causing the seeming drift? (if you look carefully at the visible caribbean loop, you can see the apparent low center around 15.5 N 85W or so) I'm not sure if the low center is moving east, but certainly the storms have had an eastward movement over the last 8 hours or so. Will it drag the low pressure east initially? or will the storms become decoupled from the low and new storms form around the center, and it moves north as the models predict....
-Mark
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student
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Storm Cooper
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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javlin
Weather Master
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Lookig at the floater this morning on the VIS looks like a rotation at least at 18'N85'w.Maybe my eyes are playing tricks not a full cup yet either.Last few frames more N.Have to wait and see what recon has going later.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
gotta scratch that looks like a little vortice that is racing N actually
Edited by javlin (Wed Jun 08 2005 12:16 PM)
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Looking at the WV images this morning, it appears to me that there is a lot of dry air in the GOM. Anyone else see that? I wonder if that's supposed to change because I would think if dry air gets into that low it would kill any development. Also...I think I'm looking at the right area, but is the tropical low almost due south of the western tip of Cuba? If it is, it looks to me as if there is a little twisting motion to it. You can just see it starting on the last few loops. Or maybe it's been there the whole time and I wasn't looking at the right spot!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Well that is a confusing mess, but it is developing...the main circulation I think is supporting the newest build up of convection near 16/84 just north of the coast and that is all drifting North. There is another swirl about 17/87, but that is not it.
The cluster of storms around where I think it is gives this a very good core to start with. All the stuff North and east is being thrown off by this circulation.
If the LLC is there we probably have a depression.
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doug
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Recon goes out after noon today; should be there a couple/few hours after that. Organization looks fairly good this morning, but it is a broad area of low pressure slightly elongated east-west north of Honduras. Focus in on that area moreso than the band of convection to the west of Jamaica, even though conditions may be slightly more favorable there than here. A slow drift to the system is likely over the next day or so, followed by movement northward towards the Gulf.
More to come on the blogs...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Coop,
Do you have a link for this?
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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11:30
"SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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The system seems to be moving east- north east. Does anyone else see this? When should it turn north?
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________2023 Forecast: 20/10/5________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Wed Jun 08 2005 03:54 PM)
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KN4LF
Unregistered
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The Florida Daily Weather Discussion #2005-26 has been published at
11:00 am EDT on Wednesday June 08, 2005 at http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm .
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Quote:
The system seems to be moving east- north east. Does anyone else see this? When should it turn north?
The system itself isn't moving NE...the blowoff and thunderstorms are...the core rotation is displaced well to the south and west very near the coast of Honduras...in fact in the last few sats you can see new convection firing in this area. The NE motion you see is the ventilation of the system by the jet to the north, not the motion of the circulation.
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Jason Kelley
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